Holger Geißler, September, 17th, 2014

Current polls about Scottish Referendum

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Agenda

• Who we are

• Opinions on the Scottish Referendum

• Independence, yes or no?

• Economic perspectives

• Campaigns

• Methodological issues

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Should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no?

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Latest Scottish Referendum YouGov poll

Fieldtime: September, 9th – 11th, 2014n = 1,268 Scottish Adults

45%

50%

2%4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes No Would not vote Don´t know

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Independence, yes or no?

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The trend (YouGov polls only)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes No Don´t know / wouldn´t vote

1. TV debate

2. TV debate

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7 September – YouGov poll for Sunday Times showed „Yes“ in the lead

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Counterstrike

Last week, following our shock poll, the No campaign fought back strongly, with Gordon Brown appealing to

Labour voters flirting with independence. Better together was aided by retailers warning of higher prices and

Scottish banks warning of moving their headquarters to London, should Yes win on Thursday. Our midweek poll

caught a marked change of mood. Not only did we report a 3% swing back to No, which returned to the lead, albeit

only narrowly. More significant was the six point rise in the number of Scots thinking Yes would be bad for their

economy – and an eight point rise in the number fearing that their own finances would suffer.

Peter Kellner, YouGov, 15 September 2014

Economic perspectives

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Economic perspectives

Fieldtime: February, 3rd – 5th, 2014, August, 12th – 15th, 2014, September, 2nd – 5th, 2014, September, 9th – 11th, 2014n = 1,047 Scottish Adults, 1,085 Scottish Adults, 1,084 Scottish Adults, 1,268 Scottish Adults

47% 46%42%

48%

25%

32%

40%37%

12%10% 9%

7%

16%12%

10%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

February, 2014 August, 2014 September, 2014 September, 2014

Do you think Scotland would be ECONOMICALLY better off orworse off if it was an independent country?

Worse off Better off No real difference Don´t know

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Personal economic perspectives

Fieldtime: August, 12th - 15th, 2014, Sptember, 2nd - 5th, 2014, September 9th - 11th, 2014n = 1,085 Scottish Adults , 1,084 Scottish Adults, 1,268 Scottish Adults

19%23%

21%

42%

37%

45%

22%25%

23%

17%15%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

August, 2014 September, 2014 September, 2014

Do you think you personally would be financially better orworse off if Scotland became an independent country, or

would it make no difference?

Better off Worse off No difference Don´t know

Campaigns

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Campaigns: Yes Scotland was seen more positive

Fieldtime: August, 12th – 15th, 2014 n = 1085 Scottish Adults

39% 40%41%38%

48%

34%37%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes Scotland Better Together

Do you think the campaigns so far have been positive or negative, orhonest or dishonest?

Mostly honest Mostly dishonest Mostly positive Mostly negative

Methodological issues

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Independence, yes or no?

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Methological issues

• Sample error

• Every poll is only based on a „random“ sample

• Every sample has a sample error

• Confindence intervalls (n=1.000): e.g. 48% „Yes“ means that the vote will be in the intervall between 44,8% up to 51,2% (but indeed the most likely result is 48%)

• Turnout

• Assumed to be high – usually good for pollsters

• But: People on the very fringes of society are usually underrepresented in opinion polls of all sorts. In most voting intention polls this doesn’t matter, because this people are also unlikely to vote. But if the voter turnout is high, these people are likely to vote – and this could be a potential source of error.

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Splitting of the vote after subgroups

Yes No Would not vote Don´t know

Birthplace:

Scotland 48% 48% 1% 3%

Elsewhere in UK 27% 63% 4% 6%

Outside the UK 33% 51% 10% 6%

Gender:

Male 51% 44% 1% 3%

Female 39% 55% 2% 4%

Age:

16-24 44% 51% 3% 2%

25-39 54% 36% 4% 6%

40-49 48% 48% 1% 4%

60+ 35% 63% 0% 3%

Party preferences:

Con 3% 96% 1% 0%

Lab 19% 77% 1% 3%

Lib Dem 13% 87% 0% 0%

SNP 92% 7% 0% 1%

Fieldtime: September, 9th – 11th, 2014n = 1,268 Scottish Adults

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Predicted regional differences in vote

http://vis.oobrien.com/indyref/

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Tomorrow will be „High Noon“ – result on Friday, 7am

• Polling stations open at 7am on Thursday 18 September and close at 10pm.

• There will be no “Exit poll”!

• The ballots will be counted overnight and the final result is due around 7am on Friday morning.

• Ballots will be counted at 32 local areas

• The smaller population centres are expectedto declare first (from 2am) on. The results from Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh expected last, between 5am and 6am.

• What could delay the result?

• Bad weather

• Very high turnout

• Recounts

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Holger GeißlerBoard member

T +49 221 42061-344 F +49 221 42061-100

holger.geissler@yougov.de

Thank you for your kind attention!

YouGovGustav-Heinemann-Ufer 72D-50968 Köln

www.yougov.deresearch.yougov.de