Statistical Catfights and The Spirit Level Ben Baumberg (Kent) & Robert de Vries (Oxford)
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Transcript of Statistical Catfights and The Spirit Level Ben Baumberg (Kent) & Robert de Vries (Oxford)
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Statistical Catfights and The
Spirit Level
Ben Baumberg (Kent) & Robert
de Vries (Oxford)
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- Sympathetic to the argument- Inspired by public engagement
But...
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1. Is The Spirit Level’s argument true?
2. Has The Spirit Level politicised scientific debate?
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IS THE SPIRIT LEVEL TRUE?
Part One
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Japan Norway Sweden United Kingdom United States0
10
20
30
40
50Bi
rths
per
1,0
00 w
omen
15-
19
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Japan Norway Sweden United Kingdom United States0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80%
of a
dults
ove
rwie
ght
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20 25 30 35 40 45 5075
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
80.8415
79.331779.3276
80.2927
77.8439
78.8171
80.1146
78.931779.239
81.5805
81.1024
80.1512
80.5805
81.9251
78.4327
79.3463
79.851280.0415000000001
78.070778.2961
77.6122
80.1707
80.5463
79.0488
77.339
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
at b
irth
Source: SWIID & WDI
r=0.12
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20 25 30 35 40 45 5075
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
80.8415
79.331779.3276
80.2927
77.8439
78.8171
80.1146
78.931779.239
81.1024
80.1512
80.5805
81.9251
78.4327
79.3463
79.851280.0415000000001
78.070778.2961
77.6122
80.1707
80.5463
79.0488
77.339
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
at b
irth
Source: SWIID & WDI
r=-0.12
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20 25 30 35 40 45 500.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
4.7
44
5.2
4.1
3
3.83.9
4.8
22.3
4.4
3.8
2.8
4.54.4
5.4
3.2
3.8
8
3.4
4.8
2.8
5.1
6.8
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
(per
1,0
00 li
ve b
irths
)
Source: SWIID & WDI
r=0.36
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20 25 30 35 40 45 500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
16.5824
13.071814.9572 14.3624
6.219
10.8418
7.50768.907
11.2104
3.5202
15.6348 14.8388
6.7965.334
2.2422
5.86559999999999
29.3956
9.2364
18.1476
58.303
6.387
11.7578
6.8236
28.5852
41.9452
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
Birt
hs p
er 1
,000
wom
en 1
5-19
Source: SWIID & WDI
r=0.46
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20 25 30 35 40 45 500
5
10
15
20
25
1.269390.655961000000001
2.1221 2.05369
0.97796
2.269111.60009
1.05281 1.180350.499276000000001
1.01098
2.46799
1.039690.508731
2.25533
1.20818 1.475530.713776000000001
1.28039
20.3861
0.998959 1.193670.8970751.48498
5.63978
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
Hom
icid
es p
er 1
00,0
00 p
opul
ation
Source: SWIID & UNODC
r=0.44
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20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 400
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1.26939
0.655961000000001
2.12212.05369
0.97796
2.26911
1.60009
1.05281
1.18035
1.01098
2.46799
1.03969
0.508731
2.25533
1.20818
1.47553
0.713776000000001
1.28039
0.998959
1.19367
0.897075
1.48498
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
Hom
icid
es p
er 1
00,0
00 p
opul
ation
Source: SWIID & UNODC
r=0.31
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Source: SWIID & OECD programme for international student assessment
r=-0.16
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
519.908
505.483999999999
520.349
527.007
513.025999999999
548.357999999999
495.538
503.791
459.202
505.545
441.859
461.689
523.102999999999
547.457999999999
530.654
521.989
489.846
466.161
504.456
479.958
502.356
495.444
474.352
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
Mea
n PI
SA m
aths
sco
re a
t age
15
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Source: SWIID & WHO
r=-0.38
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 400
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
67.3662
57.0937
46.32
61.095
45.7843
58.6523
40.1357
60.0587
68.4905
60.373857.3485
45.5051
22.5502
42.0097
45.9694
68.4124
49.1004
53.8417
59.761
51.754249.7313
63.7985000000001
74.0812
Inequality (Gini in 2005)
% o
f ove
r 15s
ove
rwei
ght
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1. Negative outcomes correlate with each other
2. Unequal countries tend to do worse
3. Relationship unlikely to be entirely due toa) Povertyb) Ethnic heterogeneityc) GDPd) Compositional effect of individual income
4. Feelings of inferiority are harmful
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HAS THE SPIRIT LEVEL POLITICISED SCIENTIFIC DEBATE?
Part Two
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Truth vs. ‘social critique’“Scientists seeking political victories through science may find this strategy expedient in the short term, but over the long run it may diminish the constructive role that scientific expertise can play in the policy process”
Roger Pielke Jr, 2004:407
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Potential sources of politicisation
1. Uncertainty
2. Consensus
3. Assertion of scientific authority
4. Is vs. Ought
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Potential sources of politicisation
1. Uncertainty
2. Consensus
3. Assertion of scientific authority
4. Is vs. Ought
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• Rob’s points–Priors vs. Data
• More research?
Unlikely to ever have fully convincing evidence in either direction...
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?How can we enter public debate in areas where evidence is highly uncertain?
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Potential sources of politicisation
1. Uncertainty
2. Consensus
3. Assertion of scientific authority
4. Is vs. Ought
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Political disagreement
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Academic disagreement
Gol
dtho
rpe,
Ro
wlin
gson
, Lan
e Ke
nwor
thy,
Dea
ton,
Ly
nch,
Dan
iel L
ittle
...
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? How can we enter public debate in the face of dissensus?
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Potential sources of politicisation
1. Uncertainty
2. Consensus
3. Assertion of scientific authority
4. Is vs. Ought
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“All of these attacks are based on a complete misunderstanding of what we were about. We took relationships that had been largely established by other people’s work on other groups of countries or states, and we looked to see if they could be demonstrated …amongst this group”
Richard Wilkinson
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“In order to distinguish between well founded criticism and unsubstantiated claims made for political purposes, all future debate should take place in peer-reviewed publications”
Wilkinson & Pickett, ‘Reply to Critics’
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?How can we enter public debate while avoiding non-scientific mudslinging?
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Potential sources of politicisation
1. Uncertainty
2. Consensus
3. Assertion of scientific authority
4. Is vs. Ought
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• From ‘is’ to ‘ought’ (cf. Hume)– Not value-free
• Spirit Level– No recommendations– Conservatives, Lib Dems, Labour
But still perceived agenda... "The evidence shows that reducing inequality is the best way of improving the quality of life, for all of us“ (Spirit Level p29)
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? How can we enter public debate without conflating ‘is’ and ‘ought’?
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“If everyone politicizes the science, maybe there is something about science that lends itself to being politicized?” (Sarewitz 2004:388)
• Uncertainty/dissensus• Need for certainty• ‘Facts’ matter
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But ‘closure’ differs...
“ ‘Balanced’ discussions in the media can be misleading...[even] where the accumulation of evidence leaves little legitimate room for doubt. E.g. if 98% of climate change scientists agree on an issue and 2% disagree, then inviting 1 person from each camp..can leave people with an impression that an issue is much more controversial than it is” (p294)
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FINAL THOUGHTS
Part Three
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Critical case...–Richard’s work–Accessibility
...of wider issue–Priors over data–Little guidance
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Do scientists have responsibilities around the way they engage in public debate?– Assertion of scientific authority?– Representation of uncertainty?– Representation of consensus?– Calls to action?
We want your help...