Scottish Independence Open Democracy - Independence Referendum Survey January 2014, Phase 1 results

TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694

Scottish Independence Open Democracy

Independence Referendum SurveyJanuary 2014

Phase 1 results

TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 2

Likelihood of votingTwo thirds claim they are ‘certain to vote’ in the referendum, suggesting higher than usual engagement

Q12 How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

Certain to vote

Very likely to vote

Quite likely to vote

Not very likely to vote

Certain not to vote

65

13

11

7

4

%

73% of Yes voters and 76% of No voters claim they are certain to vote.

Among undecideds, 42% claim they are certain to vote, highlighting the influential role this group is likely to

play in the debate.


Yes

No

Don't know

29

42

29

Yes

No

Don't know

32

49

19

Voting IntentionsCurrently, three in ten (29%) adults in Scotland intend to vote Yes, 42% No and 29% are undecided; those who claim to be certain to vote are more likely to have an opinion, but one fifth of this group is undecided

S1 There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) / All who are certain to vote (779)

All adults 16+ All certain to vote


Keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers

Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs

Full independence for Scotland

Don’t know

31

35

24

10

Devo MaxDespite not featuring on the referendum ballot, the option of ‘Devo Max’ would be supported by one third (35%), and is most popular among those who are currently undecided

S1A Thinking more generally about the future of Scotland, which of these three options would you support the mostBase: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

All adults 16+

Yes Voters (287)

No voters (493)

Undecided (274)

0

58

22

18

40

44

78

0

6

5

2

27

Don’t know

Full independence for Scot-land

Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs

Keep the current arrange-ment of a Scottish Parlia-ment with its existing powers

%

%


Knowledge about the issuesOver half (56%) indicated that they do not have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote, rising to 81% among undecideds

Definitely have enough knowledge

Probably have enough knowledge

Probably do not have enough knowledge

Definitely do not have enough knowledge

Don't know

13

30

35

21

2

%

Enough knowledge =

43%

Q6 To what extent do you feel that you have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote in the referendum?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

Not enough knowledge =

56%

56% of Yes voters and 53% of No voters claim they have enough

knowledge compared to just 15% of undecideds.

Among this latter group, 81% feel they do not have enough

knowledge.


Yes, read all of it

Yes, read some of it

Aware of the white paper, but not read

any of it

Not aware of the white paper

1

13

57

29

%

Awareness and reading of White PaperWhilst seven in ten claim to have heard of the White Paper, only 14% indicated they had read any of it.

Read any of the White Paper =

14%Aware of the White Paper

= 71%

Q7: The Scottish Government white paper on Scotland’s independence (called “Scotland’s Future”) was launched on 26th November. Had you heard of the white paper before today, and if so have you read any of it?Base: All Adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)


Cameron vs. SalmondTwo thirds (67%) agreed that there should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron and Alex Salmond, with 17% disagreeing

There should be a debate on the key issues between David

Cameron (Prime Minister of the UK) and Alex Salmond (First Minister of Scotland)

48 18 12 5 12 5

Agree Strongly Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree slightly Disagree Strongly Don't know

Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)

Three quarters (75%) of Yes voters agree there should be a debate, as do 60% of No voters

and 68% of Undecideds

%


Effectiveness of campaignsNeither campaign appears to have performed well so far, with 32% agreeing that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK and 34% agreeing that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of Independence

The Better Together (No) campaign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland stay-

ing in the UK

The Yes Scotland (Yes) cam-paign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland becoming

independent

11

13

21

21

25

21

16

16

17

21

10

8



Yes voters appear to be more satisfied with their campaign – 58% of Yes voters agree that Yes

Scotland has outlined the benefits of independence, whilst 48% of No voters agree that Better Together

has outlined the benefits of the UK

%


Visibility of campaignsThere is agreement that both campaigns need to be seen and heard more in the debate, though there is greater demand for Better Together to increase their presence

The Better Together (No) campaign needs to be seen

and heard more in the debate

The Yes Scotland (Yes) campaign needs to be seen and heard more in the de-

bate

35

31

29

24

18

19

6

10

4

9

8

6



73% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland needs greater visibility,

compared to 81% of No voters who feel the same about Better Together

%


Methodology

A representative sample of 1054 adults aged 16+ across Scotland was interviewed for the research between 14th and 20th January 2014.

All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing).

Interviewing was conducted in sampling points across 67 constituencies selected to represent Scotland geographically and demographically.

A quota sampling method was used for respondent selection.

To ensure the sample was representative of adults 16+ in Scotland, a weighting matrix was applied to the data according to gender, age, and social grade to match population estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from

the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results.

TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694

Scottish Independence Open Democracy

Independence Referendum SurveyJanuary 2014

Phase 1 results

Scottish Independence Open Democracy - Independence Referendum Survey January 2014, Phase 1 results

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Transcript of Scottish Independence Open Democracy - Independence Referendum Survey January 2014, Phase 1 results