Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

18
Office Market Report & Forecast S U M M E R 2009 Colliers International | Greater Toronto Area

Transcript of Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

Page 1: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

Office Market Report & ForecastS U M M E R

2009Colliers International | Greater Toronto Area

Page 2: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

We are pleased to provide you with a copy of Colliers International Summer

2009 Office Market Report & Forecast. It is our hope that you find this report

and market forecast informative and valuable. The report’s intent is to provide

a current view as well as deeper insight into the dynamics of the Greater

Toronto Area office market.

Colliers’ Toronto research team has employed a variety of statistical analysis

and forecasting models to produce this report, in an effort to provide greater

market intelligence. We continue to examine commonly used metrics in the

commercial real estate industry, in context with broader macro-economic

metrics.

For those of you who would like to continue reviewing our statistical tables,

we would be more than happy to provide those to you upon request. You can

find our contact details listed in the back of the report.

As always, we look forward to your questions, feedback as well as discussion of

your real estate needs.

Best Regards,

John Arnoldi

Managing Director,

Office Practice Group

Toronto

Page 3: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

Toronto Econom

ic Overview

Toronto Economic Over v iew

Desperately Seeking Stability

Canada’s domestic economy continues to be buffeted by waves of uncertainty, circling the globe in the wake of the global credit

crisis of 2008. While Canada still has relatively strong economic indicators, no nation is an island and we are by no means

immune from global events. While Canadian fundamentals are solid, the decrease in international demand for commodities,

reorganization of our manufacturing sector, the rising loonie, and the increased risk aversion of the financial sector make for a

very unstable economic climate.

Recent months have seen resurgence in commodity and energy prices, and with it the Canadian dollar. The dollar has risen

approximately 20 per cent in the second quarter of 2009, up over $0.90 USD in tandem with oil prices, which have doubled

since mid-February. This is a double-edged sword for Canada as these factors, combined with falling Chinese exports - which

will eventually precipitate lower imports, a major Canadian profit generator - create a recipe for further macro-economic

instability.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is feeling the squeeze from such instability. According to the Conference Board of Canada,

total GTA GDP is expected to fall by 1.6 per cent in 2009, led by an expected 5.2 per cent drop in manufacturing GDP.

Financial, insurance, and real estate sectors are forecasted to avoid this trend by posting a relatively flat 0.8 per cent GDP gain

over 2008. Unfortunately for GTA’s economy, this virtual zero growth is a long way off of the 2006 and 2007 levels of 5 per cent

and 4.7 per cent respectively.

This pullback is already affecting the Toronto office market through lowered demand for space due to staffing cutbacks, disposal

of underutilized space, and postponed growth plans. GTA’s unemployment rate is also currently at a 12-year high of 9.1 per cent,

30 basis points lower than the United States, 10 basis points lower than the entire European Union, and almost 100 basis points

above Canadian levels. Combined employment numbers for office users in the GTA show percentage losses in Q3 2009, and

in Q4 2009 six basis points and 52 basis points respectively. Office employment in the GTA is an indicator that we watch quite

closely from the Conference Board of Canada forecasts that stable job growth will not occur again until the fourth quarter of 2010.

Until there is macro-economic stability at home and abroad, the GTA office market will be in a state of uncertainty, offering

both opportunity and challenge for owners, occupiers and real estate developers.

During the review of market performance, it is determined that real GDP and office employment correlated well with the GTA

office market indicators. Given the strength of the relationship between the economic indicators and office market indicators,

this information was utilized in Colliers’ forecast model for the GTA office markets.

Economic Indicators2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2F

2009 Q3F

2009 Q4F

2010 Q1F

2010 Q2F

2010 Q3F

2010 Q4F

2011 Q1F

2011 Q2F

2011 Q3F

GTA GDP at Basic Prices (Mil. $ 2002)

222,285 219,040 217,408 216,955 217,257 218,199 220,741 222,603 224,730 227.120 230,478 233,133 235,779

% change 0.27 -1.46 -0.74 -0.21 0.14 0.43 1.17 0.84 0.96 1.06 1.48 1.15 1.14

GTA Unemployment Rate 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.7

GTA Employment (000s) 2,907 2,924 2,902 2,910 2,901 2,882 2,920 2,910 2,911 2,929 2,976 2,997 3,018

% change -0.95 0.66 -0.75 0.28 -0.30 -0.65 1.29 -0.32 0.04 0.60 1.60 0.72 0.69

GTA Office Employment* (000s)

1,145 1,151 1,146 1,154 1,153 1,147 1,162 1,159 1,160 1,169 1,188 1,198 1,208

% change -1.55 0.54 -0.46 0.69 -0.06 -0.52 1.27 -0.25 0.12 0.73 1.69 0.86 0.83

* Utilized in office demand forecast. Source: The Conference Board of Canada, May 2009

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Page 4: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

Ongoing instability and weakness in the economy have worked their way

into the GTA office market. Lagging the business cycle by a number of

months, vacancy has steadily increased since the beginning of 2009. Since

then, GTA vacancy has increased by almost a percentage point to 5.7 per

cent at the end of Q2 2009, or approximately 1.7 million square feet to

levels not seen since Q3 2007. This increase is primarily driven by GTA

West and downtown office markets, both currently characterized by high

construction activity, and new office space soon to be delivered to the

market. As a result, both GTA West and GTA downtown are and will

continue to manage demand problems, as well as an over supply of space.

Recognizing softer market conditions, landlords have started to seek lower

net rent in their space advertisements. Since peak levels observed in Q3

2008 last year, GTA’s average asking net rent has decreased by 6.4 per cent to $17.58 per square foot at the end of Q2 2009.

More notably, landlords have increased the amount of tenant incentives to attract companies looking for space in the market,

or retain existing clients through the early renewal of their lease. This dynamic is putting downward pressure on net effective

rents, which will present tenant opportunities not seen for a number of years.

GTAWest

Downtown

Midtown

GTAEast

GTANorth

Greater Toronto Area Of f ice Mar ket Over v iew

Net Absorption: 1,070,243 Asking Net Rent: $17.58 Net New Supply: 521.777Vacancy Rate: 5.7%

2

Arrows indicate trend observed since Fall 2008.

GTA Historical Performance & Forecast

FORECAST

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

5.7%

$17.58

Page 5: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

Greater

Toronto Area

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Considering Conference Board of Canada’s forecast of GTA GDP and office employment, we conclude that

net absorption of office space will be positive, but at a stagnating minimum. We do not expect net absorption

to return to levels experienced during the last five years for a number of years. However by 2011, net absorption

should regain healthy levels between two to three million square feet per annum.

Over the course of the next two years we see vacancy in the overall GTA market rising to levels between seven

and eight per cent, and average asking net rent falling below $13.00 per square foot in 2010. Technically this still

represents a landlord’s market, however one with more flexible landlords, and an increased number of suitable

options for tenants.

A closer look at GTA vacancy statistics reveals that landlords continue to put office space onto the market, while

companies looking to reduce operating expenses are marketing their own space through subletting unused parts

of their premises. This strategy is often utilized in softer markets, and since the lows in Q3 2008, marketed sublet

space has grown by 68 per cent, up to 1.17 million square feet or 11 per cent of GTA’s total vacancy.

18-Month Vacancy Trend

2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2

2

4

6

8

10

12

91%

9%

90%

10%

92%

8%

90%

10%

91%

9%

89%

11%

Page 6: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

Net Absorption: 285,838 Asking Net Rent: $24.26 Net New Supply: 26,000Vacancy Rate: 4.4%

GTA Downtown

Toronto’s new office towers are close to being delivered to the market, and their tenants are finalizing preparations for their

relocation. This inventory growth of approximately 3.4 million square feet has pushed up availability rates while continuing

to push down rental rates, and will increase vacancy once completed due to lateral tenant moves within GTA’s downtown

market. This anticipated spike of vacant space will, and has already encouraged tenants in the market to wait until later this

year, or early 2010 to finalize any new leasing commitments.

Vacancy bottomed in the latter half of 2008, in GTA downtown at 3.8 per cent and has since increased to 4.4 per cent. In

comparison to twelve months ago, we have observed an increase of 40 basis points, as average asking net rents are slower to

react to the market, however we have not yet observed dramatic decreases. Over the course of the last twelve months, asking

net rents post figures indicating they have decreased by 3 per cent to $24.26 per square foot.

Looking forward, using office employment growth in our model as an indicator for office space demand, we expect vacancy

rates to rise up to almost 9 per cent within the next twelve months. Asking net rents are expected to respond with a decrease

of more than 20 per cent from current levels to approximately $19.00 per square foot. With the economy expected to pick

up again at the end of 2010, early 2011 is when we expect demand for office space to slowly show signs of recovery, as well as

strengthened office market fundamentals.

4

Arrows indicate trend observed since Fall 2008.

Asking Net Rent by Submarket 12-Month Change

June 2008 June 2009

$19.40

$10.79

$15.56

$23.18$19.53

$28.52

$22.28

$18.71

$25.95$8.68

$17.27

$21.64

Toronto West (down 20%)

Downtown East (up 11%)

Downtown West(down 7%)

Downtown North (down 4%)

Financial Core (down 9%)

Downtown South (up 14%)

The pace at which asking net rents have been rising throughout

GTA downtown has come to an end during the last twelve

months. Rents continue to climb in the downtown East

submarket, and downtown South has experienced a noticeable

increase (up 14 per cent) in anticipation of the new supply

coming to market, however the financial core led the losses

(down 9 per cent) followed by downtown West and downtown

North markets.

GTA Downtown Historical Performance & Forecast

FORECAST

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

$24.26

4.4%

Page 7: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA

Dow

ntown

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Vacant space has increased since it bottomed out in Q3 2008 by 12.8 per cent in the Toronto’s downtown

market, and sub-landlords are currently marketing the majority, 62 per cent of newly added space. While vacant

direct space has increased by 5.3 per cent since the bottom of this cycle, sublet space has more than doubled (102

per cent) in this market, competing with direct vacant space for tenants looking for office premises. Toronto’s

downtown market sublet ratio is above the GTA average at the end of Q2 2009, 14 per cent versus 11 per cent

respectively, indicating slightly softer conditions than in other markets.

Toronto’s downtown market managed to

increase occupied space by 540,000 square

feet during the last twelve months, despite

the instabilities of our financial markets.

Downtown North showed the biggest gains,

with more than 300,000 square feet of newly

occupied space. Only downtown South and

GTA West were markets that reduced their

occupied space.

Net Absorption by Submarket 12-Month Change

Downtown North

Financial CoreToronto West

Downtown SouthDowntown East

Downtown West

(15,51

8)

56,422

76,09811

0,26

6

342,321

(28,60

9)

The circle graph represents the distribution of occupied space within the downtown submarkets as of June 30, 2009.

18-Month Vacancy Trend

Total Vacant Area Vacant Sublease Space % of Vacant Sublease Space of Total Vacant Space

8.0% 7.8% 8.4%10.8%

5.9%

14.0%

168,982 216,359 209,320 215,433307,890

422,331

2,872,985

2,709,2262,675,210

2,569,711

2,852,0403,018,787

2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2

1,000,000

500,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Page 8: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA Midtown

Typically sought after by companies looking for a central, non-core location with proximity to public transit and access to a skilled

labour pool, GTA’s midtown market has not been spared from the effects of softening market conditions. Vacancy has steadily

increased throughout 2008 and Q1 2009, with a recent decline in Q2 2009 to 5.5 per cent. Asking net rents have responded with

a minimal decrease of 1.2 per cent, while tenant inducements such as the number of months of free rent and allowances from

landlords for renovations, have increased considerably.

Over the course of the next six to twelve months, we project that GTA’s midtown market will follow suit as the market will continue

to soften, projecting that vacancy rates will rise to over 6 per cent, and asking net rents will react with a decline of 2.3 per cent to $16

per square foot by the end of 2009.

6

Net Absorption: 51,481 Asking Net Rent: $16.40Vacancy Rate: 5.5% Net New Supply: 0

Arrows indicate trend observed since Fall 2008.

June 2008 June 2009

Asking Net Rent by Submarket 12-Month Change

$17.70

$16.83

$15.01

$17.91

$15.39$14.97

Yonge & Bloor (down 1.1%)

Yonge & St. Clair(up 9.4%)

Yonge & Eglinton(up 0.2%)

GTA’s midtown posts fairly stable average asking

net rents, quoting a minor decrease of 0.6 per cent,

compared to twelve months ago. Distinguishing

between it’s submarkets reveals that only Yonge &

Bloor experienced a decrease in asking net rent,

down 1.1 per cent, while the Yonge & St. Clair

submarket quoted an increase of 9.4 per cent, and

the Yonge & Eglinton submarket remains flat.

GTA Midtown Historical Performance & Forecast

FORECAST

$0

$8

$6

$4

$2

$10

$12

$14

$16

$20

$18

1%

4%

3%

2%

5%

6%

7%

8%

10%

9%

$16.40

5.5%

Page 9: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA

Midtow

n

GTA’s midtown market experienced minimal

positive absorption over the past year, as Yonge

& St. Clair and Yonge & Eglinton remain

positive, while Yonge & Bloor show a decrease

in the amount of occupied space.

Almost all vacant space, 96 per cent in GTA midtown is being marketed directly, while the sublet market seems

almost non-existent. Over the course of the last 18 months, GTA’s midtown sublet ratio ranges between 3.1 per

cent and 4.6 per cent, with the exception of Q4 2008, well below the GTA office market average of 11 per cent.

7

18-Month Vacancy Trend

Total Vacant Area Vacant Sublease Space % of Vacant Sublease Space of Total Vacant Space

772,379 800,670814,795

996,4961,038,753

943,421

4.4%3.1%

9.2%

3.9%4.6%

4.2%

35,750 35,541 25,061

91,548

40,77140,060

2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Net Absorption by Submarket 12-Month Change

Yonge & St. Clair Yonge & Eglinton Yonge & Bloor

The circle graph represents the distribution of occupied space within the midtown submarkets as of July 30, 2009.

22,10045,642

(16,25

6)

Page 10: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA Nor th

Net Absorption: 196,679 Asking Net Rent: $16.92 Net New Supply: 103,154Vacancy Rate: 4.6%

Vacancy in Toronto’s GTA North market has steadily increased from a record low of 2.8 per cent in Q3 2008, to 4.6 per cent

at the end of Q2 2009, reflecting weakening economic conditions and active occupiers. Ignoring the dynamics of supply and

demand, asking net rents have increased, and are currently quoted at almost $17 per square foot. This inverse impact is due to

the fact that most of GTA North’s newly added space is located in Class A and Class B buildings in the North Yonge Corridor,

both which typically have higher asking rents, and pull the average asking net rent to the higher end of the spectrum.

We expect this market to continue to soften until the end of 2009, as the vacancy rate increases to 5 per cent. Asking net rent

levels are projected to decrease by 3.3 per cent to a level of approximately $16.35 per square foot.

8

Arrows indicate trend observed since Fall 2008.

GTA North Historical Performance & Forecast

FORECAST

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

$16.92

4.6%

The GTA North market’s asking net rent as a whole rose 5.4

per cent from $16.05 per square foot, to $16.92 per square

foot during the last twelve months. Rising asking net rents

of available space in the GTA’s North market are evident on

Yonge Street in the North-Yonge Corridor (up 5 per cent),

Richmond Hill (up 14 per cent) experiencing higher rents,

followed by Dufferin-Finch (up 6 per cent). Yorkdale and

Vaughan have both decreased, 2 per cent and 8 per cent

respectively.

Asking Net Rent by Submarket 12-Month Change

Julne 2008 June 2009

$15.34

$17.69

$9.23

$11.67

$17.40

$19.01

$13.47

$16.82$8.74$11.91

Dufferin/Finch (up 6%)

North-Yonge Corridor(up 5%)

Richmond Hill (up 14%)Vaughan (down 8%)

Keele Hwy 401 / Yorkdale

(down 2%)

Page 11: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA

North

The GTA North market experienced positive

net absorption over the past 12-month

period. Vaughan, the second largest office

submarket in GTA North added over

200,000 square feet of occupied space, while

the remaining submarkets added or shed

minor amounts of occupied space.

Direct and sublet vacancies in GTA North have been steadily growing for the past three quarters. The sublet ratio

has increased during this period, similar to the situation experienced in Toronto’s downtown market, indicating

a growing inventory of sublet space. GTA North’s sublease ratio currently sits at 13 per cent, above the GTA-wide

average, while GTA North posts the lowest vacancy rate of all GTA suburban areas.

9

North-Yonge Corridor

Keele Hwy 401 / Yorkdale

Dufferin/FinchRichmond Hill

Vaughan The circle graph represents the distribution of occupied space within the GTA North submarkets as of July 30, 2009.

Net Absorption by Submarket 12-Month Change

200,013

14,9

70

10,2

13

(5,7

68)

(22,

749)

18-Month Vacancy Trend

Total Vacant Area Vacant Sublease Space % of Vacant Sublease Space of Total Vacant Space

649,407

575,301

427,847462,972

629,341

706,613

81,450

34,190 33,03264,756

91,589

13.6%

8.0% 7.1%

10.3%

12.5% 13.0%

78,386

2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Page 12: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA East

Net Absorption: 575,531 Asking Net Rent: $13.04 Net New Supply: 128,291Vacancy Rate: 8.2%

Toronto’s GTA East market has been traditionally pegged as a softer market with above average vacancy and below average

asking net rents. As seen in other markets, it also experienced softening market conditions during the last three quarters.

Vacancy in this market has increased by 110 basis points between Q3 2008 to 8.2 per cent in Q2 2009. Average asking net

rents also decreased by 2.4 per cent from $13.36 to $13.04 per square foot in the same time period. With office employment

projected to further decrease, we expect GTA East’s vacancy rate to continue to rise to 8.4 per cent by the end of 2009, with

asking net rents to decrease by almost 10 per cent to approximately $11.74 per square foot.

10

Arrows indicate trend observed since Fall 2008.

GTA East Historical Performance & Forecast

FORECAST

$0

$2

$8

$6

$4

$10

$12

$14

$16

1%

5%

3%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

$13.04

8.2%

Asking Net Rent by Submarket 12-Month Change

June 2008 June 2009

$14.13

$8.77

$13.70

$14.17$11.64

$12.30$13.91

$12.15

$14.19

$12.08

$7.98

$16.29

$12.60

$8.92

$12.51

$15.27$10.22

$12.13

Consumers Road (down 2%)

Duncan Mill(up 61%)

Don Mills/Eglinton(down 3%)

Pickering/Oshawa (up 16%)

Toronto East(up 10%)

Hwy 404/Hwy 407(down 10%)

Markham (down 13%)

Scarborough Town (down 1%)

Woodbine & Steeles

(up 1%)

Net rental rates across GTA East were split as five of the nine

markets experienced a drop in rental rates, and the remaining

four experienced increases. This is reflected in GTA East’s

market average, which was virtually unchanged year-over-year

(up only 0.5 per cent). The real story in GTA East is the

Duncan Mill submarket, which saw more than a 5 dollar per

square foot increase in rents (up 61 per cent) which we believe

is related to the recently completed landmark Don Mills

Centre at the corner of Don Mills and Lawrence.

Page 13: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA

East

Occupied space increased by 575,000 square

feet during the last twelve month in GTA

East. All but one submarket recorded positive

net absorption as Markham, Scarborough

Town Centre, and Hwy 404/Hwy 407

achieved the top three sports, offering good

highway access to tenants, proximity to public

transit, and access to large labour pools.

Toronto East is the only submarket that

noted negative net absorption during the last

12 months.

GTA East, similar to GTA midtown has bucked the sublease trend with 5.9 per cent of all vacant space currently

being marketed as sublease space, well below the GTA-wide average. Nevertheless, sublet space has doubled in the

GTA East market since it bottomed in Q3 2008, while direct space has only increased by 13 per cent.

11

18-Month Vacancy Trend

Total Vacant Area Vacant Sublease Space % of Vacant Sublease Space of Total Vacant Space

3,038,5712,840,629

2,474,4912,595,710

2,883,118 2,868,386

9.7%

3.4% 3.8%5.5%

9.7%

5.9%294,905

84,255 98,570157,917 168,953

274,743

2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Net Absorption by Submarket 12-Month Change

Markham

Toronto EastDuncan Mill

Don Mills & EglintonConsumers Road

Hwy 404/Hwy 407

Woodbine & Steeles

Pickering / Oshawa

Scarborough Town Centre

The circle graph represents the distribution of occupied space within the GTA East submarkets as of June 30, 2009.

63,11773,80492,122

131,701180,135

(18,72

8)

6,00

332,543

14,835

Page 14: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA West

Net Absorption: 861,245 Asking Net Rent: $14.91 Net New Supply: 815,232Vacancy Rate: 6.2%

Contrasted with GTA Downtown, GTA West has experienced and continues to experience the most construction activity,

delivering more than one million square feet of new, state-of-the-art product into softening market conditions. Combined

with existing office space that continues to be added to the market due to company’s needs to reduce staff, we expect excess

space to take some time to be absorbed. For the time being, GTA West will provide those searching for space with additional

options. Vacancy currently sits at 6.2 per cent in the market, a level seen a year ago, but up 160 basis points from two quarters

ago. We project vacancy will continue to rise to 7.5 per cent by the end 2009, and as vacancies rise, occupancy costs are

expected to decrease by 6 per cent from $14.90 per square foot to $14.00 per square foot.

12

Arrows indicate trend observed since Fall 2008.

GTA West Historical Performance & Forecast

FORECAST

$0

$4

$2

$6

$10

$8

$12

$16

$14

$18

0%

4%

2%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

$14.91

6.2%

The net asking rate in GTA West has remained steady since

2008, decreasing just 0.5 per cent from $14.99 per square

foot to $14.91 per square foot. We believe this is due to the

fact that five of its twelve submarkets experienced declines,

six increased and one was left unchanged. The Cooksville

submarket rose most significantly up 17 per cent, while

the largest reduction was seen in Brampton experiencing a

decline of 15 per cent.

Asking Net Rent by Submarket 12-Month Change

June 2008 June 2009

$15.50

$16.39

$16.55

$17.07$13.90

$12.50

$11.96

$14.64

$14.68

$15.08

$18.54

$10.59$17.06 $12.94 $14.07

$14.17

$13.43

$12.94

$15.07$12.41

$15.95

$13.62$14.73

$16.81

Airport Corporate Centre (up 8%)

Airport East (up 1%)

AirportWest(up 4%)

Bloor / Islington(down 3%)

Brampton(up 15%)

Burlington (down 3%)

Cooksville (up 17%)

Hwy 401 Hurontario (up 7.5%)

Mississauga City Centre

(no change)

Meadowvale (up 3%)

Oakville (down 12%)

Sheridan(down 2%)

Page 15: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

GTA

West

The largest decrease in occupied space

over the past 12 months was seen in the

airport East submarket which gave back

251,717 square feet of space. The airport

West submarket that experienced the largest

gain for the second year in a row, absorbing

370,294 square feet, countered this.

The GTA West market continues to quote the highest sublet ratio in Toronto at 15.9 per cent, although it is off

it’s high of 20.3 per cent observed in Q4 2008. This, despite the fact that sublease space has increased over the

same time by almost 8 per cent is caused by the growth of total vacancy rates by almost 800,000 square feet, or 38

per cent.

13

Net Absorption by Submarket 12-Month Change

The circle graph represents the distribution of occupied space within the GTA West submarkets as of June 30, 2009.

Airport West

CooksvilleACC

SheridanOakville

Hwy 404/Hurontario

Airport East

BurlingtonBrampton Bloor/Islington

Meadowvale

MCC

34,078

66,33498

,877

98,89214

3,85

6

329,519370,294

7,47

3

6,62

5

(10,79

4)

(32,19

2)

(251

,717

)

18-Month Vacancy Trend

Total Vacant Area Vacant Sublease Space % of Vacant Sublease Space of Total Vacant Space

2,736,193 2,766,642

2,286,873

2,045,380

2,435,412

313,126 352,960 342,464414,863 346,011

447,306

12.8%15.0%

20.3%

14.2%11.4%

15.9%

2,820,306

2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Page 16: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

Glossar y of Terms

Office InventoryThe sum of net rentable area in office buildings with

more than 10,000 square feet of office space. Buildings

owned and occupied by the government are not

included.

Net New SupplyChange of office inventory associated with a given time

period.

Office Employment According to The Conference Board of Canada office

employment consists of workers employed in the

following industries: Finance, Insurance & Real Estate;

Commercial Services and Public Administration.

Occupied SpaceOffice space physically occupied by companies, not

available to lease.

Net AbsorptionChange of occupied space associated with a given time

period.

Available SpaceSpace that is available for lease and may or may not be

vacant. It includes both head lease (direct), and sublease

space.

Availability RateThe amount of available space divided by the building’s

inventory base.

Vacant SpaceSpace that is available immediately and physically

unoccupied. It includes both head lease (direct), and

sublease space.

Vacancy RateThe amount of vacant space divided by the existing

building’s inventory base.

Vacant Sublease RatioThe percentage of vacant sublease space in relation to

total vacant space.

Average Asking Net RentThe dollar amount requested by landlords for direct

available space (not sublease), expressed in dollars per

square foot per year.

14

Page 17: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

About U

sColliers International represents property investors, developers and

occupiers in local, national and global markets.

North Office

245 Yorkland Blvd., Suite 200

Toronto, Ontario

Canada, M2J 4W9

416.492.2000

Downtown Office

One Queen Street East, Suite 2200

Toronto, Ontario

Canada, M5C 2Z2

416.777.2200

West Office

185 The West Mall, Suite 1600

Toronto, Ontario

Canada, M9C 5L5

416.626.1600

Scott Addison

Executive Managing Director,

Toronto

416.620.2800

[email protected]

Mary Mowbray

Manager,

Retail Practice Group

416.643.3740

[email protected]

John Arnoldi

Managing Director

Office Practice Group,

Toronto

416.643.3733

[email protected]

Ian Thompson

Research Analyst

416.643.3765

[email protected]

Duerten Lindenbeck

Senior Research Analyst

416.643.3764

[email protected]

Colliers International Contacts

Our Strategic Partners:

This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com/toronto. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at 416.777.2200. This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. Colliers Macaulay Nicolls (Ontario) Inc., Brokerage © 2009 is an owner member of Colliers International, a worldwide affiliation of independently owned and operated companies.

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Page 18: Summer 2009 GTA Office Market Report & Forecast

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