Progress in development of GLobal EMEP MOdelling System (GLEMOS)

for HMs and POPs

15th TF MM meeting, 8-10 April 2014, Bologna, Italy

Alexey Gusev, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Olga Rozovskaya

Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East

Preparation of input information for the new EMEP domain (meteorological and geophysical data, emissions)

Global modelling using GLEMOS

Adaptation of GLEMOS for regional simulations in the new grid

Pilot simulations in the new grid with high spatial resolution and their evaluation

Refinement of GLEMOS parameterizations

Directions of further work

Current activities on implementation of the new EMEP grid (latitude/longitude)

TFMM, April 2014

Current EMEP domain

Current and New EMEP domains

New EMEP domain peculiarities (e.g. complex orography of Himalayas)

Generation of meteorological input

Land use/land cover information (consistency between EMEP Centres and WGE)

Data on reactants and aerosols in the atmosphere

Generation of data on sea currents

Data on underlying surface characteristics and vegetation (LAI, OM content, …)

Preparation of model input data for the new EMEP domain

TFMM, April 2014

Geophysical data (Orography)Geophysical data (Orography)

Meteorological input (Precipitation)Meteorological input (Precipitation)

Land cover (Forests and shrubs)Land cover (Forests and shrubs)

Emission data for regional modelling:

Time-series of gridded annual emissions

Intra-annual variations of emissions

Emissions to other environmental media

Speciation for Hg, congener composition for POPs

Vertical distribution

Secondary sources (re-suspension, re-volatilization)

Natural emissions

Preparation of emissions for HMs and POPs

TFMM, April 2014

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Em

issi

ons,

μg/

m2 /d

ay

Jan

DecNo vOct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

MayAp

r

Mar

Feb

B[a]P emissions (Czech Republic)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

TCD

F12

PeC

DF

23P

eCD

F14

HxC

DF

16H

xCD

F23

HxC

DF

19H

xCD

F78

HpC

DF

89H

pCD

FO

CD

FTC

DD

PeC

DD

4HxC

DD

6HxC

DD

7HxC

DD

HpC

DD

OC

DD

40%

PCDD/F emissions composition

PCDD/F emission(UNEP, 68 countries)

Land10%

Residue34%

Air45%

Water2%

Product9%

Preparation of emissions for HMs and POPs

TFMM, April 2014

0 0.1 0.3 1 3 10 30 100 g/km2/y 0 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.3 1 2 5 mg TEQ/km2/y

Hg

Global emission inventories:Global Hg emissions inventory for 2010 (AMAP/UNEP, 2013)

Global PCB emissions inventory for 1930-2100 (Breivick, 2007)

Global PCDD/F emissions inventory based on UNEP Toolkit, 1999-2009 (Fiedler et al., 2007, 2012)

Scenario of global HCB emissions 1945-2012 (MSC-E)

PCDD/Fs

Pollution of EMEP domain by global sources

Boundary conditions for EMEP domain

Initial concentrations in media within EMEP domain

Contributions of non-EMEP anthropogenic and secondary emissionsInfluence of EMEP emissions on other regions (e.g. Arctic)

TFMM, April 2014

EMEP pollution by different sources types

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pb Cd HgBaP

PCDD/FsHCBPCB

EMEPanthropogenic

Globalanthropogenic

Secondarysources

Hg deposition (2010)

EMEPEMEP

Global scale modellingprovides:

Simulated Hg annual deposition in 2010 (GLEMOS)

Intercontinental transport of HgSource-receptor modelling experiments (TF HTAP)

0

5

10

15

20

Hg

depo

sitio

nflu

x, g

/km

2 /y

North America

Europe

South AsiaEast Asia

South East AsiaAustralia and New Zealand

AfricaMiddle East

Mexico & Central AmericaSouth America

CIS countries

ArcticAntarctica

Source/receptor regions:

Source regions

Natural and legacy sources

TFMM, April 2014

Source apportionment of Hg deposition (2010)

Experimental modelling (in lat/lon projection) using UNEP Stockholm Convention data on PCDD/F emissions

National inventories of PCDD/F emissions of 68 countries (PCDD/F Toolkit)Expert estimates for other countries using regression analysisEmission inventories cover the period ~1999-2009Scenario of emissions includes PCDD/F releases to air and soil

EMEP pollution by PCDD/F global sources

TFMM, April 2014

PCDD/F air concentrations for 2012

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.5 10 50 fg TEQ/m3

EMEPEMEPOther 19%

EMEP Secondary

20%EMEP

Anthropogenic 61%

Contributions of EMEP and other sources

PCB-153 air concentrations for 2012

EMEP pollution by global PCB and HCB sources

TFMM, April 2014

0 0.02 0.07 0.12 0.25 0.5 1 2.5 pg/m3

0 3 7 14 22 50 80 100 pg/m3

HCB air concentrations for 2012

EMEPEMEP

EMEPEMEP

Other 33%

EMEP Secondary

56%

EMEP Anthropogenic

11%

Other 25%

EMEP Secondary

44%

EMEP Anthropogenic

31%

Contributions of EMEP and other sources

HCB

PCB-153

Simulated annual Hg deposition flux (July 2010)

Global(1°×1°)

Regional(0.2°×0.2°)

Pilot model simulations for Hg in the new EMEP grid

TFMM, April 2014

Map of simulated Hg wet deposition and comparison with EMEP measurements (July 2010)

Hg wet deposition (0.2°×0.2°) and locations of EMEP monitoring sites

Evaluation of pilot modelling results

TFMM, April 2014

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Observed, g/km2/y

Mod

elle

d, g

/km

2 /y

GlobalRegional

1:12:1

1:2

Global (1°x1°) and regional (0.2°x0.2°) Hg

wet deposition vs. EMEP measurements

There is ongoing work on the comparison with modelling results

for currently used EMEP domain

Hg modelled concentration vs. measurements at Waldhof (DE2)

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1.0

2.0

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DOY

Hg0 c

once

ntra

tion,

ng/

m3

Obs Model (global) Model (regional)Gaseous elemental Hg

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

DOY

Hg(

II)pa

rt co

ncen

tratio

n, p

g/m3

Obs Model (global) Model (regional)Particulate Hg

DE2

Location of Waldhof site

Underlying map – Hg anthropogenic emissions

(0.2°x0.2°)

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Comparison of hourly Hg concentration, January 2010

Evaluation of pilot modelling results

TFMM, April 2014

Location of Waldhof site

DE2

Underlying map – Hg anthropogenic emissions

(1°x1°)

Obs Model (1°x1°) Model (1°x1°)

Fine resolution modelling of HMs

TFMM, April 2014

Netherlands,  5x5 km2

Czech Republic, 5x5 km2

Croatia, 10x10 km2

Pb, Cd deposition in the Netherlands, Croatia, and

the Czech Republic

Country-specific case studies:

Preparation of fine scale model input data

Nesting from regional to local scale

Comparison of modelling results with fine resolution national measurements

Application of inverse modelling for the analysis of discrepancies

Improvement of model parameterizations when modelling with fine resolution

Further development of GLEMOSElaboration of multi-media model approach for Hg

General cycling of Hg in the oceanDevelopment of model parameterizations:

• Air-water exchange of Hg between the atmosphere and the ocean

• Hg oxidation and reduction under solar and dark conditions

• Hg adsorption by suspended particulate matter and colloids

• Methylation and demethylation(biotic and abiotic)

Literature survey of Hg processes in seawater is in press in Ocean Science Discussion (Batrakova et al., 2014)

TFMM, April 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1

C / C1

Hei

ght,

m Hg(II)gas

Hg(II)part

5 m

Lowest model layer

Further development of GLEMOSSub-grid vertical distribution of air concentration

Vertical profile of Hg content in airMotivation:

Significant vertical gradients of highly reactive species near the ground

Approach:

1)()( −++= )RRz(RzV cbadry

cbrefa

cbaref

RRRRRzRCzC

++++

=)()(

constzCzVzF drydry =⋅= )()()(

0

3

6

9

12

88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102

DOY

Hg(

II)ga

s, pg

/m3

ObservationsModel (1st layer)Model (5 m)

TFMM, April 2014

Further development of GLEMOSParameterizations of POP sorption on aerosols and degradation in

particulate phase

TFMM, April 2014

Sorbed on

mineral aerosol

10%

Gaseous

18%

Sorbed on OC40%

Sorbed on EC32%

Motivation:

Differences between modelled and measured seasonal air concentrations

Modifications:

• Inclusion of POP sorption mechanisms to different components of aerosol particles (mineral part, OC, EC)

• Inclusion of POP degradation in particulate phase Distribution of B[a]P in

air between different phases at 10 ºC

(background regions)

Further development of GLEMOS

TFMM, April 2014

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Measured, ng m-3

Mod

elle

d, n

g m

-3

0.5939 %Previous0.68-5 %Modified

CorrRel. bias

Improvement of agreement between modelled and measured B[a]P concentrations

B[a]P in air

Previous parameterizationsModified parameterizations

Parameterizations of POP sorption on aerosols and degradation inparticulate phase

Motivation:

Differences between modelled and measured seasonal air concentrations

Modifications:

• Inclusion of POP sorption mechanisms to different components of aerosol particles (mineral part, OC, EC)

• Inclusion of POP degradation in particulate phase

Preparation of GLEMOS for public use

GLEMOS features:Multi-scale consistent approach (from global to local)Multi-pollutant formulation (HMs, POPs, aerosol, ...)Multi-media model approachFlexible modular architecture

Base model domains: EMEP and global

Main components of distribution:Free access to the model code (GPLv3) Model documentation and user guideInput data for test model runsExamples of the model applications (Hg and POPs)Web portal for support of public access and use of the model by countries

TFMM, April 2014

GLEMOS

Simulated Hg annual deposition in 2010 (GLEMOS)

Dissemination of resultsSource attribution of Hg deposition to fishing areas (2010)

Hg

depo

sitio

n flu

x, g

/km

/y2

0

4

8

12

- Hg deposition flux

0

6

12

18

Fish

erie

s pr

oduc

tion,

x10

t/y

6

- Total marine capture fisheriesproduction (FAO, 2013)

FAO fishing areas

18 - Arctic Sea21 - Northwest Atlantic27 - Northeast Atlantic31 - Western Central Atlantic34 - Eastern Central Atlantic37 - Mediterranean and Black Sea41 - Southwest Atlantic47 - Southeast Atlantic48 - Antarctic Atlantic51 - Western Indian Ocean57 - Eastern Indian Ocean58 - Antarctic Indian Ocean61 - Northwest Pacific67 - Northeast Pacific71 - Western Central Pacific77 - Eastern Central Pacific81 - Southwest Pacific87 - Southeast Pacific88 - Antarctic Pacific

Dissemination of results

TFMM, April 2014

Results of Hg pollution assessment were used during preparation of UNEP Minamata Convention

Directions of further activities

Transition to the lat/lon grid with fine resolution

Improvement of ocean module and multi-media approach

Source apportionment of HM and POP pollution over longer periods (tagging of accumulation and media exchange)

Evaluation of secondary sources contributions (re-volatilization and re-suspension)

Focus of the assessment output on evaluation of HM and POP impacts on human health and ecosystems

Enhancement of co-operation with international organizations (UNEP Minamata and Stockholm Conventions, AMAP)

TFMM, April 2014