Presentatie Kuyvenhoven, symposium 2011
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Transcript of Presentatie Kuyvenhoven, symposium 2011
Diverging developments in African and Asian agriculture?
Arie Kuyvenhoven WU School of Social Sciences
Africa: different from Asia?
Geographical divide? Gloomy picture true? Something inevitable about Africa? Agriculture first, as in Asia? New developments and initiatives Conclusions
Geography, institutions, governance
Low population density, weak infrastructure Diverse geography, agro-ecology and
climate Slavery, poor colonial legacies,
fractionalisation Cold war politics, HIV/AIDS Political elites undermining markets (rents)
and capturing public services (patronage)
Poor economics
Lack of market openness and rural social capital
High cost of risk and volatility Deficient public services and infrastructure Overregulated economies, biased against
rural interests, aggravated by a resource curse
Gloomy and inevitable?
Climate and geography pose special challenges, but can be mitigated by technology response
Adverse policies, weak institutions, and inappropriate governance matter more, but being man-made, can be changed
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Reality I
Roughly 300 million people are chronically hungry; 40% of the population is outright poor
Two thirds of SSA is rural and home to three quarters of the poor
33 million small farmers make up 80% of all farms and supply 90% of agricultural produce
Yields in SSA much below China and India
. Yields and poverty in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: WDR 2008
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Reality II
During the 80s and 90s donors and African governments pulled out of agricultural investment, in favour of
Short-term emergency and humanitarian food aid
Realization that agriculture matters in early development: because of its size, its poverty reducing effect, and its trade creation
Africa’s main challenge
Extensificaton rational and easy Agro-ecology makes R&D expensive Complementary action and policies
problematic: the co-ordination issue Challenge: how to raise productivity by
locally adapted interventions in packages of private and public investment: intensification
Asia and Africa compared Modern varieties are adopted in Africa,
but often not sustained Asia’s Green revolution: state-led, market-
driven, small-farmer based; food self-sufficiency for geo-political reasons; legitimacy based on progress in rural areas; policy contagion
Africa’s dilemma: extensification conventional wisdom; diverse agro-ecology; initial self-sufficiency; legitimacy linked to urban demands and large-scale cash crop farming
African advances are emerging
Changes in governance, transparency and participation are emerging
Positive micro-evidence on the adoption of new varieties
Macro data show a positive trend: 5% GDP and 3 % agricultural growth during 2000-08
Modern variety diffusion by decade
Source: InterAcademy Council
CAADP, AGRA, CGIAR, World Bank
Focus on policy and institutional incentives to make intensification work
A range of technical options for sustainable, high-yielding and more resilient African farming systems; imperative to maintain R&D
Pay attention to: infrastructure, micro-finance and rural credit, seed and fertilizer markets
Diversification out of agriculture? Different views
Conclusions
Special features: yes; inevitable: no; gloomy
picture: overdone Prominent role governance and aid efforts Two lessons Green Revolution:
(1) location- and time-specific packages of complementary interventions
(2) apply the right mix of disciplines