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State of the State Survey Spring 2015 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for Public Policy and Social Research [email protected] 517.353.2961
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State of the State SurveySpring 2015
Charles L. BallardProfessor, Department of Economics
Director, State of the State Survey
Institute for Public Policy and Social [email protected]
517.353.2961
State of the State SurveySpring 2015
Confidence in the Economy is Up Strongly,
But Trust in Government Barely Budges
About SOSS Wave 70
966 Interviews Completed
March 26, 2015 – June 22, 2015
Margin of Error: + 3.15%
Consumer confidence indicators improved substantially.
The latest measures are only a few points below their all-time highs from the late 1990s.
Assessments of the current financial situation improved considerably.
12.5
47.4
29.2
6.84.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Excellent Good Just Fair Not So Good Poor
Perc
ent
Michigan Residents' Assessments of Their Current Financial Situation, Spring 2015
60.9
60.2 61.4
64.1 63.9 62.9
62.2
54.0
56.4
54.9
49.3
50.8
43.444.0
47.3 47.3
52.1 52.853.8
51.3
50.5
59.9
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Perc
ent
Percent of Michigan Residents Who Rate Their Current Financial Situation As "Excellent" or "Good", 1995-2015
When asked whether they are better off than one year ago, Michigan residents gave the most favorable responses since 1999.
56.5
22.2 21.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Better Off About the Same Worse Off
Perc
ent
Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are Better Off Than One Year Ago, Spring 2015
52.6
50.2
53.2 55.8
61.6
48.4
40.2
35.431.7
27.4
19.8
14.4
23.026.2
36.340.1
35.538.7
56.5
18.5
17.7
18.1
14.315.2
24.2
31.8
44.544.6
59.662.6
50.6
45.1
35.634.6
31.931.830.2
21.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percen
t
Year
Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are Better Off or Worse Off Than One Year Ago, 1995‐2015
Better Off
Worse Off
Michigan residents’ assessment of whether they will be better off one year from now also are the best since 1999.
Those who think they will be better off outnumber those who think they will be worse off by almost 5 to 1.
69.2
16.314.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Better Off About the Same Worse Off
Perc
ent
Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Will Be Better Off One Year From Now, Spring 2015
57.258.6
65.9
66.6
70.5
60.0
66.2
59.8 60.1
50.5
51.4
45.146.448.6
54.0
48.4
56.954.2
58.856.1
55.9
69.2
13.1 12.3 11.9 9.5 10.7
19.9
14.7
19.1
20.1
26.1
29.2
35.5 34.7 33.1
28.5
30.4
23.225.8
19.9
23.9
21.9
14.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percen
tMichigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Will Be
Better Off One Year From Now, 1995‐2015
Better Off
Worse Off
Despite all of the optimism about the economy, Governor Snyder’s approval ratings decreased slightly.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Excellent Good Fair Poor
5.0
30.6
42.4
22.1
Percen
tMichigan Residents' Ratings of Governor Snyder's Performance,
Spring 2015
44.5
31.5
19.3
33.0
36.835.5
34.0
29.2
35.6
39.237.1 37.9
35.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Percen
tPercentage of Michigan Residents Rating Governor Snyder's
Performance as "Excellent" or "Good,“ 2011‐2015
55.0
50.6
46.7
52.549.5
43.7 43.6
57.2
48.7
35.3
34.4
25.3
23.0
31.0
20.7
31.835.1
32.9
39.237.137.9
35.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percen
t
Year
Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating Performance of Governors as "Excellent" or "Good," 1995‐2015
Engler
Granholm
Snyder
President Obama’s ratings improved.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Excellent Good Fair Poor
12.1
28.226.7
33.1
Percen
tMichigan Residents' Ratings of President Obama's Performance,
Spring 2015
70.7
62.6
53.2
44.2
36.9
43.9
32.7
44.5 44.5
40.4
40.6 41.0 42.8
48.445.2
38.3 39.7 38.4
34.8
40.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percen
tPercentage of Michigan Residents Rating President Obama's
Performance as "Excellent" or "Good," 2009‐2015
35.4
44.3
49.5
56.0
53.0
55.1
40.8
66.9
47.4
42.3
32.4
27.5
20.5
17.3
57.7
36.9
43.1
41.5
44.0
39.7
38.4
34.8
40.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percen
t
Year
Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating U.S. Presidents’ Performance as "Excellent" or "Good," 1995‐2015
Clinton
Bush
Obama
Comparisons of Ratings for President Obama and Governor Snyder
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Excellent Good Fair Poor
12.1
28.226.7
33.1
5.0
30.6
42.4
22.1
Michigan Residents' Ratings of the Performances of President Obama and Governor Snyder,
Fall 2015
Obama
Snyder
70.7
62.6
53.2
44.2
36.9
43.9
32.7
44.5 44.540.4 40.6 41.0
42.8
48.445.2
38.3 39.7 38.4
34.8
40.2
31.5
19.3
33.036.8 35.5 34.0
29.2
35.639.237.1
37.9
35.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percen
tPercentage of Michigan Residents Rating President Obama and
Governor Snyder as "Excellent" or "Good,“ 2009‐2015
Obama
Snyder
Trust in Local Government remains much stronger than trust in either state or federal government.
41.1 39.0
12.0
7.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Percen
tMichigan Residents' Opinions of How Often They Can Trust
Local Government, Spring 2015
19.8
49.0
19.1
12.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Pe
rcen
t
Michigan Residents' Opinions of How Often They Can Trust the State Government, Spring 2015
15.9
38.6
27.6
17.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Percen
tMichigan Residents' Opinions of How Often They Can Trust
the Federal Government, Spring 2015
Trust in Local Government is slightly more favorable than in the last few years.
42.9
39.4
42.2
46.9
37.9
40.5
38.6
41.5
33.1
40.5 38.937.6
35.3
39.0 39.741.1
15.1
18.9
13.914.8
25.1
16.8
20.5
20.0
23.2
17.1
19.3 19.3
18.1
21.424.3
19.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Perc
ent
Year
Michigan Residents' Opinions of How Often They CanTrust Local Government, 1995-2015
Nearly All orMost of theTime
Seldom orAlmost Never
• Trust in State Government has changed little in the last few years.
• But trust in State Government is substantially less than it was in the 1990s and early 2000s.
33.1
31.0
25.3
30.6
36.1 36.2
25.9
29.927.7
17.5
20.0
15.9 15.8
15.9
18.8
17.4
19.8
15.117.7
19.3
16.8
12.1
16.3
16.1 16.5
21.2
24.2
27.8
24.2
37.0
29.6
29.9 30.7 30.9
31.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Perc
ent
Year
Michigan Residents' Opinions of How Often They Can Trust the State Government, 1995-2015
Nearly All or Mostof the Time
Seldom or AlmostNever
Trust in the Federal Government peaked in 2002, just after the September 11 attacks. It has decreased substantially since then.
16.014.5 15.7
24.7
36.8
27.2
19.9
21.5
16.3
24.6
13.2
20.9
11.8
14.8 15.1
15.9
33.431.0 30.8
18.616.1
20.9
27.9
32.9
38.4 37.4
26.9
37.2
29.9
42.5
41.4
48.6
45.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Perc
ent
Year
Michigan Residents' Opinions of How Often They Can Trust the Federal Government, 1995-2015
Nearly All or Mostof the Time
Seldom or AlmostNever
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Local State Federal
41.1
19.815.9
19.9
31.2
45.5
Perc
ent
Michigan Residents' Opinions of How Often They Can Trust Different Levels of Government, Spring 2015
Nearly All orMost of Time
Seldom orAlmost Never
Jobs and the economy are still the most important issue for the Governor and Legislature to address. But the emphasis on the economy is less than it has been in more than a decade.
This year, for the first time, road repair was the second most important issue.
Most Important Problem Facing the Governor and Legislature, Spring 2015
• Jobs / Economy 31.5% • Road Repair / Bridge Repair 19.7• Education Quality / Finances 15.4• Taxes / Reduce Taxes 3.7• Health Care / Health Insurance 3.3• Crime / Drugs / Violence 3.2• Poverty / Homelessness / Social Programs 2.8• Moral Issues / Abortion / Family Values 2.5• Infrastructure of Cities 1.5• Environment 1.3 • Foreign Policy 1.0• Solve Budget Issues 0.9• Foreclosures / Housing / Property Values 0.7• Prescription Drug Coverage for Seniors 0.7• Reduce Size of Government 0.7• Welfare Reform 0.6• Ethics, Political Reform, Election Reform 0.5• Children’s Issues 0.3• Regulation / Deregulation 0.2• Gun Control 0.1
Most Important Problems Facingthe Governor and the Legislature
Issue 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Jobs/Economy 10.5 41.3 44.5 58.3 77.4 59.5 51.9 31.5
Education Quality/School Finances 41.7 27.5 20.7 11.4 7.1 16 19.3 15.4
Health Care/Health Insurance 7.4 7 9.4 4.3 4.4 4.7 1.9 3.3
Road/Highways/Bridges 4.9 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 1.5 19.7
14.410.7
15.1 14.012.6 10.5
22.1
41.3 43.4 44.5
62.9
58.3
64.6
77.4
69.6
59.563.7
51.9 48.7
31.5
17.821.4
24.5 26.2
39.0 41.7
23.2
27.5
21.9 20.716.9
11.4
6.0 7.1
13.7
16.0
13.1
19.316.5
15.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Percen
t
Year
Michigan Residents' Views on the Most Important Issues Facing the Governor and Legislature, 1995‐2015
Jobs and Economy
Education Qualityand Finances
How to Learn More about SOSS:
http://ippsr.msu.edu/SOSS/
Charles Ballard: [email protected]
Cynthia Kyle: [email protected]
Graham Pierce: [email protected]
THANK YOU!
