The Challenges Posed by Price Volatility in the EU Dairy Sector. Declan O Connor, Dennis Bergmann &...
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Transcript of The Challenges Posed by Price Volatility in the EU Dairy Sector. Declan O Connor, Dennis Bergmann &...
The Challenges Posed by Price Volatility in the EU Dairy Sector.
Declan O Connor, Dennis Bergmann & Michael Keane
Agrarian Perspectives XXIV.
and
25th Annual Conference of the Austrian Society of Agricultural Economics
September 16th 2015, Prague1
•Price Volatility– What it is?
•Price Volatility–Causes and Consequences
•Some challenges
•The Response
Public policy
Private Risk Management
•Conclusions
Overview
2
Definition of Price Volatility
Price volatility is a directionless measure of the extent of the variability of a price.
(Gilbert and Morgan 2010)
Note that sustained high or low prices (inadequate) do not constitute volatility.
Volatility - implies unstable prices that are hard to predict
3
EU Dairy Commodity Prices (€/tonne)
Jan-
90
Sep-9
2
May
-95
Jan-
98
Sep-0
0
May
-03
Jan-
06
Sep-0
8
May
-11
Jan-
140
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Butter SMP
4Source USDA.
EU Butter One Month % Change
Jan-
90
May
-91
Sep-9
2
Jan-
94
May
-95
Sep-9
6
Jan-
98
May
-99
Sep-0
0
Jan-
02
May
-03
Sep-0
4
Jan-
06
May
-07
Sep-0
8
Jan-
10
May
-11
Sep-1
2
Jan-
14
May
-15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
5
EU Butter One Month % Change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
6
±5%
±10%
EU Butter Three Month % Change
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
7
±7.5%
±20%
1500200025003000350040004500
1990-2006 2007-2015
€/Ton
neMid 90% Range Butter
€2,596 to €3,443
€2,214 to €4,070
Seasonal and Cyclical Behaviour of Farm Gate Milk Prices
• Much of the huge price volatility in recent times is attributed in large part to the seasonal and cycle components. Bergmann, D., O’Connor, D. & Thummel, A. (2015)
• This means that volatility can nearly be fully explained by these model components which suggests that much of milk price volatility is endemic to the dairy industry.
• Suggest that policy interventions and strategies should be countercyclical.
9
Consequences of Increased Price Volatility
• “Normal” volatility is desirable. It reflects changes in supply, demand and policy and provides price signals to facilitate efficient reallocation of resources.
• Extreme volatility is undesirable with many adverse consequences
10
Extreme Volatility – Adverse Consequences
• Cashflow/Planning (leads to variances)• Investment• R&D• Substitution/ Supply Reduction
Buyers (ingredient and retail) prefer to do business with suppliers providing stability, price and volume (retail prices are sticky)
11
Causes of Price Volatility
• Economic Fundamentals, - Demand, Supply
• Policy Change- E.g. Luxembourg Agreement (2003)
• Market Speculation- Hedge Funds, Index Traders
Who are the biggest speculators today?
12
Causes of Price Volatility – Economic Fundamentals
• Unique Characteristics of demand for Dairy (and Food) Commodities i.e. Inelastic Demand– Modest scarcity causes prices to be bid up to very high levels– Modest surplus causes prices to fall to very low levels to clear
market– Modest scarcity or surplus are frequent occurrences (weather,
disease etc.)
• Impact further accentuated by low stocks
• Production takes a considerable time in agriculture and dairy in particular
13
The Role of Public Policy in Dairy• The “Old” CAP
– Intervention Buying – Export Refunds– Import Levies– Subsidised Consumption– Aids to Private Storage
• 2003 Fischler Reform – Reduced intervention (price & volume)– Direct Payments
• 2008 Health Check – Phasing Out of Milk Quotas
• 2012 Milk Package (apply until mid-2020 with 2 reviews)– Written Contracts– Producer Organisations– Interbranch Organisations– Milk Market Observatory 14
The CAP Towards 2020
15
• The end of the quota regime (April 2015). • Provision of a safety net (“public intervention" private
storage aid). • Export refunds can be used in cases of market
imbalances.• Access to crisis fund (€400 million p.a.)• Specific ad-hoc measures in case of emergency or
significant market disturbances such as the so-called School Milk Scheme.
• The Commission may grant aid for skimmed milk and skimmed-milk powder intended for use as feeding stuffs or to be processed into casein and caseinates.
• Income stabilisation Tool• Mutual Funds
Hammock to Safety Net to……
16
The Challenges• Milk is a complex product• How do we bridge the gap between milk and
product prices?
17
EU Farm Gate Milk Prices Jan-09 to June-15
18
60
50
40
30
20
10
60
50
40
30
20
10
Data
The Challenges Cont.• A long supply chain
– Who takes the risk?– Transfer it to third party?
Farm Processor FurtherProcessor
Retailer Consumer
19
The Challenges Cont.
• Back to Back Contracts
Farm Processor FurtherProcessor
Retailer Consumer
20
The Challenge• Price is only one element of income/profit
– Yield– Inputs
Milk Processor FurtherProcessor
Retailer Consumer
Note US dairy policy has moved from direct payments to margin insurance.
Inputs
21
Private Risk Management Options
• Forward Contracting• Futures Markets • Options • Over the Counter (OTC) Contracts• Insurance Products• Mutual Funds
22
Milk and Dairy Farmers are not Homogeneous
Fat contentProtein content
Apparent Yield (kg/head)
Apparent milk output per farm (tonnes)
Bulgaria 3.68 3.28 6,924 46.0Denmark 4.26 3.52 7,592 1292.8Germany 4.12 3.41 8,963 367.8Ireland 3.94 3.39 7,882 290.0Latvia 4.08 3.26 5,438 64.5Lithuania 4.16 3.25 6,651 32.8Netherlands 4.40 3.53 7,265 630.1Poland 3.98 3.21 7,769 64.2Romania 3.79 3.27 5,532 2.6Slovenia 4.14 3.37 8,005 65.3United Kingdom 4.03 3.26 8,254 921.1
23
Is Margin Insurance Feasible?
24Dairy Farm Gross Margin with Coupled Payments per Member State 2011Source: EU FADN – DG AGRI
Insurance Cont.
• Data.• This will take time.• Do we want a “Common” Agricultural
Policy• Choice between direct payments and
subsidised insurance?• May distort market signals
25
EEX/EUREX Cumulative Volumes (as at July 31 2015)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Co
ntr
acts
Totals: Butter 7,879 SMP 2,229 and Whey 1,0062015: Butter 1,425 SMP 362 and Whey 232 26
Exchanges Comparison
• EEX 55,570 tonnes V NZX 273,200 (end July)
• EEX 5 Tonne contracts V NZX 1 Tonne• NZX WMP Options 59,305 (to Aug 21th)• NZX WMP ~ 80% (Futures and Options) • EU OTC Market • EEX hedging products not milk
27
Basis For German Farm Gate Milk Price (€/100 kg of milk).
Jul-0
9
Nov-0
9
Mar
-10
Jul-1
0
Nov-1
0
Mar
-11
Jul-1
1
Nov-1
1
Mar
-12
Jul-1
2
Nov-1
2
Mar
-13
Jul-1
3
Nov-1
3
Mar
-14
Jul-1
4
Nov-1
4
Mar
-15
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
€/10
0/ K
g
28
What is required?
• These options are based on risk sharing or risk transfer so they will require
–Data–Education–Support
29
Conclusions• Volatility in EU dairy is an established
phenomenon.• As well as being more volatile prices are
reaching new highs and lows and the nature of milk prices has changed.
• Volatility affects the entire supply chain.• Dairy farmers are heterogeneous.• Unlikely there will be a policy led solution
in the short term.
30
Conclusions• However there are gaps
– Data, Education, Critical Mass
• Solutions should be voluntary but nobody has a veto.
• There is a role for communication and co-operation.
• Reward is competitive advantage– Early mover advantage (GDT/NZX?).
• Learn from others (USDA subsidised trades, data, education).
31
Thank you
Declan O Connor
Cork Institute of Technology
32