QIMOS Node 2014 Annual Planning...

1 - IMOS 2014 Annual Planning - QIMOS

QIMOS Node 2014 Annual Planning meeting


QIMOS - Outline

• Challenges and scientific opportunities • QIMOS under NCRIS II • How can QIMOS make a difference?

– Uptake from QIMOS: 2006 - 2014. • Future vision


GBR and SEQ Marine ecosystems under pressure

• Major urbanisation along coastal fringe

• Coastal development (ports, navigation, coastal industries)

• Coastal habitat loss • Poor water quality • Extreme events - Floods

and coastal inundation

Opportunities


GBR and SEQ Marine ecosystems under pressure

GBR specific • Threat to values that underpin World Heritage Listing

– Strategic Assessment – Reef 2050 Sustainability Plan • Poor water quality (catchment runoff, COTS) • Port developments, dredging and spoil disposal.

COTS have caused 42% of the observed coral loss (48% by cyclones, 10% bleaching). De’ath, G., et al 2012. The 27–year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. PNAS

Opportunities


What we do under NCRIS II

Central GBR Palm Passage / Myrmidon moorings Orpheus Island Sensor net Yongala NRS ATAAMS

Southern GBR Heron Island moorings Capricorn Radar Heron + One tree Sensor net ATAAMS

Lizard Island Sensor Coral sea gliders – 2 missions p.a.

SEQ NSI NRS ATAAMS CPR, AUV

Few and Sparse - Very limited continental shelf footprint - Few near real-time data streams - 1 mooring for SEQ - No off-reef observations north of central GBR


... and how can QIMOS make a difference?

Central GBR Palm Passage / Myrmidon moorings Orpheus Island Sensor net Yongala NRS ATAAMS

Southern GBR Heron Island moorings Capricorn Radar Heron + One tree Sensor net ATAAMS

SEQ NSI NRS ATAAMS CPR, AUV

Few and Sparse - Very limited continental shelf footprint - Few near real-time data streams - 1 mooring for SEQ - No off-reef observations north of central GBR

Lizard Island Sensor Coral sea gliders – 2 missions p.a.


...impediments to uptake

- offshore focus vs coastal issues - limited spatial coverage - Few near real-time data streams - timely access to quality controlled data

- industrial & operational needs


Sustainable marine industries – SE QLD Trawl effort Relative trawl effort in indicates highly productive ecosystems sustained by upwelling

Uptake


• 15 species – commercial , recreational and conservation value including sharks, turtles, dugongs, manta rays, bony fish and crabs

• 350 tagged animals • “fully co-invested” • 645 km coverage, 196 receivers • Commonwealth and State research

agencies, Universities, consultants (>9)

Sustainable marine industries – SEQ ATAAMS array Uptake


Heron Island

Maryborough

Brisbane

Bryon Bay

Coffs Harbour

Port Macquarie

Tagging 2012, 2013 18 tagged leopard sharks (V16)

April13 Nov13-Jan14

x6

100km

Christine Dudgeon 100km

Feb12 Oct12-Mar13 Oct13-Jan14

x6 y1 y2

• 66% return rate • The majority of tagged sharks recorded

moving north in winter


Decision support tools

Management action, scenario testing & assessment

Modelled catchment loads

Large-scale WQ model

Ecological impact models

Fine-scale impact models

Receiving water impact models

Management scenario Mass Flow Impact assesment

Receiving water quality models and management strategy evaluation

Uptake


Moreton Bay RWQM Uptake


Conceptual linkages between management action targets and targets/objectives

for receiving waters water quality and ecosystem health

Webster IT, Brinkman R, Parslow J, Prange J, Stevens ADL and Waterhouse J. 2008.

eReefs : Integrated bio-physical modelling of the GBR


Large-scale Water Quality Model

eReefs Modelling framework


Oceanographic Moorings Ocean Gliders* Ocean Surface Radar Remote sensing Meteorological weather stations Sensor Networks ARGO profilers Underway sampling

Q-IMOS

Lizard Slope (360m)

Lizard Shelf (30m)

Myrmidon Reef (200m)

Palm Passage (65m)

Yongala NRS (30m)

Capricorn Channel (90m)

Heron North (46m) Heron South (46m) One Tree

East (60m)

Elusive Reef (300m)

Cairns

Townsville


• outbreaks 1962, 1979, 1994 and 2012 are known to have begun on the reefs between Cairns and Lizard Island since 1950.

• Floods of 1973-74, 1990-91 and 2010-11 were the three largest in the last 80 years. • primary COTS outbreaks follow 2-5 years after early (Nov-Feb) wet seasons when

aggregate discharges from the Burdekin to Daintree rivers exceeded 10 Km3.

Application – understanding drivers of reef water quality and COTS outbreaks..


True colour MODIS image of the central GBR on 10 February 2007 showing the extent of river plumes between Cape Bedford (15.2°S) and the Burdekin River (19°S). Imagery source: NASA GSFC. Processed by L. McKinna (JCU).

Cape Bedford

(15.2°S)

Cape Tribulation

Daintree River

Grafton Passage

Russell-Mulgrave Rivers

Johnstone River

Tully River

Herbert River

Townsville

Burdekin River (19°S)

Cairns

Undine Reef


Salinity

20 PSU 30

Passive Tracer Burdekin River

0 % init 10 Conc


Volumetric and DIN contributions of individual rivers to the COTS outbreak initiation region

Volumetric

Ranking DIN Risk Ranking

River Northern Southern Northern Southern

Normanby 8 8 Daintree 1 1 2 5 Barron 6 2 Russell-Mulgrave 2 4 1 2 Johnstone 4 6 3 3 Tully 3 5 3 4 Herbert 7 7 Burdekin 5 3 1

Contribution to Nitrogen pool in COTS outbreak region: Entire region : Russell-Mulgrave > Burdekin > Johnstone Northern: Russell-Mulgrave > Daintree> Johnstone Southern: Burdekin > Russell-Mulgrave > Johnstone

• Risk-based approach utilised by the 2013 Scientific Consensus Statement

on GBR water quality (Brodie et al. 2013b). • Identified priority catchments for remedial action, influence investment

decisions within the Reef Plan overseen by the Australian and Queensland Governments.


Large-scale Water Quality Model

eReefs Modelling framework

predicting sediment transport and pelagic primary production at shelf scales


TSS (kg m-3) during the cyclone Yasi event non-cyclone conditions

Improved understanding of GBR WQ variability


Cross section of simulated total phytoplankton chlorophyll, carbon and the dynamically varying C:Chl ratio on the 18th October 2012.

Simulated uncalibrated surface chlorophyll

Improved understanding of GBR WQ variability


GBR Integrated monitoring program • 2013 - Strategic Assessments for the GBR and the adjacent coastal zone. • 2014 - Long-term Sustainability Plan for the GBR.

• A key feature of the Plan is expected to be an Integrated Monitoring

Program designed to inform adaptive management.

• underpinning layer of observations • Weather, ocean variability , reef water quality

• Increase spatial coverage (Northern GBR) • Increased density (increase lagoonal obs) • Increased frequency

How, cost effectively?


Future directions • Leverage ocean observation through integration with numerical

simulation models • Models informing adaptive management

– GBR & SEQ demonstrate the value proposition – GBR IMP, cumulative impacts

• Requires a suite of essential in-situ ocean observations – cal/val & data assimilation – External eReefs review

• Identified strong dependency of model and data - risk • Availability of data underpins utility of model

– imminent scoping study to identify critical variables for eReefs

• Priority data streams - priority shelf gliders – Others, see Node SIP


Thank you

Acknowledgements: All those who contributed to the QIMOS Node Science and implementation plan. Peter Doherty (Foundation Node Leader) Russ Babcock (Deputy Node leader) QIMOS Advisory group

QIMOS Node 2014 Annual Planning...

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