Russia Beer Market

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Russia: Beer Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

June 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

from 31 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru

Market Research Russia: Beer Market. June 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian beer market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;

Analysis of raw materials’ base;

Analysis of sales and consumer preferences;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report on the Russian beer market contains information on the following

commodity groups:

Lager beer;

Semi-dark beer;

Dark beer;

Specialty beer;

Unfiltered beer;

Non-alcoholic beer.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian beer market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.




The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Why People Choose Us

• We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have

completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

• We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts

verify all secondary information used in the report.

• We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of

the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

complete picture of the market of interest.

• Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work.

• We offer unique and individualized customer service:

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find out about these conditions from our specialists now!




Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian beer market and build a

forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents 1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Classification of beer

4. Technology of beer production

5. Characteristics of raw materials

5.1. Malt

6. Characteristics of the Russian market of beer in 2008-2011. Forecast for 2012-

2017

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian market of beer in 2008-2011. Forecast for

2012-2017

6.2. Structure of the market of beer: production, exports, imports, consumption

7. Characteristics of domestic production of beer in 2008- June 2012

7.1. Volume and dynamics of production of light beer in 2007 - June 2012

7.2. Volume and dynamics of production of semi-dark beer in 2007 - June 2012

7.3. Volume and dynamics of production of dark beer in 2007 - June 2012

7.4. Volume and dynamics of production of special beer in 2007 - June 2012

7.5. Volume and dynamics of production of unfiltered beer in 2007 - June 2012

7.6. Volume and dynamics of production of non-alcoholic beer in 2007 - June 2012

7.7. Structure of production of beer by regions of the Russian Federation

7.8 . Production capacities of enterprises and coefficient of loading

7.9 . Level of production concentration and competition characteristics in the market

7.10. Main manufacturers of beer and their corresponding market shares

7.10.1. OJSC «Brewing company «Baltika»

7.10.2. LLC «United breweries Heyneken»

7.10.3. Company «Ochakovo»

7.10.4. Company "Bravo International"

7.10.5. Brewery named after Stepan Razin

7.10.6. Brewery "Bavaria"

7.10.7. Open Joint Stock Company "Krasniy Vostok"

7.10.8. JSC "Moscow-Efes Brewery"

7.10.9. LLC «Kaluga Brewing Company"

7.11. Investment projects in the industry

8. Characteristics of prices of beer

8.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of beer in 2007-June 2012

8.2. Comparison of producer prices by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

8.3. Dynamics of retail prices of beer in 2009-June 2012

9 . Characteristics of imports of beer into the Russian market

9.1 . Volume and dynamics of imports of beer

9.2 . Manufacturing countries that supply beer on the territory of the Russian

Federation

9.3 . Foreign manufacturing companies of beer imported to the Russian Federation




9.4 . Russian companies-recipients of imports of beer

9.5 . Structure of imports deliveries of beer by regions of the Russian Federation

10 . Characteristics of the Russian exports of beer

10.1 . Volume and dynamics of exports of beer

10.2 . Recipient countries of the Russian exports of beer

10.3 . Manufacturing companies delivering beer for exports

10.4 . Sending regions of the Russian exports of beer

11 . Factors influencing on the development of the market of beer

11.1 . Population welfare

12 . Characteristics of consumption of beer

12.1 . Dynamics and volume of consumption of beer in 2008-2011. Forecast for 2012-

2017

12.2 . Volume and structure of consumption of beer by Federal Districts

12.3 . Balance of production and beer consumption in 2008-2011

13 . Forecast of development of the market of beer for 2012-2017

13.1 . Assessment of potential volume of supply of beer for 2011-2017

13.2 . Assessment of development of the market of beer if Russia's accession to the

World Trade Organization

Appendix 1. Financial and economic performance of the branch

• Revenue (net) from production, in 2006-2010, in billions of RUR

• Business and management expenses in 2006-2010, in billions of RUR

• Product cost in 2006-2010, in billions of RUR

• Gross profit from production sale in 2006-2010, in billions of RUR

• Investments into the branch in 2006-2010, in thousands of RUR

• The average number of workers occupied in the branch in 2006-2010

Appendix 2. Profiles of the leading producers

• Contacts of the enterprises

• Registration data of the enterprises

• Management of the enterprises

• Affiliated organizations

• Main shareholders

• Balance sheet of the enterprises

• Profit and loss report of the enterprises

• Main financial performance of activity




Data, presented in tables

• Dynamics of the market of beer in 2007-2017

• Production of beer in 2007 - June 2012, in thousands of deciliters

• Volume of production of beer by types in January - June 2012, in thousands of

deciliters

• Production of beer by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2005 - June

2012, in thousands of deciliters

• Use of average annual power on production beer in 2007-2011 by regions of the

Russian Federation, in percentage

• Average manufacturers’ prices of beer in the Russian Federation in January 2007 -

June 2012

• Volume of imports of beer by manufacturing countries in 2011, in thousands of

deciliters

• Volume of imports of beer by manufacturing companies in 2011, in thousands of

deciliters

• Volume of imports of beer in the Russian Federation by importing companies in


• Volume of imports of beer by regions of the Russian Federation in 2011, in

thousands of deciliters

• Volume of the Russian exports of beer by recipient countries in 2011, in thousands

of deciliters

• Volume of the Russian exports of beer by manufacturing companies in 2011, in


• Volume of the Russian exports of beer by sending regions in 2011, in thousands of

deciliters

• Dynamics of located resources of households (100 people), in thousands of RUR,

the Russian Federation, all population of the Russian Federation in 2000 - 2011

• Differentiation of income of the population in 2005-2011

• Deviations of income of the population by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

from average Russian in 2004-2011

• Beer consumption in 2011, in thousands of deciliters

• Average manufacturers’ and importers' prices of beer in the Russian Federation in

June 2012




Data presented in figures

• Volume of supply on the market beer in 2007-2017

• Production of beer in 2009 - June 2012, in thousands of deciliters

• Production of beer in January 2008 - June 2012, in percentage, to the analogical

period of the previous year

• Production of beer in 2005-2011, in thousands of deciliters

• Structure of production of beer in January - June2012 by types, in thousands of

deciliters

• Structure of production of beer by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in

January - June, 2012

• Structure of production of beer by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in

2005-2011

• Capacities for production of beer by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in


• Level of use of average annual capacity on production of beer in 2000-2011, in

percentage

• Commissioning of capacities for production of beer in the Russian Federation in

2000-2011, in thousands of deciliters

• Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of beer in the Russian Federation in

January - June 2012

• Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of beer in the Russian Federation in

January - June 2012

• Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of beer in the Russian Federation in

January 2009 - June 2012, deviation in %, to the analogical period of the previous year

• Comparison of the average manufacturers’ prices of beer by Federal Districts of the

Russian Federation, in June 2012

• Dynamics of imports of beer in the Russian Federation in 2011, in thousands of

deciliters

• Structure of imports of beer in the Russian Federation by manufacturing countries in

2010

• Structure of imports of beer in the Russian Federation by manufacturing companies

in 2011

• Structure of imports of beer in the Russian Federation by importing companies

• Structure of imports of beer by regions of the Russian Federation in 2011

• Dynamics of the Russian exports of beer in 2011, in thousands of deciliters

• Structure of the Russian exports of beer by recipient countries in 2011

• Structure of the Russian exports of beer by manufacturing companies in 2011

• Structure of the Russian exports of beer by sending regions in 2011

• Dynamics of consumption of beer in the Russian Federation in 2009-2017, in


• Distribution of the total amount of monetary income of the population in 2011 by

groups




• Average deviation of the average per capita income in Federal Districts from the

average across Russia during 2000-2011

• Shares of volume of free funds by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation relative

to the national avaerage

• Dynamics of consumption of beer in the Russian Federation in 2007-2017, in


• Beer consumption in the countries of Europe in 2011, in liters/person

• Dynamics of consumption of beer in Russia during 2011

• Consumption of beer by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2011

• Structure of sales of beer in physical terms in 2011, in thousands of deciliters

• Structure of sales of beer in value terms in 2011, in RUR

• Merchandising chain




Executive Summary*

…

The volume of supply on the Russian beer market in 2012 was almost … deciliters, which is

…% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of

imported products on the beer market was …%.

The volume of production of beer in 2012 was … deciliters, which is …% higher than the

volume of production in 2011.

The largest share (…%) of all beer manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012 belongs

to the … Federal District.

In 2012, the import volume of beer in Russia amounted to … deciliters in physical terms and

to … thousand USD in value terms.

In 2012, the volume of the Russian exports of beer was … deciliters, which was equal to …

thousand USD in value terms.

…

*The information provided from this point on in this demo version is for illustrative purposes

only, so that you can get a general overview of how our reports look like. If you need more

information, you can contact us at: [email protected].

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market

mailto:[email protected]




6. Characteristics of the Russian beer

market

...

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian beer market in

2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

The volume of supply on the Russian beer market in 2012 was almost … deciliters, which is

…% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of

imported products on the beer market was …% of the total market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the beer market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for

2013 -2017, in thousands of deciliters (base scenario)




6.2. Structure of the beer market in Russia: production, exports,

imports, consumption

The volume of imports of beer in 2012 was about … deciliters, which was …% of the total

market volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented below.

Table 6. Volume and dynamics of the beer market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast

until 2017, in thousands of deciliters

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of

production In units

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of exports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 6. Volume and dynamics of the beer market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast

until 2017, in thousands of deciliters

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Production Consumption

Exports Imports




7. Characteristics of the domestic

production of beer in Russia in 2007 -

2012

…

7.1 Volume and dynamics of beer production in 2007 - 2012

In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous

year.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 8 Beer production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of deciliters

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares




Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 9 Beer production in 2011 - 2012, in thousands of deciliters and in %, to the

previous year




7.6 The main manufacturers of beer and their corresponding

market shares

The main manufacturers of beer in Russia in 2011 were Company A, Company B, and

Company C. They produced …, …, and … deciliters, respectively. They were followed by

Company D (… deciliters, equal to …% of the total production) and Company E (… deciliters

- …%).

Table 16. Characteristics of the largest manufacturers of pig iron in Russia in 2010

- 2011, in thousands of deciliters

Manufacturer Region

Production

of beer, in

deciliters

Market

share

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

…




8. Characteristics of beer prices 8.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of beer

Manufacturers’ prices of beer have been fluctuating a lot in the last 5 years – from … RUR/ton in 2007, through … RUR/ton in 2009 to …

RUR/ton in December 2012. In 2012, the prices were lower in …, when they were equal to … RUR/ton. They reached their highest value

in …, when they were … RUR/ton, which was …% more, compared to the analogical period of the previous year.

Table 20. Average manufacturers’ prices1 of beer in Russia in January 2007 – November 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical period of the

previous year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical

period of the previous

year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

January … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

February … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

March … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

April … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

May … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

June … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

July … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

August … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

September … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

October … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

November … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

December … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”) 1 Manufacturers’ prices – subject to registration, as a rule, are the actual prices of produced and shipped in the current month production for the domestic market (excluding value added tax, excise duty and other taxes not included in the cost).




9. Characteristics of the imports of

beer to the Russian market 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian imports of beer

…

The volume of Russian imports of beer in 2011 was … deciliters. The largest amount of beer

was imported in …, when were imported … deciliters.

Table 22. Dynamics of the imports of beer in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in deciliters

Month Quantity, in thousands of deciliters In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)





Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of beer in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in deciliters

9.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported

beer on the territory of the Russian Federation

Country A was the leader in terms of imports of beer (in physical terms) in 2011, with a

share of …% of the total. The country imported … deciliters of beer in 2011. The second

place was taken by Country B, which in 2011 imported … deciliters of beer (a share of …%,

respectively). In the third place was Country C with a share of …%.





Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of beer in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms

Table 24. Volume of the imports of beer in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011, in deciliters

Country of origin Net weight, in deciliters Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


9.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the beer, imported to

the Russian Federation

Company A was the leader in terms of imports of beer (in physical terms) in 2011, with a

share of …% of the total. The company imported … deciliters of beer in 2011. The second

place was taken by Company B, which in 2011 imported … deciliters of beer (a share of …%,

respectively). In the third place was Company C with a share of …%.

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS





Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of beer in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms

Table 26. Volume of the imports of beer in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011, in deciliters

Manufacturing company Net weight, in deciliters Share, in %

Company A … …%

Company B … …%

Company C … …%

Company D … …%

Company E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Company A

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company E

OTHERS




10. Characteristics of the Russian

exports of beer 10.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of beer

…

The volume of Russian exports of beer in 2011 was … deciliters. The largest amount of beer

was exported in …, when were exported … deciliters.

Table 31. Dynamics of the exports of beer in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in deciliters

Month Quantity, in thousands of deciliters In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …






Fig. 27. Dynamics of the exports of beer in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in deciliters

10.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of beer

In 2011, the main recipient country of the Russian exports of beer was Country A. Its share

in physical terms was …%. It was then followed by Country B (…%) and Country C (…%).

To Country D and Country E were exported …% and …%, respectively. The combined share

of the other countries is …%.





Fig. 29. Structure of the Russian exports of beer by recipient countries in 2011 in

physical terms

Table 33. Volume of the Russian exports of beer by recipient countries in 2011, in

deciliters

Recipient country Net weight, in deciliters Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


…

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS




12. Characteristics of consumption

of beer 12.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of beer in 2008 -

2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017

The volume of consumption of beer in 2012 was … deciliters, which was …% more,

compared to 2011. In 2011 was noted the largest drop in the consumption of beer in recent

years - a decline of …% to … thousand deciliters. Another decline in recent years was

observed in 2009, when the growth rate was …%, compared to 2008. At the end of 2012,

the consumption of beer almost reached the level in 2010, but the growth is not yet

possible to reach the pre-crisis levels of 2007 - 2008.

According to forecasts, the favorable development of the consuming industries can help

consumption of beer increase in the next few years with rates of …-…% annually. Thus, by

2017, the consumption can reach … million deciliters. The demand for beer in the country

will be met, as before, by the Russian manufacturers, who account for over …% of the

market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 40. Dynamics of consumption of beer in the Russian Federation in 2008 –

2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of deciliters




12.2. Structure of consumption of beer by industries

Currently, the largest shares in the consumption of beer are taken by Industry A (…%) and

Industry B (…%). Industry C accounts for about … of the market, while Industry D

consumes about …% of the beer in Russia.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 42. Structure of consumption of beer by industries in 2012

35%

37%

10%

8%

10% Industry A Industry B

Industry C Industry D

Others




12.3. Balance between production and consumption of beer

In the forecasted balance between production and consumption are used estimates of the

consumption of beer and projections for increase in production.

Throughout the forecast horizon, 2013 – 2017, there is a positive balance, calculated as the

difference between production and consumption. The surplus on the market, as before, will

be exported, mainly to the countries of the Customs Union, where most purchases are in

made in Kazakhstan.

Table 1. Balance between production and consumption on the beer

market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of

deciliters

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production … … … … … … … … … …

Consumption … … … … … … … … … …

Balance

(Production-

Consumption)

… … … … … … … … … …

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 47. Balance between production and consumption on the beer market in

Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of deciliters

20082009

20102011

20122013F

2014F2015F

2016F2017F

Consumption

Production




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Russia Beer Market

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