Andrew Reynolds

Office of the S&T Adviser to the Secretary of State

Science and Engineers for America

December 7, 2010

S&T, Engineering and Innovation in 21st Century Diplomacy and Development

Outline of Remarks

Historical Context - “The past is a foreign country: people act differently there.”

SET - Strategic Assets for National Security, Diplomacy, Development

State-AID Joint Strategic Plan – Hard, Soft, Smart Power

Crystal Ball Darkly – Project HORIZON and SET Implications

Sampling of Short, Mid and Long-term Issues for SET

Obama National Security Strategy, Foreign Policy, QDDR

Science Diplomacy and Development – New Emphasis

Some Transformational Show Stoppers, Game Changers

Innovation , Global Competitiveness and Intellectual Security

Science and

Technology

Adviser to

the Secretary

S&T and Engineering Defined Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

Science is the study of the natural world and has two parts: (1) a body of knowledge that has been accumulated over time (2) a process—scientific inquiry— that generates knowledge about the natural world.

Engineering, too, consists of a body of knowledge—in this case knowledge of

the design and creation of human-made products—and a process for

solving problems. It is an oversimplification, but in many ways engineering

is the practical application of scientific knowledge.

Technology is a product of engineering and science.

“A scientist studies what is, an engineer creates what never was.”

Theodore Von Karman

Role of S&T in Global Affairs

Global Leadership in S&T is transitory

In the 19th century, and at the outset of the 20th century, the dominant global S&T power was Europe.

Since the middle of the 20th century, the dominant global S&T, engineering power has been the United States.

Science and

Technology

Adviser to the

Secretary

In the 21st century, a new internationally collaborative reality is emerging since:

1. the scientific and engineering challenges are more complex in nature and global in impact

2. scientific research itself is increasingly international

3. technology is developed within a global framework

Role of S&T in Global Affairs Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

• S&T and engineering advances have significant and

often rapid influence on national and global economies,

cultures, societies and international relations.

• Nations are largely shaped by their expertise in and

access to S&T and engineering assets and their ability

to innovate; today, such assets are more ubiquitous.

• Disruptive technologies provide opportunities and

benefits, but can also challenge our social institutions,

ethical principles and our national security.

• Long-range planning and horizon scanning are

indispensable to cultivate foresight, to make sound

public private policies and investments, and to provide

strategic warning when societal stability is threatened.

Cold War to Post Cold-War Vannevar Bush Vision in ―Endless Frontier‖ and ―Modern Arms and Free Men‖

Fostered the NSF and University Research, Atomic Energy Commission,

US S&T Boom after WWII

Atomic Era, Space Era, Information Era, Digital Era

State S&T Cadre Adequate, Supported by AEC/DOE, NASA, NIH into 1980s

Department Budget cut ~20% in real terms between 1985-2000

State Personnel Cut Domestically and Abroad – Other USG Agencies

(DOE, NASA, NIH) also Reduced Presence Overseas

Number of International Agreements and Treaty Commitments Doubled

Fission of USSR - 1991 - US Opened 14 New Embassies – Self-Cannibalism

State, IC Downplayed Need for S&T Personnel at End of Cold War

S&T Personnel Retired, S&T Career Path at State Ended in 1993

Remaining S&T Personnel Focused on Environment, Climate Change

Acute Crisis in S&T Personnel and Issue Coverage by 1997

Concerns from External S&T Community Catalyzed Action

13/16 of the 1999 International Affairs Strategic Goals

for the Department of State Involve Science, Technology or Health

Outlined in

The Pervasive Role of Science,

Technology, and Health In Foreign Policy:

Imperatives for the Department of State

Compiled by the National Research Council and

Published by National Academy Press in

1999 SOURCE: “United States Strategic Plan for International Affairs, First Revisions, “ released by the Office of Resources, Plans, and

Policy, U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C., February 1999. See

http://www.state.gov/www/global/general_foreign_policy/99_stratplan_toc.html.

STAS Core Objectives

(1) Increase S&T Literacy at State – Personal and Training

(2) Build Partnerships with Outside S&T Community – Domestic, Foreign

(3) Advise the Secretary, other Senior Staff on Critical, Current S&T Issues

(4) Foster Strategic Planning Anticipating Mid, Long-term S&T Issues, Trends

(5) Reinforce and Support S&T and Innovation for Development at USAID

Experts Conclude S&T Are Core Drivers of Change

USCNS – ―The Roadmap for National Security – Imperatives for Change‖ (1996-98)

NDU ―The Global Century – Globalization and National Security‖ (2000)

NIC ―Global Trends 2015‖ and ―Mapping the Global Future 2020‖ (2003, 2006)

RAND ―Global Technology Revolution 2020‖ (2006)

NRC Report ―The Pervasive Role of S&T and Health in Foreign Policy‖ (1999)

NRC Report ―The Fundamental Role of S&T in International Development‖ (2006)

State Department ―Project Horizon‖ at the Year 2025 (2007)

NIC Global Trends 2025 (2009)

STAS Mission Statement

Strengthen State S&T Strategic Planning and Human Resources as Hard, Soft,

―Smart‖ Power Assets for U.S. Diplomacy and Development Policy

National Security and S&T Policy Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

Three Pillars of U.S. National Security:

• Intelligence

• Diplomacy

• War fighting

S&T and engineering - bricks and mortar

S&T in 21st Century Diplomacy

and Development Policy

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

―In the 21st century, American foreign policy must have a sound scientific foundation.

And we must build on that foundation to stem the spread of infectious diseases

such as HIV-AIDs, to stop proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to lift

people out of poverty, and lead states onto the path of sustainable development.

Now more than ever, American science must enlighten American statecraft. But

the partnership between science and statesmanship is a two-way street.

American diplomacy must also help advance world science.‖

Secretary Colin Powell – May 2004

―I think science, as a diplomatic tool, is great…openness in recognizing that there

are no boundaries and therefore keeping ourselves open to other people,

making sure that we are at the center of scientific discourse. Today, dynamic

advancements in science and technology are transforming he world — making it

possible for more and more people to compete equally across all fields of

human endeavor. America must remain at the forefront of this new world.‖

Secretary Condoleezza Rice – May 2005

―We also need to work with our friends around the world. Science, technology and

innovation proceed more rapidly and more cost effectively when insights, costs

and risks are shared; and so many of the challenges that science and technology

will help us meet are global in character. This is true of our dependence on oil, the

consequences of climate change, the threat of epidemic disease, and the spread of

nuclear weapons. And that is why my administration is ramping up participation in

-- and our commitment to – international science and technology cooperation

across the many areas where it is clearly in our interest to do so.‖

President Barack Obama – April 2009

―I think science diplomacy and science and technology cooperation between the United

States and other countries is one of our most effective ways of influencing and

assisting other nations and creating real bridges between the United States and

counterparts. Science and technology is one of the highest priorities for the

countries with whom we are dealing. And we have to be more creative and more

focused, and we need more partners. ―

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – July 2009

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

S&T in 21st Century Diplomacy and

Development Policy

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

Who We Are One of Four Original Executive Branch Departments

Secretary of State Third in Succession

First Archive for State Documents

Declaration of Independence

Constitution

FY 10 Budget Request ~ $45 billion - State, USAID

Approximately 61,000 employees

12,500 Foreign Service

– 7,000 Generalists

– 5,500 Specialists

8,500 Civil Service

40,000 Foreign Service Nationals

HQ, 163 Embassies, 98 Consulates

USAID – 2,500 employees, 100+ Missions

State Department and U.S. Agency for

International DeveIopment

Strategic Goals

Achieving Peace and Security – Counter-terrorism, WMD, Conflict Prevention, Crime, Homeland Security

Governing Justly and Democratically – Rule of Law, Human Rights, Good Governance, Political, Civil Society

Investing in People – Health, Education, Social Services for Vulnerable Populations

Promoting Economic Growth and Prosperity – Markets, Trade, Investment, Energy Security, Environment

Providing Humanitarian Assistance – Protection, Assistance, Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Migration

Promoting International Understanding – Foster Positive Vision, Common Interests, Marginalize Extremism

Strengthening Consular, Management Capabilities – Consular Services (visas, passports), 21st C Workforce

U.S. Department of State and

U.S. Agency for International Development STRATEGIC PLAN - Fiscal Years 2010-2014

Mission Statement

Advance freedom for the benefit of the American people and the international community by

helping to build and sustain a more democratic, secure, and prosperous world composed of well-

governed states that respond to the needs of their people, reduce widespread poverty, and act

responsibly within the international system.

Science, Engineering, Technology (SET)

Support State/USAID Joint Strategic Goals

Hard Power

Peace and Security - SET for National Security, Regional Stability, CT

―Smart‖ Power

Good Governance – SET Meritocracy, Transparency, Protection of IPR Investing in People - K-12 Science and Math, Higher Education, Research Economic Growth – SET Partnerships Foster Innovation, US Business

Soft Power

Humanitarian Assistance – SET for Sustainable Development Promoting International Understanding – SET for Diplomacy, Outreach

Intelligent Power or ―Enlightened Self-Interest‖

Strengthening Consular and Management Capabilities – SET Literacy

Project Horizon – An Overview

Purpose

– To develop strategic interagency capabilities in which the U.S. Government should consider investing in order to prepare for the threats and opportunities that will face the U.S. and the world over the next 20 years

– To provide participating agencies with a scenario-planning toolset that can be used to support both internal and interagency, joint planning

– To provide a starting point for a permanent interagency planning process

Participants

– USG senior executives from more than 15 agencies, strategic planners, and subject matter experts together with select academics and private sector participants

– Participating agencies: NSC, Agriculture, Commerce, Defense (OSD and J5), Energy, EPA, HHS, DHS, ODNI, Labor, National Defense University, MCC, State, Treasury, and USAID

Project Horizon brought together USG national security and global

affairs agencies for joint, scenario-based strategic planning based on

alternative scenarios at the year 2025

Challenge to Nation

State Power and

Influence

Gap in Global

Standard of Living

U.S. Economic

Competitiveness

Perception of Serious

Threat to U.S. Security

and/or Quality of Life

• Level of Stability and Conflict

• Non-traditional actors

• Borders: nature and permeability

• Charismatic leadership (source of)

• Terrorism

• Global Media

• Religion

• Poverty & Development

• International Crime/Illicit Economy

• The Global Commons

• Energy

• Agriculture/Food

• Water & Other Critical Resources

• Global Health

• Environment

• Demographics

• Science and Technology

• Global alliance structures

• Role/structure of transnational business

and business organizations

• Dynamics of international debt

• Unemployment/ social fabric

• Global Culture

PARTIAL LIST OF DRIVERS

Building the Scenarios Based on 200 interviews, ‗drivers‘ were identified and then distilled into dimensions of broader, more universal scope

• Global Perception of the U.S.

• U.S. Economy GDP growth;

• Availability of capital/ investment climate

• Employment

• Trade and investment (FDI) relationships

• Resource dependency

• U.S. Political Landscape

• Locus of political power

• Public perception of government

• Integration/ fragmentation of U.S. society

• Education

• Health care

• Aging population of U.S.; societal and

political effects

DIMENSIONS

HORIZON – Forces for Change

1. Global Interdependence

2. Science & Technology (S&T) Competition

3. China and India

4. Natural Resources/Energy

5. Global Perceptions of the U.S.

6. Changes in Military Power

7. Environmental Change

8. Global Health and Disease

Most frequently mentioned forces for change expected to drive the

landscape of opportunities and threats through 2025

9. Advances in Science and

Technology

10. Globalization, Poverty, and

Development

11. Demographics

12. Religion

13. Sovereignty and the Role of

the Nation-state

14. Terrorism

15. Interagency Issues

The Project Horizon Scenarios:

An “Electron Cloud” in 2025 Asian Way

– In this world, the global economy increasingly is dominated by Asian mega-

corporations that are expanding at the expense of the formerly dominant

American and European economic and military powers and alliances

Be Careful What You Wish For

– Not without its problems to manage, this is a world of opportunity, freedom, and

great technological advance. The USG is overstretched operationally and finds a

world made up of activist fellow democracies challenged in unexpected ways

Lockdown

– This is a multi-threat world marked by persistent terrorism, nuclear proliferation,

and the most challenging economics the U.S. – and the world – have faced in

more than 50 years – two WMD attacks in 15 years

Congagement

– Political and economic power increasingly are organized regionally. It is a

vibrant, tense and highly competitive world with multiple points of friction

Profits and Principles

– Many have benefited from hyper-capitalism, many others have not. Public

institutions are increasingly weak while new, powerful organizations are

emerging. The global clash between profits and principles is causing fear that

these divergent paths could end up on a collision course

Quadrennial Strategic Review – A coordinated interagency strategic planning process for USG global affairs

activities that links the President’s National Security Strategy and other National Strategies with agency-level Strategic and Performance Plans, Budget Submissions, and Performance and Accountability Reports

Government-Wide Information Sharing – Transformed government-wide information sharing, including revised doctrine,

procedures, and incentive structures for shifting the USG from a ―need to know‖ model to a ―need to share‖ model of information access

Global Domain Foresight – The ability to maintain anticipatory global domain awareness to enable

proactive responses to emerging man-made and natural threats

Interagency Fusion Groups – The streamlined ability to create, staff and monitor time-limited interagency

organizations specifically focused on emerging strategic issues featuring clear lines of accountability, cross-agency resource control and authority

Global Health Engagement – A strategic approach to the mobilization of interagency and non-governmental

public health assets to advance U.S. leadership and public diplomacy efforts

Strategic Interagency Capabilities:

Recommendations - All Scenarios

Global Hazards Planning and Response – An integrated USG preparedness planning and rapid response function

capable of managing the interagency response to significant global hazards in partnership with other nations and non-governmental actors as appropriate

Human Resources Model for Global Affairs – A revised set of cross-government HR policies, procedures, and incentive

structures to enable the rapid assembly of capable, integrated, and trained USG personnel for global affairs activities

Global Affairs Learning Consortium – A jointly governed network of global affairs training institutions (e.g., FSI,

NDU, etc.) that mutually leverages training, exercise, and experimentation offerings to create a rich, coherent curriculum for USG global affairs professionals

USG Public Private Partnership Framework – USG capacity to partner effectively with private sector entities, state and local

governments, and non-government organizations (NGOs), foundations, and educational institutions

Science and Technology Incentive Framework – An S&T incentive framework that better aligns USG S&T investments with

emerging, long-term global priorities and rewards collaborative S&T across the interagency and with academic, private sector and other national partners

Strategic Interagency Capabilities

Recommendations - All Scenarios

Secretary’s Advisory Committee

on Transformational Diplomacy

Five ACTD Working Groups Transformational Diplomacy Workforce and Training

State Department in 2025 IT Transformation

Private Sector Partnerships

Key Recommendations

Expand and Modernize Workforce – More S&E Expertise Here and Abroad

Integrate Foreign Affairs Strategies and Resources

Strengthen Ability to “Shape” the World with Proactive Diplomacy

Harness 21st Century Technology and Knowledge Management

Engage the Private Sector through Greater Public-Private Partnerships

Streamline the Organizational Structure

Track and Measure Success

“A Call to Action – The Advisory Committee on Transformational Diplomacy”

Released February 5, 2008; see links at www.fido.gov and www.state.gov

Enhancing the S&T Literacy and

Capacity of State and USAID

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

Fellowships

American Association for the Advancement of Science

(AAAS) Fellowships

Professional Science Society Fellowships

American Institute of Physics, Institute of Electrical and

Electronics Engineers, American Chemical Society

Jefferson Science Fellowships

S&T Student Internships (in the U.S and abroad)

Embassy Science Fellows (from the USG)

Careers

Joining the Department of State and USAID

S&T Expertise in the U.S. Policy Community

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

JEFFERSON SCIENCE FELLOWS (JSF)

Tenured U.S. academic faculty in the Dept. of State for 1

year of service followed by 5 years of consultancy

• Engaging the U.S. S&T academics in the formulation and

implementation of U.S. foreign policy

• U.S. universities participate by paying the salaries and

benefits for their faculty selected to be JSFs.

• A public-private partnership piloted by MacArthur

Foundation, Carnegie Corp., U.S. universities and

professional scientific societies and State

• Now a permanent program in State and USAID

Short to Medium Term (1-3-5 years)

Food Security, Soil Conservation, Agro-biotech, Nutrition

Sustainable Development of Watersheds, Natural Resources

Ecological and Habitat Protection, Endangered Species

Environmental, Meteorological, Climate Research

Energy Technologies – Solar, Bio-fuels, Wind, Fuel Cells, Fission

Nanotech, Biotech, Info-tech and Synergies Between Fields

Critical Infrastructure Protection – UK, Australia, Singapore

Broadband Access, Internet Freedom and Internet Governance

RS, Geospatial Sciences and GIS for Sustainable Development

International Space Station, New Deep Space Missions

CT, Non-proliferation, Dual-Use Technology Export Controls

Science and

Technology

Adviser to the

Secretary

Some Programs, Activities

Where SET and Innovation Are Seminal

Mid- to Long Term (5-10-15+ years) Shifting Demographics, Youth and Aging Populations

Megacities Lacking Infrastructure especially in Regions Vulnerable to Earthquakes, Other Natural Hazards

Food, Fiber, Fuel – Competition for Arable Land and Water

Alternative Energy Technologies – Hydrogen, Breeders, Fusion

Adaptation (with a capital “A”) to Local Regional Climate Change

Next Generation Internet – Social Web 2.0 (2000-2010) to

Semantic Web 3.0 (2010-2020) to Intelligent Web 4.0 (2020-2030)

Multilateral Organizations and Mechanisms

OECD S&T Policies, Programs, including Global Science Forum

S&T, Engineering, Education and R&D in UNESCO, UNCTAD, OAS

UN Organizations - WHO, WMO, UNEP, UNDP, IPCC

Organization of Islamic Conference; TWAS, ICTP - Trieste

Science and

Technology

Adviser to the

Secretary

Some Programs, Activities

Where SET and Innovation Are Seminal

U.S. National Security Strategy

Obama Administration

Four Principles:

1. build strength abroad by building strength at home through education, clean energy and innovation;

2. promote ―the renewed engagement of our diplomats‖ and support international development;

3. rebuild alliances;

4. promote human rights and democracy abroad.

National Security Strategy, May 2010

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf

Secretary Clinton, Council on Foreign Relations, July 15, 2009

U.S. National Security Strategy

Obama Administration

―We must first recognize that our strength and influence abroad begins with steps we take at home. We must educate our children to compete in an age where knowledge is capital, and the marketplace is global. We must develop clean energy that can power new industry and unbound us from foreign oil and preserve our planet. We have to pursue science and research that unlocks wonders as unforeseen to us today as the microchip and the surface of the moon were a century ago. Simply put, we must see American innovation as a foundation of American power.‖

―Our Armed Forces will always be a cornerstone of our security, but they must be complemented. Our security also depends upon diplomats who can act in every corner of the world, from grand capitals to dangerous outposts; development experts who can strengthen governance and support human dignity ; and intelligence and law enorcement that can unravel plots, strengthen justice systems, and work seamlessly with other countries.‖

National Security Strategy, May 2010 http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf

Secretary Clinton, Council on Foreign Relations, July 15, 2009

Five Pillars of U.S. Foreign Policy

Obama Administration

“Smart Power” translates into five specific policy priorities:

• Update and create new vehicles for cooperation to address a multi-partner vs multi-polar world

• Pursue principled engagement with those who disagree with us, e.g., Syria, Iran, North Korea

• Elevate development as a core pillar of American power and engrain in strategic planning, e.g., Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review

• Ensure that civilian and military efforts operate in a coordinated, complementary fashion, e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan

• Shore up traditional sources of influence – economics and the power of American example – life, liberty, pursuit of happiness

Secretary Clinton, Council on Foreign Relations, July 15, 2009

Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR)

• Identify Gaps in Our Ability to meet Current, Emerging Challenges

• Emphasis on Civilian Power and Scaleable, Sustainable Solutions for 21st C Diplomacy and Grand Challenges for Development

• Five Working Groups

I. Building a Global Architecture of Cooperation

II. Leading and Supporting Whole-of-Government Solutions

III. Investing in the Building Blocks of Stronger Societies

IV. Preventing and Responding to Crisis and Conflicts

V. Building Operational and Resource Platforms for Success

• All WGs addressed Strategic Priorities, Key Capabilities,

Policy Gaps and Organizational Change Analysis, e.g., needed

structural and institutional changes, process changes, human

capital and management systems

Phase 1 - January 2010; Phase 2 – December 2010

S&T Diplomacy and Development Overarching Objectives

• Use S&T collaboration as a springboard for expanding and strengthening long-term, two-way relationships with foreign counterparts

• Promote S&T as engines for mutual economic advancement and prosperity

• Inspire new audiences with the power of S&T to improve their daily lives and address and solve common global problems

• Convey and share values inherent to scientific inquiry such as transparency, peer review, critical thinking, problem solving and innovation

To better utilize science, engineering and technology in diplomacy and development, the U.S. should strive to:

Operational Imperatives for S&T Education and Outreach

1. Expand people to people exchanges in S&T and engineering research cooperation, STEM education and publicize them as good news

2. Leverage platforms and spaces through more public/private partnerships to broaden our reach with S&T programs and information

3. Ensure content resonates with diverse audiences and captures their imagination, inspires youth and engages women

4. Strengthen institutional mechanisms to facilitate deeper, more diverse S&T collaboration

Increase Use of Virtual Platforms

to… Provide access to scientific information

• Expand use of virtual libraries

• Provide scientific journal content in security-risk environments, especially where scientific institutions are weak

• Promote distance education opportunities ―in‖ America

• Encourage aspiring scientists to ―go to MIT‖ (open courseware)

• Facilitate attendance by organizing ―real‖ classes at Centers / Corners

Engage in substantive discussion

• Promote DVCs/CoNX with U.S. leaders on S&T topics

• Expand offerings to discuss the science behind policy issues and well-known innovations

• Utilize social networking platforms for dialogue on scientific issues

• Stimulate discussion on science‘s role in solving local problems, U.S. science policy etc.

Empower citizen scientists

•Encourage connections between aspiring scientists, engineers

• Facilitate connections between local school science clubs, science fairs etc

• Leverage partnership with GLOBE to create participatory experiment on important policy issue

• Example: Students collect local soil salinity, rainfall, ground water, and feed global database -tied to curriculum unit on effects of desertification on food security

• U.S. and foreign classes hold regular webchat to discuss experience

Capturing the Imagination Inspiring Youth and Foreign Publics

Space USA

•Capitalize on intense youth interest and U.S. leadership •Partnership with NASA including Student Ambassadors, translated materials, Space Camp promotions, astronaut tours

National Geographic Expeditions

• PD events for outgoing NatGeoSoc expeditions

• Students follow expedition on GPS, web, mobile

• Follow-up session upon return

―The Science behind the iPod‖

•Partnerships with leading U.S. tech companies •Video series and exhibition seeing mechanics inside popular products and underlying science

Military Gadgets

• Youth often in awe of military technology (fighter jets etc.)

• Partner with DoD to exhibit old military gadgets and provide tours of naval vessels as appropriate

Youth Afternoons at Tech Trade

Shows

• Tech shows often bring cutting-edge products to cities

• Organize youth afternoons before or after shows for exclusive youth access

Science Museum Traveling Exhibit

• Partner with U.S. science museums to send parts of closing exhibitions to American spaces abroad

Zoo partnerships

• Encourage partnerships between U.S. and foreign zoos to create youth programming based on citizen science research (e.g. local animal watching)

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

Top Technology Applications Based on

Nano, Bio, and Info Research Synergies*

Energy: Cheap Solar Energy; Hybrid Vehicles

ITC: Rural Wireless Communications; Communication Devices for

Ubiquitous Information Access; Ubiquitous RF Identification

Tagging of Products and Individuals; Wearable Computers;

Quantum Cryptography; Pervasive Sensors

Manufacturing: Filters and Catalysts; Cheap Autonomous

Housing; Green Manufacturing

Food and Health: Next Generation GM Crops; Rapid Bioassays;

Targeted Drug Delivery; Tissue Engineering; Improved

Diagnostic and Surgical Methods

-----------------------------------

* ―The Global Technology Revolution – 2020‖, RAND National Security Research Division, 2006

Some Potential

Transformational “Show Stoppers”

SRI Consulting Business Intelligence for National Intelligence Council

Selected from 102 Technologies

Evaluated for Potential Geopolitical, Economic, Military and Cultural

Impacts on US National Power

Biogerontechnology – improvements in health, lifespan

Energy Storage Materials – impacts on fossil fuel consumption

Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals – nearer term alternatives to oil

Clean Coal Technologies – power generation, environmental gains

Service Robotics – civil and military applications

The Internet of Things – ubiquitous nodes, streamlining supply chains

“Disruptive Civil Technologies: Six Technologies with Potential Impacts on US Interests

our to 2025,” National Intelligence Council, CR 2008-07, April 2008

Megacities – Grand Challenge for Engineering

Compiled by Samuel K. Moore & Alan Gardner, IEEE Spectrum, June 2007 All Illustrations: Bryan Christie Design

Actionable Foresight Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

The following seven slides courtesy of:

Beverly Neale Rush

Center for the Study of Intelligence

“Where Tomorrow Will Take Us: The Future of Foresight”

Actionable Foresight Conference

National Defense University June 16, 2010

Today’s rapidly changing digital infrastructure has altered the equation

Intel 4004 Pentium Pentium II AMD K8

Itanium 2 Cell Core 2 Duo

AMD K10

Itanium 2 with 9 MB Cache

Core i7 (Quad) POWER6

Six-Core Opteron 24

Dual-Core Itanium 2

Six-Core Xeon 7400

Quad-Core Itanium

8-Core Xeon

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

1971 1982 1996 1999 2003 2006 2007 2010

Tran

sist

or

Co

un

t

A world of constant disruption…

A world of constant disruption…

It took two centuries to fill the US Library of Congress with more than:

29 million Books and periodicals

2.4 million Recordings

12 million Photographs

4.8 million Maps

57 million Manuscripts

Today, it takes about 5 minutes for the world to churn the equivalent amount of new digital information

has more computing power than the original Apollo mission to the moon

A world of constant disruption…

Today’s cell phone

>

With nearly unlimited space, governments, companies, and individuals are storing – and disseminating – unprecedented amounts of data

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010

.25 GB .5 GB

1 GB

2 GB

4 GB

128 GB

131,072 GB

Information stored per person worldwide

2020

Technology will enable groups and individuals with little resources to do big things:

As technology empowers individuals and small groups, we will see a potential rapid rise in the abilities of non-state adversaries and information industry competitors.

Companies will start and scale in days via the

cloud

Crowd sourcing will enable the few to unleash the efforts of

many

Anyone who wants it will

have access to vast computing

power

Brain power will become a highly scalable

commodity

In a rapidly changing world, organizations will embrace new models and ways of thinking about value:

What does this mean for the you?

While not all organizations can or should embrace these models, every organization will be challenged by them in the next 5 – 10 years

Open will increasingly

trump closed

Mobilizers will emerge as

leaders and titles will lose

relevance

Networks will replace

centralized models

Those that stay behind may

lose access to the best talent

As more and more data is stored in the cloud, and as the means to analyze it become widespread:

What does this mean for you?

Armed with powerful technology from the cloud, others will compete in the fields of actionable foresight, while drawing analytical talent away from traditional organizations.

Everyone will compete

But individuals and groups

Not just large organizations

On the ability to make sense of

vast amounts of data

National Security and S&T Policy ―Intellectual Security‖ and Competitiveness

U.S. Commission on National Security

21st Century

―Americans are living off the economic and security benefits of

the last three generations’ investment in science and education, but

we are now consuming capital. Our systems of basic scientific

research and education are in serious crisis, while other countries

are redoubling their efforts. In the next quarter century, we will likely

see ourselves surpassed, and in relative decline, unless we make a

conscious national commitment to maintain our edge.‖

(Executive Summary, p. ix)

“Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change, Phase III”

U.S. Commission on National Security - Hart-Rudman Report – 1998

National Security and S&T Policy Innovation for ―Intellectual Security‖

A Strategy for American Innovation

“History should be our guide. The United States led the world’s

economics in the 20th century because we led the world in

innovation. Today the competition is keener; the challenge is

tougher; and that is why innovation is more important than ever. It

is the key to new jobs for the 21st century. That’s how we will

ensure a high quality of life for this generation and future

generations, With these investments, we are planting the seeds of

progress for our country, and good-paying private sector jobs for

the American people.”

President Barack Obama, August 5, 2009

US “Ecology” of Innovation is Broken

The components of US innovation ecology were created in context of old technologies, not new ones with fast product cycles

Updating processes for these components are incremental and intended outcomes are not being measured

US patent system is too slow, obsolete to encourage innovation

Antitrust laws were written for era of scarcity, not ubiquity such as that of a digital, globalizing Microsoft world

Conclusion: future of manufacturing is not mass production, but mass customization by knowledge-intensive businesses

---------------------------

Derived from ―Changes in Innovation Ecology,‖ William Wulf, former President, NAE, in Science, Volume 316, 1 June 2007, p.1253.

Global Trends in Multilateral R&D Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

Survey of 200 multinational companies across 15 industries with

majority of respondents’ HQs in US or Western Europe

90% have R&D facilities outside home country, 20% have more than 50%

of their R&D personnel outside home country

75% of activity is R&D expansion, 25% relocation

Four factors drive location decisions: market potential; quality of R&D

personnel; university-collaboration; IPR protection

45% of respondents’ R&D at home or in other developed countries focus

on ―new‖ science, while only 22% in developing countries

Over next 3 years, 55% of respondents will increase R&D in China and

India alone, while 25% anticipate decreases in US and Europe

----------------------------

―Here or There? A Survey of Factors in Multilateral R&D Location,‖

Government-University-Industry Roundtable of the National Academies, 2006.

Innovation in the Modern Context

“The ability of individuals, companies and entire nations to continuously

create their desired future. Innovation depends on harvesting

knowledge from a range of disciplines besides science and technology,

among them design, social science and the arts.”

Version 1.0 – national innovation capability, entrepreneurs like Franklin

Version 2.0 - industrial model of innovation – Edison, Ford, IBM, Bell Labs

Version 3.0 – innovator-entrepreneur, venture capital, ―just-in-time‖ modes

Version 4.0 – in ―beta’ today, adapting to new models originating anywhere

and driven by global diffusion of innovation capability that has

ended American monopoly – One North, Digital Media City,

22@Barcelona, perhaps Masdar?

John Kao, Innovation Nation, Free Press, Simon & Schuster, New York, 2007.

National Security and S&T Policy Innovation for ―Intellectual Security‖

Food for Thought

Innovation Nation, John Kao, Free Press, Simon & Schuster, New York, 2007

Innovation 3.0 – San Diego, Boston, Silicon Valley, Research Triangle

Innovation ―Hubs‖ – BHAG‖ = Big Hairy Audacious Goal

20 Hubs, 20 ―Wicked Problems‖, $20 Billion

Manhattan Project, Apollo Program ($135 B in 2006 $)

National Innovation Advisor and National Innovation Council

The Dumbest Generation, Mark Bauerlein, Penguin, New York, 2008

Unplug the New Bibliophobes and Reduce Knowledge Deficits

Shop Class as Soulcraft, Matthew Crawford, Penguin Press, New York, 2009

More Tinkerers Needed; Restore Programs in Manual Trades and Crafts

The Essential Engineer: Henry Petroski, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 2010

Why Science Alone Will Not Solve Global Problems,

Office of the S&T Adviser -Website Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary

www.state.gov/g/stas

Innovation According to Schumpeter

1. The introduction of a new good — that is one with which consumers are

not yet familiar — or of a new quality of a good.

2. The introduction of a new method of production, which need by no

means be founded upon a discovery scientifically new, and can also

exist in a new way of handling a commodity commercially.

3. The opening of a new market, that is a market into which the particular

branch of manufacture of the country in question has not previously

entered, whether or not this market has existed before.

4. The conquest of a new source of supply of raw materials or half-

manufactured goods, again irrespective of whether this source already

exists or whether it has first to be created.

5. The carrying out of the new organization of any industry, like the

creation of a monopoly position (for example through formation of

trusts) or the breaking up of a monopoly position.

Joseph Schumpeter, The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard

University Press, Boston, 1934.

The Near Horizon -

Users Transforming Innovation?

Indigenous, ―leading-edge users‖, not consumers or profit-focused producers, are becoming the economic engines driving innovation

User-centered innovation facilitated by distributed design Internet collaboration

Users have IPR rules, informal networks, peer review mechanisms that transcend borders

Open Source software fosters more innovation, customer response

Denmark – 2005 - policy for ―strengthened user-center innovation‖

UK National Endowment for S&T, Arts funding user-centered research

Google, GE (medical MRI equipment) push user-developed innovation

Conclusion – user-driven innovation is the global trend and policy should not subsidize traditional (venture capital, top-down national targets, and champions) and proprietary approaches to innovation

-------------------------

Derived from ―Users Are Transforming Innovation― by Eric von Hippel, Michael Schrage, MIT Sloan School of Management, Financial Times, 11July 2007, p.13.

Programs and Funding in CY 2009

2009 Omnibus Appropriations Act (PL 111-8) and the American

Recovery and Reinvestment Act (PL 111-5)

Renewed Commitment to S&T Federal R&D, Technology and STEM Education – March, April 2009

Initiatives

President’s Speech at Annual Meeting of NAS – April 2009

President’s Cairo Science and Entrepreneurship Initiative – June

Strategy for American Innovation – September

(fact sheets, speeches, strategies available at www.whitehouse.gov)

Science and

Technology

Adviser to the

Secretary

Obama Programs, Funding, Initiatives

Where SET and Innovation Are Seminal

National Security and S&T Policy Innovation for ―Intellectual Security‖

Obama Strategy for American Innovation

(1) Invest in Building Blocks of American Innovation

- double R&D funding for NSF, DOE, NIST; make permanent R&D tax credit

- strengthen education across the board, particularly in STEM

- build (rebuild) America’s physical infrastructure; modernize electric grid,

develop high-speed rail network, new air traffic control system

- increase R&D in and develop advanced information technology ecosystem

- expand broadband access, assure net neutrality, Internet access

- secure cyberspace through resilience of systems, information sharing

- improve processing of high-tech visas

(2) Promote Competitive Markets that Spur Entrepreneurship

- promote American exports through open markets

- enforce trade agreements and protect intellectual property

- reform US export controls

(3) Catalyse Breakthroughs for National Priorities

- clean energy revolution through innovation; double renewable energy in 3 years

- support advanced vehicles, advanced bio-fuels, efficient industries

- enact a cap-and-trade program

- drive innovation in health care technology, increase medical research

- harness S&T to address the “Grand Challenges” of the 21st Century

National Security and S&T Policy ―Intellectual Security‖ through Innovation

Innovative Education Programs:

The Obama Agenda for College Affordability

Objective: Reduce costs, increase access to higher education

Programs:

• Expand Pell Grants - $500-2500 stipend increase; $200 B in 10 years

• Expand Perkins Loan Program – increase from $1.0 B to $6.0 B/year and

reform for needs-based approach – 2.7 million students, 2,600 colleges

and universities affected

• Reform Student Loan Program – replace guaranteed loans with direct loans

based on competition – estimated savings $4.0 B

• Simplify student aid application – currently 153 questions

• Help unemployed acquire new skills while retaining unemployed benefits

• Help families save for college – Middle Class Task Force, Treasury

reviewing 500+ savings plans to identify possible benefits

• American Opportunity Tax Credit - $2500

National Security and S&T Policy Innovation for ―Intellectual Security‖

Innovative Education Programs:

The Obama-Biden American Graduation Initiative

Objective: Five million more community college degrees and certificates by 2020

Programs:

• Community College Challenge Fund – strengthen partnerships with

business to foster a ―workforce investment system‖

- curriculum development – more course offerings, flexible enrolment

and admission requirements, credit transfer

- improve remedial adult education, vocational training

- comprehensive, personalized services for students

• New Research Centre to develop metrics for progress

• Innovation Strategies to Promote College Competition

• Modernize Community College Facilities - $2.5 B to leverage $10.0 B

• Create On-Line Skills Laboratory – reach rural areas, adults, DOD model

Total Funding: $12.0 B over next decade

National Security and S&T Policy Innovation for ―Intellectual Security‖

Innovative Education Programs:

K-12 – “Giving Every Child a World-Class Education”

Objective: Support K-12 education with new, innovative programs

Programs:

• New Investment in Early Childhood Education - $122 m increase to Head

Start; $300 m to Early Learning Challenge Fund for pre-schoolers

• Home Visitation Program - help for low-income for new parents and

newborns to improve child health, preparation for school - $8.5 B/10 yrs

• Support states in developing high standards for college, global competition

• Prepare and Reward Teachers and Principals - $487 m for Teacher

Incentive Fund to states and local governments

• Support for More Charter Schools - $52 m/year

• NGO Program ―What Works and Innovation Fund - $10 m/year in high-

poverty areas modeled after Harlem Children‘s Zone

• Expand Service Learning in Schools – connecting classroom with

community service opportunities - ―Learn and Serve America‖ program