Catalan Independence

Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 1

Perception survey Catalonia / Spain

MAIN RESULTS

Research by Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. Director: Miquel Strubell (Identi.Cat research group)

Field work and data analysis: Instituto DYM

With the support of the Centre of Contemporary Studies of Catalonia (CETC)

NOTE: this document has been translated by volunteers. If in doubt refer to the Catalan original file. Ref.: 09472183

November 2009

mailto:[email protected]




REFERENDUM REACTIONS

INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO

PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE

TECHNICAL FILE

FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE

DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION

TECHNICAL FILE



Technical FileData collection Interviews with Computer Aided Technology Inc (C.A.T.I.).

Fieldwork dates From September 14 to October 2, 2009.

Questionnaire Designed by the working team, and thereafter revised and adpated by Instituto DYM to C.A.T.I. methodology

Language preference Questions have been formulated in Catalan or Spanish according to preference of interviewed person.

Universe Population between15 and 74 (both included).

Span Catalonia

Sample selection Random sampling stratified by vegueries (regions) and habitat size. The person to be interviewed within the household was chosen randomly among household members, according to established quotas.

Quotas Quotas crossed by region (vegueries), habitat, gender and age, proportional to actual population.

Final Sample 2614 interviews

Sample error margin +2,0% calculated for a reliability level of 95,5%, under the assumption of maximum statistical indetermination (p=q=50%) according to the sample error formula for infinite universes.

Data weighting The weighting of interviews have been equated to the established distribution, so as to correct little deviations. Extra weighting has been introduced according to place of birth, equating it to actual proportion in present demographic data.





TECHNICAL FILE





In case a democratic decision clashed against the current laws, which do you think should prevail?

Base: Total interviews (2.614)NC = No Choice NA= No Answer

Current laws; 22%

Democratic Principles

67%

NC; 10%

NA; 1%



Do you think the peoples of the world have the right of self-determination, ie to choose freely and democratically their

own political future?


SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL

NC1,1%

In general terms no

6,5%

It depends3,5%

In general terms yes

88,9%


Do the peoples of the world have the right of self-determination, ie. deciding their

own political future freely and democratically?


SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL

And in the case of Catalonia, does it have the right of deciding freely and democratically its own political future?


Yes 82,6%

No 14,4%

NC 2,6%NA 0,4%

NC1,1%

In general terms no

6,5%

It depends3,5% In general

terms yes88,9%





TECHNICAL FILE




In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do?

Base: Total interviews (2.614)

NA1,4%NC

5,8%

Abstention /refrain from

voting24,6%

Vote against 17,8%

Vote for 50,3%

REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR





Percentages voting for independence

20,9

25,947,2

26,6

19,846,3

25,3

11,3

56,3

19,311,9

63,4

19,4

9,164,2 18,8

8,864,5



57,1

32,644,8

53,3

26,2

25,4 11,8

21,1 24,3 30,7

5,5 8,4 4,8 3,3

14,931,1

Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain in the rest of Europe In the rest of the World

No answer

No choice

Abstention /refrain fromvotingVote against

Vote for



BY PLACE OF BIRTH

Over average Under average


Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to decide Catalan independence?

Base: Vote for (1.376)

MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR

MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR

62,3

65,7

0,1

0,5

0,9

29,6

56,4

58,6

No answer

No choice

None of the above

Weariness of Spain

Language andcultural reasons

Feelings or beliefs

Economic motives

Peaceful/democraticreasons


60,8

29,3

25,9

25,7

5,8

0,9No choice

None of theabove

Scared ofconflict

Laws do notallow it

Economicallyunfeasible

Feelings orbeliefs


Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438)


MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST

62,3

65,7

0,1

0,5

0,9

29,6

56,4

58,6

No answer

No choice

None of the above

Weariness of Spain


Feelings or beliefs

Economic motives

Peaceful/democraticreasons


18,5

20,6

25,7

29,2

38,4

0,4

3,2

13,9

No answer

No choice

None of theabove


Laws do notallow it

Scared ofconflict

Feelings orbeliefs

Not mybusiness


Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438) Base: Abstention (607)


MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST MOTIVES TO ABSTAIN

62,3

65,7

0,1

0,5

0,9

29,6

56,4

58,6

No answer

No choice

None of the above

Weariness of Spain


Feelings or beliefs

Economic motives

Peaceful/democraticreasons 60,8

29,3

25,9

25,7

5,8

0,9No choice

None of theabove

Scared ofconflict

Laws do notallow it


Feelings orbeliefs





TECHNICAL FILE




30,4% 40,6% 13,1% 15,2% 0,6%

54,7% 27,6% 9,7%7,8%

0,3%

64,6% 29,0% 3,8%2,4%

0,2%Do you think the situation of

Catalan language and culture...

Do you think social welfare ofCatalans...

Do you think immigrationpolicies...

Would improve Would stay the sameWould worsen NCNA


In the case Catalonia became independent...



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A favor En contra Abstenció

81,3

37,8

58,4

16,9

59,8

37,8

1,8 2,4 3,8

Referendum behaviour

NS/NC

En desacord

D’acord


Do you agree with the expression: “An independent Catalonia could keep good

relations with Spain?”


For; 63,6%Against; 17,6%

No choice; 1,2% No answer; 0,4%Indifferent; 17,1%

NS8,1%

No20,8%

Si71,1%


EUROPEAN UNION

Would you be for or against Catalonia being part of the European Union as any other

member state?

Base: Total entrevistes (2.614)

Pensa que una Catalunya independent que formés part de la Unió Europea defensaria

millor els interessos dels catalans que en la situació actual?



NC8,1%

No20,8%

Yes71,1%


EUROPEAN UNION

Would you be for or against Catalonia being part of the European Union as any other

member state?


Do you think that an independent Catalonia which were part of the European Union would

sustain Catalan interests better?


For; 63,6%Against; 17,6%

No choice; 1,2% No answer; 0,4%Indifferent; 17,1%





TECHNICAL FILE




Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence?



NA0,5%NC

8,3%

Rather against34,4% Half and half

13,4%

Rather in favour 43,4%


57,2

16,938,2 29,9

13,4

10,7

13,020,5

63,538,7 33,9

6,9 8,2 9,4 15,022,2

Perception of those votingfor

Perception of those votingagainst

Perception of thoseabstaining

Perception of NC/NA

NA

NC

Rather infavour

Half and half

Rather against

Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence?



DISTRIBUTION ACCORDING TO REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR





TECHNICAL FILE





Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day?

NA0,1%

NC10,7%

No58,1%

Yes31,1%



DISTRIBUTION BY VEGUERIES OR REGIONSBase: Total interviews (2.614)



40.2

52.1

7.737.4

56.4

5.4

38.1

47.2

14.7

26.7

61.8

11.4

29.5

59,0

11.4

30.4

59.9

9.7


28,1 29,8 28,750,2

63 55,6 51,442,1

8,7 14,6 19,9 7,70000,1

Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain In the rest of Europe In the rest of the World

BIRTHPLACE DISTRIBUTION





When do you think Catalonia could become independent?

Base: will be independent some day (768)

TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE

NA0,1%

NC4,1%

In the longer run41,9%

In the next 20 years41,8%

In the next 5 years12,1%

Catalan Independence

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