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DUS2022INTRODUCTIONO

STRATEGICTUDIES

TheSecond uclear ge:NuclearWeaponsn heTwenty-firstentury

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The woNuclear ges

. FirstNuclear ge: approximately945 o'199'r

- Small umber f nucleartates,woofwhich(the uperpowers)uilt normousrsenals

. . SecondNuclear gebegan ith hecollapse f theUSSR

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1ST UCLEAR GE. Nuclear eapons avenotbeenused n conflict ince tomic

bombs eredropped n Hiroshima Nagasaki,apann 1945.

' Nuclearweaponrecategorized,longwithchemical,biological radiologicalevices, s a weapons f massdestruction.

. Competitionn hebuildingf nuclear eapons asveryclosely ied o the coldwarbetweenhe UnitedStatesand heSovietUnionand hetheorcticalmodels elatingo deterrencethatwerebuiltduring hat ime reflect he bipolar ompetitionbetweenhe wo suoeroowers.

' NWare divided ntoa variety f categories, epending n theirdesign,means f delivery,ndother actors.

. Twoof most mportant istinctions re betweenissionandthermonuclear eapons nd betweenactical nd strategicweapons.

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NWTerminology. Ballistic issile. missile ith ocketmotorswhich

flieson a ball isticraiectorv.allistic issiles arrvpayload f conventionalf WMDwarheads, .K.Aasre-entrv ehicles. arlvballistic issiles ereinaccuiatendcould inlycarry elativelymallpayloadsor shortdistances,utadvancedmissilescanbe ntercontinentalange ndcarry ndependentlytarget blewarheads.

. Cruisemissile. missile ithan air breathinq otor:in essence. smalloiiot essaircraft Curren-l odeistravel t subsonic peeds. ombersanbe equippedto carrynucleartippedcruisemissiles.

. Decapitationtrike. n attackntendedo destroyheleadershipcommand,ontrol, communicat ion(C3)network f an enemy ation.

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NWTerminology. Disarmingtrike. n attackhatattemptso

destroy n enemy's uclearorces.f a disarmingstrike s successful,heenemy tatewillnotutterlydestroyed utwlllbe mi)itarilye)p)esscompelledo negotiate peace n hedisarmer'sterms.

. Fallout. adioactiveebris esultinoromanuclear xolosion. eavier articledend o settlein theareaof theexolosion. hile iqhter nesoften ravel reatdidtances.alloutiontaminationcanresult riserious, ven atal,health ffects.

. Triad. hecombinat ionfSLBMs.CBMs.nuclear-armedong ange ombershat ogethercomprisehe strategic uclearorces f the UnitedStates& Russia.

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NWTerminology

' Fissile aterial.. Themost mportant issile aterial reuranium 35 U235)

andpluton'um39 P239). hese adioactivesotopes redifficulto acquire. given uantityf mined raniumcontains ery ittleU235: he attermustbe separatedromnonmissile ranium.

. Plutoniums not ound nnaturen anysignificantuantity-t

is a byproduct f nuclear rocessesuided y humans.. The controlof fissilematerials very mportantn preventing

nuclear roliferation,ut hegenerationf nuclear owerrequiresissilematerial.

. The nternationaltomic gencyIAEA)s askedwithensuringhatnonnuclear eapons ountries hichhavenuclear ower lants o notdivertissilematefial nduse t obuild uclear eapons.

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Nuclear eapons

r Alongwithchemical,iological,ndradiologicalevices, reconsideredweapons f massdestruction

. Fission s. hermonuclear

. Tactical s. strategic

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Typicalmeans f nuclearelivery

Strategic eapons: ntercontinentalallisticmissi leslCBMs),ubma ine-lanch dball istic issi lesSLBMs),eavy ombers

Tactical eapons:Artillery,actical ircraft,short-rangeall isticndcruisemissiles,tc.

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Proliferation

. Horizontals.vedical roliferation- Continuingorizontalroliferation,ut otal

number fwarheads orldwideallinq

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ColdWar Nuclear eterrence

. lt is mpossibleo prove efinitivelyhatColdWarnuclear eterrenceidor didnotorevent arbetweenheUnited tates ndSovietUnion- Even f ColdWardeterrenceheoriesworked,"

there s noguaranteehat heywillbe continuetn ha annl iaahla

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Deterrence. Consist fthe ollowinghreat,ntendedo dissuade state

fromaggression:Donotatlackmebecausef u dosomethingnacceptablyorrible il lhappeno you".. A formof persuasionn military trategy.. As a strategy, eterrences oftencontrasted ithdefence.. Defenceocus n militaryapabilitiesatherthan

intentions.. Deterrence orksby threatof punishment,efenceworks

bydenyingheabilityo achievetsobjectivesnceanattackhas begun.

. BeforeNilAD, &Dsimply eferredo differentimeperiods.

. Nuclear eterrence no nuclear rmed tateshasgone owar.

. Q: Howmuchnuclears enough?

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ColdWar NuclearDeterrence. With he end of the ColdWar, he worldhas entered

Second uclear ge nwhich henumber factorsprocessing uclear.weaponss progressivelyncreasingevenas absolute umber f suchweaponss alling.

. Deterrence ayprove nreliablen he uture.Deterrencetheorieshat weredevelopedn the context f strugglebetweenhe UnitedStates& the SovietUnionmavDroveto be napplicableo other owcr uch s Nor:hKorba

lran.. Strategiculturenfluenceowa country ses tsnuclear

arsenal or deterrence nd/orwar ighting.. Ballistic issile efenses illbe mportantactorn nuclear

decision akingn he uture, nd heexistencef B[,4Dmaydiscourageome ountriesromatiemptingo acquirenuclear eapons.

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Deterrencen heSecond uclearAge

. "Rogue tates" nd he reliabilityfdeterrence

' Strategiculture mportanto how eadersthink bout uclear rms

. Mutually ssuredDestructionotrelevant.tothe currentUS-Russiaelationship

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TheNon-Proliferationreaty NPT)

. NonProliferationndcounter roliferationeasuresareused o control nd deally revent,hc horizontalproliferationf nuclear eapons.

. NPTAcknowledgesnly ivenuclear eapons tates(China, rance,GreatBritain,heSovietUnion/Russia,nd he United tates)

.Forbid ther ignatoriesromobtainingLrclc:rweapons.

. Most tates resignatories,lthoughome ncludingnuclear rmed ountriesuchas India,srael&Pakistan renot.

. However,ikeotheruniversalisarmamentagreements,t lacks trong nforcementrovisions.

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TheNon-ProliferationreatyNPT)

. Effective nforcementf universaldisarmamentgreementsuchas the NPThasproven ifficult, speciallys suchagreementsenerally nlyhaveveryweakenforcementrovisions.

. l t s veryunlikelyhatnuclear eapons i l lbecome bsolescentn the next ewdecades, r that he worlcl nuclear owers

wil lallagree o dismantleheir rser,als.

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Non-NPT uclear eapons tates

. India ndPakistanpenly ave csiednuctear eapons

' lsrael ndNorthKorea:Presum:r o benuclear-armed

. SouthAfrica ui l t, ut ater isnr. l iec,nuclear rsenal

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A taboo oainstuclear,rse?

. Nuclearweaoons otused n wai-fareince1945

. However, o truly hard ases"n v;lrichstatedecided ot o use tsarseral,so thestrength fthe "taboo"s ':certain

. Candeterrenceast ndefinitelv?

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Ball istic issile eienct:BMD)' An anti-ballisticmissile ABM) i,a missiie r.,signedo

counter allistic issilese misail )rmisr;leJefense).. A ballistic issiles used o delivr)"uclear l .mical,

biologicalr conventionalarhe.,i.sna bi,,l isLrclightrrajeclory.

. The erm anti-ballisticissile"escribes1yErntimissilesystem esignedo counter allif r missils.1.)!veverthe

term s usedmore ommonlyor./c\,4 ys' rn '.s;rrcd tocounterong ange, uclear-arnr ':ierc lir ", rl lJ llrsticmissileslCBNls).

. Likelyhatnumeroustates i i ls ., i to a( !i . l iv4D n heTUIUTe

Country ithBMDability reUS. iina, i . ls[el &lnota

Possibleorizontalroliferationisincentiv,

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