Similarity searching modell with Excel

Zoltán Varga

PhD student

SZIU

Previous (Classical) model for sales forecast

0. Historical sales data

1. Periodical simple average

2. Smooth step 1 by moving average

3. Smooth step 2 by exponential cleaning 4. Estimation 5. Forecasted values

6. Interpretation to the actual data

Similarity analysis(COCO – Component-based

Object Comparison for Objectivity)

0. Raw OAM (Object-Attribute Matrix

1. Ranked OAM

2. Definition of stair cases (range of results)

3. Definition of difference of neighboring stairs (restrictions)

4. Definition of object function

5. Definition of model error for minimizing

6. Optimizing

The story that lead to the birth of similarity searching model

• EMC 2014

• Katalin Óhegyi and stock market dataset

• Philosophy of similarity by COCO

Similarity searching model

0. Times series

1. tn/tn+1; tn+1/tn+2… ratio

2. Generation of non-overlapping categories

3. Generation of sequences (5 category points at most)

4. Searching for the most similar pair (m) of the last known sequence (n),

and repeated search for the sequence m+1 with its first element is stored

5. First elements of the sequences m+1, 2 ,3…z are

stored until z

6. Evaluating to the actual data by category accuracy and

directional stability

Test on Crude Futures Open

• 184 weeks used to forecast the next 25• 19 categories

Category difference 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 925 cases 4 6 8 4 1 0 1 0 0 1

100,00% 16% 24% 32% 16% 4% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4%

Directional accuracy: 18  

Directional stability: 72%  

Test on Crude Futures Open - Benchmark

• 184 weeks used to find the most common

Test on Crude Futures Open – Benchmark results

• 184 weeks used to forecast the next 25• 19 categories

Category difference 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 925 cases 7 6 5 4 0 2 0 1 0 0

100,00% 28% 24% 20% 16% 0% 8% 0% 4% 0% 0%

Directional accuracy: 14  

Directional stability: 56%  

Test on Crude Futures with Classical

  Open High Low Close

Directional stability 41,67% 50,00% 54,17% 45,83%

Correlation 0,83 0,85 0,90 0,85

Test on sales time series of one product

• 100 weeks used to forecast the next 50• 7 categories

Category difference 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

50 cases 24 17 4 2 1 2 0

100,00% 48% 34% 8% 4% 2% 4% 0%

Directional accuracy: 33  

Directional stability: 66%  

Test on on sales time series of one product - Benchmark

• 100 weeks used to find the most common

Test on sales time series of one product – Benchmark results

• 100 weeks used to forecast the next 50• 7 categories

Category difference 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

50 cases 23 26 1 0 0 0 0

100,00% 46% 52% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Directional accuracy: 30  

Directional stability: 60%  

Summary of tests

• Crude Futures directional stability:– Similarity Searching Model: 72%– Benchmark: 68%

• Product sales time series directional stability:– Similarity Searching Model: 66%– Benchmark: 60%

Thank you for your attention!