Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

Scottish Independence Referendum:

200 Days to Go

#KingsIpsosMORI

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Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI

Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 Days to Go Mark Diffley

Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland • 11/11/13

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No poll has ever shown a majority in favour of

independence

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

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Should Scotland be an

independent country? Yes 32%

No 57%

Undecided 11%

February 2014

Base: All certain to vote

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Not much has changed in the last two years

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

No

Yes

Undecided

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Deprivation and national identity appear to be key drivers

Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

3%

4%

12%

49%

69%

British not Scottish

More British thanScottish

Equally Scottishand British

More Scottish thanBritish

Scottish not British

Yes

British not Scottish

More British than

Scottish

Equally Scottish

and British

More Scottish than

British

Scottish not British

47

20

41

71

Most deprived areas Least deprivedareas

Yes No

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45% Scots who…

may not vote (22%)

will vote but are undecided (9%)

will vote but may change their vote (14%)

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Which way are you inclined to vote?

Undecided voters lean marginally towards ‘Yes’

Base: All undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014

Yes 39%

No 29%

Undecided 33%

All undecided voters

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What will happen afterwards?

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The referendum is less important outside Scotland

Data collected among 2,244 British adults aged 16-75 6th-11th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI

72%

17%

Scotland England/Wales

% saying referendum is important to them in 2014

Q1a/Q2a Which, if any, of the following have you done in the past 12 months? Base (n=2,600)

To what extent do you agree or disagree that

Scotland should be an independent country?

19% Agree

43% Disagree

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If Scotland votes Yes?

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If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative

impact or no impact on each of the following? The Scottish economy/ The amount of public

money available to spend in Scotland

Economic impact closely correlated with voting intention

Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014

88%

8% 43%

5%

83%

28%

Yes No Undecided

73%

9%

40%

12%

75%

25%

Yes No Undecided

Scottish economy Amount of public money available

to spend in Scotland

Positive

Negative

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More likely Yes 16%

More likely No 34%

No difference 44%

If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a

negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The strength of the pound

And concerns about impact on currency


25% 5% 13%

29%

68%

38%

Yes No Undecided

Strength of the

pound

Undecided

voters

How has currency union

announcement affected undecideds?

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negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK Economy

Voters across Britain concerned about impact on UK economy

Base: All. England & Wales data collected among 1,012 British adults aged18+1st-3rd February 2014. Scotland data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th-25th February 2014

18%

57%

England/Wales

20% 8% 15%

43% 69%

40%

Yes No Undecided

UK economy –

Scotland only UK economy – England

and Wales only

15


What about the “social union”?

16


12% 14%

63% 50%


15% 16%

47% 37%


If Scotland votes Yes to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a negative

impact or no impact on each of the following? Relations between Scotland and the rest of the

UK/Cultural links between Scotland and the rest of the UK

An unamicable divorce?


Relations between Scotland

and the rest of the UK Cultural links between

Scotland and the rest of the UK

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negative impact or no impact on each of the following? The UK’s standing in the world

Concern that the UK will be diminished


The UK’s standing in the

world

13% 10%

51% 40%


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And if Scotland votes No?

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If Scotland votes NO to independence, do you think this will have a positive impact, a

negative impact or no impact on each of the following…?

Business as usual?

47% 46% 46% 44%

36% 35% 34%

50% 47% 45%

49%

29% 34%

50%

UK’s standing in the world

UK economy Cultural links Strength of thepound

Scottisheconomy

Relations Public money



% No Impact

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If Scotland votes No…

69%No impact

46%No impact

If Scotland votes Yes/No to independence, do you think this will have a positive

impact, a negative impact or no impact on each of the following?

Many feel the result won’t have an impact on them personally


If Scotland votes Yes…

63%No impact

20%No impact

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This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI

Scottish Independence Referendum: 200 days to go

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