1. Demo-VersionRussia: Grain MarketAnalysis and Forecast to 2017January 2013Marketing ResearchBarykovsky lane 4, building 2, office 201 e-mail: info@indexbox.ru www.indexbox.ruMoscow, 119034Phone number: +7 495 988 96 06

2. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Brief OverviewThe report on the Russian grain market contains: Analysis and forecast of market dynamics; Structure of consumption by region; Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players; Analysis of exports and imports; Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market; Analysis of the state of the consuming industries; Assessment and forecast of market development; Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.Methodology: Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market; Analysis of information, received from the main market participants; An analysis of statistical information: o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat); o The Federal Customs Service (FTS); o The Ministry of Economic Development; o The Federal Tax Service; o Industry associations.The report on the grains market in Russia contains information on the followingcommodity groups: Wheat; Oats; Rice; Corn; Buckwheat; Millet; Barley; Rye.The report will allow you to: 1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on market data; 2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.The report contains 159 pages, 46 tables and 43 figures.Page 2 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 3. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Key figures presented in the report on the Russian grain market: Volumes of production, exports and imports; Indicators of market development; Consumption indicators.The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of theforecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations andunions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided withspecial conditions on the purchase of the reports.Page 3 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 4. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Why People Choose Us We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis. We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts verify all secondary information used in the report. We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a complete picture of the market of interest. Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work. We offer unique and individualized customer service: o Personal account on the website with a personal manager; o Monitoring of the status of your order online; o Pre-sale specialist advice and answers to post-purchase questions. We offer special conditions for the actualization of our research reports. If interested, find out about these conditions from our specialists now! Page 4 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 5. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Research DesignThe purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian grain market and build aforecast of the industry in the medium term.Geography of the research: RussiaMethodology1.Analysis of secondary market data:Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors sites,shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state andprivatemedia companies,marketing agencies,commercial databases,IndexBoxMarketing own research.2.Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the marketand the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on marketparticipants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sendingrequests for price lists and other presentation materials.3.Expert Interviews with Market ParticipantsTheanalysis of secondaryinformation is completedby expert interviewswithrepresentatives of market participant companies manufacturers and trading companies.Our approach to the estimationThe consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants(experts).ExpertsAs market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expertopinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regularbasis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special requestor under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensivedatabase of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, areprovided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports. Page 5 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 6. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Accuracy of forecastsThe accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historicalperiod (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts tocreate the overall average forecastIndicators1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of domestic production.3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.Page 6 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 7. Market ResearchRussia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Table of Contents1. Executive summary2. Research design3. Classification of grain4. Sown area in Russia5. Characteristics of the Russian grain market 5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian grain market in 2008 2012. Forecast for2013 - 2017 5.2. Structure of the grain market: production, exports, imports, consumption6. Characteristics of the domestic production of grain in 2008 - 2012 6.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of grain in 2008 - 2012 6.2. Structure of production of grain by types 6.3. Structure of production of grain by regions of the Russian Federation 6.4. Main manufacturers of grain and their corresponding shares7. Characteristics of grain prices 7.1. Dynamics of manufacturers prices of grain 7.2. Comparison of manufacturers prices of grain by Federal Districts of the RussianFederation 7.3. Prices of obtaining grain8. Characteristics of the imports of grain to the Russian market 8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of grain 8.2. Structure of the imports of grain to the Russian market 8.3. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported grain on the territory ofthe Russian Federation 8.4. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the grain, imported to the Russian Federation 8.5. Recipient companies of the grain, imported to the Russian Federation 8.6. Recipient regions of the imports of grain9. Characteristics of the Russian exports of grain 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the exports of grain 9.2. Structure of the exports by type of grain 9.3. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of grain 9.4. Manufacturing companies, supplying grain for exports 9.5. Sending regions of the Russian exports of grain10. Factors, influencing the development of the grain market in Russia 10.1. State of the agricultural industry 10.2. Level of well being of the population 10.3. Government regulations on the grain market11. Characteristics of the consumption of grain 11.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of grain in 2008 2012. Forecast for2013 - 2017 11.2. Volume and structure of the consumption of grain by Federal Districts of theRussian Federation in 2008 -2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017Page 7 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 8. Market ResearchRussia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version) 11.3. Balance between production and consumption of grain12. Forecast for the development of the grain market in 2013 - 2017 12.1. Preconditions for the development of the Russian economy 12.2. Scenarios for development of the world economy 12.3. Scenarios for development of the grain marketAppendix 1. Gross harvest of grain by typesAppendix 2. Government regulations in the industryAppendix 3. Profiles of the leading manufacturers LLC Efko-Kaskad OJSC Agroobedinenue Kuban CJSC Krasnoyarsk gain company LLC Agrofirm Zolotaya Niva OJSC APO Avrora LLC Agrosoiuz Yug Rusi LLC Aston - Agro LLC Agrofirm Razgulyai CJSC Rusagro AidatPage 8 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 9. Market ResearchRussia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)List of tablesTable 1. Average chemical composition of the main types of grain (in grams / 100 grams ofgrain)Table 2. Sown areas of grains by types in 2006 - 2012, in thousands of hectaresTable 3. Volume and dynamics of the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017,in thousands of tons (base scenario)Table 4. Gross harvest of grain in Russia in 2006 - 2012 by types, in thousands of tonsTable 5. Leads on the grain market in 2012 and their volumes of production in value termsTable 6. Average manufacturers prices of grain in the Russian Federation in January 2008 November 2012Table 7. Sales price of grain in the period 1 November - 15 December 2012Table 8. Price of obtaining grain in the period 1 November - 15 December 2012, in RUR per1 kgTable 9. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands of tonsTable 10. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions of USDTable 11. Structure of the imports of grain to the Russian market in January - July 2012Table 12. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012,in thousands of tonsTable 13. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012,in millions of USDTable 14. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July2012, in thousands of tonsTable 15. Volume of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July2012, in millions of USDTable 16. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, inthousands of tonsTable 17. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, inmillions of USDTable 18. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, inthousands of tonsTable 19. Volume of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, inmillions of USDTable 20. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands oftonsTable 21. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions ofUSDTable 22. Structure of the exports of grain by types in January - July 2012Table 23. Volume of the exports of grain by recipient countries in January - July 2012, inthousands of tonsTable 24. Volume of the exports of grain by recipient countries in January - July 2012, inmillions of USDTable 25. Volume of the exports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July2012, in thousands of tonsPage 9 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 10. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Table 26. Volume of the exports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July2011, in millions of USDTable 27. Volume of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, inthousands of tonsTable 28. Volume of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, inmillions of USDTable 29. Real disposable monetary income in the Russian Federation in January 2008 -February 2012Table 30. Dynamics of the disposable income of households (per 100 people), in thousandsof RUR in the Russian Federation in 2005 - 2010Table 31. Average monetary income per capita in the Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011, inRUR per monthTable 32. Deviation from the average monetary income per capita by Federal Districts fromthe average for Russia in 2005 - 2010Table 33. Differentiation of income in 2005 - 2011Table 34. Structure of the disposable income of households of different social economiccategories in 2010, in %, to the totalTable 35. Distribution of the population in Russia by level of income in 2007 - 2010, in %, tothe totalTable 36. Consumption of grain in 2008 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands oftonsTable 37. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand on the grain market in 2013- 2017, in thousands of tonsTable 38. Gross harvest of millet in Russia by regionsTable 39. Gross harvest of oats in Russia by regionsTable 40. Gross harvest of buchwheat in Russia by regionsTable 41. Gross harvest of rice in Russia by regionsTable 42. Gross harvest of wheat in Russia by regionsTable 43. Gross harvest of rye in Russia by regionsTable 44. Gross harvest of barley in Russia by regionsTable 45. Passport of the Government program for development of agricultureTable 46. Passport of the sub-program Development of the sub-industries crop production,processing and sales of different types of crops" Page 10 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012 www.indexbox.ru 11. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)List of FiguresFig. 1. Sown areas of grains in 2006 - 2012, in thousands of hectaresFig. 2. Structure of sown areas by types of grains in 2012, in hectaresFig. 3. Volume of supply on the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for 2013 - 2017,in thousands of tons (base scenario)Fig. 4. Volume of supply on the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for 2013 - 2017,in billions of RUR (base scenario, forecast in manufacturers prices as of November 2012)Fig. 5. Dynamics and structure of the grain market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017,in thousands of tons (base scenario)Fig. 6. Structure of the grain market by origin in physical terms in 2011 - 2012Fig. 7. Gross harvest of grain in Russia in 2006 - 2012, in thousands of tonsFig. 8. Structure of the gross harvest of grain by types in physical terms in 2012Fig. 9. Index of the average manufacturers prices of grain in the Russian Federation in2011Fig. 10. Index of the average manufacturers prices of grain in the Russian Federation inJanuary November 2012Fig. 11. Dynamics of the average manufacturers prices of grain in the Russian Federation inJanuary 2011 November 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of the previousyearFig. 12. Comparison of the average manufacturers prices of grain by Federal Districts inNovember 2012Fig. 13. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands of tonsFig. 14. Dynamics of the imports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions of USDFig. 15. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012,in physical termsFig. 16. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012in value termsFig. 17. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July2012, in physical termsFig. 18. Structure of the imports of grain by manufacturing companies in January - July2012, in value termsFig. 19. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, inphysical termsFig. 20. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient companies in January - July 2012, invalue termsFig. 21. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, inphysical termsFig. 22. Structure of the imports of grain by recipient regions in January - July 2012, invalue termsFig. 23. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in thousands oftonsFig. 24. Dynamics of the Russian exports of grain in January - July 2012, in millions of USDFig. 25. Structure of the exports of grain by manufacturing countries in January - July 2012,Page 11 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 12. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)in physical termsFig. 26. Structure of the exports of grain by recipient countries in January - July 2012, invalue termsFig. 27. Structure of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, inphysical termsFig. 28. Structure of the exports of grain by sending regions in January - July 2012, in valuetermsFig. 29. Quarterly dynamics of the real disposable income of the population in the RussianFederation, in %, to the corresponding period of the previous year ofFig. 30. Dynamics of the nominal and real income of the population of the RussianFederation in 2005 - 2011Fig. 31. Average deviation from the per capita income by Federal Districts of the RussianFederation from the Russian average in 2005 - 2010Fig. 32. Distribution of the total volume of monetary income of the population in 2011 bygroupsFig. 33. Structure of the population of the Russian Federation by level of income in 2010, in%, to the totalFig. 34. Dynamics of consumption of grain in the Russian Federation in 2008 2017F, inthousands of tons (base scenario)Fig. 35. Dynamics of consumption of grain in the Russian Federation in 2008 - 2017F, inbillions of RUR (base scenario, forecast in manufacturers prices as of November 2012)Fig. 36. Consumption of grain by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2008 - 2012and forecast until 2017 in physical termsFig. 37. Forecast of the balance between supply and demand on the grain market in Russiain 2008 - 2017, in thousands of tonsFig. 38. Base scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, inthousands of tonsFig. 39. Base scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, in billions ofRUR (forecast in manufacturers prices as of November 2012)Fig. 40. Conservative scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, inthousands of tonsFig. 41. Conservative scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, inbillions of RUR (forecast in manufacturers prices as of November 2012)Fig. 42. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, inthousands of tonsFig. 43. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the grain market in 2011 - 2017, inbillions of RUR (forecast in manufacturers prices as of November 2012)Page 12 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 13. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Executive Summary Key figures andconclusionsabout the marketThe volume of supply on the Russian grain market in 2012 was almost tons, which is %higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of importedproducts on the grain market was %.The volume of production of grain in 2012 was tons, which is % higher than the volumeof production in 2011.The largest share (%) of all grain manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012 belongsto the Federal District.In 2012, the import volume of grain in Russia amounted to tons in physical terms and to thousand USD in value terms.Page 13 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 14. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)5. Characteristics of the Russian grainmarket...5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian grain market in2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 2017The volume of supply on the Russian grain market in 2012 was almost tons, which is %higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of importedproducts on the grain market was % of the total market.Source: Data (Rosstat, FTS), Analysis (IndexBox)Fig. 1. Volume of the supply of grain in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for 2013 -2017, in thousands of tons and percentagePage 14 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 15. Market ResearchRussia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)5.2. Structure of the grain market in Russia: production, exports,imports, consumptionThe volume of imports of grain in 2012 was about tons, which was % of the totalmarket volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented below. Table 1. Volume and dynamics of the grain market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in tons 200920102011F 20122013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017FVolume of In unitsproductionIn %, to %%%%%%%% thepreviousyearVolume of In unitsexportsIn %, to %%%%%%%% thepreviousyearVolume of In unitsimportsIn %, to %%%%%%%% thepreviousyearVolume of In unitstotal supplyIn %, to %%%%%%%% thepreviousyear Source: Data (Rosstat, FTS, Expert opinion), Analysis (IndexBox)Page 15 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012 www.indexbox.ru 16. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)6. Characteristics of the domesticproduction of grain in Russia in 2007 -2012Characteristics of domestic production - Volume and dynamics by type of product - Production capacities - Structure of production - Main producers and their market shares6.1 Volume and dynamics of grain production in 2007 - 2012In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previousyear.Source: Data (Rosstat), Analysis (IndexBox)Fig. 6 Grain production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tonsPage 16 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 17. Market ResearchRussia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)6.5 The main manufacturers of grain and their correspondingmarket sharesTable 4. Manufacturers of grain and their corresponding market shares in 2011ProductionMarketManufacturerRegionof grain, insharetons OTHERS TOTAL Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (IndexBox)Page 17 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 18. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)8. Characteristics of the imports ofgrain into the Russian market 8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of grainThe volume of imports of grain in 2011 was tons. The largest amount of grain wasimported in , when were imported tons. Table 8. Volume and dynamics of the imports of grain in 2012, in thousandsof liters of 100% alcoholMonth Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous monthJanuary February%March %April %May %June%July%August%September %October %November%December%Total Source: Data (FTS), Analysis (IndexBox) Page 18 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 19. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version) Source: Data (FTS), Analysis (IndexBox)Fig. 30. Dynamics of the imports of grain in Russia in 2012, in thousands of liters of 100% alcohol and in % Page 19 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 20. Market Research Russia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)About IndexBox"IndexBox" is one of the leading companies in the sphere of marketing consulting. We carryout pieces of marketing research and consult on questions about strategic marketing.The "IndexBox" team has been working together for more than 7 years.The average experience of "IndexBox" specialists in the marketing sphere is 10 years.IndexBox" employs 15 specialists in its research analytical department.The gathering of the researched information is controlled by 8 employees, all with vast experience in field work. And who oversee more than 150 experienced interviewers.Over 10 years, we have completed more than sixteen hundred projects, most of which are focused on the consumer and industrial markets. The geography of the research includes not only the territory of Russia, but also foreign markets.In total, more than 80,000 respondents have taken part in our research studies.Not only does "IndexBox" have a wide partner network in the regions of the Russian Federation, the CIS, and the Baltic countries, but also has countless foreign partners, including the largest research companies in the USA, the UK, France, India, and China.Our clients are big Russian and foreign companies:Page 20 from 21 IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru 21. Market ResearchRussia: Grain Market. January 2013 (Demo-version)Marketing researchOur specialization - the study of consumer and industrial markets, segments of B2C andB2B. Among the methods used: desk research, consumer surveys, expert surveys,competitive analysis, sales audit, a wide range of qualitative market research products andservices. Our competitive advantage is the formation of special research techniques to thetasks of each project. 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Generally, programs include product, pricing, marketing and communicationstrategy. Projects in the field of strategic marketing are relevant to large enterprises,financial and investment companies that are planning to expand its interests as well assmall companies that are thinking about business development.DevelopmentConsulting in development - is to develop the best options for use of the area. To do this,our marketing agency, conducts research real estate market, analyzes the possibleconstruction, and estimates the market feasibility and economic benefits of investing in realestate. Marketing agency IndexBox offers a range of professional services for the study ofthe real estate market and the development of individual marketing concept of the facility.Page 21 from 21IndexBox Marketing 2012www.indexbox.ru