Russia’s return as superpower J van Capelleveen | E van der Kooij

Course International PoliticsClingendael Institute

December 8, 2009

In this presentation:

Definition of a superpower

Reasons why Russia currently can not be considered as a superpower

Can Russia act as superpower again?

Consequences for the Dutch position in international politics

Discussion

Characteristics of a superpower

Material power resources Militairy power (expanded nuclear arsenal) Economic power

Ideology of universal ambitions

Great influence on the development of international relations, global “spheres of influence”

U.S.

USSR versus modern Russia

Russia today (1) - domestic situation

Authoritarian government

Individual freedoms, but no political rights

Solid growth, increasing economic power (a BRIC country), however entirely dependent on “commodity products”

Improved living standards for some, but the biggest gap between rich and poort in Europe

Rethoric about the modernization of the economy, but in reality it is militarising before social interests

Russia today (2) - foreign policy

Loss of domination of the satellite states in Central and Eastern Europe, attempts to empower to maintain regional hegemony

Lack of international partners: Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)  - a “dead

letter regime” Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) - no Warsaw

Pact

Relations with the EU – pragmatic cooperation and competition

Careful challenge of world dominantion by the U.S., rejection of the unipolar world order

No dominant ideology

Russia today (3)

No superpower

Big ambitions, lack of economic and militairy resources, focus on foreign policy

Destabilization of neighboring states, possible consequences for whole Europe

Recommendations:the position of the Netherlands

Atlantic orientation within a strong NATO

Cooperation in energy

Economic cooperation