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65

..100

..4,000+

...

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,

...

66

2013

...

3.3

.

.

.

.

Indicator Unit 2012(Est)

Projections2013 2014 2015

Real Sector

Real GDP Growth % 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.3

GDP Deflator % 8.5 7.0 6.0 5.0

Total Investment % of GDP 30.3 31.0 32.0 32.5

External Sector

Trade Balance % of GDP -15.1 -14.4 -13.3 -12.7

Current Account Balance % of GDP -5.5 -4.7 -3.3 -2.0

Overall Balance US$ mn 100 510 795 1,925

Fiscal Sector

Current Account Balance % of GDP -0.8 -0.1 0.8 1.4

Overall Budget Deficit % of GDP -6.2 -5.8 -5.2 -4.7

Government Debt % of GDP 81 78 75 71

Monetary Sector

Broad Money Growth (M2b) % 16.2 15.0 15.0 14.0

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.

47

,

.

67

5

...

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Percent

Year-on-Year Headline and Core Inflation

Headline Inflat ion (y-o-y) Core Inf lation (y-o-y)

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68

...

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Percent

Unemployment Rate - World

France

Germany

Greece

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Portugal

Spain

United Kingdom

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990

2000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

1H2012

Percent

Unemployment Rate

7.58.0

8.3 8.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016

Percent

Expected Real GDP Growth

2013-2016

,

.

,

.

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...

.

,

.

69

(NOP)

2013 02

.

2013 02

.

2013

.

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70

,

...

.

,

.

.

.

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...

,

,

.

.

.

71

...

.

.

.

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...

.

.

. .

.

72

.

.

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,

...

, .

.

.

.

.

.

: , , ,

, ,

,

.

.

73

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...

.

74

.-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012(E)

2013(P)

2014(P)

2015(P)

Percent

External Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

Bangladesh

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

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,

...

.

.

75

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Target)

US$bn

Expectations for the Stock Market

Stock Market Capitalisation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Target)

US$bn

Expectations for the Corporate Debt SecuritiesMarket

Size of Corporate Debt Securities Market

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-

...

.

.

.

76

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Asa%o

fGDP

Domestic Savings-Investment Gap

Investment Domestic Savings Savings-Investment Gap

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,2013

... ,

:- 3 .. 10

- 3 .. 50

-

- .. 5

.

, ,

10 .. 250 DFCC .

.

77

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2013

...

.

.

78

2013 02

.

2013 02 .

2013 02 .

.

.

.

,

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...

.

79

7.0%

9.9%8.0%

6.9% 6.2% 5.8% 5.2%

0

3

5

8

10

2006-08

Average

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013P 2014P

(%) Fiscal deficit (as a % of GDP)

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Percent

General Government Fiscal Balance to GDP Ratio inSelected Economies

2006

2012

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...

80

2011 2012()

*

2013 2014 2015

...(%) 78.5 81 78 75 71

() 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0

(%) 25 24 23 22 21

(%) 44 47 42 40 38

8178 75

7168 65

0

20

40

60

80

100

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Projection of Outstanding Public Debt

(as a % of GDP)

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2013

...

.

.

.

.

81

.

.

( )

.

( ) .

.

.

,

.

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,

...

,

.

, .

82

,

.

.

,

:

,

30

27

43

12

3157

Share of Key Sectors in GDP and

Labour Force

Agriculture Industry Services

Share of

Labour Force

Share of GDP

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...

.

.

.

.

.

.

83

.

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...

.

.

,

.

. .

.

-

/

.- /

-

84

201301

9

.

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25%

...

.

85

.

2014 100

.

10 .

:

.

/ .

/ .

, .

.

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.

2013

.

.

.

.

:,,

,

.

86

...

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Percent

Reservoir Water Level

2010

2011

2012

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...

,

.

,

.

.

87

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...

88

- -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

- , -, ,

-

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2013

...

89

:

:

2012 7.50%

9.50%

8.00%

Dec-11 Dec-12

(Est)

Dec-13

(Proj)

% 19.1 16.2 15.0

% 21.5 10.2* 14.5

% 34.5 18.5 18.5

*

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...

2016 ..4,000 " "

.

90

..4,000

10 ...

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

t-10

t-9

t-8

t-7

t-6

t-5

t-4

t-3

t-2

t-1 t

t+1

t+2

t+3

t+4

t+5

t+6

t+7

t+8

t+9

t+10

U

S$percapita

Barbados BrazilChile Costa RicaDominica GabonGreece Iran, Islamic Rep.Lebanon MalaysiaMexico St. LuciaSt. Vincent & Grenad. Trinidad & TobagoUruguay Venezuela, RB

.

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5+1

...

91

...

7/30/2019 road map 02

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...

92

-

- /

-

-

-

.. 15.2

,

.. 1.9

.. 0.2

.. 5.6

.. 1.2

.. 1.0

.. 9.8

, .. 3.5

/

.. 1.0

.. 10.0

() .. 5.0

.. 1.0

:

: .. 1.8

: .. 0.5

2016

21

22

23

24

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011

2012(E)

2013(Proj)

2014(Proj)

2015(Proj)

2016(Proj)

%o

fGDP

US$bn

Projected Receipts from the Export of Goods and

Services

Service Receipts (US$ bn)

Merchandise Exports (US$ bn)

Total Receipts from the Export of Goods and Services (% of GDP)

100

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..100

2016...

...

93

: 2%

: 3%

.50

: 5%

: 100%

: ... 6%

: ... 0.5%

.. 70

.. 10

10

45.0

30.7

12.7

10

19.1

28.7

29.7 3

2

35.9

40.6

57.6

58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1977 2009 2016 (Proj)

Percent

Sectoral Share of GDP - Actual and Projected

Agriculture Industry Services

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,2016..100

....

94

.

.

.

.

.

.

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95

(.)

(.)

31.12.2011 3.0 2.0

31.12.2013 4.0 2.5

31.12.2015 5.0 3.0

(.)

(.)

2010 3.0 2.0

2012 4.0 2.5

2014 5.0 3.0

...

.

,

.

.

III

.

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.

21...

1.

2.

3.

4. ,

,

5.

6. 7.

96

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21...

8.

9.

10. ,

11. ,

12. , , ,

,

13. ,

14.

97

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"21"...

15.

16. 2013

17. ,

18. ,

19. ,

20. 2013

,

21.

98

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...

.

- .-

.

-

.

-

- II ,

.

-

- ,

99

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...

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

. .

100

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...

101

.

,

,

.

.

, 2013

10/-

.

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2013...

102

.

/

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/

...

2013

2013 ,

17

.

103

(

)

(

)

7,000 53,700

9,900 117,300

/

/

552 21,670

32 1,280

38 640

12 600

634 24,190

2013

.

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...

:

-

.

- , , , ,

.

-

.

104

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...

.

.

.

2013

.

.

CPSS .

105

Expectations for the Payments

System in a US$ 100 bn

Economy

Average No. of

RTGS Transactions

per day (High

value payments)

1,500

Average No. of

Retail Paymentsper day

500,000

RTGS/SSSS

System

Availability

99.9%

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106

...

...

.

,

.

, (Trust Certificates)

.

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107

...

50

.

- 2.3

80% .

-

.

(Image Scanning) .

2014

.

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PhD

+Professional

3

PhD

6

Masters

129

Masters

+Professional

40

First Degree

325

First Degree+Professional

104

Professional

49

108

...

.

,

1,300 .

.

6,000

. 6,100

.

.. 6,800

1,100

300

65,000

23

Classification of

Professional Qualifications

Qualification Total

CA, CIMA, ACCA, CMA 133

Law 27

IBSL 20

BCS 11

CFA 2AAT 3

""

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...

109

.

.

Unit 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 (Prov/Est)

GDP US$ mn 4,025 8,033 16,596 49,565 59,253

GDP Per Capita US$ 273 494 899 2,400 2,922

GDP Growth % 5.8 6.2 6.0 8.0 6.5

Unemployment Rate % 17.9 15.9 7.6 4.9 3.9

GDP Deflator % 18.1 20.0 6.7 7.3 8.5

Exports US$ mn 1,065 1,984 5,522 8,626 9,751

Imports US$ mn 2,051 2,686 7,320 13,451 18,679

Workers Remittances US$ mn 152 401 1,160 4,116 6,007

Current Account Balance % of GDP -16.4 -4.7 -6.4 -2.2 -5.5

Tourist Arrivals 000 317 298 400 654 1,003

Foreign Direct Investment US$ mn 42.9 41.6 175 516 1,000

Overall Balance US$ mn -191.9 118.7 -521.9 921.0 100.0

Gross official Reserves US$ mn 245.5 435.0 905.5 6,610.2 6,845.0

Gross official Reserves Months of Imports 1.4 1.9 1.5 5.9 4.4

Total External Debt % of GDP 41.4 72.0 54.5 43.3 43.7

End Year Exchange Rate Rs/US$ 18.00 40.24 80.06 110.95 127.16

Budget Deficit % of GDP 19.2 7.8 9.5 8.0 6.2

Government Debt % of GDP 77.2 96.6 96.9 81.9 81

Interest Rate (91-day T-Bill) % per annum 13.00 17.41 17.77 7.24 10.0

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,

...

2012

- ,

.

- .

,

.

110

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2012

2011

2008 2

009 20

10

111

2007

Growth withStability

6

...

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To Deliver Prosperity to

...