Sica Regional Vulnerabilidad-En

8/4/2019 Sica Regional Vulnerabilidad-En

1/28

C E N T R A L A M E R I C A

AND DOMINICAN REPUBL IC

FACING THE CHALLENGES OF

CLIMATE CHANGE

SICA REGIONAL VULNERABILIDAD-en.indd 1 10/3/11 5:41 PM


2/28

Photo: APES_ABROAD



3/28

The region is already facing the impacts of climate variability and is highly vulnerable to climate

change, but it only contributes with less than 0.5% of global net GHG emissions.

If global emissions connue their current tendency, the region will suer even greater economic,

social and environmental losses.

The region has a strategy to adapt in a sustainable and inclusive way, with co-benets for the

transion to low carbon economies.

It has a richness of forests and other ecosystems, nave variees of staple foods, cultural diversity

and youthful populaon, which may contribute to this eort and merit protecon.

The region invites internaonal solidarity partners to parcipate in this eort to strengthen local

capacity building, with funding and facilitang access to the necessary technology.



4/28

The region is alread acing the

impacts o climate variabilit and is

highl vulnerable to climate change,

but it onl contributes with less than

0.5% o global net GHG emissions.

4



5/28

CENTR

ALAMERICAANDDOMINICAN

REPU

BLIC

FACIN

G

THECHALLENGESOFCLIMATECHANGE

5

Socio-economic vulnerabilies of

the region are exacerbated by its

geographical locaon on a narrow

isthmus with long coastlines and

located between two oceans,

the Pacic and Atlanc, with

corresponding climate processes. The

region is severely aected by droughts

and hurricanes, as a result of greater

variability in the phenomenon such as

El Nio-Southern Oscillaon (ENOS)

(increased intensity and frequency

of el Nio and Nia events), and

also by other forces that directlyaect the region such as the Tropical

North Atlanc temperatures, among

others. In the case of the Dominican

Republic, for its status as an island in

the Caribbean is exposed to similar

condions.

In Central America, there is wide evidence of a high variability of annual precipitaon that may be being exacerbated

by climate change. In recent years, it is adding evidence of changes in tradional paerns of intra-annual rainy and dry

seasons, with a more irregular temporal and spaal distribuon of rainfall, with extreme heavy rains in the dry seasonand months with rain decits, when it rained oen, somemes in the same year. Although you can not determine a

pronounced historical tendency of increase or decrease in precipitaon, the large inter-annual variability causes serious

eects on water availability, agricultural producon, hydropower and ecosystems and communies, parcularly in dry

areas. Water availability is also aected by increased evaporaon associated with higher temperatures. Comparing

CentralAmerican CommissionofEnvironmentand Development CCAD

REGIONALENVIRONMENTAL

OBSERVATORYTHE TERRITORY OF THE SICA

MEMBER COUNTRIES

Source: Environmental Systems Research Instute, Inc. (ESRI), World Database DIVA-GIS.

org, Environmental Observatory- CCAD



6/28

6

the average of the three decades between 1950 and

1979 with the following decades, it shows an increase in

temperature of 0.5 C for the region, ranging from 0.3

C in Panama to 0.8 C in El Salvador.

Between 1930 and 2008 the region experienced 248

extreme events associated with climate and hydro

meteorological phenomena. Landslides, extreme

temperatures, droughts and wildre show a rising

tendency since the ninees. In the last two decades, the

frequency of oods has doubled and the frequency of

tropical storms and hurricanes quadrupled compared to

the period from 1970 to 1989.

Climate impacts of El Nio Phenomenon inLatin America and the Caribbean

+0.5+2.50C

+2.5+5.00C

Pelagic fish catchin southeast Pacific

Million tonnes

20

16

12

8

4

01980 1986 1992 1998

Very strong El Nio

+0.5+2.50CIncrease in surface oceantemperature duringthe 1998 El Nio event

Severe droughts

Severe droughts,increased forest fires

Hightemperature

episodes

Scarceprecipitation,

soil moisture deficit

Scarceprecipitation

in rainyseason

Droughtepisodes

Excessiverainfall

Plentiful rainsin spring and

summer

Intense rains

in summer,dryness in theAndean region

Sources: IPCC 2001, FAO 2002,UNEP 2003

In Peru, the 1997-1998 El Nio causedUS$ 3.5 billion economic losses. Fisheryexports dropped by 76 percent.

Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean

United Nations Environment Programme /GRID-Arendal

Source: Climate impacts of El Nio Phenomenon in Lan America and

the Caribbean. (2005). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library

based on IPCC 2001, FAO 2002, UNEP 2003



7/28

CENTR

ALAMERICAANDDOMINICAN

REPU

BLIC

FACIN

G


7

Source: Mean annual precipitaon in Central America (years 1972-1992). Central American Atlas for the integrated management of the territory

PREVDA.2011

Mean annual precipitation in millimeters



8/28

8

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED Internaonal Disaster Database www.emdat.be - Universit Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium



9/28

CENTRALAMERICAANDDOMINICAN

REPU

BLIC

FACIN

G


9

Source: EM-DAT (1930-2009): The OFDA/CRED Internaonal Disaster Database www.emdat.be - Universit Catholique de Louvain - Brussels -

Belgium



10/28

10

Chile central

Andes tropicales

Puente entre

Amrica del Nortey Amrica del Sur

Mesoamrica

El Caribe

Amrica

del Sur

Amricadel Norte

Selva atlntica

Cerradobrasileo

Lan America and the Caribbean: More vulnerable areas

Source: Publicaon of the United Naons/L.320. Climate Change, a regional perspecve, Unity Summit of Lan America and the Caribbean February

2010

Increase of Vulnerability to extreme events(e.g. hurricanes)

The light red areas correspond to sites where biodiversity is

seriously threatened and is likely this tendency to connue inthe future.

Greatest exncon of mammals, birds, bueries and reples(2050)

Coral reefs and mangroves under threat by increased sea

temperatures

Loss of mangroves in coastal lowlands if the sea level rises to

the maximum

Reducon in water availability and in generang energy by the

reducon or disappearance of glaciersAmazon rainforest: by the end of the century 43% of 69 forest

species would be lost. The eastern part would be replaced

Increased aridity and water scarcity

Cerrado (tropical savanna), with increases of 2 C 24% of 138forest species would be lost.

Reducon of land suitable for coee culvaon

Severe process of degradaon and desercaon

The shores of Rio de La Plata threatened by increased storm

waves and sea level

Increased skin cancer by reducing the ozone layer

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)



11/28


REPU

BLIC

FACIN

G


11

The esmated economic losses from extreme events in Central America began about four decades ago. According

to them, eleven hydrometeorological and climate extreme events that aected Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala,

Honduras and Nicaragua have produced losses of $ 13.642 million at 2008 values. Hurricane Mitch, which occurred in

1998, killed more than 9 000 people and directly aected more than 3 million, causing losses esmated at about 8.000

million.

EXTREME EVENTS:HURRICANESCentral American Commission of

Environment and Development CCAD

REGIONALENVIRONMENTAL

OBSERVATORY



12/28

12

Source: World Disasters Report 2010, the Internaonal Federaon of Red Cross and Red Crescent Sociees

Total number of aected by extreme events: 19,316,606

Affected (1990-1999) Affected (2000-2009)

Dominican

Republic



13/28


REPU

BLIC

FACIN

G


13

These extreme events assessments of impacts

and costs have focused on major events.

However, it is esmated that only 9% of the

registered events in Costa Rica, El Salvador,

Guatemala and Panama have been of great

magnitude. The impacts by events of small and

medium magnitude have been more frequent

such as oods and landslides. In Costa Rica

and El Salvador three quarters of mortality

and almost 60% of the aected people are

associated with events of small and medium

magnitude. This kind of disaster is spreading

rapidly into other geographic areas with higher

recurrence, especially in the last 10 years.

As for droughts, praccally there is no poron

of Central America that has not suered in the

past 30 years and there has been a corridor

of severely aected areas in the Pacic slope,

crossing all countries and have high vulnerability

(MARENA-PNUD, 2001, P. Ramrez, 2007, CEPAL,

2001). Dry periods associated with El Nio -

Southern Oscillaon oen cause considerable

damage and loss in all countries of the region,which could intensify in the short term by the

predicted eects of climate change (PNUMA /

PNUD / EIRD / World Bank, 2010).Source: Frequency of ood events in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica

and Panama. Central American Atlas for the integrated management of the

territory PREVDA.2011



14/28

14

Source: Theorecal simulaon of sea level rise in the region, from 1 to 6 meters. Centers for the Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University

of Kansas and Haskell Indian Naons University



15/28


REPU

BLIC

FACIN

G


15

Source: World Risk Report 2011. United Naons University UNU-EHS, Instute for Environment and Human Security

In September 2011, the United Naons University (UNU-EHS) Instute for Environment and Human Security presented

the Global Risk Index, which consists in the analysis of four components, exposure, suscepbility, responsiveness and

adaptaon. This index ranks six of the countries in the region between the rst 25 and 4 of them in the rst 15 of

this index, as countries of Very High Risk (Guatemala -5, Costa Rica 8, El Salvador -10, Nicaragua -11, Honduras -23,

Dominican Republic -24, Panama - 60 and Belize -102).



16/28

16

Similarly Germanwatch organizaon has established a global climate risk index that rates the impact of events such as

storms, oods and droughts on the countries. Based on the absolute number of deaths, number of deaths per 100,000

inhabitants, total losses in USD and losses in proporon of GDP, the index provides a ranking of 177 countries. The country

ranked number 1 is the most vulnerable country in the world. In the period from 2004 to 2009, with the excepon of 2006,six countries of the region occupied one of the rst places in the global climate risk index: Guatemala and El Salvador,

rst place in 2005 and 2009 respecvely, Dominican Republic , the second place in 2004, Nicaragua, third place in 2007,

Honduras, seventh place in 2005, and Belize, the ninth place in 2008, and the average rate for the period 1990-2009

Honduras is in the third place, Nicaragua is in the fourth place, Dominican Republic is in eighth place (Germanwatch, Global

Climate Risk Index, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011).



17/28


REPUBLIC

FACIN

G

THECHALLENGESOFCLIMATECH

ANGE

17

Source : Germanwatch



18/28

I global emissions continue their

current tendenc, the region willsuer even greater economic social

and environmental losses.

18



19/28

CENT

RALAMERICAANDDOMINICAN

REPUBLIC

FACIN

G


ANGE

19

In a future scenario that keeps the current tendency of increasing emissions (IPCC A2 scenario), the region would face

further increases in temperature of 0.8 degrees Celsius over the next twenty years and more than 4 C at the end of

the century, regarding to the average of 1980-2000. Some countries may suer increases of up to 5 C. These scenarios

place the region above the expected global average. Increases greater than 1.5 to 2.0 C generate serious mulsectoralthreats and the region could experience these increases before 2050. The esmated rain path in the coming decades

suggests more annual and interannual variability, with possible minor increases or decreases depending on the country.

However, within the next 40 years it is likely to establish a marked reducon in annual rainfall that may reach 28% at

the end of this century.

As for future scenarios of extreme events, there is sucient evidence of the relaonship between climate change and

its eect of warming sea surface and intensity of storms and hurricanes. Most internaonal studies outline scenarios

with increases of 4% to 12% in the intensity of hurricanes originang in the North Atlanc. For future scenarios in the

region it is suggested to consider an increase in intensity between 5% and 10%, the laer associated with the scenario

that maintains the current tendency of increasing emissions. While in the region there is evidence of increasedfrequency of extreme events, as previously menoned, the IPCC is sll studying the relaonship between frequency of

storms and hurricanes and climate change. If determined, given the tendency in GEI emissions, the region will face not

only more intense events, but even more frequent.

Currently Central America is a privileged region in water availability, but its distribuon among countries and regions

is very uneven, with large intra and interannual variaons. This situaon, associated with rain, alternavely generates

oods and periods of severe drought. Even without climate change, the region will have the challenge to eciently

use these resources due to populaon growth and economic acvity. With the scenario that maintains the current

tendency of rising global emissions, the demand could increase by almost 25% more (percentage above a future

without climate change) and in this scenario, the total renewable water availability will fall more than 60% by 2100. El

Salvador would be the most aected, followed by Honduras and Nicaragua. The combinaon of changes in demand

and availability with climate change, generates a potenal intensity of water use in 2100 well above the threshold

of 20%, internaonally accepted as crical to water stress, and similar to Egypt and some countries of the Arabian

Peninsula today.



20/28

20

This same scenario of increasing global emissions would

adversely aect the agricultural producon and food security

in the region. Corn producon will tend to grow in the short

term, with yields slightly more than 2 tons per hectare, but

then would decrease, possibly reaching 1.4 tons per hectare by

2100. The average yield of beans may decline more than 0.7

to less than 0.1 tons per hectare by 2100. Rice producon will

tend to fall from the historical average of 3.5 tons per hectare

to between 2 and 1 ton per hectare if no adaptaon measures

are taken. These three products are key to food security in

these sociees, parcularly for its poor people, aecng both

producers and consumers.

The region of Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are two ofthe twenty ve major sites of biodiversity in the world. In

Mesoamerica, nearly 8% of the worlds terrestrial species

are found in less than 1% of the landmass (Mauri, 2002).

In the marine area the region has the second set of most

important coral reefs worldwide. According to recent studies

the Dominican Republic has 5.600 species of vascular plants,

of which 36% are endemic. This biodiversity is a fundamental

asset that contributes to the welfare of sociees and to some

extent compensates for the limited access of the poor people to

necessary goods for survival through the market.

Along with other pressures such as deforestaon, climate

change poses a major threat to the regions species and

ecosystems. Because of that, there will be displacement of the

Photo: WALLYGROM



21/28

CENT


REPUBLIC

FACIN

G


ANGE

21

rain forest, changes in the wilderness and in the very humid tropical forest and an expansion of very dry tropical forest.

Using a Potenal Biodiversity Index for the region, it was found that these condions would be reduced about 13%

during this century even without climate change, parcularly unl 2050, due to the change in land use. However, with

the tendency scenario of connued increases in GEI emissions, these condions would decline almost 30% by 2050and 60% by 2100. The countries most aected would be Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Honduras. This loss

would aect essenal services necessary also to economic acvity, such as water availability, pollinaon of crops and

coastal protecon against hurricanes, in the case of coral reefs and mangroves.

Climate change impacts in the region in a scenario of increasing emissions and global inacon are signicant and

increasing. This increasingly will aect the economic development of the region and its eorts to reduce poverty and to

undertake more sustainable paths of development. It would conrm that the asymmetry of most developed countries

that have polluted the atmosphere have less impact and have the resources to adapt. In contrast, countries that have

contributed least to the problem suer greater impacts and have less resilience. It also conrms the proposed costs of

impacts in a scenario of global inacon; parcularly in countries with high emissions, would be higher than those of ascenario with an internaonal equitable and inclusive agreement that would signicantly achieve emissions reducon.

It should be an agreement with common but dierenated responsibilies, as envisaged in the UN Framework

Convenon on Climate Change, in order to facilitate the most exposed countries to take migaon and adaptaon

measures in a context of sustainable development.



22/28

The region has a strateg to adapt in a sustainable and

inclusive wa, with co-benefts or the transition to low

carbon economies.

It has a richness o orests and other ecosstems, native

varieties o staple oods, cultural diversit and outhul

population, which ma contribute to this eort and merit

protection.

22



23/28

CENT


REPUBLIC

FACIN

G


ANGE

23

The region faces a signicant challenge to adapt to climate change because it requires further eorts to reduce poverty,

inequality and economic and environmental vulnerability, and to build resilience and adapve capacity of sociees,

specic populaons and ecosystems. It is of utmost importance to achieve naonal, regional and internaonal

agreements, to promote sustainable and inclusive strategies of adaptaon that integrate reducon acons ofvulnerabilies with the adaptaon ones and transion measures to more sustainable economies and low-carbon.

The current global economic downturn and climate change risks require a deep review of the regional producve

matrix of the economies. This would include reviewing the forms of integraon to regional and global markets. It

requires an assessment of the linkages between energy paerns and negave externalies caused by contaminang

emissions, not limited to greenhouse gases (GHGs) but also considering damages and losses in public health, crops,

rural and urban infrastructure, and degradaon of ecosystems, with associated loss in ecosystem services.

The region needs to move towards sustainable economies, low-carbon and ecient management and use of natural

resources, introducing structural and technological changes around the axes of security and energy eciency,integrated water resources management and reducing deforestaon, plus the adopon of diverse and resilient

eco-ecient agroforestry systems. Public policies in the region are already responding by incorporang adaptaon

to climate change and developed strategies for reducing poverty and inequality, including the axes of food security,

integrated management of water resources and reduce impacts of extreme events.

The protecon of biodiversity and ecosystems to ensure the permanent provision of eco-systemic services is a key focus

for both low-carbon economies and to adapt. On the other hand, to build resilience and cope with increasing climate

variability, ambious restoraon programs of degraded areas are needed, primarily in the Pacic slope of Central

America showing a serious environmental degradaon and having the majority of the populaon of the isthmus.

As noted, the region has important collecons that may be key to climate change adaptaon, as its rich biodiversity, the

dierent strategies of life and its high cultural wealth, including the indigenous and African descent. Central America

is center of origin and center of diversity of valuable genec resources of great value to agriculture and food, like corn

and beans, among others. With this heritage, the region strives to adopt a holisc approach that opmizes the use of



24/28

24

their natural and social capital to build resilience to climate

change eects. In this approach it is fundamental to value

the ability of the populaon, predominantly young, which

requires access to educaon, social services and decentemployment opportunies.

To achieve the required goal of adaptaon it is urgent a

sustained adequate funding, proacve measures, proacve

scal policy, changes in construcon standards, infrastructure

and equipment. And, as the cornerstone, the region is

striving to seize the opportunies of integraon, parcularly

essenal in the management of water resources, food and

energy security, compeveness, trade and internaonal

negoaons.

In this context, in 2008 the Heads of State and Government

of member countries of the Central American Integraon

System, SICA, gathered in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, took

their polical commitment by stang: ... aware that climate

change is one of the most serious problems facing humanity,

its impacts threaten the economic and social development,

and also increases the vulnerability of our populaons and

their livelihoods, we decide to begin a process of broad

parcipaon by all sectors of society to build a common

strategy to address the impacts of climate change ...



25/28

CENT


REPUBLIC

FACIN

G


ANGE

25

From this mandate and subsequent analysis and consultaon processes, the region, led by their Heads of State and

Government, and the Council of Ministers of Environment of the Central American Commission on Environment and

Development (CCAD), designs and approves its Regional Strategy on Climate Change (ERCC) in 2010. This strategy

is structured in the areas of vulnerability reducon and adaptaon, migaon, capacity strengthening and educaon,communicaon and cizen parcipaon. Regarding adaptaon, it has nine strategic areas: risk management, agriculture

and food security, forest ecosystems and biodiversity, water resources, public health, coastal-marine resources,

tourism, towns, ethnic and African descent communies and public infrastructure. In the eld of migaon, acon

lines are taken in renewable sources and reducing emissions in power generaon, agriculture, transportaon and solid

waste, carbon sequestraon in forests and cleaner producon and consumpon.

At sectoral level, the regional authories have taken steps to account climate change into their strategies. The Agro

Environmental and Health Regional Strategy (ERAS) was prepared under the leadership of the council of Ministers of

Agriculture through the Central American Agricultural Council (CAC) of Environment, by CCAD and Health, convened

in the Council of Ministers of Health of Central America and Dominican Republic (COMISCA).All of them are organsof SICA. ERAS is based on ve interrelated strategic axes: Sustainable Land Management, Climate Change and Climate

Variability, Biodiversity, Agroenvironmental Business, Spaces and Healthy Lifestyles.

The Heads of State and Government of the region and the Ministers of Energy adopted in 2007, the Central American

Sustainable Energy Strategy 2020, with various future scenarios and an array of acons.This strategy aims to expand

regional renewable energy sources, including hydropower, wind, geothermal and imported natural gas. It is the rst

sectoral regional strategy that considers GHG emissions and proposes a reducon of the same on a future baseline

scenario. It also integrates goals of public access to electricity and of energec eciency. Other important plans

include the Regional Strategic Program for Forest Ecosystem Management (PERFOR), the Environmental Plan for the

Region of Central America (PARCA) and the Regional Biodiversity Strategy (ERB).



26/28

26

Recently the American Life Corridor (CBM/CVC) was relaunched to promote social parcipaon and good governance of

natural assets, sustainable agricultural producon and food security, integrated management of water resources, reducing

vulnerability and promong risk management and adaptaon and migaon towards the impacts of climate change.

Each country in the region has also made eorts to develop naonal climate change policy, with variaons suited to their

needs, and to alert the various naonal sectors on its implicaons. Every single day more organizaons are becoming aware

of this threat, sck to the eort of building a healthier model of development, safe and durable, which main objecve is to

seek the welfare of the people of Central America and Dominican Republic.

The region invites internaonal solidarity partners to acvely parcipate in this eort, to enhance the

capacity building and local and regional eorts, with funding and facilitang access to the necessary

technology.



27/28

BIBLIOGRAPHy

CCAD. (2009). Estrategia Regional de

Cambio Climco. San Salvador, El

Salvador.

CEPAL. (2010). La Economa del

Cambio Climco en Centroamrica,

Sntesis 2010. (A. Brcena, A. Prado,

H. Beteta , J. Samaniego, & J. Lennox,

Edits.) Ciudad de Mxico: Mxico.

Regional Water Resources

Commiee, IMPACTS AND

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGEAND EXTREME EVENTS IN CENTRAL

AMERICA (AIACC-LA06), 2006

Ramirez, P. Zarate, E. 2006. 2005:

Year of hydrometeorological records

in Central America. Regional Water

Resources Commiee (CRRH-AIACC-

LA06). San Jose, Costa Rica.

Aguilar, E., T.C. Peterson, P. Ramrez

Obando, R. Frutos, J.A. Retana, M.

Solera, J. Solely, I. Gonzlez Garca

and co-authors, 2005: Changes

in precipitaon and temperature

extremes in Central America and

northern South America, 1961-2003.



28/28

Central American Integration Sstem - SICACentral American Commission on Environment and Development - CCAD

Boulevard Orden de Malta Sur No. 470, Urbanizacin Santa Elena,Antiguo Cuscatln, La Libertad El Salvador.

Telfono (503) 2248 8800 Fax: (503) 2248 8894www.sica.int/CCAD/ www.ccad.wsCorreo electrnico: [email protected]

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ccad.sica

This publication was made thanks to the support o

Sica Regional Vulnerabilidad-En

Documents

Transcript of Sica Regional Vulnerabilidad-En