Real GDP Growth - University of Colorado Boulder · Real GDP Growth 5 3 9 9 Employment Growth 21 6...

Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder

Real GDP GrowthQuarterly Real GDP

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change, SAAR


10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Trillions, USD

Recession

18 MonthsRecession

8 Months

Real GDP

Actual Projected

Source: Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Economic Outlook, Fiscal Years 2015 to 2025.

GDP and Potential GDP

Potential Real GDP


National Employment

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands, Month-over-Month

Rec

essi

on 1

8 M

onth

s

Rec

essi

on 8

Mon

ths


State Employment GrowthPre-Recession Peak to October 2015

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).


National Unemployment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

U-3

U-2

U-1

Percentage of Labor Force


Labor Underutilization


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

U-6

U-5U-4U-3

U-2

U-1

Percentage of Labor Force


Labor SlackNumber of Available People Per Job Opening

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

People per job opening

Ratio of people not in the labor force who want a job now and the total number of unemployed, divided by total number of job openings

Sources: BLS JOLTS, Labor Force, and Unemployment; Deutsche Bank Research.

Pre-recession average


Labor Force and Unemployment RateNational, by Age Cohort, October 2015

70.8%

80.6% 82.3%79.4%

63.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

Labor Force Participation Rate

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, all data seasonally adjusted except for ages 55-64.

9.4%

5.3%

4.1%3.6%

3.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

Unemployment Rate


U.S. Income and Consumption

Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change

Real Personal Consumption

2.9%

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change

Real Disposable Income

2.8%


Household WealthQ2 2000-Q2 2015

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q2 2000 Q2 2003 Q2 2006 Q2 2009 Q2 2012 Q2 2015

$ Trillions

Mutual

Funds

Corporate

Equities

Real

Estate

Other

Assets

Total

Liabilities


Household Debt BurdenPercent of Disposable Income

Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

1980Q2 1983Q4 1987Q2 1990Q4 1994Q2 1997Q4 2001Q2 2004Q4 2008Q2 2011Q4 2015Q2

FORDSR


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015

1985=100 Recession

8 months

United States

Mountain Region

Index of Consumer Confidence

Recession

18 months

Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.


Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales

Sources: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Autodata Corp., Motor Intelligence, U.S. Census Bureau.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Vehicle SalesThousands, SAAR

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Retail and Food Services SalesYOY, Percentage Change


Nominal Corporate Profits and U.S. Business Fixed Investment

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change

Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change

Business Fixed Investment

4.2%

4.0%


ISM Indices

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

ISM Manufacturing Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index


National FHFA Home Price GrowthYear over Year Q3 2015

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.


Housing Affordability Index

Source: National Association of Realtors.

60

100

140

180

220

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Composite Index


National Housing Starts

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

1.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Millions


Federal Budget Balance

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$ Billions

-$473


Federal DebtPercentage of GDP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1943 1955 1967 1979 1991 2003 2015

Percent

Held by the Public

Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Federal Debt at End of Year (Table 7.1).

Gross Federal Debt


Money, Interest Rates, and Prices


Interest Rates

Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody’s.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Interest Rates, 2000-2017 (Forecast)Percent

10-Year T-Note

3-Month T-Bill


National Inflation

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Year-over-Year Percent Change

All items

Shelter

All items less food

and energy

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).


Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices


Change in Population

4th-fastest state for percentage growth

8th-fastest state for absolute growth

22nd-most populated state in nation

Continued net migration into the state

83% of population along Front Range

Source: Colorado Demography Office.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039

Thousands

Change in Colorado Population 2004-2040

Na

tura

l Incre

ase

Net M

igra

tion


Colorado Employment GrowthJobs Added

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, BEOF Committee Members.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands

65,100


Employment Change2015-2016

Natural Resources and Mining

Information

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Leisure and Hospitality

Construction

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Education and Health Services

Professional and Business Services

-4 0 4 8 12 16Thousands of Jobs



Colorado Ranking Among Other States

Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year

Real GDP Growth 5 3 9 9

Employment Growth 21 6 5 5

Population Growth 4 3 4 6

Personal Income Growth 7 1 3 9

PCPI Growth 9 12 23 29

PCPI 14 16 13 12

Average Annual Pay Growth 8 16 20 20

Average Annual Pay 13 12 12 12

Unemployment Rate 13 27 29 22

Labor Force 38 17 12 7

FHFA Home Price Index 1 5 6 4

Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Housing Finance Agency, and the

Colorado State Demography Office. BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.


Talent in ColoradoPercent Bachelor's Degree or Higher

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

We

st

Vir

gin

iaM

iss

issip

pi

Ark

an

sa

sK

en

tucky

Lo

uis

ian

aN

evad

aA

lab

am

aO

kla

ho

ma

Ind

ian

aId

ah

oT

en

ness

ee

So

uth

Ca

roli

na

Ne

w M

ex

ico

Oh

ioW

yo

min

gF

lori

da

Mic

hig

an

No

rth

Dak

ota

Mis

so

uri

Ari

zo

na

Iow

aS

ou

th D

ako

taT

ex

as

Ala

ska

Wis

co

nsin

No

rth

Caro

lin

aP

en

nsy

lvan

iaG

eo

rgia

Mo

nta

na

Ma

ine

Neb

rask

aR

ho

de I

sla

nd

Dela

wa

reO

reg

on

Haw

aii

Uta

hK

an

sas

Califo

rnia

Illi

no

isW

ash

ing

ton

Min

nes

ota

New

Yo

rkV

erm

on

tN

ew

…V

irg

inia

New

Je

rsey

Co

nn

ec

ticu

tM

ary

lan

dC

olo

rad

oM

assa

ch

usett

s

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Educational Attainment, 2014 ACS.


Construction

Value of Construction

Nonresidential

30%

Nonbuilding

14%

Residential

55%

Photo Courtesy www.rtd-fastracks.com


Housing Units vs. Households

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Households

2000-2007 – 125,060

more housing units than

households

Annual Change

Housing Units

2008-2014 –113,230

more households than

housing units

Source: Colorado State Demography Office. Data as of September 2014.


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Source: Standard & Poor’s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Chicago

Washington D.C.

New York

Cleveland

Minneapolis

Charlotte

Boston

Phoenix

Detroit

Las Vegas

Atlanta

Los Angeles

Tampa

San Diego

Miami

Seattle

Dallas

Portland

Denver

San Francisco

September 2015

Percent Change


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

36,750

Residential Building Permits2006-2016

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Multifamily

Single

Family

Residential Housing:

• Home appreciation among the fastest nationally

• Mostly single family permits in 2016

• Lowest foreclosure rate in two decades


Value of ConstructionResidential, 2006-2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$Millions $8.8 B

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.


Value of ConstructionNonresidential, 2006-2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

$ Millions

$4,851.5

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Photo courtesy of Denver International Airport.


Value of ConstructionNonbuilding, 2006-2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

$ Millions

$3.2 B

Sources: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee and Dodge Construction

Analytics. Photo courtesy of RTD..


Value of Construction2006-2016

Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

$16.8 B

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$ Millions

Nonbuilding

Residential

Nonresidential


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands

160.2

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

ConstructionEmployment, 2006-2016

Photo Courtesy of Breckenridge

Brewery.


Real Estate Breakout Session

“How Long will This Hot Real Estate Market Last?”

Tom Thibodeau, Leeds School of Business

Tyler Carner, CBRE

Jeff Handlin, Anthem

Riki Hashimoto, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank

Pat Stucker, Jones Lang LaSalle

Doug Wulf, Cassidy Turley

Jay Landt, Colliers International


Agriculture

Photo

court

esy

of Ji

ll Lam

bert

.


Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income2006-2016

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

$ Millions

Net Income

Farm Production

$7.7B

Photo courtesy of Sandy Wilt.


Livestock Cash Receipts2006-2016


1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

$ Millions

$4.7B• 70% of total value of production in

Colorado

• Rebuilding herds

• Fed cattle prices continued to wane from 2011 high

• Number of cattle sales anticipated to drop to record low in 2015


Commodity PricesWheat and Corn

Sources: Prices from U.S. Department of Agriculture (No. 1 hard red winter - ordinary protein, Kansas City, MO), Bloomberg (USDA

Toledo No. 2 Yellow Corn Not on the River Spot Price). Data through November 12, 2015.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Dollars

Wheat

Corn


Crops Cash Receipts2006-2016


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

$ Millions

$1.8B

• Corn prices lowest in five years

• Major crops: wheat, corn, and hay

• Cash receipts expected to fall for 2016

• Government payments expected to rise for 2016

• Innovation will play an increasing role for agriculture


Manufacturing

Spro

ut

Tin

y H

om

es

built

in L

a J

unta

’s indust

rial park

. Photo

by D

iane G

raham

.


Manufacturing and Total Jobs AddedColorado, 1991-2015

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Thousands

Total Employment

Manufacturing

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Manufacturing Employment2006-2016

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands

142,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

2016 impacts will include:

• Lower energy prices

• Interest rates

• Trans-Pacific Partnership

• Dollar strength

• Exports


0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

1859

1872

1885

1898

1911

1924

1937

1950

1963

1976

1989

2002

2015

Number of Breweries

Pro

hib

itio

n

Nondurable Goods1859-2015

Source: Colorado Brewers Guild.

• Account for 35% of manufacturing employment

• Food manufacturing largest subsector

• Food manufacturing adding the most jobs in 2016

• Colorado third for craft breweries


Durable Goods

Account for 65% of manufacturing employment

2016 throughout sector:

• Nonmetallic minerals

• Fabricated metals

• Computer and electronic products

• Transportation equipment

• Other durables

Employment growth:

• 2.7% in 2015

• 1.8% in 2016


Natural Resources and Mining


0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Dollars per Barrel

November 16, 2015:

$41.68

November 17, 2014:

$75.64

June 3, 2008: $145.31

WTI Oil Price2004-2015

Average 2004-2015

Source: EIA, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel).


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Millions of Barrels

Crude Oil Production

Largest Producers

1. Texas

2. North Dakota

3. California

4. New Mexico

5. Alaska

6. Colorado

7. Oklahoma

8. Wyoming

9. Louisiana

10. Kansas

Production boosted by

Horizontal drilling

Hydraulic fracturing

2006-2016

Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

107.5


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Billions of Cubic Feet

Natural Gas Production2006-2016

Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

1,475

• Seventh-largest producing state

• Average residential gas prices in Colorado for 2014 were the fourth-lowest in the country

• Net exporter of natural gas

• Total value of production stagnant due to prices


Coal Production2006-2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Short Tons (Millions)

19.0


• Supplies 60% of Colorado’s energy

• State ranking slipped to 11th

in 2015

• Ships to 21 states

• Decreasing demand from TVA

• Power plants divesting from coal


Colorado Severance Taxes2005-2015

Sources: Energy Information Association (EIA), Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB; Colorado Department of Revenue, Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

Severance Taxes, 12-Mo. Rolling Sum

WTI, 12-Mo. Ave. $/Barrel

WTI Spot Price

(R Axis)

Severance Taxes

(L Axis)


Renewables

• First renewable portfolio standard in the country

• Includes wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass

• 17.8% of net generation in 2014

• Most of Colorado’s renewable energy comes from wind resources

• Colorado ranks 10th nationally for total megawatts installed for wind energy

Photo courtesy of Juan Altamirano.


Natural Resources and MiningWorkers Added, 2006-2016


-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands

-1.3

Making Sense of

Commodities Prices

-Mt. Sopris Room B


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2006 2009 2012 2015

Goods-Producing Workers Added 2006-2016

10.6

Thousands

Mining1%

Construction6%

Manufacturing6%

Services-Producing

87%

Goods-Producing Share of Colorado Employment


Goods-Producing Employment


International Trade

Top 15 Export Destinations

Canada

Mexico

China

Japan

Malaysia

Korea, Republic Of

Netherlands

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Germany

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Philippines

Australia

Belgium

Major Export Destinations

Canada20%

Mexico13%

China (Mainland)

8%

Japan6%

Netherlands4% Malaysia

4%

Republic of Korea

4%

Hong Kong3%

Other38%

Export Destinations

Sources: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.


International Trade

Factors Impacting Trade

• Slower economic growth in some international economies

• Strengthening of U.S. dollar

• Trans-Pacific Partnership

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

90.00

95.00

100.00

105.00

110.00

115.00

120.00

125.00

130.00

135.00

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Indexed, 1973=100

Nominal Broad Dollar Index


Colorado ExportsValue of Exports, 2006-2015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$ Millions

$8,229

Sources: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.


Colorado Agricultural Exports

Photo courtesy of Brigitte Shafer.


Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Photo courtesy of Denver International Airport.


Wholesale Trade

Employment growth at a slower pace

Dominated by merchant wholesalers in durable goods

Durables: computers, electronics

Nondurables: groceries

Workers Added, 2006-2016

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands

3.1



$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Dollars per Gallon

November 30, 2015:

US $2.17

CO $2.01

December 1, 2014:

US $2.86

CO $2.84

July 7, 2008:

US $4.17

CO $4.03

Colorado Gasoline Prices 2005-2015

Source: Weekly Colorado All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon).

Average 2004-2014


Retail Trade Sales

Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

5.6

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change

Nominal Growth

Real Growth

Colorado Retail Trade Sales

2006-2016

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Colorado Taxable Retail Sales12-Month Rolling Sum

12-Month Rolling Sum,

$ Millions

70 Months


DIA Enplanements and Deplanements2005-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Millions

53.5

Sources: Denver International Airport and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.


Transportation and WarehousingEmployment

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

ThousandsTransportation and Warehousing Jobs Added

2006-2016

2.0



Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million kWhElectricity Consumption

2006-2016

54,262

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Billion Cubic Feet

Natural Gas Consumption 2006-2016

481.8

Sources: Edison Electrical Institute Statistical Yearbook, Xcel Energy, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands

Utilities

Retail

Trade

Wholesale

Trade

454.8

Transportation


Trade, Transportation, and UtilitiesEmployment, 2006-2016


Information


-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

Percentage Change

$22.3

$ Billions,

Chained 2009

Information GDP2000-2014



Publishing

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Publishing Workers Added, 2006-2016

-0.1

Thousands



Telecommunications2006-2016

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.2

Thousands

Telecom, 39%

Other, 33%

Information Employment

Publishing,

28%



Colorado’s Film Industry

Colorado Film Tourism

The Hateful Eight

Dear Eleanor

Heaven Sent

Fast and Furious 7

Cop Car


Financial Activities

70%

30%

Financial Activities Employment

Finance and Insurance

Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee


600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-53%

203%

Price in Dollars

Securities TrendsS&P 500 Index, 2008-2015 YTD

Source: Bloomberg.


The FEDBalance Sheet, 2007-2015

• QE 1, QE 2, QE 3

• Fed promises near zero interest rates until mid-2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

• Operation Twist

• Swaps

• Tapering

• Tapering Complete

• Federal Funds Rate Increase?

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Other Assets

Mortgage BackedSecurities

Federal Agency DebtSecurities

Treasury Securities

$ Millions

Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet.


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

Percent ChangeDeposits, Millions

Percent Change

Deposits

Colorado Bank Deposits1994-2015

Source: FDIC, Deposit Market Share Report.


Improving capital structures in banks

Raising new capital is expensive for smaller banks

Solid loan demand

Improvement in loan portfolios

Decline in acquisitions by large banks

Regulatory environment causing some banks to opt out of making mortgage loans

Banking Trends


Regulation

Dodd-Frank Act Rulemaking

• Real estate lending “7 rules”

Growing compliance costs

Regulation uncertainty

Customers on the margin are excluded due to tightened regulation

and greater regulatory complexity with regards to loans

TILA-RESPA went into effect in August 2015

Smaller loan interest margins limit revenues


Colorado Insurance Trends

Modest job growth in 2015 and 2016

Premium increases for property and casualty subsector

Increased number of insurance agency mergers and acquisitions

Health rates expected to increase 2016


Commercial Real Estate Trends

Colorado ranked fourth-best state for a STEM-focused economy

Rising rents and decreasing vacancies

Lowest post-recession retail vacancy rate in Denver (5.9%)

Statewide economic growth driving real estate activity


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Total State Foreclosures Over Time

Filings

Sales

Colorado Foreclosures2004-2015

Source: Colorado Division of Housing

2014 2015

June YTD2014-2015


Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)House Price Index by MSA

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Pueblo

Greeley

Fort Collins

Boulder

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

Percent

Colorado 12.7%

Q3 2014 – Q3 2015

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Grand Junction

Colorado Springs

Pueblo

Greeley

Fort Collins

Boulder

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

Percent

Colorado 2.5%

CAGR Q3 2005 – Q3 2015


-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands

2.6


Financial Activities Employment2006-2016



Management of

Companies and

Enterprises

9%

Administrative and

Support and Waste

Management

Services

40%

Professional,

Scientific, and

Technical

Services

51%


Legal 10%

Architectural and Engineering

23%

Computer Systems Design

25%

Management, Scientific,

and Technical

Consulting11%

Other 31%

PST Employment

-8.0

-3.0

2.0

7.0

12.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

PST Workers Added 2006-2016

8.7

Thousands


Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services


Management of Companies and Enterprises2006-2016

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.9

Thousands


Most diverse sector of PBS, includes broad cross-section of headquarters and regional offices

Sells nationally and globally

Colorado remains an appealing place to locate company headquarters


Moderated by:

Ellen Balaguer, Retired Senior Executive, Accenture

Panelists:

Matt Erickson, Zayo Group

Brian McDonald, Charles Schwab

Joe Mello, DaVita HealthCare Partners

Mary Rhinehart, Johns Manville

CEO Panel


Administrative and Waste Services

Building and Dwellings,

27%

Business Support,

16%

Other, 25%

Admin and Waste Services Employment

Employment

Services,

29%

-16.0

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Admin and Waste Services Workers Added 2006-2016

5.8

Thousands



-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands

15.5


Professional and Business ServicesWorkers Added, 2006-2016



Photo

court

esy

of:

Colo

rado S

tate

Park

s.


-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands

7.4

Accommodation & Food ServicesWorkers Added, 2006-2016



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Millions

Public Lands Visits2008-2016

57.7

Sources: National Park Service and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Colorado Public Lands Visits

Photo courtesy of: Colorado State Parks.


Skier Visits

Photo Courtesy of: steamboatpowdercats.com

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=y1Aw5R07y0AszM&tbnid=FYUbdVwfkY7CYM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.steamboatpowdercats.com/2-24-12-bluebird-powder-day/&ei=AzSNUpqEFojtrQHN5YDgAw&bvm=bv.56643336,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNEKGdBRZwuRHVN7DP9gBYWDjtFk5w&ust=1385071102906604

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=y1Aw5R07y0AszM&tbnid=FYUbdVwfkY7CYM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.steamboatpowdercats.com/2-24-12-bluebird-powder-day/&ei=AzSNUpqEFojtrQHN5YDgAw&bvm=bv.56643336,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNEKGdBRZwuRHVN7DP9gBYWDjtFk5w&ust=1385071102906604


-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

9.0

Thousands


Leisure and HospitalityWorkers Added 2006-2016

• 1-in-8 Colorado jobs

• Industry among the first to add workers after

the recession

• Stronger household balance sheets and

increased income

• Increase in consumer spending in restaurants


Education and Health Services


Private Education

Includes:

• Elementary and Secondary Schools

• Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools

• Sports and Recreation Instruction

• Cosmetology and Barber Schools

• Fine Arts Schools

• Exam Preparation and Tutoring

• Automobile Driving Schools


Private EducationEmployment, 2006-2016


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands37.9


Health Care Services

11% of Colorado jobs

Consistent employment growth

Obesity among Coloradoans growing

Growing senior population

Insurance coverage expanding4.8%

1.8%

1.7%

3.7%

1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

SocialAssistance

Nursing Care

Hospitals

Ambulatory

Health Care Services Employment Growth, Annualized, 2007-2015

CAGR



Health Care ServicesMajor Trends

• Growth of patient population outpacing growth of

healthcare providers

• Average annual wage is below statewide average

• Sustained growth expected because of:

– Aging population

– Greater number of people eligible for health

insurance

– Growing rates of diabetes and obesity


Health Care ServicesOccupations

• Above average patient to physician ratio

compared to the nation

• Nurse practitioners are growing the

quickest of the healthcare occupations,

both statewide and nationally

• Registered nurses are the largest segment

of primary care

• Growing demand for long-term services

and support (LTSS) workforce with aging

population


Health Care ServicesLegislation

• 93.3% of Colorado’s population now

has health insurance due to the

passing of the PPACA

• Increasing insurance premiums

• Growing number of underinsured

Coloradoans

• Higher premiums for individual

insurance coverage


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thousands

323

Education

Health Care and Social Assistance

Education and Health ServicesEmployment, 2006-2016



Other Services

Repair and Maintenance

Personal and Laundry Services

Nonprofit Associations(Religious, Grantmaking,

Civic, Professional, andSimilar Organizations)

Workers Added, 2006-2016


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1.9

Thousands


GovernmentEmployment, 2006-2016

340,000

350,000

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

410,000

420,000

430,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

418,200



Government Employment

Federal13%

State (General)10%

State (Education)16%

Local (General)29%

Local (Education)32%


Federal GovernmentWorkers Added, 2006-2016

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.4

Thousands



State GovernmentWorkers Added, 2006-2016

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands

0.7

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee, Photo courtesy of coloradopreservation.org.*Note: 2013 increase partially due to reclassification of employees.


Colorado General FundGross Revenue (excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers)

Source: Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting, excluding reserves, diversions, and transfers, December 2014.

6,000

6,600

7,200

7,800

8,400

9,000

9,600

10,200

10,800

11,400

12,000

FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018

$ Millions


Local GovernmentWorkers Added, 2006-2016

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Thousands

2.3


Revenue Sources:

Property taxes

Sales and use taxes

Fees

Intergovernmental revenues


Colorado Property Tax Revenue

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rural

Millions

Urban and Rural, 2005-2014

Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs.

Urban


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Public School Enrollment Student

Enrollment

EducationPublic Enrollment, 2004-2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Student Enrollment

Higher Education Enrollment All Levels

Source: Colorado Department of Education and Colorado Department of Higher Education

Charter Schools

Traditional K-12


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Services-Producing Workers Added 2006-2016

54.5

Thousands


Trade, Transportation,

and Utilities18%

Information

3%Financial Activities

6%


16%

Private Education and Health

12%


12%

Other4%

Government16%

Goods-Producing

13%

Services-Producing Employment

Services-Producing Employment


Colorado Employment GrowthJobs Added, 1991-2016

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Thousands

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

Best

years

since

2000


International and National Summary

Global output and trade growth

Value of the dollar strengthening

GDP growth nearing potential

Balance sheets getting stronger

Rising (but low) interest rates

Subdued inflation


State Summary

Colorado outperforms nation in

employment growth

Falling unemployment

Labor force pressures

Full employment

Growing population

Strong in-migration


Concerns

Fed funds target rate

Cost of housing

Availability of labor

Price of oil

El Niño

Median family income

Real GDP Growth - University of Colorado Boulder · Real GDP Growth 5 3 9 9 Employment Growth 21 6...

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