The social support to the Catalan State

February 2012

2

Between 2007-2012, different organizations have performed surveys on the social support to the Catalan State

Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya

Public Organisations

Newspapers

Radios and TV

3

Most of them asked directly about the eventual vote in a referendum for the independence of Catalonia.

Public organisations

Newspapers

Radios and TV

Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya

4

The survey considers different answers : “Yes”, “No”, “Abstain”, “Blank”, “Don’t know”, “no answer” and “Other”

Interviewer/OrganizerRelease

dateYES(%)

NO (%)

Abstain (%)

Blank(%)

Don’t Know(%)

No answer (%)

Other(%)

Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials nov-11 41,4 22,9 25,5 1,0 8,3 0,9 -

Centre d'Estudis d'Opiniójun-11 42,9 28,2 23,3 0,0 4,4 0,8 0,5

oct-11 45,4 24,7 23,8 0,0 4,6 1,0 0,6

Universitat Oberta de Catalunya

feb-08 36,5 22,1 27,1 0,0 11,7 0,0 0,0

feb-09 50,3 17,8 24,6 0,0 5,8 1,4 0,0

feb-10 50,4 17,8 24,6 0,0 5,8 1,4 0,0

Baròmetre de la Comunicació i la Cultura abr-11 34,2 30,0 9,6 3,2 23,0 -

Ara (Newspaper)nov-10 38,5 42,8 7,2 0,0 8,8 2,8

sep-11 42,0 37,7 7,7 0,0 10,7 1,8

El Periódico (Newspaper)

abr-07 44,9 40,0 15,1

oct-07 33,9 43,9 9,8 12,5 -

dic-09 39,0 40,6 7,0 2,0 11,4 -

jun-10 48,1 35,3 6,1 2,6 7,9 -

ene-12 53,6 32,0 14,4

La Vanguardia (Newspaper)

nov-09 35,0 46,0 19,0 -

mar-10 36,0 44,0 20,0 -

may-10 37,0 41,0 22,0 -

jul-10 47,0 36,0 7,0 3,0 5,0 -

sep-10 40,0 45,0 7,0 3,0 5,0 -

TV3 (TV) mar-10 39,3 47,8 - - 11,0 1,8 -

RAC 1 (Radio) sep-10 48,8 41,4 - - 9,7 - -

SER (Radio) nov-10 42,3 52,8 - - 2,8 2,1 -

Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER

5

Results show different figures depending on how the answers (besides YES and NO) are put together.

Results by chronological order (%)

4534 37

5035 39

5039 36 37

48 4740

4939 42

3443 42 45 41

54

40

4422

18 46 41 1848

44 41

35 3645

41

43

53

3028

3825

23

32

1522

3932

19 2032

1320 22 17 15 15 10

195

3629

2030 36

14

“Yes”

“No”

Abstain, blank, don’t know, no answer, other

Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER

6

But in a referendum, results are only YES or NO, so

Results by chronological order(%)

5344

6274

43 49

74

45 45 4758 57

4754

47 4453

6053

65 64 63

4756

3826

57 51

26

55 55 5342 43

5346

53 5647

4047

35 36 37

Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER

Yes

No

7

The support to the Catalan Satate is increasing and is already widely for the Catalan State

Conclusions

All survey show that “YES” is increasing

In average, “YES” is increasing by 6% every year

If this trend remains, “YES” would be suppoorted by 70% of the people by 2013.

All surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES greater than 50%

Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES greater than 60%

1

2

3

4

5

8

All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show that “YES” is increasing (1/2)

Source: Viquipèdia, CEO, UOC, Ara

Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence of Catalonia

June 2011 October 2011

60% 65%

40% 35%

Yes

No

November 2010

September 2011

47% 53%

53% 47%

Yes

No

February 2008

February 2009

February 2010

62%74% 74%

38%26% 26%

Yes

No

9

All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show that “YES” is increasing (2/2)

Sourcet: La Vanguardia, El Periódico

Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence of Catalonia

Nov 2009

March 2010

May 2010

July 2010

Sept2010

43% 45% 47%57%

47%

57% 55% 53%43%

53%

Yes

No

Apr 2007

Oct 2007

Des 2009

Jun 2010

Jan 2012

53%44% 49%

58% 63%

47%56% 51%

42% 37%

Yes

No

10

The trend line shows a clear social support to the “YES”

Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SERNote: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”)

Trend line, with a level of correlation (R2) of 0,6

Yes

11

In average, “Yes” is increasing by 6% every year

Source:, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SERNote: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results

2009 2010 2011 2012 (january)

46% 49%59% 63%

Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”)(simple average)

3 %

10 %

4 %

Average increase per year = 6%

Yes

12

If this trend remains, “Yes” would be supported by 70% of the people by 2013

Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SERNote: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results

Extrapolation for 2013 and 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (es-timation)

2014 (es-timation)

46.1%49.4%

59.1%62.6%

69.1%

75.0%

Yes

13

All surveys between 2001 and 2012 show a support to the “Yes” greater than 50%

Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER

Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió

Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials

El Periódico

Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura

Diari Ara

64.8%

64.4%

62.6%

53.3%

52.7%

Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”)

50%

14

Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the “Yes” greater than 60%

Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió

Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials

El Periódico

Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura

Diari Ara

64.8%

64.4%

62.6%

53.3%

52.7%

Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”)

Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER

15

We can conclude that the major social support to the YES is in Catalonia, already a reality

In the last surveys, “Yes” gets more than 50% of the votes and some cases , more than 60%

If the trend remains, support to the “Yes” will reach 70% of the votes by early 2013

As in Scotland, an official referendum will increase the support to the “Yes” thanks to the campain

We ask at the Catalan Governement to focus on the process to achieve thge Catalan State, via referendum or via early elections. A debate focused on the futur Catalan State

is necessary.

Empresaris per l’Estat propi

www.ccncat.cat info@ccncat.cat

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