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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer

October 2011 Findings

Date: 4th November 2011

2© Synovate 2011

Content of this Presentation

Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition

The October 2011 Survey Findings• High Cost of Living

• ICC Process

• Presidential Candidate Preference

Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition

4© Synovate 2011

Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition

About Ipsos:• Founded in France in 1975 (and was in 68 countries)

• Listed on the Paris Stock Exchange (since 1999)

• Ipsos and Synovate, the 3rd largest global market research company in a consolidating market comprising

Way forward:• Our new corporate identify “Ipsos-Synovate”

• Under Ipsos-Synovate management structure and staff remain the same

Methodology

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Poll Methodology

Dates of polling 15th – 23rd October 2011

Sample Size 2,000 respondents

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)

Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas

Data collection methodology

Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

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Sampling Frame Statistics

Population Census as at 2009 (18 years

+)

Ipsos-Synovate Sample

Registered Voters as at ECK 2007

Register Base 19,462,360 2,000 14,088,302 Central 13% 13% 16%Coast 9% 9% 8%Eastern 15% 15% 17%Nairobi 10% 10% 8%North Eastern 5% 5% 2%Nyanza 13% 13% 15%Rift Valley 25% 25% 23%Western 10% 10% 11%Total 100% 100% 100%

SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Censushttp://www.scribd.com/doc/3339642/Official-Results-of-the-2007-General-elections

Findings

Key problems facing Kenyans today

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Base All Respondents : April (n=2,000) ; July (n=2,000)October (n=2,000)

“In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” SINGLE MENTION ONLY (by Total)

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Prices of key commodities

Commodity April 2011 July 2011 October 2011

Maize flour (1 kg) Ksh 40 – 45 Ksh 67 – 80 Ksh 70 - 80

Dry Maize (90 Kg bag) Ksh 2,000 – 2,600 Ksh 4,000.00 – 4,800 Ksh 3,000 – 3,700

Sugar (1 kg) Ksh 94 – 98 Ksh 100 – 130 Ksh 190 - 220

Fuel (1 litre petrol) Ksh 104 Ksh 115.39 Ksh 120

Fuel (1 litre diesel) Ksh 94 Ksh 106.12 Ksh 110

Kerosene (1 litre) Ksh 84 Ksh 86. 16 Ksh 88

Milk Ksh 28 Ksh 28 – 32 Ksh 33

Bread (500mg) Ksh 32 - 34 Ksh 38 – 40 Ksh 43

1 $ Ksh 83 Ksh 89 Ksh 99

Source: Local shops / retail outlets collected by Synovate

Inflation rate – October (18.9%) ; September (17.3%) ; January (5.42%)Source - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)

Performance Ratings - Coalition Government

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“How would you rate the overall or general performance of the coalition government over the last three months?”

Base: (All respondents)

July '08 Oct '09 Dec '09 April '09 July '09 Oct '09 Dec '09 Mar '10 Dec '10 Mar '11 July '11 Oct '110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

77%

69%

61%

33%

44%49% 50%

34%

65% 63%

47%43%

% indicating that they are approve/somewhat approve

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“How well do you think our coalition government is dealing with the problem of ..... Are they performing..?” by Total

Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Crime Constitution Implementation

Corruption Unemployment Food prices Fuel prices 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

46%40%

15%8% 6% 4%

% indicating that government is doing very well + doing well in dealing with the problem

International Criminal Court (ICC) Process

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“Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” By Total

Yes; 77%

No; 23%

Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

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“Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Province)

Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North eastern

Nyanza Rift valley Western0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%88%

58%

73%

93%

80%73%

85%

50%

11%

41%

26%

7%

19%27%

14%

50%

Yes No

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“How did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Total)

Base: n=1,536 (Those who followed proceedings )

I-NET

Public meetings

Newspapers

From friends/colleagues

Radio

TV

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2%

2%

22%

32%

66%

68%

Internet

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“Do you think that the ICC Confirmation Hearings against the Ocampo 6 were conducted fairly?”

(By province – those who followed/ watched proceedings)

Base: n=1,536 (respondents who watched proceedings)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

76% 73%82%

58%

81%

54%

93%

79%85%

% indicating that the hearings were conducted fairly

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“If the ICC fails to send the Ocampo 6 to trial, do you think they should be tried in Kenya?” (By Total)

Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Yes; 25%

No; 63%

No re-sponse;

2%

Don't know; 9%

Those who support trials ICC Process (Trend over 12 months)

% who support ICC Trials

Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

68%

57%61%

56%59%

Before Ocampo 6 list was unveiled

After Ocampo 6 list was unveiled

Summons issued to appear at The Hague

Post-ICC confirmation of hearing trials

Pre-ICC confirmation of hearing trials

% who support the ICC Process

Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western North Eastern0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

64%

73%73%

71% 72%

61%

72%

60%58%

54%

68%

61%66%

49%

59%

41%

67%

46%

75%

59%

80%

43%

76%73%

65%

36%

76%

50%

79%

37%

84%

48%

69%

58%61%

47%

86%

49%

72%

21%

Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Oct-11

Those who support trials ICC Process – By Province (Trend over 12 months)

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“What did Kibaki do recently to support Francis Muthaura in his ICC case?” by Total

Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Right answer (President Kibaki wrote a letter to the ICC in de-

fence of Head of Civil Service

Francis Muthaura); 21%

Wrong answer; 15%

Don't Know; 63%NR; 1%

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“Do you think President Kibaki did the right thing by writing a letter to the ICC in defence of Francis Muthaura?”

(by Total)

Base: n=419 (Those aware of letter written by President Kibaki )

YES; 35%

NO; 63%

Don’t know; 2%

Refused to answer; 1%

Presidential Elections 2012

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17 Aspirants have declared interest in the Presidency:

1. Professor James Ole Kiyiapi2. Professor Chirau Ali Makwere3. Isaac Jafar 4. Paul Muite5. Mutava Musyimi6. Eugene Wamalwa7. Moses Wetangula8. Bifwoli Wakoli9. Martha Karua 10.Uhuru Kenyatta11. Raila Odinga12.Kalonzo Musyoka 13.William Ruto14.Charity Ngilu 15.Moses Mudavadi16.Peter Kenneth17.Mike Sonko

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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total

Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Raila Odinga

Uhuru Kenyatta

William Ruto

Kalonzo Musyoka

Martha Karua

Eugene Wamalwa

Peter Kenneth

Raphael Tuju

Other Undecided0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

34%

24%

10% 9%5%

2% 1% 1% 1%

12%

Reasons for being undecided: • Waiting final list of candidates (39%

of undecided) • Seeking more information on

candidates (40% of undecided)

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Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

34%

7%

51%

10%

41% 42%

76%

24%

53%

24%

66%

10%

28% 28% 27%

8%

20%

2%

10%

0%4% 2% 2%

12%

1%

31%

6%9%

6% 7%

37%

3% 3% 4% 5%2%

5% 6% 6% 5%

11%

5% 4% 5% 3%2% 0% 1% 1% 0%3%

8%

Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Kalonzo Musyoka

Martha Karua Eugene Wamalwa

“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total

  Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley WesternUndecided 12% 8% 20% 17% 10% 7% 5% 9% 22%

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Presidential Candidate Choice -Time Series

Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011 Oct-110%

20%

40%

60%

36%36%

48%

42%38%

32%34%

12%12% 12% 12%

13%11%

9%8% 8%

14% 14%

18%21%

24%

7%

11%10%

4%

8%11% 10%

6% 5%7%

5% 6% 5% 5%4%1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2%

11%14%

5%

16%

8%

13% 13%

Raila Ondiga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Martha Karua

Eugene Wamalwa Others None

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“ If elections were to be held today, how likely do you think it is for any presidential candidate to win on the first round?” by Total

Very likely + somewhat likely (67%)

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“Under the New Constitution, what % of votes must a presidential candidate attain to win in the 1st round of elections?” (by Province)

Those who indicate the right answerMust garner at least 50% + 1 of votes cast

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“Who would you vote for in case of a run off between…..?” By Total

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Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern

Nyanza Rift Valley Western 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

41%

11%

64%

18%

36%

49%

80%

32%

69%

44%

82%

17%

69%

36%43%

11%

56%

8%8%3%

8% 11% 13%6% 5% 8% 10%7%

5% 11%

1%

14%

1% 3% 5%

13%

Raila Uhuru None DK/NR

“Who would you vote for in case of a run off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta?” (By Province)

DK (don’t know) : NR (no response) 8% 19% 12% 27% 7% 9% 13% 23%

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Candidate voted for in 2007 viz a viz those they would vote for in 2012. (By Total)

Those who voted for Mwai Kibaki in the 2007

would vote for

Those who voted for Raila Odinga the 2007

would vote for

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The Police

Parliament

Coalition Govt

Vice President

The Judiciary

Chief Justice

Prime Minister

President Kibaki

Speaker

The Media

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

27%

41%

43%

46%

47%

49%

60%

62%

68%

83%

% indicating they highly approve + approve of their performance

“How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions? By Total

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Press Kit

• PowerPoint Presentation (on CD)• Additional information on the methodology, sample distribution

by setting (urban and rural), province and district.

• Detailed Press releases in MS-Word (on CD and hard copy)

• Audio recording of Kiswahili version of findings (on CD)

All Synovate polls posted on the website below; www.synovate.co.ke

Questions? Comments?

Detailed Poll Methodology

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The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A

sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error

attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%

confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target

population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 15 th to 23rd, October 2011

To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya

The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.

POLL METHODOLOGY

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These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.

Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

Poll Methodology (Cont..)

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Sampling Frame Statistics

Population Census as at 2009 (18 years

+)

Ipsos-Synovate Sample

Registered Voters as at ECK 2007

Register Base 19,462,360 2,000 14,088,302 Central 13% 13% 16%Coast 9% 9% 8%Eastern 15% 15% 17%Nairobi 10% 10% 8%North Eastern 5% 5% 2%Nyanza 13% 13% 15%Rift Valley 25% 25% 23%Western 10% 10% 11%Total 100% 100% 100%

SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Censushttp://www.scribd.com/doc/3339642/Official-Results-of-the-2007-General-elections

46© Synovate 2011

Total Central Coast Eastern NairobiNorth Eastern Nyanza

Rift Valley Western

2,000 262 176 299 210 95 262 493 203

Urban 37% 37% 51% 24% 100% 21% 27% 29% 21%

Rural 63% 63% 49% 76% 0% 79% 73% 71% 79%

Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural

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MethodologySample distribution – District Level

Boost sample for Mandera, Kakuma Towns and Daadab Towns; 250 each

Province District Rural Urban Total

Central

Kiambu 20 36 56Murang'a 37 8 45Nyeri 32 11 43Thika 24 29 53Kirinyaga 28 5 33Nyandarua 25 6 31

Coast

Kilifi 25 8 33Kwale 24 7 31Mombasa 0 60 60Malindi 14 9 23Tana River 17 5 22

Eastern

Kitui 23 7 30Machakos 27 34 61Makueni 38 6 44Meru North 39 0 39Mbeere 22 0 22Meru Central 31 5 36Mwingi 22 0 22Meru South(Nithi) 15 8 23Embu 17 6 23

Nairobi Nairobi 0 210 210

North EasternGarissa 21 7 28Mandera 32 8 40Wajir 76 20 96

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MethodologySample distribution (continued)

Province District Rural Urban Total

Nyanza

Gucha 26 0 26Kisii Central 23 12 35Migori 17 13 30Kuria 17 5 22Kisumu 11 22 33Nyamira (North Kisii) 20 5 25Rachuonyo 17 5 22Siaya 27 0 27Bondo 17 5 22Suba 22 0 22

Rift Valley

Kajiado 19 18 37Nakuru 42 43 85Nandi 32 6 38Trans Nzoia 30 9 39Turkana 34 6 40Uasin Gishu 27 21 48West Pokot 26 0 26Kericho 18 12 30Buret 24 0 24Bomet 17 6 23Koibatek 18 5 23Samburu 17 5 22Narok 21 5 26Laikipia 17 6 23

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Province District Rural Urban Total

Western

Bungoma 41 14 55

Butere/Mumias 22 6 28

Kakamega 31 6 37

Busia 23 0 23

Teso 16 7 23

Vihiga 19 9 28

Lugari 22 0 22Total 2,000

MethodologySample distribution (continued)

For further information contact:

Maggie.Ireri@synovate.com

or

Victor.Rateng@synovate.com