The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Competitive Intensity

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Academic Program Selection and Assessment

Choosing Which Programs to Start, Stop, Sustain, or Grow

March 2017

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Framework for Evaluation We suggest screening all programs on four market factors.

Student Demand

Employment Opportunities

Degree Fit Competitive

Intensity



Student Demand



Intensity


Why Worry About Competition?


Why Worry? Traditional educational segments are growing less than 1% annually.*

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Population (in Millions)

US Population 1950 to 2015 Actual

2015-2060 Estimated Younger than 15 15-64 65+

CAGR: 0.4%

CAGR: 0.1%

CAGR: 2.9%

Projections

*Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

65+

15-65

Under 15


2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Completions (Millions)

Completions by Sector (Millions)

Private for profit

Private not-for profit

Public +3%

4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1

+1%

-5%

Annual Growth

Rate

Total

Private For-Profit

Private Not For-Profit

Public

+1%

Why Worry? Overall, traditional higher education is not growing–or shrinking.

Source: Gray Associates, 2011-2015 IPEDS National completions for all CIPs, all award levels.


Winners: Competency-Based Education But, some institutions are taking share and growing.

3,987

5,895

8,313

10,822

13,186

48%

41%

30%

22%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Western Governors University Completions

Source: Gray Associates, 2011-2015 IPEDS completions for all CIPs, all award levels.


What Markets Do You Serve?


Brand search volumes can highlight your served markets by state.


1637.88

116.26

40.38

26.82

23.08

18.04

12.78

11.34

9.47

7.05

6.59

6.05

4.99

4.36

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Indiana ��Illinois

��Kentucky ��Michigan Ohio

Florida Georgia

North Carolina ��Virginia

��Missouri

Google Search Volume by State Example: Ivy Tech Community College

Searches: 000s



§  Keywords Used –  Black Hawk College –  BHC Illinois –  Black Hawk College Illinois –  Black Hawk College IL –  Black Hawk College Moline IL –  Black Hawk College tuition

Google Search volumes by county highlight served markets.



§  Regional and national market definitions are often used for online programs.

Distance is a common way to define markets for on-campus programs.

29%

57%

74%

83% 92%

95% 97% 98% 98% 99% 99% 99%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Miles from Student’s Home to Campus

Students: Distance to Campus

Market Definition: 35-Mile Radius

Percentage of Students


Schools often serve more than one market, state or region.



Competition


Competition: Foundational Data


IPEDS Completions IPEDs provides completions by location, school, program, and degree level.


Completions reveal past market share, but anomalies are common.

IPEDS Completions

12%

53% 55% 61%

6%

6% 9%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015

Competitors by Share of Completions Registered Nursing in Chicago

University of Illinois at Chicago

Resurrection University

Loyola University Chicago

Purdue University-Calumet Campus

Chamberlain College of Nursing-Illinois

CIP Code 51.3801, Registered Nursing


Not-So Local Competition IPEDS misses national online institutions that compete in your local market.


Non-Title IV Competition Some schools operate without Title IV funds–or submissions to IPEDS.


Number of Courses

MOOCs

§  The number of MOOC courses is growing exponentially. §  Combined, Coursera, edX, and Udacity have over 30 million users. §  This is roughly equivalent to the total enrollment in degree-granting institutions. §  Their enrollment may be a bell-weather for popular courses.

The hype has died down, but MOOCs continue to grow, outside of IPEDS.

Source: Chart data is from Class-Central, https://www.class-central.com/report/moocs-2015-stats/

MOOC Trends Number of Courses Offered

4,000 4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0


Competitive Intensity


Competitive Intensity Data: Completions per Capita

Completions per capita for a program, relative to the same programs in other markets, is a useful indicator of market saturation.


Competitive Intensity Data: Cost per Inquiry

§  Inquiries for Management Science are very expensive: $114 each. §  Finance inquiries are lower-priced: $47.94.

Higher cost per inquiry is an indicator of more intense competition.

Philadelphia Bachelor’s Degree Programs


Can you afford to compete?

PPC Competitor Research: Registered Nursing Programs

Source: https://www.ispionage.com – Competitor Ad Research Tool for the keyword “Registered Nursing Programs”


Student Demand Data: Student Inquiries

Share of student inquiries can create a current view of program size and trends.


Competition for Inquiries Share of Inquiries helps distinguish market growth and decline from program health.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Share of Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

Market Inquiries College A Inquiries College A Share


Scoring for Competitive Intensity

§  Specifically, percentiles help you set thresholds for scoring.

Percentiles provide context for the numbers on programs and markets.


Scoring for Competitive Intensity

§  It compares a program in your market to the same program in 100 US markets.

Completions per capita is a useful metric for market saturation.


Program Size and Competition

§  Change in median program size is also an indicator of saturation.

Median Program Size helps define program potential.


Competitive Intensity Metrics: Interpretation

We currently track three measures on competition and competitive intensity.

National Competitive Metrics for Program X



Student Demand



Intensity


The degree granted for each program should enable graduates to win jobs.

Degree Fit

25%

43%

22%

8%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60%

No College

Certificate

Associates

Bachelors

Graduate

Medical Assisting % of Completions

5%

10%

9%

53%

23%

0% 20% 40% 60%

No College

Certificate

Associates

Bachelors

Graduate

Accounting % of Workforce


Program Evaluation: Competition

§  Before you can evaluate competition, you need to define your market.

§  IPEDS has lots of good historical data on competition.

–  IPEDS identifies most competitors and their size and growth.

–  Median completions helps to estimate the size of potential new programs.

–  Change in median completions is an indicator of saturation.

§  But, IPEDS is dated and missing certain competitors:

–  National on-line

–  Non-Title IV

§  More current data is available, including Google and Inquiries

§  The degree for the program should enable graduates to compete for jobs.

Competition is a critical element in program evaluation.


Market Share Higher Education is not growing. To grow, you must take share.


Cooperative Process Good program decisions take more than numbers…

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To contact Gray Associates:

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[email protected] 617-366-2836

The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Competitive Intensity

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