Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak...
Transcript of Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak...
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National Weather Service
New Mexico Meteorological
Drought Status and
Weather/Climate Outlooks
Drought Monitoring Work Group
10:00am April 21, 2015
National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM
http://weather.gov/abq
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National Weather Service
April (1-18) 2015 Precipitation:
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National Weather Service
NRCS/USDA Snowpack Update
March 1, 2015 April 1, 2015
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National Weather Service
NRCS/USDA Snowpack Update
(just to make us all more depressed!)
April 1, 2015 April 21, 2015
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National Weather Service
April 21, 2015 Snow Depth
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
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National Weather Service
March 2015 Precipitation:
Average Precipitation: 0.65” (-0.08”)
Statewide average
89% of normal
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National Weather Service
March 2015 Precipitation Rank: 64th Driest
Average Precipitation: 0.65” (-0.08”)
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National Weather Service
March 2015 Precipitation by CD
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National Weather Service
2015 Calendar Year (Jan 2015 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation: 141% Normal
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National Weather Service
2015 Calendar Year (Jan 2015 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 19th Wettest (+0.81”)
Statewide Average 141% of normal
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National Weather Service
2015 Water Year (Oct 2014 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation: 108% Normal
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National Weather Service
2015 Water Year (Oct 2014 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 42nd Wettest (+0.38”)
Statewide Average 108% of normal
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National Weather Service
12 Month (April 2014 – March 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 35th Wettest (+1.40”)
Statewide Average 110% of Normal
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National Weather Service
24 Month (April 2013 – March 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 44th Wettest (+0.66”)
Statewide Average 102% of Normal
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National Weather Service
36 Month (March 2012 – February 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 24st driest (-4.72”)
Statewide Average 89% of Normal
48 months: 10th driest…60 months: 9th driest
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National Weather Service
Regional Drought Status (April 14th) Focus for most significant drought continues over
California and portions of Oklahoma & Texas
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National Weather Service
New Mexico Drought Status: April 14th ~62% of NM still in moderate to severe drought status
(~19% severe)
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National Weather Service
New Mexico Drought: 3 Month Change
19% of NM in severe drought
62% of state is in moderate to severe
drought
No extreme drought (since Mar 3)
Last time no extreme drought
Mar 1, 2011
Some Improvement
NW/W/portions of E
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National Weather Service
Extended
Weather/Climate
Outlooks
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National Weather Service
3 Month Loop of Weekly SSTs/Anomallies
4 week change
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National Weather Service
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
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National Weather Service
Forecaster/Model consensus continues to
support El Niño conditions through the summer
~70 chance of El Niño
conditions continuing
through the Summer; ~60
percent chance through
the Autumn
El Niño Advisory
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National Weather Service
Model consensus continues to support
El Niño conditions through Autumn
El Niño Advisory
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National Weather Service
CPC May 2015 Precipitation Outlook
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National Weather Service
CPC May 2015 Temperature Outlook
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National Weather Service
CPC Spring/Summer (May 2015 – Jul 2015)
Precipitation Outlook
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National Weather Service
CPC Spring/Summer (May 2015 - Jul 2015)
Temperature Outlook
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National Weather Service
A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook!
Sep-Nov
Dec-Feb
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National Weather Service The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced in partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States
Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Seasonal Outlook (Apr 16 – Jul 31)
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National Weather Service
Last week map 4/14/2015
Suggested changes this week?
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National Weather Service
Brian Guyer:
Chuck Jones:
www.weather.gov/abq