T3-P59

Insights into future technologies for nuclear test verification:

Technology Foresight at the CTBTO Patrick Noack, Luis Gaya-Piqué, Amit Jain, Georgios Haralabus, Matthias Auer, Patrick Grenard

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this poster are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission. SnT 2013

We are open to new ideas and suggestions for our

Foresight activities, you may also suggest new

technologies which may be relevant and which we

could include in our Knowledge Base of the

Foresight explorer.

In any case please contact our team via e-mail:

foresight@ctbto.org

Technology Foresight

Technology Foresight is an iterative process of information gathering and vision

building in support of a strategic planning exercise, which seeks to engage with

external experts. Technology Foresight includes developing technology scenarios,

assessing a list of future technologies, develop roadmaps and work closely with the

scientific community across the world to deliver usable products for future

verification systems and methods.

Find out more on http://FORESIGHT.ctbto.org

The Figure above serves as an explanatory note of

the taxonomy that lies at the heart of the Foresight

Explorer.

• A taxonomy to assess future technologies and

technological needs in an objective and

comparable manner.

• Describe each technology and technological

need as a unique and custom-generated “card”

that displays all the relevant information.

• Reach out to experts in the field to evaluate

technologies and needs.

• View and assess in Foresight Explorer.

A Taxonomy to assess and categorize technological needs & solutions

In order to efficiently and effectively categorise potential

future CTBT verification technologies as well as

technology needs, other processes, concepts and ideas, we

have developed a dedicated taxonomy. The purpose is to

provide an objective and shared understanding of the

different categories thereby enabling experts to review and

analyse hundreds of potential technologies.

For each assessed technology, a card is generated; which

we display in Foresight Explorer and which offers

powerful visualisation of the taxonomy’s parameters for

each technology, enabling a quick overview and database

exploration.

Technology Roadmaps

Interact with Foresight Explorer

(see poster T3-P18)

Maintaining the relevance of the verification system

The performance must be consistent with the scientific and technical

state-of-the-art to continuously ensure effectiveness and maintain

trustworthiness.

Promoting cost efficiency

New technology contributes to reducing maintenance and operational costs.

Protecting investments and avoiding obsolescence

Effective stewardship of the verification system requires a technology base

that is concurrent with partner organizations and providers.

Technology Watch

The purpose of the “Technology Watch” activity is in the first place to provide

inputs for future technology scenarios as part of CTBTO’s Technology Foresight

exercise.

Among other means Bibliometric Analysis is an ongoing effort to assess literature

to identify emerging trends of research with potential future application for

improvements in nuclear explosion verification. Bibliometric Analysis is funded under the EU Council Decision IV – CFSP/2010/036/CTBTO IV

Example: Infrasound Technology Roadmap

Four key operational capabilities:

• IMS Station Performance

• IDC Station Processing

• IDC Network Processing

• Performance Monitoring and Testing

The Infrasound Technology Roadmap (ITR) builds upon

recent technical achievements to prioritize technical topics

in the context of these capabilities and guide effort and

investments within the Roadmap’s seven year timeline.

A draft version of the Roadmap is currently under

evaluation at the PTS with the intension to be brought

forward for review by the international infrasound

community who contributed at the initial phase of the

Roadmap through a Request for Contributions.

On your left hand side you can see an example of a bubble

chart in the seismic field.

This chart was generated by a co-word-analysis that is based

on the terms in the titles and abstracts of the publications found

for a topic. All terms in the titles and abstracts are extracted

and the number of occurrence for every term is being analyzed.

A relevance score is calculated. The importance of a term for

the topic or network is symbolized by the size of a bubble in

combination with the size of the font: A bigger bubble in

combination with a bigger font is a symbol for a term with a

more frequent occurrence. The diagrams do not have any axes.

Terms that often occur together in the original documents are

also arranged in closer proximity on the map.

Finally, the terms are clustered: different colors indicate

different subtopics. Terms that are in the same cluster indicate

to belong to a similar thematically context.

Objectives

Objectives

Reach consensus about a set of needs and the

technologies required to satisfy those needs

Provide a framework to plan and coordinate

technology development (7 year horizon)

Capability driven approach Foresight

Global association

Conflict resolution. Amplitude-range scaling laws for

improved decision

Seismo-acoustic data fusion at

detector or event level

Valid association improvement

Reduce analysts workload – 50% target of valid

automatic associations

Refinement of

climatology

Procedures for incorporating Met

data into operational systems

Propagation path refinement based on Met data and gravity

waves parameterization

Refine travel time and azimuth

deviation estimation

Improve phase identification and

source localization

Example: Detail view of the IDC Network Processing

Capability roadmap component