September, 25 2008 Macro Program 1 – Embrapa National Challenge SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario...
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Transcript of September, 25 2008 Macro Program 1 – Embrapa National Challenge SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario...
September, 25 2008
Macro Program 1 – EmbrapaNational Challenge
SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario Simulation
based on Regionalized Climate Change Projections
Dr. Gregory Jones and
Dr. Jorge Tonietto Visit
Firsts Future Agriculture Scenarios
Model(s)Input Data Simulation & Analysis
Modeling/Simulation Process
Climate Information:
P, T, Water Def.
Agrometorological Crop Database:
• Cycle and phenological phases• Culture Coef. (Kc)• Phenological critical phase• Soil Water Retention• Root Zone• Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption
Planting Date Definition based on:
Integraion indexes
WRSI = ETR/ETM
Rain excess probability on harvest
Water Deficit
High Temperatures
Low Temperatures
Climate Information:
P, T, Water Def.
Agrometorological Crop Database:
• Cycle and phenological phases• Culture Coef. (Kc)• Phenological critical phase• Soil Water Retention• Root Zone• Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption
IPCC 2001 IPCC 2007
Planting Date Definition based on:
Integraion indexes
WRSI = ETR/ETM
Rain excess probability on harvest
Water Deficit
High Temperatures
Low Temperatures
Model(s)Input Data Simulation & Analysis
Climate Information:
P (+5%, +10%, +15%),
T (+1°C, +3°C, +5,8°C)
Water Def.
Agrometorological Crop Database:
• Cycle and phenological phases• Culture Coef. (Kc)• Phenological critical phase• Soil Water Retention• Root Zone• Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption
Modeling/Simulation Process
CoffeeCoffee
Condition
Production1,000 x bags (60 Kg)
TOTAL MINAS GERAIS PARANÁ SÃO PAULO
Atual 26.231 18.660 2.500 5.071+ 1°C 22.262,5 15.174 2.910 4.178,5
Difference -3.968,5 -3.486 +410 -892,5 US$ 94.6 /bag: (US$ 375,420,100/year)
Tabela 1 –Coffee production (60Kg bags) in the states of Minas Gerais, Paraná e SãoPaulo and possible alterations due to elevation in temperature of 1C (15 years). Damagein economy close to US$ 375 million per year.
Current
Actuation FrontierProjectInteractions
Climate Changes – IPCC Scenarios
Environmental Condition Monitoring: - trend evolution - basin water balance - land use change - droughts and floods
- agro & forest burning - desertification
Trend Analysis: T, P, extreme events
Crop / Animal
Pests & Mutualists
Decease & e Symbionts
Soil Sta
nda
rd D
evel
opm
ent
Und
er T
incr
ease
Und
er [
CO
2]
incr
ease
Und
er P
incr
ease
Und
er P
dec
reas
e
Agro/Forest System Modeling(parameterization e simulation)
ProductiveSystems
Products & Residue
Processem.
C/CO2 Eq
Balance Agr
o/F
ores
t S
cena
rios
De
finiti
on
Fou
ndin
g f
orm
C M
arke
t &
Env
ironm
ent
al S
ervi
ces;
Tec
hnol
ogy
Tra
nsfe
r &
Pu
blic
Pol
icy
Mitigation:- product. syst.
change and crop substit.- C stock on Flor./Soil/Agr
- deforestation and burn reduction- altern.
energy and biofuel.
Risk and Sustainability Analysis - Social, Economic & Environment
Met
eorD
BA
gro
gase
sA
gro
ener
gy P
lat.
Adaptation:- new product
systems- biotechnology
-- genetic melioration (T, drought and flood resist. varieties)--genomic
-- nanoseq-- gene prosp.
-- new technol.- new public
policy
Soi
l DB
Program on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects ProposalsProgram on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects Proposals
What has been proposed?
SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario Simulation
based on Regionalized Climate Change Projections
Execution time: 4 years (2009 – 2012)
Leader: CNPTIA - Giampaolo Queiroz Pellegrino
Team: >100 researchers, ~ 30 different Embrapa units, > 10
other Brazilian research institutions
Field Experiments
Growth Chamber
FACE
Integrating production and
pest/diseases modeling
Simulation process
Forms of disclosure:
uncertainty / probability
Economic Analysis
How can we advance?
Data from Global and
Regional Circulation Models
and "Downscaling“: RegCM3,
Price, ETA; ~ 10 IPCC models;
+ Brazilian Model (20km)
Statistical simulation of the
near future climate scenario
based on historical data. Data
quality.
Temporal scale: daily,
decendial, monthly ...
Stochastic Modeling
Production Modeling
Process Modeling including
physiological processes:
photosynthesis and respiration
Physiological Processes:
Effect of T / fertilization by CO2
Technological Advancement:
Genetics / production
techniques
Input Data Models Simulation/Analysis
Project MP1 - SCAFHypothesis
The main hypothesis on this project is that climate change impacts on the main
Brazilian crops are going to induce new agriculture, forest & livestock future
scenarios. These future scenarios will configure a new production matrix and
geography and will affect national economy, being possible to analyze and
quantify them by using simulation techniques, fed by regional and global climate
change scenarios, and economic analysis methods to reach productive matrix
optimization.
Project MP1 - SCAFTechnical-Scientific Questions
To test this hypothesis, we pose some technical-scientific questions:
1. How to regionalize, or downscale, global climate change projections to increase spatial and temporal
agriculture scenario resolution?
2. Extreme event frequency increase is already detectable over the Brazilian different regions? How to
include this trend on future agriculture scenario simulation?
3. What are the changes on Brazilian crop physiology induced by CO2 concentration and temperature
increase? How to consider these changes on crop modeling and scenarios simulation?
4. How to estimate and consider the technological advancements on crop modeling and scenarios
simulation?
5. Which are the better computational tools and information technology to simulate and publish resultant
scenarios over the web?
6. Based on each future agriculture scenarios which productive matrix will be more likely to happen and
what would be its economic impact on Brazilian economy?
Project MP1 - SCAFGeneral Objective
Assess and quantify the impacts caused by global climate
change on the major economic crop in Brazil, by means of
future agricultural scenarios simulation based on
projections of future regionalized climate scenarios,
indicating strategic guidelines for the new productive
configuration.
Project MP1 - SCAFSpecific Objectives:
- To detect trends of climate change using global and regional circulation models and
stochastic models to determine future climate scenarios.
- To develop projection technology and simulation models to assess the impacts of global
climate change on the main crops of grain, industrial, fruit, fodder and forest in Brazil.
- To quantify the economic impact of likely changes in agricultural scenarios as a function of
the climate change scenarios regionally adapted to Brazilian conditions, defining optimized
crop configuration for sustainable production to face the global climate changes.
- To analyze, develop and operate high-performance computing platform for integration of
climate scenarios and crop models for the simulation of future agricultural scenarios to be
generated
President
(Project Leader)
Vice-President
(Project Vice-Leader)
Internal Community Representatives
(Component Project Leaders)
External Community Representatives
(University, Research, Government)
MANAGER COMMITTEE
CP
7 –
FA
Sc
Pas
ture
/ Fo
dd
er
(Bra
ch. b
riza
nta
, Pan
icu
m, C
ench
rus,
Lu
lium
e f
od
der
cac
tus)
CP
6 –
FA
Sc
Fo
rest
Tre
es(P
inu
s, E
uca
lyp
tus,
Mim
osa
sca
bre
lla A
caci
a m
ern
sii,
Sch
yzo
lob
ium
am
azo
nic
um
, Scl
ero
lob
ium
pan
icu
latu
m ,
Tec
ton
a g
ran
dis
, Hev
ea b
rasi
lien
sis
and
Ara
uca
ria)
CP
5 –
FA
Sc
Fru
its
(pea
ch, a
pp
le, p
ear,
gra
pes
, ban
ana,
man
go
e c
oco
nu
t)
CP
4–F
AS
c In
du
stri
al c
rop
s
(cas
tor
bea
n, c
ott
on
, su
nfl
ow
er,
cass
ava,
sug
arca
ne,
ora
ng
e)
CP
3 –
FA
Sc
Gra
ins
(so
ybea
n, w
hea
t, c
orn
, so
rgh
um
, ric
e &
bea
n)
CP1 – Network management
(Project execution and infra-structure)
CP2 – Trend analysis
CP8 – Economic Analysis of Future Agricultural Scenarios
CP9 – Information Technology for Database and Simulation
Crops been simulated on two other projects:
GOF Embaixada Britânica and Petrobrás
CP – Component Project (Action Plan)
FASc – Future Agricultural Scenarios
Component Projects – Action Plans CP1 - Management: Technical and administrative management; and
strategic management (interaction with University, Research,
Government, Funding Agencies)
CP8 - Economy: organization / management of economic
information; economic analysis of the current productive matrix; and
an economic analysis of future scenarios and expansion trends.
CP9 - Information Technology: Solution for high performance
computing simulation; modeling of BD; and Development of
Simulator.
Activities of Component Projects for Crops
Component Project T e
CO2 i
ncre
ase
expe
rimen
ts
"Em
piric
" M
odel
ing
Gro
wth
Mod
elin
g
Clim
ate
Risk
Si
mul
ation
Char
acte
rizati
on a
nd
Anal
ysis
of F
utur
e Ag
ricul
ture
Sce
nario
s
Qua
ntific
ation
of
Vuln
erab
ility
e
Tech
nolo
gica
l Ad
vanc
es
Gro
wth
and
Dis
ease
M
odel
Inte
grati
on
Oth
er S
peci
fic
Activ
ities
CP3 - Grain * * * * * *CP4 - Industrial + + + * * *CP5 - Fruit + + + * * * +
CP6 - Forest + + + * * * +
CP7 - Fodder + + + * * *
* All crops+ Some crops
Actuation FrontierProjectInteractions
Climate Changes – IPCC Scenarios
Environmental Condition Monitoring: - trend evolution - basin water balance - land use change - droughts and floods
- agro & forest burning - desertification
Trend Analysis: T, P, extreme events
Crop / Animal
Pests & Mutualists
Decease & e Symbionts
Soil Sta
nda
rd D
evel
opm
ent
Und
er T
incr
ease
Und
er [
CO
2]
incr
ease
Und
er P
incr
ease
Und
er P
dec
reas
e
Agro/Forest System Modeling(parameterization e simulation)
ProductiveSystems
Products & Residue
Processem.
C/CO2 Eq
Balance Agr
o/F
ores
t S
cena
rios
De
finiti
on
Fou
ndin
g f
orm
C M
arke
t &
Env
ironm
ent
al S
ervi
ces;
Tec
hnol
ogy
Tra
nsfe
r &
Pu
blic
Pol
icy
Mitigation:- product. syst.
change and crop substit.- C stock on Flor./Soil/Agr
- deforestation and burn reduction- altern.
energy and biofuel.
Risk and Sustainability Analysis - Social, Economic & Environment
Met
eorD
BA
gro
gase
sA
gro
ener
gy P
lat.
Adaptation:- new product
systems- biotechnology
-- genetic melioration (T, drought and flood resist. varieties)--genomic
-- nanoseq-- gene prosp.
-- new technol.- new public
policy
Soi
l DB
Program on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects ProposalsProgram on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects Proposals
Thanks for your attention!