SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer July 2011 Findings

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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) BarometerJuly 2011 Findings

Date: 21st July 2011

Methodology

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Poll Methodology

Dates of polling June 30th – July 8th, 2011

Sample Size 2000 respondents

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS

Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas

Data collection methodology

Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Perceived problems facing Kenya today

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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

“In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” (by Total)

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Prices of key commodities

Commodity April 2011 July 2011 Maize flour (1 kg) Kshs 40.00 – 45.00 Kshs 67.00 – 80.00

Dry Maize (90 Kg bag) Ksh 2,000.00 – 2,600.00 Ksh 4,000.00 – 4,800

Sugar (1 kg) Ksh 94.00 – 98.00 Ksh 100.00 – 130

1 Litre Cooking Oil Ksh 100.00 – 130.00 Ksh 210.00 – 245

Fuel (1 litre petrol) Ksh 104.00 Ksh 115.39

Fuel (1 litre diesel) Ksh 94.53 Ksh 106.12

Kerosene (1 litre) Ksh 84.53 Ksh 86. 16

Milk Ksh 28.00 Ksh 28.00 – 32.00

Bread (500mg) Ksh 32 - 34 Ksh 38.00 – 40.00

1 $ Ksh 83.55 Ksh 89.50

Source: Local shops / retail supermarkets collected by Synovate

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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

“Within the past 6 months, do you think the level of corruption in Kenya has increased, decreased or stayed the same. ..”(by total)

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86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%

Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

% indicating that they are very committed/somewhat committed

“How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?”(By total)

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“How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?”(By total)

86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%


Prime M

iniste

r

Preside

nt

Vice P

reside

nt

KAAC(Ken

ya A

nti C

orrup

tion C

ommiss

ion)

Parliam

ent

The A

ttorne

y Gen

eral

26%22%

12%

43%

11% 9%

41% 43% 42%

35%37%

33%

28%31%

38%

13%

45%42%

5% 5%7% 8%

6%

14%

1% 1% 1% 1%

Very committed Somewhat commited Not at all committedDon't know No response

Performance Ratings

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“How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions over the last three months?” by Total


Parliament

Your local MP

Coalition Govt

Courts

Vice President

President

Prime Minister

Kofi Annan team

Speaker

KACC

The Media

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

41%

46%

47%

47%

50%

65%

66%

71%

74%

74%

86%

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Performance Rating of the Grand Coalition Government: Time Series


Jul 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 April 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jul 110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

77%

69%

61%

33%

44%49% 50%

34%

65% 63%

47%

Constitutional Implementation

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Key deadlines for the Constitution implementation:

Publishing crucial bills: Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act, 2011

Crucial bills yet to be passed: Deadline is August 27th 2011 Elections Bill Political Parties Bill Devolved Government Bill Bill on Citizenship Bill on Ethics and Corruption Budget and Finance Bill

Article 261 (1)“Parliament shall enact any legislation required by this Constitution to be enacted to govern a particular matter within the period specified in the Fifth Schedule, commencing on the effective date” Article 261 (5) “If Parliament fails to enact any particular legislation within the specified time, any person may petition the High Court on the matter”

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“What is the main difficulty you foresee in implementing the new Constitution?” by Total


Top 5 perceived difficulties:

Contentious issues

Lack of Citizens' awareness

Lack of cohesion

Corruption

Political interests / Lack of political will

6%

6%

17%

20%

34%

Presidential Candidate and Political Party Choice

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“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” by Total


ODMPNU

ODM Ken

ya

Narc K

enya

UDM

FORD-Ken

ya

KANUNarc

Others

None

33%

23%

9%

3% 3%2% 2%

1% 1%

23%

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“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” -Time Series

Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

43%41%

48%

38%41%

33%

7% 8% 7%

2%

7%9%

21%22% 21%

18%21%

23%

1% 2%4%

2% 3% 3%4% 5%3%

4%

13%

9%

22%21%

17%

36%

14%

23%

ODM ODM Kenya PNU Narc Kenya Other None

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“If ODM which group within ODM, do you support?” by Total

Base: n=650 (Those saying “ODM”)

Raila Group; 80%

Ruto Group; 18%

Not sure; 1%

No response; 1%

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Over 13 candidates have declared interest in the Presidency:

Professor James Ole Kiyiapi Professor Chirau Ali Makwere Isaac Jafar Paul Muite Mutava Musyimi Eugene Wamalwa Moses Wetangula Bifwoli Wakoli Martha Karua Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka William Ruto Charity Ngilu Moses Mudavadi

Others: Peter Kenneth Mike Sonko

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Constitutional Requirements on the Presidency

Article 138(4) : Declaration of winner “A candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives a) more than half (over 50%) of all votes cast in the election and b) “at least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the Counties “(47 Counties i.e. 24 Counties)

Article 137(1d) : The nomination process “A person is qualified for nomination as a Presidential Candidate if he or she is endorsed by not fewer than 2,000 voters from each of a

majority of the Counties ( in at least 24 Counties before being endorsed by the electoral commission)”

Article 148 (1 and 3): Declaring a running mate “Each candidate in a presidential election shall nominate a person who is qualified for nomination for election as President, as a

candidate for Deputy President”

“The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall declare the candidate nominated by the person who is elected as the President to be elected as the Deputy President”

Other factors at play: Cabinet secretaries will not be elected office holders [will not come from among MPs, senators , governors etc e.g. Article 99 (2)]

The Electoral Commission aims to register 19, 000,000 voters in the next General election (currently 12.4 million voters registered, IIEC)

Voters also expected to elect; on the same day as President;a.Governorb.Senatorc.Member of Parliament d.County representativee.County Women’s representative f.And probably a mayor in urban areas e.g. Nairobi

Voter turn out

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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total


Raila O

dinga

Uhuru

Kenya

tta

Kalonz

o Mus

yoka

Willi

am R

uto

Martha

Karu

a

Eugen

e Wam

alwa

Peter K

enne

th

Musali

a Mud

avad

i

Kenne

th Mare

nde

No res

pons

e

Don't k

now

32%

21%

11% 11%

5%3%

2%1% 1%

6%7%

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Presidential Candidate Choice

Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 20110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

36%

36%

48%

42% 38%

32%

12%12% 12% 12%

13% 11%8% 8%

14% 14%18%

21%

7%11% 10%

4%8%

11%6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5%4%

1% 1% 2% 3% 3%

11% 14%

4%

16%

8%13%

Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta Willam Ruto

Martha Karua Eugene Wamalwa Others None


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5 Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate

Leadership Aspect %

One who has good leadership skills 36%

A person of integrity 18%

An individual who is a reformist 16%

One who is mindful of Kenyans’ welfare 14%

One who is development conscious 7%

Someone who is young 5%

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5 Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate

Leadership Aspect Context

One who has good leadership skills

Visionary, responsible, principled, hardworking, courageous, impartial, authoritative, mature and builds unity among Kenyans [article 131 (1e); Symbol of unity ]

A person of integrity Not corrupt, transparent and trustworthy , knows what is good

An individual who is a reformist

Will bring about change in Kenya, is ready for change, will initiate reforms, e.g. implementing the new constitution diverse opinions, has progressive ideas, will streamline the political landscape

One who is mindful of Kenyans’ welfare

Helpful to people , cares about the people’s welfare, cost of living, understands people’s problems, can defends citizens, concerned with youth welfare and represent their interests

One who is development conscious Has good development ideas, good development record, action oriented

Someone who is “young” “Young “

2007 – 2008 Post Election Violence and ICC Trials

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“Which Kenyans have been named for possible trial by the ICC at the Hague?”


Francis Muthaura

Joshua Sang

Hussein Ali

Henry Kosgey

Uhuru Kenyatta

William Ruto

54%

55%

56%

58%

85%

87%

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Opinion on ICC trials


The six suspects named by the ICC prosecutor should be tried by the

ICC at the Hague, 56%

The six suspects named by the ICC prosecutor

should be tried by a local tribunal in Kenya, 33%

The six suspects named by the ICC prosecutor should NOT be tried at

all, 11%

Q. “Please choose one statement that is closest to your view” by Total

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“Are you happy or unhappy that the Hague/the ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence(PEV)?” by Total


Happy; 60%

Unhappy; 32%

Not sure; 5%

DK; 2%

RTA; 1%

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Q. How would your community feel if the Hague/ICC punished each of the following suspects of PEV?

% indicating that they are happy

Those happy with the pursuit of ICC suspects(by province)


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“(If Happy)Please explain?”

Base: n=1208(Those saying happy)

Because the Government failed to establish a local judicial

We do not trust Kenyan courts

We will know the truth about post election violence

Prevent future violence

It will end impunity

So that justice can be done

2%

6%

11%

12%

19%

50%

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(If Unhappy)Please explain?”

Base: n=638(Those saying unhappy)

They should have been tried using a special tribunal

It will cause more violence in the country

Kenyans should forgive each other and move on

The process has been politicised

Enough investigation was not done

The current list is incomplete

The six accused are not real suspects

Should have been tried using local courts

8%

8%

8%

10%

11%

12%

15%

18%

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“In your opinion, should ICC hearings on confirmation of charges be held in….?” by Total


Hague(Netherlands); 51%

Kenya; 37%

Arusha; 2%

Refused to answer; 1%No response; 4%Don't know; 4%

Preference on ICC hearings on confirmation of charges:

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The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A

sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error

attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%

confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target

population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 30 th June - 8th July, 2011

To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya

The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.

POLL METHODOLOGY

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These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.

Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

Poll Methodology (Cont..)

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For further enquiries contact

Maggie IreriMD Synovate Kenya

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer July 2011 Findings

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