South Sudan: A Path to Peace

Alex Pearson, Kayla Campion, Jinhee Huh, Shana Zelenka

http://www.lahistoriaconmapas.com/atlas/country-map13/south-sudan-map-2016.htm

Colonialism

● Sudan had been going through process of “Arabization” and “Islamization” since the invasion of the country by Arab tribes from Upper Egypt during the Middle Ages

● Process interrupted by Britain colonizing Sudan in 1890s● Settlement of Christian missionaries in South, various religious customs still

exist (animists and shari’a law in rural areas)● British fill top administrative posts with officials, ignore southern Sudan and

focus on educational needs of the north

Johnson, Douglas H. The Root Causes of Sudan’s Civil Wars. Fountain Publishers, 2003.

Beginning of First Civil War in Sudan

● Arab-led government in Khartoum promised to create govt. where both North and South are represented; instead, they appoint northern officials to political positions in the South

● Southern Sudanese rebel groups forming, such as the Southern Defence Force

● Mutiny by Equatorial Corps in southern city of Torit, with southern Sudanese killing northern officers and their families

● First Civil War begins in 1955 and Britain quick to grant Sudan independence in 1956

First Civil War Continued...

● Fighting between North and South intensifies with the rise of the southern rebel group “Anya Nya” in 1960s

● Largest and most effective military campaign, able to coordinate mass influx of weapons into the country (Cooper 1)

● Shaped dynamics of the first separatist movement with command structure: the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)

● Finally, in 1972, President Jaafar Nimeiri of Sudan granted “a measure of autonomy for southern Sudan” with Addis Ababa Agreement that ended war

Addis Ababa Agreement

● Signed in 1972 ● Three key points:

○ Acknowledged that war occurred from “legacy of uneven development between North and

South” and expressed desire to reach lasting solution

○ Recognized cultural and historical differences between and declared Southerners “have a right

to develop their respective cultures and traditions...and to regional autonomy”

○ Nimeiri proposed to achieve these goals by “extending the amnesty law, developing the

South, appointing a minister of Southern Affairs and calling on all Southerners to build a united

and democratic Sudan” (Shinn 240)

● Decade of peace follows, but agreement fails to dispel tensions that originally caused war

Shinn, David H. Addis Ababa Agreement: was it destined to fail and are there lessons for the Current Sudan Peace Process? In: Annales d’Ethiope. Volume 20, 2004. pp. 239-259. http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial/tabid/124/ctl/ArticleView/mid/519/articleId/5366/NCP-and-SPLM-Signs-Abyei-Agreement-In-Addis-Ababa.aspx

Second Civil War in Sudan

● 1983-2005● Secret coup

○ Prime Minister Abdallah Khalil

● Tension forcing the south to convert to Islamization ○ Implementation of the Sharia Law by the NIF

● Exacerbated tension over Abyei ○ Dinkas and Misseriya

● Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) ● Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)

HANZICH, R. (2011). Struggles in South Sudan: Five Months to Resolve 55 Years of Structural Violence. Harvard International Review. https://sofrep.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/south-sudan-war-905x603.jpg

SPLA Schism

● Army splits into SPLA and SPLA-Nasir in attempt to overthrow SPLA chairman○ SPLA-N lead by Riek Machar and Lam Akol○ Machar eventually becomes vice president

● Caused the formation of several other rebel groups ● Resulted in massacre of Bor Dinka tribesmen led by Riek Machar in 1991

○ Increases ethnic tensions between Dinka and Nuer

Dinka and Nuer Ethnic Tensions ● Span back to the 1500’s● “Derived from a common stock, speak

closely related languages, formerly occupied a common ecological zone, share a common transhumant system of economic production, and display other cultural similarities” (Kelly, 1)

● Despite commonalities… the Dinka and Nuer have conflicted with each other for over a century.

● The tension that exists between the Dinka and the Nuer embedded itself into the newly developed country

Kelly, Raymond C. The Nuer Conquest. The University of Michigan, 1985.

https://nyamiledotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/nuer-dinka.png?w=560&h=295

Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)

● Signed in January of 2005 ● Ended Sudan’s Second Civil War● Aimed to reinvent and unite Sudan between the North and South

○ “reinvent Sudan as a more inclusive, more equal country” (Thomas, 2).

● Created a six-year interim period until separation could be an option○ Intended to allow for the state to rebuild with unity so that come the end of the six-year

period, unity would be a more “attractive option” than separation (Thomas, 2)

● Did not address the underlying concerns of the war and was broadly goal based instead of offering actual plans so in 2011, South Sudan was created

Thomas, Edward. South Sudan: A Slow Liberation. Zed Books: London, 2015.https://radiotamazuj.org/sites/default/files/images/Garang%20and%20Taha.jpg

Current State of Peacelessness

● South Sudan allowed more peacekeepers ● Atrocities such as sexual violence, child soldiers, civilian massacres and

burning food supplies ● UN ready to impose arms embargo against South Sudan

○ Russia has vetoed

● U.S propose to halt importing weapons, travel restrictions and freeze oversea assets on certain individuals

● Peacekeepers are not protecting civilians● Potential for genocide?

○ “Risk of mass atrocitites”- Ban Ki-Moon

SENGUPTA,Somini, 2016, “U.S, in Shift, Backs Arms Embargo for South Sudan as Genocide Risk Rises, New York TimesGettleman, Jefferey, 2016, South Sudan to Allow More Peacekeepers, but Force Will be no “Panacea”, New York Times http://www.un.org/News/dh/photos/large/2013/December/12-30-2013SouthSudan.jpg

Direct Violence ● Sexual and Ethnic violence

○ Throughout the conflict, there have been enormous occurrences of “conflict-related sexual violence” and UN officials have been concerned with systematic ethnically targeted rape.” (Blanchard, 7)

○ In July, 2016, fighting erupted in Juba (the Capital) and transcended into Yei, where UN investigations concluded that “more than 100 women and girls are reported to have been raped or gang-raped,” with Nuer as targeted victims (“South Sudan”).

○ Overall, sexual assault persists, and despite UN efforts to enforce sanctions in response to the sexual violence, there has been little accountability

Blanchard, Lauren Ploch. “Conflict in South Sudan and the Challenges Ahead.” Congressional Research Service. 22 September 2016, 1-22.

“South Sudan.” Security Council Report, 1 September 2016. http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/72914000/jpg/_72914157_021021101-1.jpg

Structural Violence● Power Structures

○ The power structures in South Sudan lift the elites and hinder the rest of the state

○ Traditionally, “power has been structured around two major role divisions: chiefs and elders are

peacemakers, while the youth, [are typically] organized into warrior age sets” (Deng, 13)

■ Therefore, the humanitarian crisis continues to affect those who are disadvantaged by the

power structures, with the mass amounts of individuals impacted being minorities and

everyday families and citizens

● Poverty ○ Half of the population living in poverty - damaged economy due to war ○ 309% inflation rate○ Country is spending more on military expenditure

● Hunger ○ 43% of the total population faces food insecurities

■ Effects of war and poverty Deng, Francis M. Bound by Conflict: Dilemmas of the Two Sudans. Fordham University Press, 2015.

“About South Sudan”. 2016. UNDP.

Structural Violence - Health● Health situation in critical condition, yet health sector is chronically

underfunded and there is a lack of reliable health statistics ● Maternal mortality rate the highest in the world (2,050 deaths per 100,000 live

births) or a 1 in 7 chance of dying during pregnancy or birth● Variety of diseases and epidemics:

○ Malaria (44,000 deaths per year)○ Tuberculosis (affects 228 per 100,000 people○ ¼ of children under 5 are stunted due to malnutrition○ Highest under 5 mortality rate in world, with 135 deaths per 1,000 births

● Of 17 Neglected Tropical Diseases recognized by WHO, South Sudan has them all (Dracunculiasis from contaminated water)

● Lack of access to healthcare (1.5 doctors for every 100,000 citizens)

https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/121114_Downie_HealthSudan_Web.pdf

Structural Violence ● Sexual

○ The direct sexual violence that is taking place

in South Sudan directly correlates to the

structural violence of women and children,

along with ethnic structural violence

○ The more sexual violence occurs, gender

inequality persists, and the opportunity and

power of women decreases

○ As long as sexual violence takes place in

South Sudan, structural violence will continue

to persist against poorer communities of South

Sudan, reinforcing unequal institutional power

http://www.theearthtribe.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/2015_07_afr_south_sudan_dsc_5478_resize.jpg

South Sudan Peace Strategy

Peaceful Settlement (IGOs)

● Prevent any outbreak of violence and human rights violations● Neutral third party mediator

○ Mediate negotiations between ethnic groups○ Alleviate tensions and ongoing violence ○ Help build trust between different ethnic groups

● Different negotiating techniques instead of a compromise○ Expanding the pie○ Nonspecific compensation○ Logrolling○ Cost-cutting○ Bridging

Peacekeepers

● Currently underway ○ Peacekeeping force of 12,000○ Recently accepted more

peacekeepers with no conditions

● Large peacekeeping force funded by UN

● Serve as barrier between clashing factions

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-sudan-accepts-peacekeepers-conditions-43790852http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/africa/2013/12/20/U-N-says-peacekeeping-base-in-South-Sudan-attacked.html

Disarmament

● Disarm South Sudanese civilians and government as well as Sudan

● Use a buy back based method ○ Funding will come from UN

● Peacekeepers should be arms collectors

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2012/1224/Could-the-US-learn-from-Australia-s-gun-control-laws https://thinkprogress.org/australian-group-calls-for-boycott-of-u-s-until-america-fixes-its-gun-laws-af2468f3cf88#.6o26ev2yu

Truth and Reconciliation Commission

● Parallel The TRC created in South Africa in 1994● The TRC will not only be “given the job of uncovering past wrongdoing,” but its

purpose will be to “facilitate national healing” and unify the Dinka and the Nuer along with all citizens of all genders, class, and race (Barash & Webel, 446 & 496).

● Be developed by South Sudan political elites ● UN will oversee

○ In order to ensure the proper “restoration of a state of peace to the relationship where the

entities are least not harming each other, and can begin to be trusted not to do so in the future”

(Santa-Barbara, 176).

Barash, David P., and Charles P. Webel. Peace and Conflict Studies. SAGE Publications, 2014.Santa-Barbara, Joanna. “Reconciliation.” Handbook of Peace and Conflict Studies. Routledge, 2007, 173-186.

Humanitarian Aid

● IGOs will be there to alleviate immediate sufferings

○ Food, clean water, medical aid○ Internally displaced people

● Assistance and care to people ○ Provide help as much as they can

● Remain neutral

“About South Sudan”. 2016. UNDP.http://blog.zerohungerchallenge.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/04-03-2014SouthSudan.jpg

Integrated Peace Tools Human Rights

● In order to reach peace, human rights have to be at the core of the new democracy and government

● “Human rights and peace are inextricably connected.” (Barash & Webel, 419)

● Create a charter of human rights

○ Based off of the 1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights

● Will clearly lay out the human rights laws in the state

Gendered/Feminist Perspectives● In order to ensure a more

equal and just government in the effort towards peace, gendered/feminist perspectives need to be prioritized

● South Sudan Constitution will include a charter for the creation of South Sudan Women Representation Committee (WPC)

○ representation, incorporation, protection, and recognition (Ellerby)

○ Overseen by the UN

Democratization● Govt. officials operating in

open and transparent fashion that ensures “rule of law”

● Process which “requires that all the key stakeholders be accounted for in the process leading to an agreement”

● President Kiir and VP Machar must agree to ceasefire

● Military action must not become habitual response to disagreement (SPLM/A)

● Continued equal representation for men and women

Barash, David P., and Charles P. Webel. Peace and Conflict Studies. SAGE Publications, 2014.Ellerby, Kara. “A Seat at the Table is not Enough: Understanding Women’s Substantive Representation in Peace Processes.” Peacebuilding, 4, 2, 2016, 136-150.

Sustainable Development

● Economic development○ Industrial conversion: Oil to Water

■ 49,500 million m3/year available renewable water ■ 658 million m3/year water currently used (1%)

○ Water access catalyzes economic development and growth

○ Can sell water to neighbors for revenue

● Environmental protection ○ Oil production ceases ○ Investment in agriculture provides irrigation

■ Impede desertification in the north

○ Expand infrastructure in an environmentally responsible manner

http://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/images

Sustainable Development - Health

● Better health facilities and technology○ IGOs ○ Improve mortality rates ○ Lower rates of malnutrition

■ Affects pregnant women, increases mortality rates

● Delivery of medical supplies ○ Infrastructure

● Establish rehabilitation centers ○ Victims, especially women and children face post

traumatic stress disorders, depression due to sexual

violence and other traumatic experiences

http://blog.giwps.georgetown.edu/womens-health-in-conflict-in-south-sudan/

Sustainable Development - Education● Only 27 percent of people over the age of 15 are literate, most of them men● Realistic United Nations goals for education in South Sudan:

○ Ensuring all boys and girls complete free, equitable, and quality primary and secondary education

○ Ensuring all boys and girls have access to early childhood development and care to ready them for primary school

○ Ensuring equal access for all men and women to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university

○ Eliminate gender disparities in education and ensure equal access to all levels of education and vocational training for the vulnerable, including persons with disabilities, indigenous peoples and children in vulnerable situations

○ Ensure that all youth and a substantial portion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy

United Nations

Sustainable Development - Gender Equality

● Improved literacy rates among women and girls would increase women’s participation in government

● Implementation of appropriate funding in gender-oriented policies ● The UN pledges to protect women’s rights during armed conflicts, prevent

impunity for gender-based crimes, mainstream gender aspects in peacekeeping operations and increase women’s participation in the various phases before, during, and after armed conflicts

http://www.pri.org/region/south-sudan

Critique Peaceful Settlement

● Neutrality factor○ Could either alleviate or exacerbate tensions

● Unfruitful negotiations - conflict continues for longer period of time● Possibility that negotiations might fail and either sides are satisfied with the

outcome○ Conflict would restart

https://paanluelwel2011.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/ceasfire.jpg?w=614

Critique TRC

● Possible ineffective reconciliation between the elites who will heed the TRC

● Will not truly recognize their own role in the creation of the conflict, and therefore, not be able to heal and move forward as a united country.

● Can only be effective if all members who are a part of the TRC are able to realize and recognize their own role in the creation of the conflict

● The TRC requires thorough participation, and if not conducted properly, the Reconciliation process will be significantly flawed, and therefore, ineffective

http://citifmonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/machar-and-kiir-620x330.jpg

Critique Democratization

● Relies heavily on the implementation of previous peace tools (ex. Sustainable development, disarmament)

● Int. orgs must be willing to take on responsibility of helping to restructure South Sudan government

● Requires culture shift

Critique Water and Industrial Conversion

● Transfer from one single industry economy to another ● Relies on water resource being plentiful ● Could become tempting to surpass renewable supply

○ Exhausting supply could increase environmental and economic issues

● Shaky ethical ground selling water to deprived neighbors