Sustainable intensification: the fine line between myopia ... · Sustainable intensification: the...
Transcript of Sustainable intensification: the fine line between myopia ... · Sustainable intensification: the...
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Sustainable intensification: the fine line between myopia and utopia
Prof. Martin van Ittersum - Plant Production Systems group, Wageningen University
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What is agriculture?
Human activity in which energy
from the sun is used for the
production of sugars through the
growth of plants in soil
This is true for all forms of agriculture:
traditional and modern
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Plant production
22-02-12 © Wageningen University & ISRIC 4
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Production-ecological principles & practice
Defining factors
•CO2
•radiation •temperature •crop genetics
potential production
Limiting factors
•water
•nutrients (N,P,K)
limited production
Reducing factors
•weeds
•pests •diseases •pollutants
actual production
yie
ld g
ap
yield increasing measures
yie
ld level yield
protecting measures
P R O D U C T I O N S I T U A T I O N
Breeding and bio- Techno-
logy
5
Slide from Harrie Lovenstein
– Wageningen University
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1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Ara
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a (1
09 h
a)
Po
pu
lati
on (
bil
lions)
Year
Looking back: 1960-2010
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1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Ara
ble
are
a (1
09 h
a)
Po
pu
lati
on (
bil
lions)
Year But conditions in 2016 very different than in 1960
7
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Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Gra
in y
ield
(t
ha
-1)
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R.Korea
China
Indonesia
India
Rice
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
2
4
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12Wheat Maize
China
India
Northwest Europe
Brazil
China
USA-irrigated
USA-rainfed
Slack in cereal yield increases?
Cassman, 1999; Cassman et al.,
2010; Grassini et al., 2011
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Slack in cereal yield increases?
FAO and Van Ittersum et al., in press
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The green revolution in Asia and Africa
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Trends arable land area – Sub-Saharan Africa (2002-2012)
Country Arable land area 2010 in million ha
Arable land area increase 2002-2012 in million ha
Burkina Faso 5.8 1.4
Ghana 4.6 0.7
Mali 6.4 1.8
Niger 15.2 1.8
Nigeria 33.0 0.2 (ns)
Ethiopia 14.6 5.0
Kenya 5.5 0.6
Tanzania 11.6 4.9
Uganda 6.7 1.4
Zambia 3.5 1.0
Total 107.4 18.7 (17%)
Source: FAOSTAT
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Increase in global crop areas
Grassini et al., 2013
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1970 2010 1990 2030 2050
Grain equivalents per year (billion tonnes)
10
5
0
Looking ahead: Pathways to increase availability
Reducing demand
Filling production gap
Avoiding losses current production capacity
after Keating et al., 2014. Global Food Security
MOOC: Growing our Future Food: Crops
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14
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Population growth
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Demand versus income (per capita)and
versus income (per capita)
Tilman et al., 2011 (PNAS)
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The need for extra food is very region-specific
So, it is crucial to know where production can be
increased and how
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Production-ecological principles & practice
Defining factors
•CO2
•radiation •temperature •crop genetics
potential production
Limiting factors
•water
•nutrients (N,P,K)
limited production
Reducing factors
•weeds
•pests •diseases •pollutants
actual production
yie
ld g
ap
yield increasing measures
yie
ld level yield
protecting measures
P R O D U C T I O N S I T U A T I O N
Breeding and bio- Techno-
logy
18
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Yield gap analysis
Photo: Ken Gillerr
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Global Yield Gap Atlas
Major food crops in the world
Global protocol with local application
Local data and evaluation
Strong agronomic foundation
Co-financed by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
www.yieldgap.org
With University of Nebraska, ICRISAT, AfricaRice, CIMMYT and many regional and national partners
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www.yieldgap.org
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www.yieldgap.org
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www.yieldgap.org
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Actual and potential water productivity
www.yieldgap.org
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Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group
Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln
GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA
to be published in PNAS
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Growth in population and cereal demand - 2050
Country Population
2010
(million)
Population
2050
(million)
%
Population
increase
Burkina Faso 16 41 256
Ghana 24 46 192
Mali 14 45 321
Niger 16 69 431
Nigeria 159 440 277
Ethiopia 87 188 216
Kenya 41 97 237
Tanzania 45 129 287
Uganda 33 104 315
Zambia 13 44 338
UN, 2012 and IMPACT, 2012 (and 2015)
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Current self-sufficiency cereals SSA - 2010
Source: IMPACT model
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www.yieldgap.org
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West and East Africa aggregated
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Yield progress in SSA (maize)
FAO and Van Ittersum et al., in press
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Historical maize yield increases (kg/ha/year)
Country 1961-1990 1991-2013
Argentina 68 131
Brazil 25 122
China 107 56
Ethiopia n.a. 79
France 130 61
Ghana 0.7 17
India 15 48
Indonesia 43 130
Kenya 26 6
Nigeria 21 39
Spain 168 196
USA 112 111
FAOSTAT
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Increasing cereal yields from 20% to 50% of Yw:
doubling of annual yield increases
80% increase in cereal areas
Increasing cereal yields to 80% of Yw:
annual yield increases of ca. 130-140 kg
Increased cropping intensity and irrigation will help
A regional approach to food self-sufficiency seems essential, but even then...
Conclusions – to reach self-sufficiency
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The consequences in terms of:
cereal self-sufficiency and/or
area expansion (GHG, biodiversity!)
will be huge!
If a successful intensification is not achieved ....
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And what about Sustainable intensification?
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Reducing GHG emissions and/or intensity
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Efficient, or better, circular use of finite resources
Weekly TimesNow, 21 September 2009
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1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Western Europe
Year
Kg h
a-1
yr-1
P Uptake
P application
P application and P uptake
Sattari et al., 2012 - PNAS
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1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Africa
Year
Kg h
a-1
yr-1
P Uptake
P application
P application and P uptake
Sattari et al., 2012 - PNAS
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Western Europe
Africa
Regional differences
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Africa W-Europe
Asia
A learning curve!
Sattari et al., 2012 - PNAS Sattari, Bouwman, Giller and
Van Ittersum, 2012 - PNAS
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Experimental farm
De Marke
Research (demonstrate) whether:
it is possible to produce milk at a ‘normal
production intensity: 12,000 kg milk/ha’
without violating environmental targets
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clay
peat
sand
loess
DM
16 pilot farms
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Surplus and efficiency of
phosphorus (P) at whole farm level
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Eff
icie
ncy (
%)
Su
rplu
s (
kg
P h
a-1
)
Surplus C&O Surplus NL Eff. C&O Eff. NL
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The challenge: tunelling through
Zhang et al., Nature, 2015
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Intensification versus ‘ecologisation’?
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Cassman, 2002
Yield and input use
A success story: USA cereal production
Yield potential Soil quality
Precision agriculture
Ecological Intensification (Cassman, 1999)
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Resources/ investment
Att
ain
able
pro
du
ctiv
ity
Poverty traps
Inefficiency and pollution
‘Intensification’ ‘Ecologisation’
Eco-efficiency possible
Context
Co
nte
xt
‘Ecologisation’: How to maintain productivity while reducing dependence on fossil fuels?
‘Intensification’: How to increase productivity in a sustainable, affordable way?
Towards an ecological intensification of world agriculture - Tittonell (2013)
Intensification or Ecologisation?
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Rien Nijboer
© http://www.riennijboer.nl/
Thank you for your attention!
Future harvest