Science Diplomacy & Transformational Development: New Models

Dr. Alex Dehgan

Science & Technology Adviser to the Administrator U.S. Agency for International Development

What does the World of 2050 look like?

Meta-analysis of Biological Impacts

• Correlated 90% changes in 28,800 biological processes against observed temperature increases.

• Looked at alternative causation due to landuse changes.

• In biological systems, changes include shifts in spring events (for example, leaf unfolding, blooming date, migration and time of reproduction), species distributions and community structure. Additionally, studies have demonstrated changes in marine-ecosystem

• In a few hundred years, people have released amounts of fossil carbon that took the planet hundreds of millions of years to store. (Rosenzweig et al., Nature, May 15, 2008)

Climate Change Impacts and Disease

• Within five months of arriving at El Cope in western Panama, chytridiomychosis extirpated 50 percent of the frog species and 80 percent of individuals.

Physical Impacts of Climate Change

• Increases in flood risk due to intensification of the global water cycle.

• Milly et al, Nature (2002) found that during the 20th century, “great floods”, increased substantially.

• Great floods were 1:100 year floods with basins > 200,000 km2.

• Consistent with climate model.

Stochastic to Deterministic Events

Likely: Intense tropical cyclone activity increases since the 1970s; increases in intensity Emmanuel et al. (2008), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

H1: Climate + Environment = Nonlinear Impacts

Habitat loss can cause some extinctions directly by removing all the individuals over a short period of time. Alternatively, it can be indirectly responsible for lagged extinction by facilitating invasions, improving hunter access, eliminating prey, altering biophysical conditions, and increasing inbreeding.

Loss of Biodiversity

Loss of Pollinators, Increased invasive species, increased disease risk, loss of economically important species.

Extinction of Species

• Globally, since 2002, most indicators of biodiversity (species population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines,

• Pressures (resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change) show increases.

• Only 2.7% of the approximately 1.9 million named, extant species have been formally evaluated for extinction by the IUCN.

• Insufficient data to estimate rates.

•New diseases are emerging at a "historically unprecedented" rate of one per year. In the last five years alone, WHO has documented more than 1,100 epidemics including bird flu, polio and cholera. •60% of recent EIDs are zoonotic, of those, 71.8% originate in wildlife.

Emerging Infectious Diseases

Global Agriculture

9 Billion people by 2050, 70-100% More Food, New Growing Middle Class in Brazil, India, China, Indonesia. 70% of harvested crops are fed to livestock in developed countries. 109 ha of Natural Systems will be converted to global agriculture. Loss of Natural Ecosystems equal to the US total Area. Losses from Latin American (Cerado, Amazon) and Sub-Saharan Central Africa. Loss of 1/3 Remaining tropical and temporate forms, savannahs, etc. 2.7x Phosphorus added, 2.4x Nitrogen, 2.7x Pesticides, Eutrophication has huge impacts on coast waters. Irrigated Area increased by 1.9x

Global Agriculture

What are the predicted critical impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, cropping practices, crop disease spread, irrigation? How can be build resilience to climate variability and extremes? How do we increase photosynthesis efficiency in plants, while decreasing environmental impacts? How can salinisation be prevented and remedied? How will predicted changes in meat consumption across different countries affect demand for a range of agricultural products. Need for a Greener Green Revolution.

State of the World: Fisheries

The global consumption of fish has hit a record high, reaching an average of 17kg per person, a UN report has shown. It said that about 32% of stocks were overexploited, depleted or recovering. They said that most stocks of the top 10 commercial species, which accounted for almost a third of global catches, were fully exploited. FAO State of the World Fisheries 2010

Pauly et. al. (2003) found that fisheries are declining by 500,000 metric tons/yr, not including estimates of by-catch.

The most explosive growth has been in the Third World, which has 213 cities of more than a million people and some 20 at the 10-million mark. Urbanization will grow steadily in the developing world: 75% of the world’s large cities are already in the developing world. By 2050, 2/3rds of the inhabitants of the developing world are likely to live in urban areas.

Less Developed Countries will have changed from 2x the population of Developed Countries in 1950, to 6x by 2050. Virtually all the population growth in the next 45 years will be in less developed regions. Half of the Global Increase will be in 9 Countries: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, DRC, Bangladesh, China, Uganda, Ethiopia, and the US. 51 countries or areas, most in the economically more developed world, will lose population between now and 2050.

Population

Ungoverned Voids

At the same time, the large ungoverned voids on the map, largely unconnected with the rest of the world, have become places that breed both despondency and terrorism.

Redefining Diplomacy

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You are here

The United States is no longer bordered by just Canada and Mexico.

Saeb Erakat

Traditional Diplomacy

Traditional diplomacy relates to territory and place. It was organized in the sovereign nation-states and the borders and limits are clearly defined. It is known as traditional diplomacy because it is more comfortable with geography and territory as the currency of diplomacy.

Traditional diplomacy was conducted between states; States were the only actors during this time period

History, Economics, Political Science.

Traditional diplomats are responsible for engaging primarily with host country officials

Issues such as climate change, energy, the emergence of infectious diseases, and environmental degradation are increasingly blind to political boundaries. Threats to one are frequently threats to all. Such threats are novel in their scope and potential impact on our foreign policy, national security, and future economic growth. These challenges are based in science, or find their solutions in science.

These new challenges require a new set of tools for the next generation of diplomats, soldiers and development professionals.

The Evolution of Defense, Diplomacy, and Development

Scientific Diplomacy During the Cold War

Has been used for the last 50 years, including during the cold war, but narrowly tailored. Old fashion diplomacy is no longer sufficient. The realm of diplomacy has greatly expanded to include other agents.

Promoting Moderation & Rationality

Scientific engagement serves U.S. interests to promote stability by empowering a traditional source of moderate leadership in the country.

Scientists frequently are the intelligentsia of society, and play important roles as leaders in many developing countries.

We can avoid the misuse of science through greater scientific engagement, rather than through greater isolation.

Promotes Important Values

The values inherent in science include honesty, doubt, respect for evidence, transparency and openness, meritocracy, accountability and tolerance and indeed hunger for opposing points of view.

June 2004 Zogby International Poll

• Only 11 percent of Moroccans surveyed had a favorable overall view of the United States—but 90 percent had a positive view of U.S. science and technology.

• Only 15 percent of Jordanians had a positive overall view, but 83 percent registered admiration for U.S. science and technology.

• Among people under 30, attitudes toward U.S. science tended to be even more positive.

The Public Diplomacy Challenge

Example 1: Medical Diplomacy with Iran

Why Engage Iran?

Nobel Laureate Joseph Taylor

Nobel Laureate Joseph Taylor

Note love-stricken women and admiring men

(1) Leaders in the middle east in total # publications/annum, growth rate of publications, behind Turkey & Kuwait in publications/capita;

(2) Sanctions have actually accelerated endemic scientific growth. Developed own line of stem cells for research. Different from Arab World, development of true knowledge society, and point of pride.

(3) US is foremost among international co-authors, not Europe, China, or Russia.

(4) Strong historical ties, significant, well-educated, expat community in US. Particular strengths in medicine. During the shah's era, Iranians made up the largest group of foreign students at U.S. schools, according to the Institute of International Education

Science is Important

Science Diplomacy Goals

•To relieve underlying factors and stresses leading to unproductive behavior.

•To build a scaffolding for engagement.

•To provide opportunities to save face (complex 5,000 year old Asiatic society).

•To encourage movement toward productive behaviors and actions and encourage cooperation in Afghanistan and Iraq.

•To prevent proliferation.

Mechanics of Science Diplomacy

Science Diplomacy must be more than a public diplomacy function, but be based on sound science.

Its greatest strength occurs when it is least politicized and is jointly conducted.

It must meet real needs within a country or region.

It is most successful when the benefits run both ways.

Environmental Diplomacy

with Iran

Panthera

WCS

1) Drug Addiction HIV/AIDS Programs. Two million drug addicts in Iran.

Advanced programs with needle distributions and methadone treatment. Harvard, Yale, NIH, UCSF, UC Berkeley (Since 2002).

2) Oncology. Esophageal, Gastrointestinal, Bladder, and Breast Cancers. Numerous rare cancer incidences in Iran that have caught the attention of the international medical research community. NIH.

3) Pediatric Medicine Programs. Happy Faces Program. Craniofacial/DDS surgeons provide free cleft palate surgery for children. The Foundation for the Children of Iran. Arranges for top level physicians in the US to provide life-saving surgery for about 5 Iranian terminally ill children a year. All of these children would die without treatment not available in Iran.

4) Foodborne Diseases. Review of mechanisms to survey outbreaks & provision medical training. The US National Academies and the Iran Academy of Sciences, Iran Academy of Medical Sciences; Iran Research Center for Gastroenterology & Livery Diseases, Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences; WHO, FAO. Oct. 2004; Nov. 2007.

5) Mustard Gas Exposure and Carcinogenesis of the Lung. Opportunity to research the long-term impacts of exposure to chemical weapons. National Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Connecticut.

Medical Diplomacy Examples

Example 2: Environmental Diplomacy & Security in Afghanistan

Problems • 30 years of conflict (continuing). • Failed or failing state • Weak leadership and decentralized

government • Diverse Ethnic and Linguistic Makeup .

Wakhan is barely known. No small mammal surveys have ever been conducted here, and few censuses of large mammals

.

Wakhan & the Pamirs

Biodiversity of Afghanistan Snow Leopards

It is estimated that there may be less than 100 snow leopards left in Afghanistan. Their numbers may be declining due to the high value of its fur, due to retaliatory persecution due to predation on livestock, and potentially due to losses in prey base.

Band-e-mir National Park, Bamiyan Province

Conservation as a means to operationalize democracy

Redefining Development

Premises for S&T in Development

• Many development and stabilization problems can be characterized by science or find their solutions through science.

• Great Leaps in Development are based in science; what science and technology will drive the next great leaps?

• Just as USAID created the last green revolution, we must create the next one: one that is more transformative, more inclusive, and more green. We must building economies of the future, not of the past.

• 80% of economic growth has been achieved through STI

• Technology can empower people to address traditional problems

1.Genetics & Barcoding. Open up the mechanics of humans and other animals, and plants to break barriers set by photosynthesis, deal with salinity, democratization of technology.

• Cost of sequencing the human genome, 13 years, 2.7 billion 1991 dollars. • Half way through the project – 7 years in, they were 1% done (power of the

exponential). Critics argued that that it would take 700 years to finish. • Cost of sequencing a single genome now, <$1,000 - $100 • Complete Genomics is developing a sequencing system that will increase its

throughput to 80 genomes per day. • Beijing Genomics Institute building a center that on one floor will have more

DNA-sequencing capacity than the entirety of the US. The BGI has already solved the genomes of rice, cucumbers, soyabeans and sorghum, honeybees, water fleas, pandas, lizards and silkworms, and some 40 other species of plant and animal, along with over 1,000 bacteria.

Five Revolutions in Science and Technology from Disruptive Technologies.

Cost of Whole Genome Sequencing

•Moore’s Law: The number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years.

•Cheap Storage + Portable Memory

•When IBM invented the RAMAC hard drive in 1956, it stored 5 megabytes of data and cost $50,000.

•A thumb drive using our memory could store a terabyte of information,”

•Decreasing exponentially:

•Average Transistor price

•Transistor Manufacturing costs

•Dynamic RAM size (smallest feature sizes decreasing exponentially)

• Computing in 3 Dimensions. (power savings, connectivity,

• The Power of Networks.

•Computing power of the internet – parallel processing

•3D Printers. Right now, you can print out 70% of the parts to create another 3D printer. Soon, 100%. Airplane, violin.

2. The power of computing is increasing exponentially, while the cost is decreasing exponentially – this provides us exceptional ability to use computer power to help understand and solve problems.

•Knowledge and the form of knowledge are expanding exponentially. This creates opportunity, but how are we creating this knowledge? •Crowdsourcing. •Remote Sensing •Mobiles as Sensors •Bioinformatics.

3. Data, Data, Data: A kid in Africa has more power and knowledge in his hand with a smart phone than President Clinton had 15 years ago.

50% Deflation Rate for Information Technology. Half the price in a year. Realize that this started with morris code. 5 Billion Cell phones around the world – they are now gateways to human knowledge, tools to create music and artwork, the are sensors.

In Africa: It took nearly 20 years to attract the first 100 million subscribers It took less than 3 years to attract the next 200 million subscribers. Leapfroging. 2012: 13 Million fixed Landlines, 333 M mobile phone subscriptions.

Developing Countries.

In 2000 the developing countries accounted for around one-quarter of the world’s 700m or so mobile phones. By the beginning of 2009 their share had grown to three-quarters of a total which by then had risen to over 4 billion.

Connect the Unconnected. Over 90% of the world has mobile coverage. No recent technology or intervention has had a greater impact on economic development than mobile phones, which now reach roughly four billion people globally.

4. Mobiles and the Power of the Network

•Needleless, temperature stable, vaccines through freeze drying, foam drying, and spray drying. •Labs on a Chip/Paper •Remote Access leveraging mobile platforms •Nanotech Advances •Programming Genes. •Stem Cells. Our ability to work with stem cells to create ready-made organs. We have been able to deal with the ethical questions by turning a skin cell back into an embryonic stem cell. •Targeted therapy: right drug, right patient, right moment.

5. Access to Medical Care, No matter where

AID is a Technical Agency

Science and technology helps define AID’s identity. It

creates a space that is unique to the organization, and that is distinct from either the Department of State or the Department of Defense. It allows for AID to take a leadership role.

AID is like NASA building rockets without engineers, but only managers?

Population Data

Socio-economic Data

Agriculture

Soils

Land Cover Political Boundaries

. . . Means

Seeing the

Whole

Measuring & Integrating the Parts …

Grand Challenges for Development

• How do we bring new solvers into development? How do we find new technological solutions that may exist in other fields.

– X-Prize): The Ansari X PRIZE was modeled after the Orteig Prize, won by Charles Lindbergh in 1927 for being the first to fly non-stop from New York to Paris, and mirrored the hundreds of aviation incentive prizes offered early in the 20th century that helped create today's $300 billion commercial aviation industry.

– Challenges

– Innocentive Models & Innovation Marketplaces

– Advanced Purchase Incentives.

• How do we better capture existing knowledge and solutions and apply them to development? How do we share information within an organization? How can we capture indigenous innovation?

Saving Lives at Birth

A woman dies from childbirth every 2 minutes

• The onset of labor marks start of high-risk period for mother and baby until at least 48 hours after birth. Each year –

150,000 maternal deaths 1.6 million neonatal deaths 1.2 million stillbirths

• Majority of deaths in low and middle income countries – less than half of these

mothers deliver in hospitals

Leveraging American Know-How

• We must leverage science, technology, and innovation at USAID. Science and technology, when coupled with innovation, hold the keys to achieving developmental breakthroughs. We are restructuring our Agency’s science and technology and innovation assets.

• This includes working with the entire federal science community and universities to confront challenges that affect farms in Omaha as well as Ouagadougou. How can we leverage 148 billion a year?

Thank you.