Thayer Security Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region
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Transcript of Thayer Security Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region
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AsiaPacific
ProfessorCarlThayer
Presentation to Lemhannas
2November2009
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AsiaPacific
Region
seo na
Divided
states:
China
Taiwan
&
Korea
SouthEastAsia
Internalconflicts
Territorialdisputes
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America&
Europe
to
the
Asia
Pacific
Newstructure
of
international
decision
ma ingisemerging
U.S.moralauthorityandcapitalistmodelof
developmentunder
challenge
Chinasrisemostconse uential lobaltrend
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AsiaPacificwideSecurityIssues
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seo
na
an
n a
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China:U.S.DefenceSpending
14
ComparisonofDefenseExpenditures2005(US$bn):Chinas2006DefenseWhitePaper
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Y lin Naval
Base,Hainan
I lan
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Processingand
enrichment
Development
of
longer
range
ballistic
missiles PastproliferatorofWMDtechnology
Unpredictableroguebehaviour
Secessionissue
and
regime
stability
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Lon standin ethno
nationalistconflict
Mala Muslims
Sharpescalationin
violencesince
2004
Increasedjihadist
rhetoric
Internalaffair
non
interference
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Southern
Philippines
Jemmah
Islamiah/alQaeda
remnants
AbuSayyaf
Group,RSMRogue
MILF
commands
24
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Pressureon
ethnic
minority
cease
fire
groups
Imprisone pro emocracyactivists
AungSan
Suu
Kyi
Isnationalreconciliationpossible?
RoleofUS Chinaandotherexternal owers
ASEANandASEANCharter
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Internationalcriminal
syndicates
Piracy
Illicitdrug
production
and
smuggling
Peoplesmuggling
NaturalDisasters
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power
poseasecuritydilemmatoregionalstates
. .
WMDproliferationthemostseriousthreat
NorthKorea
leadership
secession
uncertainty
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SoutheastAsia
beset
by
severe
internal
Territorial
disputes
threaten
ASEAN
cohesion ASEANCharterandMyanmar
Whatt eofsecurit architecturebest
addressesinternal
conflict
and
its
spillover
effects?
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SecurityIssuesin
theAsia
Pacific
ProfessorCarlThayer
Presentation to Lemhannas
2November2009