Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth · 2012. 10. 28. · Abstract Introduction Empirical...
Transcript of Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth · 2012. 10. 28. · Abstract Introduction Empirical...
AbstractIntroduction
Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth
Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang
ZHAO Yue, Kyoto University
Jan.2012
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AbstractIntroduction
Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Abstract
• Two-sector endogenous growth model with credit-driven stockprice bubbles.
• Bubbles’s effectI Credit easing effect(CEE): bubbles relax collateral constraints and
improve investment efficiency.
I Capital reallocation effect(CRE): bubbles in a sector attract morecapital to be allocated to that sector.
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Empirical EvidenceThe Model
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Introduction
• Question: How do bubbles affect long-run economic growth?
• Object: Credit-driven bubbles• Accompanied by credit expansion.
I Optimistic beliefs → positive feedback loop → looser credit standardsand bubbles.
• Have real effects and affect market fundamentals.I Large elasticity of substitution → Negative capital allocation>
Positive capital allocation →Bubbles retard growth.
• Appear in a particular sector or industry.I Housing bubbles. internet bubble...
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Introduction
• Method:
• Base paper: Miao and Wang(2011)
• Two-sector endogenous growth model with credit-driven stock pricebubbles
I Capital in one sector has positive externality effect on human capital.
• Credit constraintI loan repayment ≤ stock market value with the collateral.
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Literatures
• Impact of bubbles on endogenous economic growth.• OLS model with endogenous growth due to externality in capital
accumulation.
• Saint-Paul (1992), Grossman and Yanagawa (1993),King andFerguson (1993)
• Key assumption: Bubbles are on intrinsically useless assets.• Conclusion: Bubbles crowd out investment and reduce the growth
rate of the economy.
• Infinite horizon endogenous growth AK model with financial frictions.
• Hirano and Yanagawa (2010)• Key assumption: Bubbles are also on intrinsically useless assets, but
can be used to relax collateral constraints;investment heterogeneity.• Conclusion: The degree of pledgeability is relatively low,bubbles
enhance growth.
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Literatures
• Bubbles in production economies with exogenous growth.• Introduce capital adjustment costs to the Diamond-Tirole model
and study the episodes of speculative growth
• Caballero, Farhi, and Hammour (2006)
• The effects of bubbles in the presence of financial frictions.• Caballero and Krishnamurthy (2006) and Farhi and Tirole (2010)• Conclusion: Bubbles can provide liquidity and crowd in investment.
• Kocherlakota(2009), Martin and Ventura (2011a), and Miao andWang (2011)
• Conclusion: Bubbles can relax collateral constraints and improveinvestment efficiency.
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Innovation
• Bubbles are attached to productive assets.
• Growth rate of a bubble here equals to the interest rate minus thedividend yield generated by the bubble,not the interest rate in theTirole (1985) model.
• Two production sectors.
• Sectoral bubbles have a capital reallocation effect betweenproduction sectors,which has not been studied in the literature.
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Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Credit easing effect
• Gan (2007b): Every 10 percent drop in collateral value, theinvestment rate of an average firm is reduced by 0.8 percentagepoints.
• Chaney, Sraer, and Thesmar (2009): The sensitivity ofinvestment to collateral value is stronger the more likely a firm is tobe credit constrained.
• Goyal and Yamada (2004): Investment responds significantly tostock price bubbles.And asset price shocks primarily affect firms thatrely more on bank financing and not necessarily those that useequity financing.
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Credit easing effect
Figure 1: Credit easing effect using China’s data
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Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Capital reallocation effect
Figure 2: Capital reallocation effect using China’s data
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Empirical EvidenceThe Model
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
Environment
• Households, final goods producers, capital goods producers, andfinancial intermediaries.
• Infinite; continues-time; no aggregate uncertainty.
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.1 Household
∫ ∞
0
e−ρt log(Ct)dt
• Household earn labor income, trade firm stocks and make depositsto the financial intermediaries.
• Labor supply: Inelastic; normalized to 1.·CC
= rt − ρ (1)
I rt: interest rate,and equal to the rate of return on each stock.
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Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.2 Final Goods Producers
• Each final goods producer hires labor and rents two types of capitalgoods to produce output
Yt = Aωα−1
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1
(K1tNt)1−α (2)
• View sector 1 as the sector producing human capital, sector 2 asthe manufacturing sector.
• Knowledge has a positive spillover effect through human capital.
I kit: the stock of type i =1;2 capital goods rented by a final goods producer
I Kit: the aggregate stock of type i capital
I A: TFP
I σ: the elasticity of substitution between the two types of capital
I ω: share parameter
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Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.2 Final Goods ProducersFinal Goods Producers’problem:
maxkit,k2t,Nt
Aωα−1
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1
(K1tNt)1−α−ωtNt−R1tk1t−R2tk2t
(3)F.O.C
(1− α)Yt
Nt= wt (4)
Aαω1σωα−1(K1tNt)
1−α
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1−1
k− 1
σit = R1t (5)
Aα(1− ω)1σωα−1(K1tNt)
1−α
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1−1
k− 1
σ2t = R2t
(6)
I wt: wage rateI Rit: rental rate of type i capital
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.3 Capital Goods Producers
• Ex ante identical but heterogeneous ex post because they faceidiosyncratic investment opportunities.
• This assumption captures firm-level investment lumpiness andgenerates ex post firm heterogeneity.
• Law of motion for capital of firm j in sector i between time t andt+ dt
Kjit+dt =
{(1− δdt)Kj
it + Ijit with probability πdt
(1− δdt)Kjit with probability 1− πdt
(7)
• Capital Goods Producers’problem
Vi0
(Kj
i0
)= max
Ijit
∫ T
0
e−∫ t0 rsds
(RitK
jit − πIjit
)dt+ e−
∫T0 rsdsViT
(Kj
iT
)(8)
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.3 Capital Goods Producers• Financial frictions
Ijit ≤ RitKjit + Lj
it (9)
• Firms do NOT raise new equity,Loans do NOT pay interest paymentsI Lj
it: bank loans
I RitKjit: internal funds
Ljit ≤ Vit
(ξKj
it
)(10)
• Interpretation• Collateral constraint: following Kiyotaki and Moore (1997),the bank
never allows the loan repayment Ljit to exceed the stock market
value Vit(ξKjit) of the pledged assets.
• Enforcement constraint: when the investment opportunity arrives atdate t; the continuation value to the firm of not defaulting is notsmaller than the continuation value of defaulting.
Vt
(Kj
t + Ijt
)− Lj
t ≥ Vt
(Kj
t + Ijt
)− Vt
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t
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Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.3 Capital Goods Producers
Note
• Kiyotaki and Moore (1997)’s collateral constraint: liquidation valuerules out bubbles
Ljit ≤ ξQitK
jit (11)
I Qit: shadow price of the capital produced in sector i.
• Here allow the collateralized assets to be valued in the stock marketas the going-concern value when the new owner can use theseassets to run the reorganized firm after default.e.g.
Vit
(Kj
it
)= Qit
(ξKj
it
)+Bit
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.4 Competitive Equilibrium
Let I1t =∫Ijitdj and K1t =
∫Kj
itdj denote aggregate investment andaggregate capital in sector i.A competitive equilibrium consists of trajectories(Ct) , (Kit) , (Iit) , (Yt) , (rt) , (wt),and (Rit),i = 1, 2,such that:
(i) Households optimize so that equation (1) holds.(ii) Each firm j solves problem (8) subject to (7), (9) and (10).(ii) Rental rates satisfy:
R1t = Aαω1σωα−1(K1tNt)
1−α
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1−1
k− 1
σit
(12)
R2t = Aα(1− ω)1σωα−1(K1tNt)
1−α
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1−1
k− 1
σ2t
(13)
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
3.4 Competitive Equilibrium
(iii) The wage rate satisfies (4) for Nt = 1.(iv) Markets clear in that:
Ct + π (I1t + I2t) = Yt = Aωα−1
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1
(K1t)1−α
(14)To write equations (12), (13), and (14), we have imposed themarket-clearing conditions kit = Kitand Nt = 1 in equations (5), (6), and(2).
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
4.1 A Single Firm’s Decision ProblemProposition 1: Suppose Qit > 1,then:(i) The market value of the firm is given by (15);
Vit
(Kj
it
)= QitK
jit +Bit (15)
Bit > 0,thenLj
it ≤ Vit
(ξKj
it
)= ξQitK
jit +Bit (16)
(ii) Optimal investment is given by:
Ijit = (Rit + ξQit)Kjit +Bit (17)
(iii) (Bit;Qit) satisfy the following differential equations:
rtQit = Rit + (Rit + ξQit)π (Qit − 1)− δQit +•Qit
(18)
rtBit = π (Qit − 1)Bit +•Bit
(19)
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AbstractIntroduction
Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
4.1 A Single Firm’s Decision Problem
(vi) And the transversality condition:
limT→∞
exp
(−∫ T
0
rsds
)QiTK
jiT = 0, lim
T→∞exp
(−∫ T
0
rsds
)QiTB
jiT = 0
(20)
I Qit: determined variable;the shadow value of capital.
I Bit: determined variable:bubble component.
•Bit
Bit+ π (Qit − 1) = rt for Bt > 0 (21)
• Bubbles are on productive assets and their growth rate is less thanthe interest rate, therefore they cannot be ruled out by thetransversality condition.
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Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
4.2 Equilibrium System
Proposition 2: Suppose Qit ¿ 1, then the equilibrium dynamicsfor(Bit, Qit,Kit, Iit, Ct, Yt)satisfy the following system of di.erentialequations:
•Kit
= −δKit + πIit, Ki0 given (22)
Iit = (Rit + ξQit)Kit +Bit (23)
together with (14), (18)-(19), and the transversality condition:
limT→∞
exp
(−∫ T
0
rsds
)QiTKiT = 0, lim
T→∞exp
(−∫ T
0
rsds
)QiTBiT = 0
(24)where R1t and R2t satisfy (12) and (13), respectively, and rt satisfies (1).
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AbstractIntroduction
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Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
4.3 Bubbleless Equilibrium Bit = 0• Without financial frictions: Qit = 1
R1t = R2t = R∗ ≡ αA (25)
ω
1− ω=
K1t
K2t(26)
K1t = ωKtK2t = (1− ω)Kt if define Kt = K1t +K2t (27)
Yt = Aωα−1K1−α1t
[ω
1σ k
σ−1σ
it + (1− ω)1σ k
σ−1σ
2t
] ασσ−1
= AKt (28)
g0 = αA− ρ− δ < A− ρ− δ (first-best).• With financial frictions: Qit > 1, collateral constraints are binding.
g∗ =
·Kit
Kit= −δ + π (Rit + ξQit) (29)
(r + δ)Q∗ = R∗ + π (R∗ + ξQ∗) (Q∗ − 1) (30)
Q∗ =(1− π)αA
ρ+ πξ(31)
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AbstractIntroduction
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Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
4.3 Bubbleless Equilibrium Bit = 0Proposition 3: Suppose
αA− ρ− δ > 0 (32)
(i) If
ξ >αA (1− π)
π− ρ
π(33)
then consumption, capital, and output on the balanced growth path growat the rate
g0 = αA− ρ− δ (34)
(ii) If
ξ <αA (1− π)
π− ρ
π(35)
αAπ (ρ+ ξ)
ρ+ πξ> δ (36)
then the balanced growth path grow at the rate
g∗ =αAπ (ρ+ ξ)
ρ+ πξ− δ < g0 (37)
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AbstractIntroduction
Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
4.3 Bubbleless Equilibrium Bit = 0To ensure a balanced growth path when collateral constraintsbind,ξ should satisfy:
ρ (δ − αAπ)
π (αA− δ)< ξ <
αA (1− π)
π− ρ
π
Intuition behind the determinant of growth:
g = −δ +π (I1t + I2t)
K1t +K2t= −δ + s
Yt
Kt(38)
where the aggregate investment rate or the aggregate saving rate
s =π (I1t + I2t)
Yt=
απ (ρ+ ξ)
ρ+ πξ
• Both s and the Y/Kare constant along a balanced growth path.• Larger π =⇒ more investment opportunities =⇒ larger g∗
• larger ξ =⇒ looser collateral constraints =⇒ raising the investmentrate.
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AbstractIntroduction
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Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
5.Symmetric Bubbly Equilibrium,Bit > 0On the balanced growth path, the growth rate gb satisfies:
r = gb + ρ (39)
Becauser = gb + π (Qit − 1) (40)
Therefore,the capital price on the balanced growth path Qb
Q1t = Q2t = Qb =r − gb
π+ 1 =
ρ
π+ 1 (41)
Therefore,the interest rate Rb satisfies:
(r + δ)Qb = Rit + π(Rit + ξQb)(Qb − 1) (42)
BecauseR1t = R2t = Rb = αA (43)
• Two sectors face the same degree of financial frictions =⇒ thepresence of bubbles in both sectors does not distort capitalallocation across the two sectors. 26 / 35
AbstractIntroduction
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Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
5.Symmetric Bubbly Equilibrium,Bit > 0Proposition 4: Suppose condition (36) and the following condition hold:
ξ <αA (1− π)
ρ+ π− ρ
π(44)
Then, on the balanced growth path,(i) Both the bubbleless equilibrium and the symmetric bubbly equilibriumexist;(ii) The economic growth rate in the symmetric bubbly equilibrium isgiven by:
gb =(1 + ρ)αA
ρ+ π+ ρξ − ρ− δ (45)
(iii) g∗ < gb < g0 Because
gb =
•Kit
Kit= −δ + π
(Rb + ξQb +
Bit
Kit
)(46)
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AbstractIntroduction
Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
6.1 Bubbles in the Sector with ExternalityIf B1t > 0, and B2t = 0 ,then on the balanced growth path
r = g1b + ρ (47)
r = g1b + π (Q1 − 1) (48)
ThereforeQ1 =
ρ
π+ 1 > 1 (49)
Because(r + δ)Q1 = R1t + π (R1t + ξQ1) (Q1 − 1) (50)
Therefore
R1 =1
π
ρ+ π
1 + ρ[ρ (1− ξ) + δ + g1b] (51)
From the F.O.C of final goods producers,(R1t
R2t
)σ
=ω
1− ω
K2t
K1t(52)
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AbstractIntroduction
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Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
6.1 Bubbles in the Sector with ExternalityThen
R1 = Aαω1σ+α−1
[ω
1σ +
1− ω
ωσ−1σ
(R1
R2t
)σ−1]ασ−σ+1
σ−1
(53)
R1t = R1 and R2t = R2 are constant. Because
g1b =
•K1t
K1t= −δ + π
(R1 + ξQ1 +
B1t
K1t
)(54)
g1b =
•K2t
K2t= −δ + π (R2 + ξQ2t) (55)
Thus, Q2t = Q2 is also equal to a constant. Sinceρ+ g1b︸ ︷︷ ︸r
+δ
Q2 = R2 + π (R2 + ξQ2) (Q2 − 1) (56)
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AbstractIntroduction
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
6.1 Bubbles in the Sector with ExternalityTherefore,
Q2 =1− π
πξ + ρR2 (57)
Substituting this equation into (55) yields
R2 =1
π
πξ + ρ
ξ + ρ(δ + g1b) (58)
(51),(58) and (53) yields a nonlinear equation for g1b.
Proposition 5: Suppose that there exists a unique solution (R1, R2, g1b)
to the system of equations (51), (53) and (58).Suppose that:
g1b >(ξ + ρ) (π + ρ)
1− π− δ > 0 (59)
Then the steady-state asymmetric bubbly equilibrium with B1t > 0 andB2t = 0 exists and the economic growth rate is g1b.NoteB1t/K1t > 0,Q2 > 1 and Q1 > 1 =⇒ R1 < R2
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AbstractIntroduction
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
6.2 Bubbles in the Sector without ExternalityIf B1t = 0,and B2t < 0 ,then on the balanced growth path,
Proposition 6 Suppose that there exists a unique solution (R1, R2, g2b)
to the following system of equations:
R1 =1
π
πξ + ρ
ρ+ ξ(δ + g2b) (60)
R2 =1
π
π + ρ
ρ+ 1[ρ (1− ξ) + δ + g2b] (61)
together with (53). Suppose that
g2b >(ξ + ρ) (π + ρ)
1− π− δ > 0 (62)
Then the steady-state asymmetric bubbly equilibrium with B1t = 0, andB2t < 0 exists and the economic growth rate is g2b.
NoteB2t/K2t > 0,Q2 > 1 and Q1 > 1 =⇒ R2 < R1 31 / 35
AbstractIntroduction
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
6.3 Do Bubbles Enhance or Retard Growth?
Proposition 7 Suppose that the conditions in Propositions 3(ii) and 4-6hold.(i) If σ > 1/(1− α), then
g2b < g∗ < gb < g1b
(ii) If 0 < σ < 1/(1− α), then
g∗ < g1b < gbg∗ < g2b < gb
(iii) If σ = 1/(1− α),then
g2b = g∗ < gb = g1b
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AbstractIntroduction
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Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
6.3 Do Bubbles Enhance or Retard Growth?
Define β = K1t/Kt,then
Yt
Kt= Aωα−1
[ω
1σ β
σ−1σ + (1− ω)
1σ (1− β)
σ−1σ
] ασσ−1
β1−α (63)
g = −δ +π (I1t + I2t)
K1t +K2t= −δ + s
Yt
Kt(38)
• Credit easing effect (CEE) relaxes the collateral constraints andraises the aggregate saving rate s
• Capital reallocation effect (CRE) influences capital allocationbetween the two sectors represented by β
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AbstractIntroduction
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Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
6.3 Do Bubbles Enhance or Retard Growth?
• Bubbleless and the symmetric bubbly equilibria, β = ω but s goesup, therefore no CRE but only CEE,=⇒ gb > g∗.
• Asymmetric bubbles, β > ω.
• B1t > 0,then the externality effect raises the Y/K. CRE let g1b go up.Butsince CEE decrease, then g1b goes down.Only when σ > 1
1−α, CRE
dominates, the gb < g1b.
• B2t > 0,
• CRE is negative compare to symmetric bubbly equilibria due to theless productive sector 2. And CEE decrease,therefore g2b < gb.
• CRE is negative,but CEE is positive compare to bubbleless equilibriadue to the bubble in sector 2.Therefore only σ > 1
1−α,CRE’s effect
dominates, g2b > g∗.
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AbstractIntroduction
Empirical EvidenceThe Model
Equilibrium CharacterizationSymmetric Bubbly Equilibrium
Asymmetric Bubbly EquilibriumConclusion
This paper showed...• Bubbles have a credit easing effect in that they relax collateralconstraints and improve investment efficiency.
• Sectoral bubbles also have a capital reallocation effect in thatbubbles in one sector attracts capital to be reallocated to thatsector.
• If the elasticity of substitution between the two types of capitalgoods is relatively large, then the capital reallocation effect willdominate the credit easing effect.
• In this case, the existence of bubbles in the sector that does notgenerate externality will reduce long-run growth.Bubbles may occurin the other sector that generates positive externality or in bothsectors. In these cases, the existence of bubbles enhances economicgrowth.
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