SHP2016 - PSA Economic Need

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STONE HILLPARK LIVE WORK PLAY

A brighter future for

Thanet and East Kent

SHP1-4.2

Planning StatementAddendum:Economic Need



Contents

May 2016 gva.co.uk 2

Contents

1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 3

2. SUB-REGIONAL CONTEXT .............................................................................................. 7

3. LOCAL ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS .................................................. 22

4. EMPLOYMENT LAND IN EAST KENT ............................................................................ 30

5. FUTURE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL AND DRIVERS. ...................................................... 37

6. FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL ..................................................................................... 41

7. THE APPLICATION SITE OPPORTUNITY ..................................................................... 47

8. EXAMPLES OF ‘SUPPLY LED’ GROWTH ..................................................................... 51

9. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 61



Planning Statement Addendum: Economic Need


1. Introduction

1.1 The Application site was, until 2014, operated as a commercial airport with limited

passenger and businesses services flying into and out of the airport. The airport

ceased to function in May 2014 as a result of falling usage, a long term trend that the

airport has never been able to successfully reverse. The closure of the airport resulted

in approximately 144 redundancies. Since closure all operational assets have been

disposed and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) commercial aerodrome licence

surrendered.

1.2

As a result the prospects of returning to an operational airport use are low, particularly

one that would be financially self-sustaining. Since its closure the airport site has been

purchased by a new owner. Recognising the lack of a viable future as an airport the

new owner is, therefore, seeking to make best use of the land and wider infrastructure

assets. As such, alternative uses for the Application site are being explored.

1.3 Having been commissioned to review the economic potential of the former Manston

airport site it is Bilfinger GVA‟s strong belief that there is a need to fundamentally revisit

the economic future for East Kent following the closure of Manston Airport. Much ofthe previous economic evidence for the sub-region (and Thanet in particular) has

been founded on the assumption that Manston would continue to function.

1.4

As has been demonstrated by the closure of the airport and subsequent feasibility

reviews by Thanet District Council, these assumptions are no longer sound. It is

therefore crucial to understand how the former Manston airport site1 could continue

to play an important role in the Thanet and East Kent economy despite the cessation

of aviation activity.

1.5 Given the scale of the Application site any future employment role will

understandably be influenced by (and influence) economic and business

performance at the county-wide and East Kent level as well as those within Thanet

1Henceforth referred to as the Application site in this report





itself. It is therefore vital that any future understanding of the economic potential is

rooted in a combination of strategic and local trends.

1.6

The loss of the airport, the strengthening of the Kent economy, the range of new localeconomic drivers in East Kent and the potential to deliver major new economic

capacity in the District within the Application site suggest that the approach to

economic growth and employment land allocations could and should be

reconsidered.

1.7

This report provides a series of analytical steps and outputs to identify the potential

economic opportunity for Thanet and the Application site specifically. It considers a

range of influences and drivers on the local economy and property market that could

drive the economy in a direction that is substantially different to that envisaged within

the TDC‟s existing evidence base.

1.8 The report, in line with the strategic guidance provided by the NPPF and NPPG, then

draws on this information to provide an enhanced employment land forecast that

helps to inform the opportunity at the Application site and support the allocation of

additional employment capacity beyond the expectations of the existing evidence

base.

1.9 The forecasting approach considers specific sectoral impacts and opportunities that

have been identified through the initial research. The forecast considers the

employment land impacts of a different scale and mix of growth in key opportunity

sectors that the existing evidence base has not addressed. As such it provides a

starting point for a new way of thinking about Thanet‟s economic future and role in

the Kent-wide market.

1.10

Overall, drawing each strand of evidence together into a single forecast, the report

demonstrates that, by considering an alternative future for the Application site TDC

can achieve growth that is equal, if not greater, than could be achieved with

Manston continuing to operate as a loss-making airport, which is clearly not an

option.





Section 9 – Conclusions sets out the strategic findings and basis for allocating the

Application site for future employment development





2. Sub-regional Context

2.1

This chapter sets out an understanding of the broad context for the future of the

Application site in terms of the regional and sub-regional economic strategy and

direction set by Kent County Council and the South East LEP. It considers the wider

economic setting by looking into the state of Kent and its sub region ‟s economy. To

identify potential opportunities and competition for Manston it addresses: inward

investment drivers, economic forecasts, the commercial property market and

regional comparator sites.

2.2 These are all likely to influence development at the Application site. Importantly they

will also help identify where Manston can deliver growth that is additional within the

East Kent sub-region rather than duplicating or substituting what could already be

achieved elsewhere.

Key Findings

Kent has a strong base of manufacturing and industrial activity that underpins

employment within the County.

Future growth forecasts highlight that employment within advanced manufacturing,

transport and distribution sectors is likely to grow, further strengthening the importance

of the sector to the Kent economy.

Property market trends demonstrate ongoing requirements for industrial space, much

of which is currently not met by the existing supply portfolio.

The future supply pipeline is constrained in terms of its:

o Scale

o Focus of activity

o Type of offer Demand for large industrial sites and units is strong, but supply has decreased.

There are limited „strategic sites‟ within Kent that can offer scale, accessibility and links

to key economic drivers.

Implications

A lack of sites could limit the growth potential of the County in the future.

Supply within East Kent is particularly weak meaning its economy could continue to

lose ground compared to the Thames Gateway and Ashford/Maidstone.

Manston, therefore, provides a strategic opportunity to broaden the supply portfolio in

East Kent and attract activity that would otherwise go elsewhere.





The Application Site

2.3 The Application site is strategically well located in the district of Thanet, within the East

Kent sub region2 (Figure 1). The Application site lies at the centre of the sub region‟s

core economic drivers of Canterbury, the Ports of Dover and Ramsgate, and the

growing knowledge cluster at Discovery Park.

Figure 1: The county of Kent and districts

2.4 The Application site itself occupies approximately 320 Ha of land that includes the

former operational airport, its runway, ancillary service areas, buildings and

operational spaces. The eastern edge of the Application site is located approximately

2 miles west of Ramsgate port. It is on the edge of the Ramsgate urban area,

surrounded by open space and agricultural land.

2.5 The Application site benefits from excellent road links, and has benefitted from

significant investment in the local road network via the East Kent Access Improvement

Scheme. The B2050 (Manston Road) runs through the Application site connecting to

2 East Kent Sub-region includes the borough of Thanet, Dover, Canterbury, Ashford and Shepway.

TheManstonSite





the A299 to the south, which in turn connects to Canterbury to the West (via the A28)

and Sandwich and Dover to the South (via the A256).

Kent Economic Context

2.6 Kent County comprises thirteen local authorities. It can be broadly characterised into

three main sub-regions- East Kent, West Kent and the Thames Gateway3. Kent County

Council has responsibility for setting the strategic direction for economic growth within

the County, working in partnership with the district-level authorities and the South East

LEP.

Economic Aspirations

2.7

The County Council has set ambitious growth targets and aspirations for economic

progress in terms of the scale of growth, physical regeneration and sector

development. In general, through successive economic and regeneration strategies

the approach adopted has been to align housing and economic growth, providing a

more sustainable approach to growth over the long term.

2.8

Kent is playing a leading role in the South East LEP area economy, through brownfield

opportunities in the Thames Gateway, major knowledge hubs such as Discovery Park

(one of two Enterprise Zones within the SELEP area), first class higher education

provision, maximising HS1 opportunities and regenerating its coastal communities.

2.9 From major office aspirations aligned to Ebbsfleet and Ashford International Stations

to large distribution parks in Swale and Medway there is a significant quantum of the

full range of B class floorspaces permitted on major new strategic employment sites.

Main Industries in Kent

2.10 Table 1 shows employment by industry in Kent in 2013, the latest available data. It

shows that Kent‟s major strength (in terms of scale of employment) is within the

3 East Kent comprises of Ashford, Canterbury, Dover, Shepway and Thanet. West Kent includes Maidstone, Tunbridge

Wells, Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks; and Thames Gateway includes Dartford, Gravesend, Swale, Medway,Sheerness





Wholesale and Retail sector, with almost 20% of the population employed in this single

sector.

2.11

More broadly there is also a strong representation of employment in production andrelated activities such as manufacturing and transport and storage, highlighting the

ongoing attractiveness of the County to these activities.

Table 1: Employment by Industry (2014)

Industry %

G : Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles andmotorcycles

18.3%

Q : Human health and social work activities 12.4%

P : Education 10.2%

N : Administrative and support service activities 8.9%

I : Accommodation and food service activities 7.4%

M : Professional, scientific and technical activities 6.7%

C : Manufacturing 6.4%

F : Construction 6.3%

H : Transportation and storage 5.6%

O : Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 4.1%

K : Financial and insurance activities 3.4%

J : Information and communication 2.5%

R : Arts, entertainment and recreation 2.3%

S : Other service activities 2.0%L : Real estate activities 1.9%

E : Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediationactivities

0.8%

D : Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 0.4%

A : Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.3%

B : Mining and quarrying 0.1%

T : Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods-andservices-producing activities of households for own use

0.0%

U : Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies 0.0%

Source: NOMIS, 2014 – Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding

Future Economic Focus

2.12 Kent‟s future economic growth is likely to be focussed on building upon its existing

strengths and assets. This will draw on the County‟s existing business and employment

base, the knowledge assets it accommodates and the strategic connections the

County offers both to the UK and Europe. Future directions will be built on the

County‟s potential (and existing strength) as a value added manufacturing sector, its





increasingly modernised land based sector, the life sciences and wider creative and

professional service occupations.

2.13

Each of these sectors have unique drivers in terms of location and growthopportunities. Kent is well placed to meet all of these; however it is impossible for all

places to attract all activities given differing local circumstances. The East Kent

economy has traditionally been underpinned by the production activities of

manufacturing and engineering, agriculture and food production, pharmaceuticals

and tourism. Given local skills, infrastructure endowments, business assets and land

supply it is these sectors that can evolve and drive future growth.

2.14 As key elements of the Kent economy, and a key opportunity for East Kent, it is

important to understand how some of these sectors will perform in the future to

understand if there is potential for growth. By considering the Experian Business

Strategies Local Market forecasts we can identify how the Kent economy (and

employment levels) will change. As shown in Figure 2 there are positive prospects for

the three core sectors of advanced manufacturing, wholesale and land and

transport activities.

Figure 2: Sector Growth in Kent-2011-2031 (Change from base year)

Source: Experian, 2016





2.15 These forecasts support the earlier findings of the Rebalancing Kent Report (KCC,

2010) that forecasted positive growth in Transport and Logistics, advanced

manufacturing, the land-based economy and creative and digital industries in order

to boost Kent‟s comparatively low GVA.

2.16 The KCC report also highlighted a strength in low carbon and environmental goods

and services (LCEGS) for Kent, highlighting the renewable energy potential of the

Thames Estuary in particular. The LCEGS sector is predicted to grow 4-5% from 2010-

2018.

2.17 Importantly, whilst the LCEGS sector hasn‟t grown as quickly as the Rebalancing Kent

Report envisaged (largely as a result of uncertainty relating to Phase 3 wind arrays off

the Kent Coast) there remain opportunities to harness this sector, particularly at

Ramsgate, as we consider later. Importantly for this report we would expect many of

the LCEGS jobs growth to occur within the advanced manufacturing sector, as such

future prospects for both are considered together.

Business Demography in Kent

2.18 Kent is described as a „county of small and medium sized enterprises‟ within the KCC

regeneration framework. The economy is made up of 50,000 VAT registeredbusinesses, 98% of which have fewer than 100 employees. This gives the county an

advantage in terms of attracting innovative and entrepreneurial firms to Kent, which

are key to driving forward growth in the high value sectors. Forming dynamic and

open relations with businesses to enable them to „grow and thrive‟ is set out as a

priority.

Kent Property Market and Inward Investment Trends

2.19

The scale of opportunity at Manston suggests that it can introduce a new form of

economic hub into East Kent. It provides sufficient scale and profile to be a major

addition to East Kent‟s business location portfolio, reducing any local displacement

issues by diversifying rather than duplicating location opportunities. Whilst it will

provide space for local businesses it also provides an opportunity to make a more

strategic offer to occupiers and can attract major new inward investment into Thanet

and East Kent.





Figure 3: Property demand by Sector

Source: 2015 Kent Property Market

Sub-regional Demand and Supply Trends

2.25 The KPMR identified that demand was spread across Kent, albeit dominated by the

Thames Gateway and the Maidstone/Ashford area, which between them accounted

for 32% of industrial demand and 50% of office demand. East Kent showed weaker

performance with only 17% of activity within the sub-region as shown in Figure 4 for

industrial space and 33% of office demand (largely led by Discovery Park).





Figure 4: Total office and industrial property demand by sub region


2.26

East Kent shows the most polarised share of demand with a considerably higher level

of floorspace demand for industrial property than office, with demand almost 10

times higher. It also has a stark difference in size requirements for industrial premises,

with a much higher average unit size per project – estimated to be in excess of

2,100sqm compared to 2,000sqm in West Kent, c.1,700sqm in Thames Gateway and

c.1,600sqm in Maidstone/Ashford.

2.27 However, the KPMR notes a strategic challenge for East Kent in terms of supply, with a

weaker supply of office and industrial properties in 2015 compared with the other sub

regions as shown in Figure 5.

2.28 In terms of supply, there is a considerable range of space identified as available

within East Kent however there are a number of issues in terms of the nature, quality

and size of space available.





Figure 5: Property Supply by sub region June 2015


2.29 The greatest number of properties overall were available in the Thames Gateway

(31%), followed by East Kent (25%), West Kent (23%) and Maidstone/Ashford (21%).

2.30 The KPMR notes that across Kent the supply of space in larger sizebands (particularly

in excess of 10,000sqm) has contracted significantly whilst demand has increased.

Strategic Offer in Kent and its Sub-regions

2.31

Above we have considered the strategic demand context that will influence

commercial property activity across Kent in the future. However, understanding that

there is demand for industrial space only considers one side of the equation. To

understand and demonstrate a likely future for the Application site we must also

consider what opportunities already exist to accommodate the forms of demand

identified.

2.32 Kent has a large portfolio of „strategic‟ industrial and business sites spread across the

county that includes 19 business parks, 9 industrial parks, 6 major mixed use

developments, 3 large-scale regeneration sites and 3 major science parks. Beneath

this strategic level there are a large number of smaller, more locally focussed

employment locations.





2.33 Locate in Kent (maintain a register of strategic employment opportunities for inward

investment purposes, these are shown in Figure 6

Figure 6: Major Sites- Locate in Kent

Source: Locate in Kent, 2015

2.34

The Locate in Kent register keeps track of all types of strategic employment sites, from

major office locations through to specialist science parts. Therefore not all of the 41

sites will be targeting similar types of activity that the East Kent market is likely to

attract. To provide a better understanding of where the Application site may fit into

the Kent portfolio we have identified the sites that most closely compare to Manston

in terms of scale, nature, likely occupiers and location, these are shown in Table 2.





Table 2: List of Comparator Sites

Subregion

LocalAuthority

Scheme/ Site Use Class

Gross

Area

(Ha)

Development

Capacity Area

(sqm)- approx..

Ashford Sevington B1c, B2, B8 49.9Industrial- 86,700

and office- 60500

East Kent

Dover

Discovery

Park

Enterprise

Zone

B1, B2, B8 81Up to 120,000sqm

of employmentgenerating space

White Cliffs

Business ParkB1, B2, B8 57 120,000

ShepwayLink

Enterprise

Park

B1, B2, B8 32.4 52,000

ThamesGateway

Medway

Rochester

AirportB1, B2, B8 6.4 21,600

London

Medway

CommercialPark

B1, B2, B8 92 190,000

SwaleG Park

SittingbourneB1, B8 50 61,000

2.35 It is our estimation that there are 7 sites across Kent that provide a similar scale or

nature of operation to what could be achieved at Manston. However, of these one is

Discovery Park, which although of a significant scale, is unlikely to be a comparator as

it seeks to utilise its assets as a major hub for the Knowledge Economy. The

Masterplan for Discovery Park is seeking to attract a different form of growth that is

most likely to be driven by uses within B1 use classes, there are also limitations to the

scale of single occupier activity given wider site and development considerations.

2.36 Therefore, in reality, there are only likely to be 6 comparator sites. There is also the

potential for greater activity at Thamesport on the Hoo Peninsula (Medway) however

these are not yet confirmed so cannot be considered at this point.





2.37 Overall, the largest concentration of opportunity lies within the Thames Gateway on

two sites, one within Swale and one in Medway. Within East Kent the White Cliffs

Business Park provides the most significant available capacity followed by Link Park, it

is notable that there is no strategic capacity identified within Thanet. Below we

consider each offer in more detail.

2.38

Sevington (Ashford)-Sevington is a c. 50 Ha site in Ashford at a prominent location

close to the M20 Junction 10. The site has identified capacity for industrial space and

can accommodate in the region of 86,700 sqm of floorspace. The site is also

expected to deliver high quality office uses of 60,500 sqm.

2.39 However, whilst capacity exists there are major barriers to delivery. Currently there is

no access to the site for its employment use and delivery of the full capacity is

dependent on the delivery of a new junction on the M20 (10a).

2.40 The site is also currently relatively remote from services and facilities; however this is

likely to change with the mixed use development of the adjacent Waterbrook site,

however this is yet to commence.

2.41 White Cliffs Business Park -Phase 2 and Phase 3 (Dover): White Cliffs Business Park

Phase 2 and Phase 3 are planned extensions to the existing White Cliff Business Park

totalling 57ha of land. Phase 1 includes modern office/ light industrial facilities. The

extension will provide total capacity of 120,000 sqm of new commercial floorspace.

The sites have been identified for mainly B1 and B2 employment use. There are

potential utilities constraints on the site relating to the suitability of electricity and

water supply capacity.

2.42 Link Enterprise Park (Shepway): Link Park (32.4 ha) is a large allocated extension to the

Lympne Industrial Estate, the first phase of which is currently under construction. The

remaining undeveloped land has outline permission for 52,000sqm for B1-B8 uses. The

site benefits from reasonable road access and a lack of any conflicting uses nearby,

however it is relatively remote from the main trunk road network.

2.43 There are no obvious development constraints and it adjoins an established

distribution site. However, take up of the new units under construction has been

relatively slow.





2.44 Rochester Airport: Underpinned by BAE Systems and the new Medway Innovation

Centre the aspiration for the Airfield is to develop a cluster of high technology and

advanced manufacturing activities. Rochester Airfield is seen as an ideal „edge of

ur ban‟ business location with good transport links.

2.45 On 23 January 2014 Medway Council approved the Rochester Airport Masterplan, it

identifies potential for a range of B1, B2 and B8 uses, with capacity for 21,600 sqm of

new employment floorspace on 6.4 Ha of employment land.

2.46

London Medway Commercial Park (Medway): The site is 92 Ha, with an estimated

capacity to accommodate approx. 190,000 sqm of B2-B8 employment space with

particular opportunities for „heavy industries‟ and manufacturing activities linked to

both the existing Kingsnorth power station and the port. London Medway is situated

on the south side of the Hoo Peninsula in Medway approximately 6 miles from the M2.

The site is connected to the M2 motorway at Junction 1 via the dualled A228 and

A289.

2.47 The existing planning consent identifies 11 different development plots varying in size

from 1.2 Ha to 25 Ha. There have been recent investments in access infrastructure

and site servicing. Recent planning applications suggest that private sector demand

is growing, and it is anticipated demand will be driven by low carbon and port

related activities.

2.48

G Park, Sittingbourne (Swale): G Park is a 50Ha distribution scheme by Gazeley. G Park

Sittingbourne occupies a strategic position in the South East with proximity to major

trunk routes, rail and port facilities, The development is situated 5 miles to the north of

Junction 5 of the M2.

2.49

The site is being promoted for B1, B2 and B8 floorspace. The current major occupier is

an 85,000 sqm Morrison‟s distribution unit with capacity of the remaining plots

estimated to be 61,000 sqm.

2.50 Eurolink and Kemsley: These large, established industrial estates have

accommodated a significant level of manufacturing and distribution growth and can

accommodate up to a further 300,000 sqm of additional floorspace, predominantly in

B2/ B8 use classes.





2.51 Whilst there is significant capacity within the identified portfolio it is clear that each

faces its own challenges to delivery or, in some cases, has a distinct market offer that

may prevent it attracting particular uses. Kingsnorth provides the most clear

comparator to the potential offer at Manston both in terms of its scale, connectivity

and sector focus. However, as we will consider next, Manston is much better located

in terms of its potential relationship to existing economic hubs and drivers.

Summary and Conclusion

2.52

Our analysis of the Kent context highlights that the strengths of the County economy

remain within the production sectors. Employment is concentrated within a number

of manufacturing, transport and distribution activities that reflect both the local skill

base and the strategic connections the County offers to the UK and Europe.

2.53 As shown by the Kent Property Market Report demand for commercial floorspace

within the County remains strong, with a significant focus on larger industrial premises.

East Kent in particular has attracted ongoing demand, but is challenged in terms of its

potential supply.

2.54 Industrial activity forms a key element of the future growth strategy for Kent, as

articulated by KCC, both in terms of retaining and growing existing activity but also inattracting new growth sectors to the County. In particular there are strong growth

prospects for future activity within the „green economy‟, advanced manufacturing

and transport sectors, all of which are forecast to experience employment growth in

Kent up to 2031.

2.55

However, whilst demand is forecast to continue there are limited significant

opportunities to accommodate this growth. There are few sites within Kent that can

provide the scale of opportunity and existing infrastructure and accessibility required

to meet demand, especially in the short to medium term.





3. Local Economic and Employment Analysis

3.1

In the previous sections we have considered the strategic economic drivers and

competition for the Application site. This identified that there is strong existing and

forecast demand for industrial and distribution activity across Kent, but a number of

weaknesses in the property supply portfolio.

3.2 The Application site has a number of competitive advantages when compared to

other strategic sites and offers the potential to attract inward investment into Thanet.

In order to understand the potential scale and nature of demand it is important to

Key Findings

The economic context for Thanet is challenged and is characterised by

o Low employment levels

o High unemployment

o Low skills

o High out-commuting to neighbouring areas

o High out-migration of working age residents

The District maintains a strong base of industrial and manufacturing employment that

has strengthened in key sub-sectors during the recession.

Thanet has experienced a loss of industrial floorspace provision since 2000 whilst Dover

has grown its stock, weakening Thanet‟s competitive position in East Kent.

There is a lack of supply of large, serviced, development ready sites within Thanet and

East Kent that are orientated towards manufacturing, engineering and distribution

activity.

Implications

There is a potential opportunity to utilise the latent economic potential within the

resident workforce locally by broadening the range and choice of employment

opportunities.

The existing business and employment base provides a range of skills locally that can

attract further industrial activity.

There is a qualitative need for a different type of employment land provision that

could improve the Thanet offer and attract new occupiers to the District and East Kent

more generally.





consider the specific local economic drivers that will assist in attracting occupiers to

the area.

3.3

Therefore to begin to identify an alternative economic future for Thanet which has aregenerated Manston site at its heart it is vital to understand the local context in more

detail. By developing this understanding we can understand how the Application site

can broaden local opportunities and provide a different offer to the existing portfolio

of employment land, increasing employment without simply substituting demand from

other Thanet and East Kent locations.

3.4 Our next step therefore is to appraise Thanet‟s local economy, its drivers, employment

growth, and commercial land supply and demand provision alongside that of the

neighbouring East Kent districts.

Socioeconomic Snapshot of Thanet

3.5

Thanet comprises of 3 main coastal towns – Margate, Broadstairs and Ramsgate, and

a new centre, Westwood, located in the centre of the district, equidistant to the main

coastal towns. Thanet has a number of other coastal and rural villages. The district is

bounded by 32 km of coastline on its north and east sides, and to the south and west

lies the former Wansum Channel separating the district from its neighbours of Doverand Canterbury.

3.6 In terms of accessibility, the district has good road links to London and the M25, via

the A299 (dual carriageway) and A2/M2 and M20. The district is well connected by

train to Canterbury, Dover, Ashford and London via HS1. The travel time to London St

Pancras from Ramsgate is 76 minutes.

3.7 It is recognised by local and strategic public sector authorities that Thanet suffers from

severe socioeconomic challenges. It has had a consistently high unemployment rate

and claimant count, which at 6.4% is almost double the UK average.

3.8 Reflecting the nature of employment locally, where there is a high share of

employment in seasonal sectors such as tourism, there is high proportion of part time

workers in Thanet. In 2011 there were 40% part time workers in Thanet compared with

33.4% in England.





3.9 Thanet has experienced significant decline in employment in recent years, with

employment rates falling faster than the UK average. Consequently unemployment

has historically been above the UK average in Thanet and this gap is widening.

3.10 Like many coastal locations Thanet has had a transient population, with new residents

accessing the cheaper housing offer, particularly in house of multiple occupations.

This has been most acute in Margate and Cliftonville where more than 30% of resident

population move in and out of the area within a short space of time.

3.11

Thanet‟s business base is largely located in urban areas and key sectors inc lude

wholesale and retail and construction. Tourism & green sectors comprise a sizeable

proportion of total businesses. Home-working is relatively high in the district and is

particularly popular in Margate and Ramsgate.

Thanet Local Labour Market Economic Area

3.12

Thanet has strong functional links with the neighbouring authority areas of Canterbury

and Dover, with strong in and out commuting rates as shown in

3.13 Table 3.

Table 3: Travel to Work Analysis (2011)

In-Commuting

Out-

Commuting Balance

Thanet 31,039 13,380 17,659

Canterbury 2,232 4,564 -2,332

Dover 1,899 2,874 -975

Shepway 349 655 -306

Swale 303 568 -265

Ashford 153 521 -368

(Westminster+Southwark+Tower

Hamlets+Dartford+Bexley) 78 852 -774Source: ONS, 2011

3.14

30% of people living in the District commute out of Thanet to work. Out-commuting

levels are the greatest to Dover and Canterbury with 60% of out-commuters working in

these locations, a significant number also commute towards London.





3.15 According to the Local Economic Assessment for Thanet (2012), there is significant out

migration of the 16-39 age group, suggesting the district‟s constrained economic

position is causing work age residents to move to other locations for work.

Sector Analysis

3.16 The table below identifies the particular sector strengths of Thanet in comparison to

Kent, the South East and England. These are calculated using location quotients4,

which estimate the proportion of employment locally to that within the benchmarks.

In simple terms it highlights the concentration of employment in a particular sector in

Thanet. We then compare this to the latest growth performance to understand which

sectors may be strengthened and which receding.

3.17

Table 4 compares the sectors within Thanet that have a comparative strength against

wider benchmarks Kent, the South East and England. Yellow highlights a reasonably

strong specialisation (i.e. between 1.5 and 3), Green shading highlights a strong

concentration (i.e. a LQ between 3 and 4), and Pink a very strong concentration (i.e.

above 4).

4 LQs provide a simple yet powerful tool to compare places and employment activity. A LQ of 1

shows that employment in a sector is proportionately the same as the benchmark geography

(i.e., there is no specialisms), a LQ greater than 1 shows the sector is proportionately more

strongly represented in Thanet (i.e. there is a specialisation), and a LQ less than 1 shows a sector

is under represented.





Table 4: LQ Analysis

IndustryLQ to

Kent

LQ to

SE

LQ to

England

Employm

ent

change(%)- 2009-

13

161 : Sawmilling and planing of wood 3.1 2.6 1 14.3

203 : Manufacture of paints, varnishes and similarcoatings, printing ink and mastics

12.9 19 13.9 -12

222 : Manufacture of plastics products 2.6 4.3 2.8 18.2

257 : Manufacture of cutlery, tools and generalhardware

3.4 5.3 4.8 21.3

259 : Manufacture of other fabricated metal products 1.7 1.7 1 121.2

261 : Manufacture of electronic components and

boards

4.1 2.8 4.3 166.1

266 : Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical andelectrotherapeutic equipment

8.9 3.7 13.2 100

267 : Manufacture of optical instruments andphotographic equipment

3.5 2.9 6.3 111.1

271 : Manufacture of electric motors, generators,transformers and electricity distribution and controlapparatus

7.7 12.8 12.1 12.3

310 : Manufacture of furniture 2.4 2.3 1.2 -15.8

324 : Manufacture of games and toys 6 14.7 8.1 -82.7

329 : Other manufacturing 1.3 1.2 1.1 25

331 : Repair of fabricated metal products, machineryand equipment 1.3 1.4 1.3 74.2

381 : Waste collection 1.5 1.9 1.7 -31.4

383 : Materials recovery 0.6 1.2 1.3 880

411 : Development of building projects 0.4 0.4 0.3 -62.0

431 : Demolition and site preparation 1.7 2.9 2.0 200.0

432 : Electrical, plumbing and other constructioninstallation activities

0.8 1.1 1.3 -6.7

433 : Building completion and finishing 0.7 1.0 1.1 19.0

433 : Building completion and finishing 0.7 1 1.1 19

464 : Wholesale of household goods 0.9 0.5 0.6 220

467 : Other specialised wholesale 0.7 0.9 0.8 44.1

473 : Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores 1.3 1.3 2 100

474 : Retail sale of information and communicationequipment in specialised stores

0.9 0.7 0.9 -34.4

475 : Retail sale of other household equipment inspecialised stores

1.3 1.5 1.6 -30.9

476 : Retail sale of cultural and recreation goods inspecialised stores

1.5 1.6 1.5 -15.9

477 : Retail sale of other goods in specialised stores 1 1.3 1.5 19.9





IndustryLQ to

Kent

LQ to

SE

LQ to

Engla

nd

Employm

ent

change

(%)- 2009-

13

491 : Passenger rail transport, interurban 2.1 5 6.2 6.8

493 : Other passenger land transport 1.5 1.7 1.1 -3.2

494 : Freight transport by road and removal services 0.3 0.4 0.3 -45.6

521 : Warehousing and storage 0.2 0.3 0.2 385.7

522 : Support activities for transportation 1.2 1.1 1.5 55.6

531 : Postal activities under universal service obligation 1.1 1 1 -4.9

551 : Hotels and similar accommodation 1 0.9 0.9 8.6

552 : Holiday and other short stay accommodation 1.3 0.6 0.7 39.1

553 : Camping grounds, recreational vehicle parksand trailer parks

1.3 1.7 1.7 86.1

559 : Other accommodation 1.8 1.2 0.7 16.7

561 : Restaurants and mobile food service activities 1.3 1.4 1.3 21.7

781 : Activities of employment placement agencies 2.7 2.5 2.4 56.9

Source: NOMIS, ABI/ BRES 2013

3.18 The analysis shows that Thanet has strengths within the manufacturing sector although

these tend to be of low value and medium value; some elements of these sectors

have continued to grow during the recession. The data also shows that there hasbeen a significant proportional increase in activities such as the manufacture of

electric components, motor parts; plastic goods and specialised electro-medical

equipment, reinforcing their importance to the local economy.

3.19

There is a weak representation within Thanet‟s economy of warehouse and road

based freight transport, this reflects the relative location of Thanet to the UK‟s core

markets and reinforces the market sentiment that the District is not a location for

general distribution activity. However, there has been an increase in employment in

the sector since 2009, suggesting that some level of activity tied to servicing local

communities or business activity is happening.

Future Employment Growth

3.20 A range of forecasts and projections are available to help understand the scale and

nature of employment and economic growth within Thanet. Historically TDC have

worked with Experian to provide an understanding of future growth, although we





understand the recently completed SHMA draws on the East of England Forecasting

Model (EEFM) prepared by Oxford Economics.

3.21

Understandably both have different approaches to modelling and forecasting futuregrowth, as such both yield different results both in terms of the scale of growth and

also the mix of sectors.

3.22 Reviewing the most recent version of the EEFM (published in autumn 2014) it forecasts

employment growth of c.4,800 jobs between 2011 and 2031, an increase of 10%. The

most significant employment growth would be within Business Services (1,374 jobs,

53%), Professional Services (1,059 jobs, 67%) and Retail (961 jobs, 14%). A number of

sectors will also see significant proportional growth, albeit with lower levels of jobs

creation. With the exception of the electronics sub-category all manufacturing

activities are forecast to contract.

3.23 The latest Experian employment forecasts (March 2016) predict a slightly greater level

of growth within Thanet than the EEFM, with growth of 5,200 additional jobs, an

increase of 11%. Experian predict that this growth will be driven by expansion of the

administrative services sector (1,500 jobs, 60%), public administration (1,300 jobs, 21%)

and the manufacture of the computing and electronic products (800 jobs, 89%).

3.24 Given both forecasts also work from a different base level of employment for Thanet,

to allow a general comparison we have rebased both forecasts to the latest (2014)

Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) results.





Figure 7: Property Supply by sub region June 2015

Source: BGVA Analysis of BRES, Experian and Oxford Economics, 2016

3.25 As shown the early years of the Experian forecast predicted lower growth levels than

the EEFM, however in the medium term (2016-2020) growth is expected to occur at a

greater rate. Beyond the early 2020s Experian forecast growth to be more volatile but

(on average) to be broadly at the same rate as the EEFM.

3.26

Given the differences in the two forecasts it is clear that achieving growth in line with

Experian‟s expectations would achieve both a greater level of employment growth

but also tie growth much more closely to the nature of the existing Thanet economy

and link with wider opportunities for Kent as a whole.

BRES Forecast





4. Employment Land in East Kent

4.1

Thanet does not operate in an isolated market. The delivery of growth within

neighbouring local authorities will directly impact on the opportunities for the District

to attract and accommodate new development. In particular, businesses do not

respect administrative boundaries and will locate on the most suitable site which

enables them to serve their target market.

4.2

In this regard it is relevant to review the future demand and supply of employment

land within Thanet‟s immediate neighbours. The nature of economic activity within

the district is predominantly locally-orientated, servicing a sub-regional demand and

drawing on the sub-regional labour market. As such, it has strong inter-relationships

with the neighbouring districts as a market, source of workers and supply chain.

4.3 In the main future growth is likely to mirror the current trend of predominantly locally

orientated activity, as such businesses seeking to exploit the „East Kent‟ market may

seek to locate in Thanet but could also consider opportunities in any of the

surrounding districts, therefore understanding employment land supply and

aspirations helps to evaluate both local competition and complementarity for future

demand.

4.4

That is not to say that all businesses only operate locally, a number are servicing

regional, national and international markets from East Kent. These tend to seek

locations with high quality environments and workspaces and good communications

and infrastructure.

4.5 Again, understanding which neighbouring areas are focussing on similar opportunities

will help to set the potential for Thanet in context, highlighting where there are unique

opportunities and considerable competition.

Review of Employment Land in Thanet and the Neighbouring Districts

4.6 We have reviewed a full range of employment evidence base and economic

strategy documents for each of the neighbouring local authorities to understand their

economic priorities, wider growth aspirations and sector focus. The review has been





done keeping in mind more land intensive B-class commercial use relating to use class

B1c, B2 and B8 for industrial, manufacturing and warehouse activity.

4.7

The most recent VOA statistics on industrial floorspace indicates that in the East Kentregion Thanet and Canterbury has suffered a loss of industrial floorspace of 26,000sqm

and 29,000sqm respectively between 2000 and 2012 (as shown in Figure 8). Dover has

had the highest amount of floorspace gain of 102,000sqm.

Figure 8: Commercial floorspace in Thanet and neighbouring districts

Source: VOA

4.8 The VOA data highlights the limited scale of the office market within Thanet, with less

than 100,000sqm of floorspace provided within the District. This reflects the

dominance of industrial activity as the major economic driver within the area.

4.9 The Thanet Local Economic and Employment Assessment (LEEA) 2012, indicates

relatively low vacancy levels in Thanet, an indication of either a stagnant property

market or a high demand for the type of property provided. However, most of the

stock within the district was considered to be poor quality which is likely to restrict the

level of demand, particularly from inward investors.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

F l o o r s p a c e i n s q m ( T h

o u s a n d s m

2 )

Canterbury- Industrial Dover- Industrial

Thanet- Industrial Thanet- office





4.10 The following table shows the summary of employment land needs and supply

assessment for Thanet and neighbouring districts of Dover and Canterbury over the

plan period.

Table 5: Summary of Employment Land in Thanet and other districts

Thanet 2009-2026 Dover 2012-2026Canterbury 2011-

2031

Floorspace

(m2)

Land

(ha)

Floorspace

(m2)

Land

(ha)

Floorspace

(m2)

Land

(ha)

Employment Land Need 206,200 15 20,000 5 146,874 16

Employment

Land Supply

Total - 65 385,470 227 243,649 69

Priority

Sites - 182,934 108 128,724

Over/under Supply - 50 -162,934 103 18,150 53

Source: Employment Land Supply Reports for relevant local authority areas

Thanet

4.11 Economic Sectors: The latest economic forecast in Thanet (LEEA, 2012) suggests that

the economy will continue to grow in tourism and in green sectors - such as low

carbon goods and services (LCGES); renewable energy and their spin off andsupporting sectors. This is likely to include additional demand from manufacturing

and service businesses. Employment is forecast to grow by 5,000 jobs by 2031.

4.12 Employment Land: Thanet identifies a need of 15 ha of employment land up to 2031.

The total supply of the employment (B-class) land in estimated to be 65 Ha. This leaves

a potential oversupply of 50 Ha.

4.13 Most of the growth in the B-class sector within Thanet is estimated to be in B1 and B8

class (ELR, 2010). The major industrial employment location within Thanet is Manston

Park which has 47 Ha of available land for development. The rest of the sites have a

capacity range below 2 Ha.





Table 6: Available Industrial Sites in Thanet

Sites

Employment Land (Industrial

Focus) Use

Class

Type

Quality Rating

Site (Ha)

Land remaining

for development

(Ha)

Manston Road (N) 1.67 1.07 Excellent

Manston Road (S) 6.8 1.58 Average

Manston Park 75.2 47.37B1, B2,B8

Good

Hedgend 2.46 1.61 Good

Total 51.63Source: Employment Topic Paper (2013)

Dover

4.14

Economic Sectors: the occupier mix within Dover is biased towards the low growth

manufacturing and lower skilled occupations. Only the presence of the Discovery

Park stands out against this trend. (ELR 2010)

4.15 Employment Land: Dover‟s latest employment land needs are underpinned by its

Employment Land Update report, 2012, which considers in a worst case scenario that

there is no need for further employment space. It estimates that employment levels

will fall to 2018 and will only return to the previous peak in 2026, resulting in no net

employment growth across the Plan Period. Should the economy recover more

quickly the Employment Update identifies a modest need for new additional

employment space (circa 20,000sqm or approximately 5ha).

4.16 Dover District has a total of 108 ha of employment land supply identified on priority

sites. Among this supply the majority of industrial land is located on just two

employment sites, the largest of which (Discovery Park) in the evidence base is

anticipated to provide capacity for 280,000 sqm of B class space. As established bythe Discovery Park planning permission the new space delivered within the site would

be c.120,000sqm albeit not all of it would be for B Class uses, with some energy

related activity included in this figure.

4.17

What is clear from the permitted masterplan for Discovery Park is that the future

development will seek to evolve the existing nature of activity to continue to build a

knowledge orientated hub. This means that there will be no capacity for large scale

manufacturing or other industrial activity.





4.18 The other major site in Dover is the White Cliffs Business Park which contributes 52,000

sqm. White Cliffs is seen as a key location for transport and distribution industries

linked to the operations of the Port of Dover.

Table 7: Available Industrial Sites in Dover

Site name Potential use SiteDevelopment

Potential (m2)

Discovery Park Enterprise Zone B1, B2, B8 81.1Revised figure of

120,000

White Cliffs Business Park B1, B2, B9 54.7 52,000

Sandwich Industrial Estate B1, B2, B10 18.3

Old Park Barracks B1 and B8 5.75 988

Ramsgate Road B2 15.5 3,700

Pike Road, Eythorne B1, B2 and B8 9.3 1,350

Total 178,038

Source: Dover, Employment Land Update, 2012

Canterbury

4.19 Economic Focus: Canterbury‟s main economic focus is concentrated in the

manufacturing, construction; logistics and professional, scientific and technical

activities (ELR, 2012).

4.20 Employment Land: Canterbury District has identified 128,724 sq m of remaining

developable land capacity for B-class use which is currently allocated for

employment purposes. The total estimated need of employment capacity is 146,874

sq m which leaves an oversupply of 18,150 sq m of employment floorspace in

Canterbury. However, the supply is likely to increase if the Canterbury Local Plan 2014,

currently under examination is adopted by the district.

4.21 The main available land for industrial purposes is Altira Business Park (15 ha) at Herne

Bay and Canterbury Business Park (10 ha) that can together accommodate c. (14 ha)

of new industrial development beyond their existing developed land. In addition to

this the current Local Plan of Canterbury under examination has identified 6,000 sqm

of additional employment land for B1, B2 and B8 use allocation next to the Lakesview,

Hersden.





Table 8: Available Industrial Sites in Canterbury

Site name Use Class Site (Ha)Land

Remaining

Altira Business Park B1, B2, B8 15 9.6 Ha

Canterbury Business Park B1, B2 and B8 10.4 3 Ha

Potential Land Allocation- Land Adjacentto Lakesview, Hersden, Canterbury

B1, B2, B8 24 6000 sq m

Source: Canterbury, Employment Land Study, 2011

4.22 It is notable that supply within Canterbury is limited to a small number of relatively

small sites, limiting the scope for attracting larger scale employment activities to the

area. This may indicate an opportunity for Manston, where businesses may be

attracted to the assets within Canterbury but unable to access a sufficient scale or

nature of site within it.

Summary

4.23

Low existing commercial stock: Thanet has a low existing stock of commercial

floorspace compared to Dover and Canterbury. The VOA data shows that Thanet has

suffered a significant industrial floorspace loss between 2000 and 2012 at 26,000 sq m.

whereas the neighbouring district of Dover has gained 102,000 sq m of industrial

employment stock during this period.

4.24 Greater industrial floorspace and low vacancy levels: Thanet has more industrial

floorspace than office. This reflects the market strength for manufacturing activity,

whereas the office market is weak, with little demand. Thanet also has a consistently

high occupancy rate for industrial premises.

4.25 Supply and quality of new employment stock: Thanet has the lowest employment

land supply available (65 ha) as compared to Dover (227Ha) and Canterbury (69 Ha).

The Thanet ELR notes that much of the supply of employment land is relatively poor

quality.

4.26 Qualitative Need for New Supply: Whilst there is a considerable supply of employment

land within East Kent that would appear to fulfil the identified quantitative need there

is potentially an unmet qualitative need that the Application site could address. The

majority of land identified for industrial activity is (in market terms) of a relatively small

scale, with the largest site providing 47ha of developable land. This does not

compare well with the supply available in other Kent industrial locations such as





Medway or Swale. There is, therefore, an opportunity to deliver a different offer to the

market that can coordinate a number of large plots that would otherwise not be

achievable on other sites. Existing interest in the Application site has suggested there

is demand for larger space in the market from a range of occupiers. Positively, given

the Application site‟s location, this is unlikely to solely attract large distribution sheds as

is poorly located for this activity.





5. Future Economic Potential and Drivers.

5.1

Having identified a potential qualitative need for a new form of employment land

within the current portfolio it is also important to understand the types of activities that

may drive demand for this space in order to justify allocating the space. This is also a

useful analysis to help understand what the alternate economic future for Thanet may

look like now that the airport has ceased to operate.

5.2 It is this analysis of sector drivers and the potential scale of growth that can provide a

new basis for considering the future of Thanet, basing future growth decisions on an

Key Findings

Significant range of established and growing assets that can drive future growth in the

economy through supply chain and agglomeration opportunities, including:

o Expansion of Ramsgate Port activity

o Delivery of Richborough EcoPark

o Success of Thanet Earth

o Regeneration of Discovery Park

o Development of Thanet Parkway Station

Each driver has a shortage of land to accommodate related business activity

therefore any potential benefits could be lost to Thanet and, more widely, East Kent.

Key opportunities within:

o Engineering

o Advanced manufacturing

o Production linked distribution

o Local services

There is an established record of other locations in Kent securing additional, significant,

supply led employment growth when linked to other economic assets.

Implications

Using the identified drivers as basis for enhancing key sector growth to levels expectedon the rest of the UK can deliver an additional 2,500 jobs in the District over the Plan

Period to 2031.

However, this potential can only be realised by providing development capacity that

is well connected to identified drivers and allows sufficient space for businesses to

move to the area.

Manston, as a brownfield site well served by existing infrastructure, can deliver „supply

led‟ growth to help Thanet achieve a step change in its economic prospects.





up to date understanding of the strengths, challenges and opportunities the District

faces.

5.3

Our research has identified a number of locally specific drivers that could act as adriver for the future economy and that could potentially result in a form of occupier

demand that could only be accommodated within the Application site locally.

5.4 Offshore Wind: the Port of Ramsgate is one of the five designated Centre for Offshore

Renewable Engineering (CORE) in England which will support growth in the UK

offshore wind industry. The focus at Ramsgate Port will be on the servicing and

maintenance of the offshore array and it is estimated that the current and emerging

off shore wind farm activity will create 150 jobs. More widely it is thought it will

support, sustain and create employment across local marine and tourism sector.

5.5 However, as one of only a few locations within the UK with a focus on renewables

engineering there is wider potential to capture activity within the LCEGS sector. As an

emerging sector and technology in the UK there are a number of potential „spin offs‟

that could be harnessed locally. Major wind turbine manufacturers are actively

looking for sites within the UK to assist in the manufacture of component parts as well

as the land-side assembly of turbines. Currently these businesses are focussed on

locating in areas which have the capability to service the Phase 3 arrays planned off

the UK coast however we are aware that demand has not manifested itself in East

Kent sue to a perceived lack of development sites of a sufficient scale.

5.6

Previous interest in Kent has been demonstrated by Vestas which had identified a site

in Swale for a production facility, withdrawing only when it became clear the

government timetable for delivery of new arrays was uncertain. However, if this

programme is revitalised there are likely to be new opportunities for East Kent linked to

Ramsgate.

5.7 Eco Park at Richborough: There redevelopment of the former Richborough Power

Station is planned to create a new hub for green energy production. It is proposed

that the site, which is already partly in use as an onshore sub-station for Thanet Wind

Farm, will host a number of technologies and processes such as a Biomass Combined

Heat and Power (CHP) and an Anaerobic Digester. The site is described in the East

Kent Local Investment Plan as having „excellent access to the national grid, major





Baseline Growth Projection

6.5 The baseline growth projection draws directly on the Experian forecast, which

indicates a potential for an additional 5,200 jobs to be created within the district by

2031, an increase of 11%. In line with broader economic trends this growth is focussed

on non-B class activities as shown below.

Figure 9 - Forecast Employment Growth

Source: Experian, GVA 2016

6.6 Within „B class‟ activities the base forecast shows an increase in office based

employment activities (22% to 2031), a small decrease in employment in industrial

activities (-1%) and a 23% increase in warehouse and storage employment.

6.7 Using employment density assumptions we can translate these job creation forecasts

into additional floorspace requirements. As a base model we use the following

employment densities (in line with the HCA Density Guide Third Edition, 2015):

B1a/b – 12 square metres per employee (NIA);

B1c/B2 – 36 square metres per employee (GIA); and

B8 – 70 square metres per employee (GEA).

6.8 Based on these ratios employment growth over the plan period would result in an

estimated demand for c.120,000sqm of additional B Class floorspace, shared

between use classes as shown:





Table 9- Base Employment Land Requirements

FloorspaceDemand 2011 -

2031

Change inLand

m2 Ha

Office 20,562 2

Industrial -1,646 0

Warehouse 20,100 5

Total 39,016 7

6.9 Overall, we would estimate a requirement for 7ha of employment land across the

District, the majority (5ha) being required for industrial and warehousing activity.

Enhanced Growth Projection

6.10 However, as noted above Thanet has a number of assets that can help the district

achieve a different scale and nature of economic growth in the future. Achieving this

type of growth will require a future to strategy that promotes and harnesses the

potential of these assets and the potential they provide to catalyse growth in a

number of key sectors. In parallel with wider development and regeneration

initiatives within the District the economic growth potential of Thanet can be

significantly enhanced.

6.11

Based on our analysis of the economic opportunities for Thanet based on its own

assets and the opportunity to capture a greater share of activity within the wider East

Kent and Kent market the „business as usual‟ approach set out under the baseline

projection is not necessarily all the District should be hoping to achieve.

6.12 The analysis presented in this report suggests that there are particular opportunities to

achieve a greater level of growth within industrial activities in particular, drawing on

the existing business and skills base but also making the most of new opportunities to

accommodate larger scale development. This would suggest that the draft Local

Plan and our own baseline projection may under-estimate the scale of employment

land requirement over the Plan Period.

6.13

To understand the potential scale of additional growth that could be achieved and

the implications this may have for employment land requirements we have reviewed

the growth prospects of relevant sectors at the national scale. This allows us to

project the potential impacts based on wider industry expectations.





Enhanced Prospects within the Advanced Manufacturing Sector

6.14 The UK has seen a significant restructuring of its manufacturing base over the last two

decades which has resulted in a shift away from the mass manufacture of consumerproducts to more focussed activity on higher value-added production of advanced

products and components. Whilst the overall scale (in terms of employment) of the

UK manufacturing sector has reduced significantly its value in terms of output has

begun to grow again, reflecting the shift towards „advanced manufacturing‟.

6.15

Research produced by RBS defines a broad range of activities within the “Advanced

Manufacturing” sector including pharmaceuticals, metal products, rubber and

plastics (including composites) and machinery and equipment, alongside automotive

and ICT activities. Importantly the definition of the sector incorporates a key activities

within the „green economy‟ particularly related to the production of key equipment.

6.16 RBS recognised the strength of the UK sector, being the ninth largest manufacturing

nation (by output) in the world, and predicted that the sector will be at the forefront

of economic growth over a five period from 2012. They forecast growth rates of up to

3% per annum, up to double the rate they predicted for general economic growth.

However, more recent figures have suggested that this growth has been slower than

predicted, however longer term prospects are expected to reflect these RBS

projections.

6.17

Thanet would appear well placed to benefit from the forecast growth in the UK‟s

advanced manufacturing sector, particularly given localised drivers within the life

science and green economy sectors. As such it is reasonable to test the potential

opportunity for the sector to grow locally in a manner that aligns to these national

expectations rather than the ongoing contraction forecast by Experian‟s base

projection.

6.18 By comparing growth rates between the Experian forecast and those anticipated by

RBS we would anticipate that the Experian forecast may under-estimate the growth

potential of three manufacturing sectors, “Non-Metallic Products”, “Metal Products”

and “Other Manufacturing” sectors. To test the implications of Thanet growing in line

with national forecasts in these sectors we have applied the RBS rates to the 2011

base for the first 5 years of the forecast. No consistent forecasts have been produced





for the remainder of the plan period; therefore we have reduced the growth rate by

0.5% for each subsequent 5 year period to reflect a more matured market.

Ancillary Growth in Warehousing and Distribution

6.19 It is clear that Thanet is not a location that is attractive to major retail supply chain

orientated distribution activities given the distance from the District to the UK‟s major

ports, markets and centres of population. As such it is unlikely that there would be

major distribution led growth in the form of large scale, high bay national or regional

distribution centres (as has been seen in North Kent).

6.20

However, a growing population and expanded manufacturing base may drive

demand for more modest scale logistics activity that is focussed on supply

components to, and distributing products from, local manufacturing/production

businesses and also for space that is used to service the local population (i.e. local

fulfilment centres).

6.21 Whilst much of the demand for space as a result of population growth is likely to be

captured within the Experian forecast it is unlikely that the induced demand from a

greater rate of growth within the manufacturing sector is addressed appropriately.

6.22

To estimate this „knock -on‟ or „induced‟ demand we have utilised the „ready

reckoner‟ additionality multipliers identified within the HCA Additionality Guide (2014),

estimating that each additional job created within the „enhanced‟ manufacturing

sector forecast explained above will generate additional employment in the wider

economy in line with a multiplier of 1.3.

Enhanced Growth Projection Results

6.23 Based on the above factors we have prepared a further employment growth

projection for the District that identifies the potential scale of growth if prospects for

both the advanced manufacturing and logistics sectors are enhanced. This forecast

would see an additional c.2,000 jobs delivered within the District, largely requiring

additional industrial sites and premises.





Table 10- Enhanced Employment Land Requirements

FloorspaceDemand 2011 -

2031

Change inLand

m2 Ha

Office 21,216 2

Industrial 50,193 13

Warehouse 25,279 6

Total 96,688 21

6.24

As shown in Table 10 the enhanced growth scenario would result in a demand led

requirement of c. 21ha of additional employment land within the District over the Plan

Period. This is circa 40% higher than the quantum of land identified as required within

the draft Local Plan

6.25 To accommodate growth within the advanced manufacturing and other sectors

Thanet will need to ensure an appropriate supply of land that can meet the

significant requirements of major occupiers. Site requirements will extend beyond the

ability to deliver a building to also incorporate sufficient external yard and parking

space.

6.26

A single medium sized manufacturing business is likely to require a site of c. 5ha that

can provide a secure environment to deliver in the region of 15,000sqm of floorspaceand associated yard capacity. This will also require good access to the trunk road

network via unrestricted roads and, where possible, space for HGV parking whilst

waiting for loads.

Other Considerations – Supply Side

6.27

Thanet has traditionally lacked large available sites for the development of larger

scale industrial and warehousing activity, as such in the past it is likely to have „lost

out‟ to other parts of Kent in terms of occupier demand. Whilst it has offered good

(and greatly enhanced) connectivity to the major Kent ports (for example Ramsgate

and Dover) and the Channel Tunnel supply has not been in place to accommodate

any particular opportunities that may have arisen.

6.28 Even where new opportunities to accommodate new growth have been identified

(such as Manston Business Park) the approach to their development and delivery has

not been conducive to attracting new inward investment. Importantly the scale and





nature of the sites have not been of sufficient size or quality to shift market

perceptions or create/attract a new critical mass of activity.

6.29

Other locations in Kent have demonstrated the benefits of a strong supply side offer inharnessing additional employment growth above and beyond that which could have

been forecast. Locally Discovery Park is succeeding in attracting occupiers on the

basis of the strength of the offer it makes to the market. Similarly locations such as

Kings Hill, Kent Science Park, G Park Sittingbourne and Crossways Business Park have

all made a distinct offer to the market that has enabled them to differentiate

themselves from the wider offer in the County and attract occupiers based on the

quality, scale and type of space they provide.

6.30 A high quality, integrated approach to the development of the Application site could

have a similar impact within the market. Since the announcement of the Application

site‟s new ownership interest has already been stimulated from occupiers who

previously had not been able to find suitable space locally. For example Serco have

already expressed an interest in the Application site as a base for their operations

across East Kent5 as a result of redevelopment pressure on their current site in

Canterbury (amongst other options they are exploring).

6.31

Whilst the revised demand forecast identifies a potential requirement for 21ha of land

there is the potential for future growth to be extended beyond this level as a result of

the quality of supply. There is, therefore, an opportunity to allow additional

employment land to be allocated within the Application site is order to provide

flexibility and capacity to attract new forms of economic activity.

7. The Application site Opportunity

5 http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Serco-talks-Manston-airport/story-24547625-detail/story.html

Key Findings

The Application site has a number of competitive advantages over other „strategic‟

employment sites in Kent.

Implications

Employment development at Manston can build on existing infrastructure and

investment to provide a new offer within the local market

http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Serco-talks-Manston-airport/story-24547625-detail/story.html








7.1 As highlighted within the previous sections there are strong prospects for growth in a

range of industrial and distribution sectors which, in Thanet, would require the

allocation of new land to meet this strategic opportunity. Whilst there are a number

of „strategic sites‟ across the County that are seeking to meet market demand, there

is very little capacity within East Kent, suggesting the area could miss out on future

growth opportunities.

7.2

The Application site provides a unique opportunity to deliver truly additional capacity

within East Kent that can provide a key attractor for new economic activity. It has the

potential to provide an offer that competes with the large opportunities within the

Thames Gateway and Ashford areas specifically.

7.3 Based on our understanding of the portfolio of sites across Kent and the specific

Manston offer, its key strengths are:

7.4 Connectivity: It offers excellent road links to and from the M2 and M20, providing

connections to the Channel ports, other Kent markets and the wider South East and

London. It also has good rail connections via HS1 at Ramsgate and Sandwich with a

journey time of 76 minutes to London. These connections could be further enhanced

if the Thanet Parkway Station is delivered on HS1 at the south eastern corner of the

Application site.

7.5

Maximising existing infrastructure: significant investment has been made (and is still

planned) for the Application site making it well serviced in comparison to a number of

other strategic sites within Kent. Whilst some local interventions will be required the

successful delivery of a new economic hub at Manston will not require major

investment in new access infrastructure, enabling delivery in a shorter timeframe than

some competitors.

7.6 Proximity to other key locations: The Application site lies at the heart of the East Kent

sub-region and within the more local “Sandwich Corridor” of economic activity

identified within the 2010 Thanet Employment Land Study. The location means

Manston is well connected to major business drivers such as Ramsgate Port, Thanet

Earth, Discovery Park and Dover Port, and the education hub in Canterbury. This

means the Application site is ideally located to accommodate complementary and

supply chain activity linked to these existing successful locations.





7.7 Scale of the offer: The total area of Manston site is c.320 ha, which if it comes forward

for development will provide an opportunity to deliver a critical mass of employment

that previously has not been possible within East Kent. This means it would be able to

accommodate a mix of activities and property that can create an entirely new

economic location in the area. When sat alongside wider amenity, leisure and

recreational spaces it could provide a new generation of business park that

addresses the weakness of the local supply.

7.8 Single ownership and masterplanning approach: The single ownership of the

Application site also plays to its strength for coherent masterplanning and for

undertaking a co-ordinated approach to the development of business space.

7.9 Competitive rental potential: The East Kent market offers significantly lower rents than

other parts of the Greater South East and therefore presents an opportunity for

Manston to be competitive with other locations. However, low values can also

prevent investment and development by restricting returns. The mixed use approach

to the Application site would allow a high quality environment to be created that,

over time, supports a rise in rental values to make development more viable whilst still

protecting its price competitiveness.

7.10

Growing interest from the private sector: Since the new ownership of the Application

site has been made public there has been growing interest from the private sector in

the opportunity it presents within the local market. The owners have been

approached by a number of potential occupiers who see the Application site as key

to enabling them to locate within East Kent where the current portfolio of sites has not

presented an attractive opportunity.





7.11 Importantly, the opportunity presented at Manston could introduce a completely new

type of economic driver into the Thanet economy, acting as a catalyst for wider

economic growth. Given the scale and nature of the opportunity it is likely to present

minimal competition with existing employment sites and allocations working as part of

wider portfolio of sites delivering space that meets differing needs.

7.12

Given the proximity of other sites such as Manston Business Park there is the

opportunity to develop a truly mixed and complementary role that creates a critical

mass of activity to attract major new employers and also generate wider supply chain

benefits. This will require a range of sites and premises types, including smaller

industrial and warehouse facilities, which will not be the focus of the Application site

itself but could reinvigorate and underpin demand at Manston Business Park.

7.13 If properly planned and integrated, the supply led opportunities the Application site

can create will be a significant boost to the local market as a whole by encouraging

a new generation of businesses and start-ups to location in Thanet.





8. Examples of ‘Supply Led’ Growth

8.1 The Application site presents a significant opportunity to enhance Thanet‟s economic

growth prospects by delivering a high quality, mixed use location that utilises the

existing access infrastructure to create a new form of economic location within East

Kent. By employing an innovative and flexible approach to development there is the

opportunity to create a unique asset within the East Kent and wider County economy

that can provide a base for new inward investment and a location for activity to

locate that complements and enhances the existing local drivers.

8.2 This approach will deliver a „supply led‟ catalyst for growth, gearing the offer

specifically to occupiers that currently are not within Thanet or have not been able to

find suitable premises in the area. This in turn can create additional demand through

an expanded cluster of activity for complementary and supply chain businesses of all

sizes.

Key Findings

There a number of examples of high quality development on former airfield and

airport sites in locations similar to Manston.

These have often occupied peripheral economic locations yet have established an

offer that has attracted commercial occupiers.

Successful redevelopment has required the establishment of a high quality, mixed use

offer that responds to local economic drivers and opportunities and provides a range

of amenities that support the economic offer.

This redevelopment has secured significant economic benefits that tend to outweigh

the impacts of lost aviation activity.

Implications

Manston offers similar characteristics to many other former aviation sites in terms of its

locations, accessibility and infrastructure.

Establishing a high quality, mixed use location can attract activity that would

otherwise not come to Thanet.

The mix of activity is vital to attract businesses, providing supporting amenities and

activities that benefit employees.





8.3 Whilst this approach is unique within Thanet there is a long track record within the UK

of re-imagining former major industrial or aviation sites to create distinct economic

assets that deliver much wider economic benefits. The approach taken at the

Application site can draw from these places; they can also provide reassurance that

the ambitious vision for the Application site is achievable.

8.4

The following are a selection of former airports/airfields across the UK that have been

(or are in the process of being) redeveloped to accommodate a range of new

activity. The examples provide key parallels to the Application site in terms of the their

mix of uses, their focus on providing new employment opportunities, their relationship

to key markets and the scale of opportunity they present.





Thurleigh Airfield Business Park, Bedford Autodrome

Location Bedford

Key Activity Automotive, communications, and knowledge based business park

Site 485ha

Space Type B1, B2 and B8 business space.

EstimatedPotential

71,200 m2 of floorspace 1,800 additional jobs The site offers range of units from 230 sqm to 1026 sqm based on the

occupiers demand.

Accessibility

Thurleigh Airfield Business Park is close to the A6 trunk road 6 miles north ofBedford and a similar distance to the south of Rushden. The A6 providesgood access notably to the A45 and A14 corridors to the north. The closes Mroad is M1 connecting to London on the South and Birmingham, Coventryand Leicester on the North.

Description

The 485ha former MOD site has Thurleigh Business Park on the southern

part of the site. The business park has more than 50,000 sqm of newspace comprising research facilities, vehicle logistics, and a satellitecommunication station.

The northern end of the site was the former Royal Aerospaceestablishment. It currently houses Bedford autodrome, which is the UK‟s

first new corporate motor sport centre for 20 years. Within this complexalso exists Thurleigh Museum, one of the few remaining buildings on theoriginal airfield.

At present the automotive nature of the site use is dominant but thebusiness park also hosts a Technology Park and media related use(Millennium Studios).

Owner andoccupiers

It is currently owned and managed by St, Modwen. Occupiers cover a range of buildings and include BAE Systems, Qinetic,

Paragon Automotive, Arqiva, MBDA and Palmer Promosport.

-





Hatfield Business Park, Hatfield

Location Welwyn Hatfield

Site 250 acres

Accessibility Rail access provides access to King‟s Cross in 26 minutes, it also has direct

access to A1(M)Key Offer Hatfield Business Park is a modern business park developed by Goodman over

the last 20 years following the closure of the British Aerospace plant at HatfieldAerodrome.It provides a mix of employment floorspace (principally HQ Office, R&D anddistribution uses) in a high quality, landscaped environment over 400 hectaresand provides 3.5 million sq.ft of business space providing 10,000 jobs.It also accommodates significant new housing development and a highereducation facility.

EstimatedPotential

New or planned key uses/buildings: The business park has significant vacant land available for design and

build opportunities up to 20,000sqm across the range of B class uses.

Hatfield Business Park forms a key element of the regeneration of the

former aerodrome. Its occupier base is heavily influenced by theproximity to the A1 (M) and therefore accommodates a number of B8warehouse and distribution occupiers. The attractiveness of the officeaccommodation is likely to have been supported by the wider amenityprovision provided by the Galleria and in support of the University andsignificant residential community. This has given businesses a much widerrange of facilities than an office campus alone would support.

Accessibility The Business Park is just two minutes from the A120 trunk road. The site isaccessible from the A1(M) Junctions 3 and 4 (via the A1011 Comet Way).

Description Strong example where a considerable investment has been made toestablish a high quality environment since BAE‟s decision to close theAerodrome in the 1990s resulted in a loss of 8,000 jobs. Working alongsidethe local authority Goodman has worked to regenerate the site to createone of the largest mixed use parks of its type in the UK.

Its success can in part be attributed to the ability to develop to at a largescale as well as its success in attracting a very diverse range of tenants.There are a vast array of employers on site covering a range of activitiesincluding distribution, tech and IT. The University of Hertfordshire alsoprovides benefits facilitating cross overs and touch points with othercompanies. There is extensive amenity provision including sports, leisureand retail facilities and a host of events and activities help to create asense of community.

Hatfield Business Park forms part of the wider redevelopment of the former

Hatfield Aerodrome, it provides circa 350,000sqm of business spaceranging from distribution space through to high tech R&D provision. Thetotal redevelopment is one of the largest of its type in Europe andaccommodates 2,000 homes, the Galleria out of town retail and leisure

development, health and fitness centre, hotels, the University ofHertfordshire campus and a new Police headquarters.

Occupiers Key occupiers are T Mobile (HQ function), Veolia Water (offices), Eisai(pharma), Computacenter; Ocado, DHL, Booker and Royal Mail(distribution). Larger occupiers predominate, although there are number

of smaller business units located within the job centre.





Kings Hill, West Malling

Location Tonbridge and Malling

Key Features

and Offer

Kings Hill Business Park has been developed as part of a mixed use

development of the former West Malling Airfield. The business park is beingdelivered as part of a wider, substantial mixed use development; and thesite therefore includes a district centre and a range of amenities; togetherwith residential development.

To date 75,000sqm of offices have been developed, housing 100companies; with consent existing for a further 100,000sqm of officefloorspace.

Home to major international, national and regional players in the financialservices, life sciences, professional services sectors

Site 325ha

Accessibility 2 miles to M20, 55 miles to Central London

Description Kings Hill in West Malling, Kent is marketed as a „sustainable business and

residential community‟. Liberty Property Trust UK has created mixed-usepark on this 800 acre site which houses international and local businesseswhich provide employment for its residential community. A ‟village‟ offers

retail, schools, sports and leisure facilities and, as well as on-site walkingand cycling, there are also good public transport links to London andbeyond. To date, employment space for 5,000 people and homes for7,700 people have been developed and 15% of households have oneperson employed by a Kings Hill business.

Located in West Kent Kings Hill is a major mixed use business parklocated on a former airfield. It accommodated almost 80,000sqm ofbusiness space, predominantly for office space with a further100,000sqm of floor space permitted.

Major residential led development provides 2,500 homes, a local retailcentre, supermarket and other leisure facilities.

Occupiers Key occupiers include companies like Kimberly Clark; Barclays Bank; Marsh;Cabot Financial; and Genzyme Diagnostics.





Earls Colne Business Park, Essex

Location Colchester, Essex

Key Featuresand Offer

Home to major international, national and regional players in the automotive,communications, construction and food and drink sectors.

Industrial and office properties: Industrial and office premises from 250 to5,000 square metres. Business Centre offering smaller businesses flexible accommodation from

200 to 500 square metres The hosts a range of sectors such as Advanced Manufacturing, Transport,

Creative and Food

Site 100ha

Space Type Offices (B1a), Residential (C3)on-site airfield, Golf course, gymnasium

Accessibility The Business Park is just two minutes from the A120 trunk road

Description Earls Colne Business Park is situated on the site of the former U.S.A.A.F WW IIairbase, next to the Marks Hall Country Park and arboretum.

It provides employment for over 1400 people in buildings set in a park

setting The Business Park also has an onsite airfield with customs clearance

Onsite facilities include Golf course (Essex golf and country club), Anglianflight centre, Marks Hall Estate, Dentist and clinics.

Occupiers The estate is a popular location for regional offices. Major occupiers represented include Baxters Foods, Trane UK, Gigawave

and Milbank Floors, SVP - Ford, Gigawave, Flight Timber





Heyford Park, Oxfordshire

Location Located close to Bicester within Cherwell District Council.

Site Area 500 Ha

Accessibility The park is accessible from M40 via. B430; it is 4.5 miles north west of Bicesterand about 2 miles from Lower Heyford station

Backgroundand Key Offer

A former Air Force base which has been decommissioned since 1994. The Park has been developed with Dorchester Group, Frogmore and

includes offerings of commercial floorspace, new village with circa 1000new residential unit, school, a cricket pitch and other communityfacilities. The site covers 500 ha of land and has circa. 120,700 sq m ofresidential and commercial accommodation.

The site contains some building of historical importance that bearsancient monument status.

There are over 1000 people employed in the park within at least 100businesses spread.

The park hosts Cherwell Innovation Centre, hosting over 40 companiesoffering 1,800 sq m of office space with offices ranging from 10 sq m to 65sq m. It has facilities like micro labs and specialised equipment.

Space Type Office and R&D (B1a, B1c), Workshop and light industrial, Residential (C3)

Occupiers There are at least 100 businesses located on the site which includes

companies like Integration Technology ltd. (manufacturing light sources),Paragon Fleet Solutions (Fleet vehicle processing and managementcompany), and shop fitting contracts.

The Innovation Centre has over 40 SME companies on its premises and itoffers office and lab facilities to support them.





Alconbury Enterprise Zone

Location Huntingdonshire District Council

Site 1400 acresKey Featuresand Offer

The Enterprise Zone is developed as a part of the former RAF Alconbury

airbase and is being delivered as a new location for manufacturing,engineering and housing growth.

The Employment Zone provides 150 Ha in size of employment land Plans for the site also include provision of 5000 homes; 700 acres of green

open space; and investment in a range of transport, energy andcommunity facilities.

It is anticipated that the site will deliver 8,000 jobs The EZ campus has a strong focus of Life Sciences related companies

along with institutional presence through affiliations with University ofCambridge and Huntingdonshire regional college.

The first stage of development has established a new innovation centre,

which is helping to establish the site as a new economic hubAccessibility East Coast Mainline, A1(M) and A14. Huntingdon rail station is 3.6miles

south of the campus.

Occupiers There are ranges of businesses on site including: Envall- Waste Recycling Mole Solutions – underground pipeline freight transport Quest – Cloud computing solutions Audio Analytic – sound recognition systems Aquavent – Water efficiency solutions

Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership





Wynyard Park

Location North East of England within Stockton-On-Tees District Council

Site Area 280 ha

Accessibility The site is close to A1 (M) via. A689. 11 minutes‟ drive from Middlesbrough, 24minutes‟ drive frim Darlington and 30 minutes‟ drive from Sunderland.

Key Offer The site includes 280 ha of mixed use development with planning permission.It is estimated to have already generated over £250m of private investment.Key offers within the site include: Pegasus House: A 11,600 sq m of warehouse facility currently occupied by

Glamal Engineering (LFF Group). Data Centre: A 30,000 sq m Data Centre facility operated by EDS (part of

Hewlett Packard). Wellington House: A 16,000 sq m multi tenanted warehouse and office

facility currently occupied by Amkotron, SK Foods and WestminsterBusiness Centre

Wynyard Park Business Village: A range of new, high-quality, self-

contained offices ranging from 140 to 2,000 sq m. Lion Court: A new corporate multi-tenanted office building with available

floor plates of 1,400 sq m. Wynyard Park House: offering includes serviced reception, conference

and exhibition facilities with café and bar. Evolution: Evolution space offers a flexilet scheme, which has easy-in,

easy-out terms for a fixed monthly fee. It includes rent, rates, servicecharges and furniture. Facilities include free car parking and kitchenamenities.

DevelopmentPotential

Wynyard Park has range of available development opportunities whichincludes: Development Sites: The Park contains plots available for office/leisure

development, of circa 2.4 ha and office or industrial developments,

ranging from 0.4 to 16 ha. Proposed Office/Medial Cluster- Proposed site for offices and medical

associated uses supporting the hospital development. Available residential development opportunities.

Space Type B-class commercial floorspace (B1, B2 and B8), C3 and Leisure facilities

Occupiers Wynyard Park is currently home to around 60 companies, from PLCs to SMEs,employing more than 1,000 members of staff between them. Names includecompanies like Amec, Bimcreative and enterprises, Hartlepool College, SKFood, Westminster Business Centre and NHS.

8.5

Whilst at different stages of delivery each of the former airfield developments

demonstrate the economic benefits that can be realised through a comprehensive,

high quality approach to their reuse. What is clear through each is that the offer

made seeks to work with the assets the site benefits from, or connects to, and provide

an environment that attracts business activity.

8.6 Fundamental to each development has been the quality of the environment that has

been created which has enabled each to „stand out‟ from other locations and

attract a scale and nature of activity that is different to its surroundings. The

development of Kings Hill, Hatfield and Alconbury all recognise that the environment





within which employment and business park based businesses chose to operate has

changed dramatically over the past decade. Out of town demand is increasingly

driven by the desire for occupiers to co-locate with other similar firms and to benefit

from a range of uses that create a more vibrant working environment.

8.7 These successful locations offer more than purely good quality floorspace (although

this remains a pre-requisite), seeking to accommodate a wider range of supporting

amenities that offer more to employees than just a place of work. Increasingly this is

seen as a vital element in personnel recruitment and retention by businesses and is

often referred to „place-making‟ – countering the often sterile character of early UK

business parks.

8.8 The implications of these changing market dynamics are also evident in a number of

the UK‟s pre-eminent businesses parks, which are now seeking to deliver a truly

integrated mixed use proposition. This capitalises on the „traditional‟ demand drivers

of existing infrastructure and labour resources, but seeks to bring forward B class

employment space alongside institutional, innovation, residential and retail

opportunities.

8.9 Further to the quality of place established the other major factor in all of the airfield

redevelopment considered is the scale at which they operate. In most cases these

sites have been significantly larger than any other employment site available within

the area they are located. As such, they have provided a new element to the supply

portfolio and enabled the growth of major new economic hub from scratch.

8.10

It is this scale that allows complementary mixes of activity to locate in one space and

drive new forms of activity, rather than dispersing across a wider range of sites and

losing any agglomeration benefits.

8.11

The scale and ambition of the Application site owners can place the Application site

on an equal footing to other redeveloped airfields within the Greater South East.

Whilst the mix of activities will differ given the different economic context and drivers,

the ability to deliver scale and quality will enable the Application site establish itself a

similarly strategic scale.





9. Conclusion

9.1 The Application site is strategically well located within the East Kent market, lying at

the centre of the sub-region‟s core economic drivers of Canterbury, the Ports of Dover

and Ramsgate, the growing life sciences cluster at Discovery Park and other „one off‟

assets such as Thanet Earth and Richborough Energy Park.

9.2 Each of these locations is attracting a new form of economic activity or sector to East

Kent. Ramsgate acts as a hub for offshore renewables, providing a base for servicing

of the Thanet Offshore Windfarm and the London Array. The evolving offer at

Richborough Energy Park will provide a hub for renewable energy generation,

including Biomass, whilst Thanet Earth is the UK‟s largest glasshouse based commercial

growing facility. Alongside Discovery Park these developments are delivering new

employment opportunities both directly and indirectly through supply chain partners

and wider „agglomeration‟ influences.

9.3 Whilst these locations are establishing themselves as the bedrock of the East Kent

economy they cannot accommodate all the demand that their success is attracting.

Whilst each location is relatively large in its own right there is a lack of capacity to

accommodate related, ancillary or footloose demand from a range of sectors thateither link directly to the specialised offer or see East Kent as a strong location from

which to operate as the economy and connections improve.

9.4 For example, recent enquiries at Discovery Park have included a number of mid-sized

distribution uses, which are clearly not of the appropriate character for the

Application site, but could be valuable employers in East Kent more widely. However,

whilst these businesses are attracted to East Kent, at present there is a lack of suitable

good quality alternatives to accommodate them.

9.5

The Application site is therefore pivotal in enabling Thanet to achieve more significant

levels of economic growth and success than the draft Local Plan or more recent

economic forecasts identify. As shown below by setting the different forecasts to the

common BRES base, the delivery of the Application site can significantly enhance

employment growth.





Figure 10 - Forecast Employment Growth

Source: BGVA Analysis of BRES, Experian and Oxford Economics, 2016

9.6 By providing the type and scale of space that will attract new businesses to Thanet it

can create an additional 2,000 jobs over and above those already being planned for.

This growth would be focussed on capturing the unmet demand for space that

existing sites do not have the quality or scale to accommodate, addressing the key

challenge identified by the Kent Property Market Report of a lack of large industrial

spaces despite a significant number of requirements.

9.7

With continuing strengths within the manufacturing sector, and a range of new drivers

in place to further enhance the sector ‟s prospects, Thanet is well placed to be a

location of choice for future growth in this (and related) sector providing it gets the

offer right. This in turn can have positive benefits for other employment locations in

Thanet as smaller local or supply chain businesses are attracted to them as part of the

larger economic hub.

9.8 The mix of a high quality location supported by on site amenities, with good quality

access infrastructure and direct links to key economic drivers suggest that the

Application site can provide a major boost to the local economy. Our analysis

suggests that current growth forecasts based on a functioning Manston Airport

scenario may underestimate local potential both in terms of demand from

employment growth and also supply-led opportunities.

BRES Forecast




9.9 Therefore, in considering future opportunities, the new future of the Application site as

a mixed use, employment generating location should be considered positively,

diversifying and expanding the portfolio locally to enable Thanet to compete at a

strategic level for new occupiers, and delivering 2,000 new jobs that are unlikely to be

attracted to the district without the Application site‟s offer .

SHP2016 - PSA Economic Need

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