Q2 Report | 2018

TRILLIUMWEST Quarterly Data Report

Inside the Numbers

So ... Are we back?We get this question every day. This answer is ... we are on our way. Q2 of 2017 wasn’t the beginning of the real estate consumption insanity in Guelph, but it was likely the most impactful - the train just kept on rolling on an unexpected track. A year later, portions of the city ap-pear to have fully recovered, while other areas still have work to do.

Remember - to fully understand the market we must focus on trends, not individual sales. Across the city we are trending in a much better direction. A city-wide Y/Y decrease in the detached median sale price of just 1.2% says we have come a long way back. The reliable stability we have come to expect from the Guelph market appears to be on the horizon.

Stick with the plan your Realtor helps you to create. Understanding the market means more than ever.

Q2| 2018

Median Det. Sale Price

% Chg (Y) Q2 | 2017 % Chg (Q) Q1 | 2018

Number of New Sales

Median Days on Market

New Inventory

$557,000

$650,000

$600,000

$550,000

$500,000

$450,000

Q2 | 2017 Q3 | 2017

MEDIAN DET. SALE PRICE # OF SALES

Q2 | 2018 UP & DOWN QUICK REVIEW

648

18

994

1.2% q

11.2% q

9 days p

7.4% q

$564,000

730

9

1074

1.7% p

44% p

5 days p

42.8% p

$547,750

450

13

696

800

600

400

0.65 Q2 | Sales to New Listing RatioA time of year typically short on inventory, this lead indicator rose back up again. Sellers were still in control.

p1% Q/Q increase in East Guelph median sale price. The road back remains a patient one.

p13% Y/Y increase in the North Guelph sales to new listing ratio. A big leap and the largest increase in the city.

p23% Q/Q increase in the South Guelph median list price. Seller confidence shows a return on the South-side.

p85% Q/Q increase in Downtown Guelph new inventory. New projects feed the rise of city-centre urbanization.

q1% Y/Y decrease in the Downtown Guelph sales to new listing ratio. Consistency remains in the core.

q20% Y/Y decrease in West Guelph new inventory. Restrict-ed supply fed a Q/Q 6% increase in median sale price.

q7% Y/Y decrease in South Guelph median sale price. The recovery is underway. Is a full return within reach?

q15% Y/Y decrease in volume of East Guelph sales. The impact of diminished GTA Buyer wave is felt.

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Q22018

COMPLETE DATA | CITY OF GUELPH* For a reference to calculations, visit http://www.trilliumwest.com/knowledge/market-data/

Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2018

1000

TRILLIUMWEST Real Estate Brokerage is based out of Guelph, Ontario.All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

Median List Price

% Change (+/-)

$599,900

$580,950

3.3% p

Number of Sales

208

254

22.1% q

New Inventory

364

382

4.7% q

Sales/New Ratio

0.57

0.66

13.6% q

Median Sale Price

$513,750

$552,250

7% q

% Change (+/-)

178 313 0.57 $475,750

Detached Homes

Town/Link Homes

Apartment/Condo

212

99

53

207

117

58

p

q

q

Q2 2018 Q2 2017 TREND

Total 364 382 q

Sales to New Ratio 0.57 0.66

Q2 | NEW INVENTORY

Detached Town/Link Aprtmnt/Condo

103

143

7077

35 34

Q2 2018 Q2 2017

SOUTH GUELPH REVIEW

Easy to get the message mixed.If you are confused by what you see in the Q2 South Guelph numbers, it’s more than understandable - they are a little tough to understand. While the remnants of a torrid 2017 are still being felt, if we focus on the Q/Q numbers, things appear to be right back on track on the south-side.

One of the more interesting trends we are watching in South Guelph is the detached home market. Y/Y the inventory remained consistent, however a 39% reduction in sales volume and a 2% drop in median sale price is certainly something to pay attention to.

Neighbourhoods of South Guelph - Kortright East, The Village By The Arboretum, Campus Estates, Preservation Park, Rickson Ridge, Kortright Hills, Clairfields, Pine Ridge/Westminster Woods, Rolling Hills Estates, Priory Park, Old Univer-sity, Municipal Park

DETACHED MEDIAN SALE$659,500

TOWN/LINK MEDIAN SALE$442,000

APRTMNT/CONDO MEDIAN SALE$342,900

22.5% p 16.9% p 16.3% p = 8% p

q

Q2 2018 | Total

Q2 2017 | Total

Q1 2018 | Total

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Q2 | SALES BY INVENTORY TYPE

SOUTHGUELPHTRILLIUMWEST QUARTERLY DATA REPORTQ22018

$489,900

TRILLIUMWEST Real Estate Brokerage is based out of Guelph, Ontario.All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

Median List Price

Q2 2018 | Total

Q2 2017 | Total

$469,900

$442,450

6.2% p

Number of Sales

154

143

7.7% p

New Inventory

211

192

9.9% p

Sales/New Ratio

0.73

0.74

1.4% q

Median Sale Price

$446,000

$435,000

2.5% p

Q1 2018 | Total $444,950 81 114 0.71 $439,900

Detached Homes

Town/Link Homes

Apartment/Condo

148

25

38

85

22

36

p

p

p

Total 211 143 p

0.73 0.83 Detached Town/Link Aprtmnt/Condo

Q2 2018 Q2 2017

Looking lovely in lively Downtown.The stability train in Downtown Guelph rolled right along into Q2. Measured growth across all data points provided for some shared opportunity for both buyers and sellers.

The detached median sale price, while it continues to climb, is still amongst the lowest in the city. Purchasers looking for smaller footprints should like their options in the city core for the foreseeable future. With new condo and townhome options providing a steady surge of supply, we see the Downtown market staying on track through Q3.

Neighbourhoods of Downtown Guelph - The Ward, St.Georges Park, St. Patrick, Orchard Estates, Guelph General, Exhibition Park, Downtown Guelph, The Junction Visit TrilliumWest.com/neighbourhoods for a video vignette of Downtown Guelph and individual neighbourhood profiles.

$483,000 $327,500 $330,000

5.6% p 90.1% p 85.1% p 2.8% p 1.4% p

% Change (+/-)

% Change (+/-)

Sales to New Ratio q

97101

2412

3330

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Q2 | NEW INVENTORY

Q2 2018 Q2 2017 TREND

DETACHED MEDIAN SALE TOWN/LINK MEDIAN SALE APRTMNT/CONDO MEDIAN SALE

DOWNTOWN GUELPH REVIEW

Q2 | SALES BY INVENTORY TYPE

DOWNTOWNGUELPHTRILLIUMWEST QUARTERLY DATA REPORTQ22018

TRILLIUMWEST Real Estate Brokerage is based out of Guelph, Ontario.All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

% Change

$489,900

1% p

74

66.2% p

116

60.3% p

0.64

3.1% p

$471,250

0.58% p

Detached Homes

Town/Link Homes

Apartment/Condo

102

63

21

120

72

7

Total 186 199

0.66 0.73 Detached Town/Link Aprtmnt/Condo

$521,000 $459,000 $315,900

The slow climb back continues.We have been discussing it for a year now and East Guelph has finally made its way back to where it was. The insanity of early 2017, and then ensuing rollback in Q’s 3 and 4, took a year to recover from. But alas, we are now seeing the signs of a return to stability and consistency in a market known for just that.

The only seemingly unaffected sub-market in East Guelph has been townhomes, with the highest median sale price in the city. Strange? We say, um not really. With such a large percentage of East Guelph town and link homes being freehold when compared to the rest of the city, that adds a significant boost to resale home prices.

Neighbourhoods of East Guelph - Brant, Grange Hill, Holy Rosary, St. Patrick

Visit TrilliumWest.com/neighbourhoods for a video vignette of East Guelph and individual neighbourhood profiles.

Median List Price

% Change (+/-)

$494,950

$480,000

3.1% p

Number of Sales

123

145

15.2% q

New Inventory

186

199

6.5% q

Sales/New Ratio

0.66

0.73

9.6% q

Median Sale Price

$474,000

$477,000

0.63% q

Sales to New Ratio

q

q

p

q

q

Q2 2018 | Total

Q2 2017 | Total

Q1 2018 | Total

60

85

5254

11 6

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Q2 | NEW INVENTORY Q2 | SALES BY INVENTORY TYPE

Q2 2018 Q2 2017 TREND Q2 2018 Q2 2017

EAST GUELPH REVIEW

DETACHED MEDIAN SALE TOWN/LINK MEDIAN SALE APRTMNT/CONDO MEDIAN SALE

EASTGUELPHTRILLIUMWEST QUARTERLY DATA REPORTQ22018

TRILLIUMWEST Real Estate Brokerage is based out of Guelph, Ontario.All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

Median List Price

% Change

$534,900

$516,950

3.5% p

Number of Sales

96

102

5.9% q

New Inventory

139

174

20.1% q

Sales/New Ratio

0.69

0.59

17% p

Median Sale Price

$501,500

$524,500

4.4% q

% Change

$492,400

8.6% p

69

39% p

86

61.6% p

0.99

13.8% q

$475,000

5.6% p

Detached Homes

Town/Link Homes

Apartment/Condo

87

43

9

115

48

11

Total 139 174

0.69 0.59 Detached Town/Link Aprtmnt/Condo

$560,000 $387,500 $217,750

A return to a more familiar time.Typically an area of model consistency, since early 2017 West Guelph has been on a trip. Extremes were felt on both ends of the thermometer, but Q2 felt like that tumultuous ride might be coming to a close. According to the data, that is exactly what happened.

While inventory shortages still plague this part of the city, prices were only moderately affected Y/Y. While still down from the same period a year ago, the past few Q’s have seen that gap close rapidly. A 5.6% Q/Q increase in Q2 alone helped close the gap even further. The numbers say this roller coaster ride on the West-side might be coming to a close.

Neighbourhoods of West Guelph - Willow, Imperial South, Margaret Green, West Guelph

Visit TrilliumWest.com/neighbourhoods for a video vignette of West Guelph and individual neighbourhood profiles.

Sales to New Ratio

q

q

q

q

p

Q2 2018 | Total

Q2 2017 | Total

Q1 2018 | Total

54

64

34 32

86

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WESTGUELPH

Q2 | NEW INVENTORY Q2 | SALES BY INVENTORY TYPE

Q2 2018 Q2 2017 TREND Q2 2018 Q2 2017

DETACHED MEDIAN SALE APRTMNT/CONDO MEDIAN SALE

WEST GUELPH REVIEW

TOWN/LINK MEDIAN SALE

TRILLIUMWEST QUARTERLY DATA REPORTQ22018

TRILLIUMWEST Real Estate Brokerage is based out of Guelph, Ontario.All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

Median List Price

% Change

$486,000

$469,900

3.4% p

Number of Sales

60

75

20% q

New Inventory

77

109

29.4% q

Sales/New Ratio

0.78

0.69

13% p

Median Sale Price

$455,500

$470,000

3.1% q

% Change

$449,900

8% p

42

43% p

56

37.5% p

0.75

4% p

$455,500

=

Detached Homes

Town/Link Homes

Apartment/Condo

41

25

11

76

30

3

Total 77 109

0.78 0.69 Detached Town/Link Aprtmnt/Condo

$449,900 $450,000 $342,500

The slowest climb back in the city.If we filter through our previous reports, we really shouldn’t be surprised with the final Q2 data from North Guelph. When prices began to uncontrollably soar in 2017, the North-side was the slowest to react. As prices fell across the city and have since started to recover, North Guelph has also been the slowest to return to a more predictable level. The highest sales/new listing ratio in the city suggests that demand is high, things just take a little longer to adjust compared with other parts of the city.

Some fresh new home supply has arrived, that should help to feed some of the demand, but we also see prices remaining relatively consistent in North Guelph for a little while longer.

Neighbourhoods of North Guelph - Waverley Park, Riverside Park, Country Club, June Avenue, Guelph Lake

Visit TrilliumWest.com/neighbourhoods for a video vignette of North Guelph and individual neighbourhood profiles.

Sales to New Ratio

q

q

p

q

p

Q2 2018 | Total

Q2 2017 | Total

Q1 2018 | Total

27

46

25 2386

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Q2 | NEW INVENTORY Q2 | SALES BY INVENTORY TYPE

Q2 2018 Q2 2017 TREND Q2 2018 Q2 2017

DETACHED MEDIAN SALE APRTMNT/CONDO MEDIAN SALETOWN/LINK MEDIAN SALE

NORTH GUELPH REVIEW

NORTHGUELPHTRILLIUMWEST QUARTERLY DATA REPORTQ22018

TRILLIUMWEST Real Estate Brokerage is based out of Guelph, Ontario.All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

Q2 Report | 2018

About TRILLIUMWEST

At TrilliumWest, we take pride in studying and understanding the numbers of the Guelph real estate market. We are a hard-working group of marketing, investment, and sales professionals who love to look deeper into the data so that we can advise, educate, and assist our clients in achieving their real estate goals.

There is a difference. Visit us on-line and touch base to connect with a true local real estate professional.

REAL ESTATE. REAL INFORMATION.

Forecast for Q3 | 2018

Will sales take the summer off?The past couple of Q3’s were a bit of an exception in Guelph. Market activity pushed straight through a busy spring and continued to be strong into the summer months. While this might sound typical, and it is for many cities, it simply isn’t for Guelph. For decades you could count on Guelph sales seeing a strong surge in the spring and then somewhat head to the cottage for the summer. We say that more patient Q3 market is where we are headed.

A reduction in Y/Y sales volume shouldn’t see a rollback in Q/Q median sales prices. The recovery is on-track, it just might take a small breather this summer. Younger Buyers, this might be your cue to have it your way.

Don’t push it with your price.Sellers, this is the best advice we can give to you right now - try to ignore the neighbourhood market gossip and listen to your Realtor. Improperly priced homes are sitting and properly priced homes are still in many ways calling the shots. In a recovering market, smart Sellers work with the market, not against it. Talk to your Realtor.

The start of something bigger and better.This will be the final Guelph-specific quarterly report from TrilliumWest. Wipe those tears, we are moving on to something bigger and better. At the end of Q3 we will be releasing the inaugural edition of the TW Regional Report. City, township and all of the in-depth data and analysis you have come to expect from TrilliumWest. It’s the next step and we think you will love it even more.

Have a specific question on the upcoming market? We always welcome your opinions, questions, and feedback on how we can make this report better. Feel free to touch base and make use of our market knowledge. You can also chat with an agent LIVE at trilliumwest.com and get your ques-tions answered in real-time. Yes, very cool, we know.

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LOOKINGAHEADTRILLIUMWEST QUARTERLY DATA REPORTQ22018

TRILLIUMWEST Real Estate Brokerage is based out of Guelph, Ontario.All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.