PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Bren School of Environmental Science & ManagementUniversity of California at Santa Barbara

http://www.gsdprogram.org

The Challenge of Change:Governing complex and dynamic marine socio-ecological systems

Oran R. Young

CLIOTOP Workshop – April 2007

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

CLIOTOP Emphases

• Themes– Change– Management/governance– Sustainability

• Goal– Integrated research projects

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Complex and Dynamic Systems

• The setting:– The systems we encounter in the real world often differ –

sometimes drastically – from those we commonly assume for purposes of analysis

• Major factors:– Nonlinearities and chaotic behavior– Sensitivity to initial conditions– Impacts of exogenous shocks– Thresholds, tipping points, and state changes– Emergent properties– Fast, irreversible, and often nasty changes

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Consequences

• Methodological implications

• Design implications

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Methodological Implications

• Many traditional methods of analysis are of limited value in such settings– Example: exploring links between a well-defined DV and

several IVs through applications of regression analysis• Methods capable of dealing with complex causality

become increasingly important– Systems analysis: simulations and sensitivity analysis– Scenarios: exploring future trajectories– Meta-analysis/configurational comparisons (e.g. QCA)– Case studies, counterfactuals, natural experiments

• We are not alone– Compare the circumstances of climate modelers

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Design Implications

One size does not fit all Designing governance systems to match the

principal features of specific marine systems

The diagnostic method – launching queries to determine what arrangements are needed in specific situations Discontinuous change? Sudden/surprising change? Irreversible change?

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Design Implications cont’d

Addressing change in complex systems Holistic, multi-sectoral analysis

Focusing only on fish/fishing will not suffice

Monitoring/early warning systems Targeting monitoring to critical points and building in redundancy

Rapid response capability Capacity to respond promptly when thresholds come into sight

(e.g. population collapses)

Flexibility and social learning The need to adjust institutions at a pace that keeps up with changes

in the relevant socio-ecological system

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Design Implications cont’d

Coping with uncertainty in complex systems• Precautionary approaches

– Locating the burden of proof

• Insurance schemes– Role of MPAs, no-take zones

• Heuristics/rules of thumb– Roles for traditional/informal ecological knowledge

– What the fishers know

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTBren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Conclusion

• The bad news– No simple/all-purpose prescription – the devil is in

the details

• The good news– Lots of scope for designing regimes that are well-

matched to specific situations