Air‐quality research to support shale‐gas regulation by the Environment Agency

Prof Roger TimmisProf. Roger TimmisLead Scientist, Air Quality & Radioactive SubstancesLead Scientist, Air Quality & Radioactive Substances

Environment Agency ResearchSHEER Conference 7 June 2017

Air quality research for shale gas regulationAir‐quality research for shale‐gas regulation

•Introduction: Risks, EA role, need for research A ti iti E i i I t•Activities, Emissions, Impacts

•Research issuesResearch issues•Example studiesp•Ongoing / Upcoming needs•Conclusions

Introduction:  Environmental risks from Shale GasFugitiveImpact on water resources Inadequate InadequateLocal air toxics &

Gas emissions S

Fugitive emissions e.g. methane, VOC

pfrom water used in hydraulic

fracturing

Inadequate transport or

processing of produced gas

Inadequate treatment/disposal of

drill cuttings

Local air toxics & disamenity,

Regional air quality

Water + sand + chemicals

To river or STW

to atmosphereProduction Platform

Storage tanks

Possible Aquifer

Water tableInadequate transport or treatment of waste waters

Confining

Contamination of soil, surface or

d t d tLayers

Production Zone

groundwater due to spills of chemicals or

return fluids

ZoneContamination of groundwater due to mobilization of solutes

or methane

Contamination of groundwater due to poor

well design or failure

Disposal of NORMs

Induced seismicity

Shale‐gas: Environment Agency Role• EA regulates shale sites to prevent, reduce & minimise harm• Protect air land water by permits for releases + abstractions• Protect air, land, water by permits for releases + abstractions• e.g. Preston New Rd: mining waste, groundwater, operations• Pre-operational measures e.g. Management/Monitoring Plan• Complements other authorities:Complements other authorities:

BEIS/OGA: exploration licensing HSE k l f t ll d i /i t itHSE: workplace safety; well design/integrityLocal authority: planning, air-quality management

• Proportionate regulation based up-to-date Science and BAT

Hydraulic fracturing raises new questions for research  • On-shore oil + gas has long history• 2152 conventional wells drilled 1902 -2152 conventional wells drilled 1902

2013; many closed.• Existing fields + experience in severalExisting fields + experience in several

areas e.g. Wytch Farm, Poole, nr. SSSIs.• BUT hydraulic fracturing is different• BUT hydraulic fracturing is different• US experience of HF has raised public

interest in UK; societal licence neededinterest in UK; societal licence needed • Research to inform understanding and

management of risks e g to air qualitymanagement of risks e.g. to air quality

Shale Gas: Potential impacts on Atmosphere & Air‐Quality

Greenhouse Gases Air Toxics Nuisance

NO P i l Od (H S)Methane, CO2

NO2, Particulates,VOCs, Benzene, CO

Odour (H2S), Grit/Dust

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Shale gas: Activities and air pollution emissions PHASE GEOMETRY DURATION DISCHARGE TYPEPHASE GEOMETRY DURATION DISCHARGE TYPE

Construction Exploration Point Area Continuous Controlled

Production Post-operation Line Intermittent Fugitive

ACTIVITY POLLUTANTSC O U S

Methane NOx VOCs CO Particulate

Well drilling + completionWell drilling + completion

Flaring (unburnt)

Combustion plantCombustion plant

Operational wells

Compressor plantCompressor plant

Road traffic

Flares Hydrocarbons

Air Quality Research issues

Dust Regional

Shale gas: Air quality issues needing EA researchTopic Need

Flares Real-world emissions + costs for different flare types

Hydrocarbons VOC species e.g. benzene; photochemical potential

Regional impact Scope future combined impact on regional air qualityg p p p g q y

Dust Quantify nuisance dust e.g. from stockpiles, handling

Baselines Statistical framework to detect and attribute changease es Stat st ca a e o to detect a d att bute c a ge

Emission factors Calibration of generic factors for UK conditions

Monitoring Adaptive hierarchy; shale-gas marker speciesMonitoring Adaptive hierarchy; shale gas marker species

Reporting Consistent procedures and like-for-like comparisons

Residual methane Quantify emissions from “abandoned” wellsResidual methane Quantify emissions from abandoned wells

NO2 compliance Quantify extra plume impacts in non-compliant areas

Flare emission and performance data from Differential pAbsorption LIDAR (DIAL) measurements

Fl l h i i b i l• Flares can lower atmospheric impacts by converting releases • Need combustion efficiency + emission data; but hard to measure • DIAL can help by measuring flare plumes remotely; but expensive• NPL have 30-year DIAL archive: 69 campaigns; including 29 flaresy p g ; g• DIAL archive reviewed for flare emission and performance data• Confirmed DIAL can measure flare emissions• Confirmed DIAL can measure flare emissions• But efficiency evaluation needs meta-data too e.g. on fuel, flow• Metadata template developed for use with future measurements

Measuring plume concentrations with Differential Absorption LIDAR

Standard Dial Measurement Configuration Section of hydrocarbons in ultracracker flare

Flare emission performance from DIAL measurements

NO2 from High pressure flare Ethane from High pressure flare

High Growth: 2160 wellsRegional Air Quality Study• Source – Pathway – Receptor

model for 2030 scenarios

• Compare base case (no shale) with high + low shale growth low shale growth

• Source: NW England shale emissions Low Growth: 270 wells(current technology)

• Pathway: hot summer (2006)• Pathway: hot summer (2006) meteorology (photochemistry)

• Receptor: monitoring sites, regional mapping, cf. standards

Regional AQ Results• Percent changes in concentrations

due to shale• Change in all UK regions; most

in NW England but small1-10%• NO2 and Particulates increase;

some Ozone decreasesP ti l t i b 1% f• Particulates increase by ~1% of standard

• NO increases up to 10% of

Change in monthly-average

• NO2 increases up to 10% of standard

• May affect regulation if air-qualityOzone for high shale growth

May affect regulation if air quality already poor

Baselines to detect & attribute air-quality change Baseline• Pre-activity survey = reference point for assessing changey y p g g• Affects change detection: threshold; level of confidence; time lag • Can’t retro-fit: “It’s Now or Never” (cf. US)Can t retro fit: It s Now or Never (cf. US)Attribution• Distinguish changes due to different factors e g shale; other• Distinguish changes due to different factors e.g. shale; other• Other factors e.g. meteorology, seasonal cycle, local trafficStatistical FrameworkStatistical Framework• Good operation and regulation will deliver “Nothing to report”

F k ti l t h ll lt lid d t ti• Framework essential to show null results are valid and protective15

BiscathorpeBaselineMonitoringMonitoringFeb-Sep 2016p

ParticulatesNitrogen oxidesNitrogen oxidesMethaneBTEX PAHBTEX PAH ~500m from PotentialPotentialOOG site

BiscathorpeBiscathorpe Baseline:Baseline:“Heat Map” of pdirection-mean

iconcentrations for 100 sectorsfor 10 sectorsand 8 pollutants

Monitoring: Research Issues Plans• Permits require Air Quality Monitoring PlansPermits require Air Quality Monitoring Plans• Main focus = ambient monitoring of fugitive pollutants• Plans need Strategy Baseline Analysis Attribution Reporting• Plans need Strategy, Baseline, Analysis, Attribution, Reporting• Use to assess: Compliance; Performance; Change; ChargingProportionate monitoring• Potentially many pollutants and time/space scales• Need proportionate approach: balance Risk and Cost• Need adaptive monitoring with hierarchy of methodsNeed adaptive monitoring with hierarchy of methods• Research: on options and costs for adaptive monitoring

Adaptive monitoring programme

ResidualMethane:H h How much methane leaks methane leaks from closed oil and gas wells ?

Ranked differences in methane ResidualA single siteresult

between well and control sites Methane

Relative to control site

102 sites in all

Residual MethaneResidual Methane

364 ± 677 kg CO eq/well/yearCO2eq/well/year

S l tSupplementary data online at http://dx doi org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.096.

22

nv.2015.12.096.

Ongoing / Upcoming Research Needs O iOngoing• Statistical Framework for Baselines and Change • Proportionate monitoring hierarchy• Impact of multiple sites on NO2 compliancep p 2 p• Protocol for reporting of monitoring dataUpcomingUpcoming• Flare options and performance data (DIAL)

l d k• VOC speciation, including marker species• Worked examples of monitoring strategy• “Before and After” comparisons at operating sites

Conclusions: Shale gas and air quality researchConclusions: Shale gas and air‐quality research

H d li f i i f i i• Hydraulic fracturing poses new questions for science + society• Past experience (e.g. in UK, US) does not give all the answers • Air-quality research is essential, but needs careful design• Wide range of topics, scales, methods, applicationsg p , , , pp• EA and others are prioritising and progressing studies• Research must be auditable well communicated responsive• Research must be auditable, well-communicated, responsive• Sharing research and experience builds confidence e.g. SHEER

Hearing what others say• “risks can be managed effectively, if operational best

practices are implemented & enforced by regulation”

– Royal Academy of Engineering/ Royal Society– Royal Academy of Engineering/ Royal Society

• “… risks to public health from exposure to emissions associated with the shale gas extraction process are low if operations are properly run and regulated.”

• “Good on-site management and appropriate regulation are essential ” Public Health England reportare essential. - Public Health England report

• “we recommend ..careful monitoring and inspection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions .. until a particular production technique is well understood..., in the context of UK”

• “a detailed scientific research programme of methane measurement aimed at better understanding and Regulation with Science-measurement, aimed at better understanding and characterising sources and quantities - DECC report

Regulation with Sciencebased understanding