PREPARED BY: Serhan KÖSE - wmo. · PDF filePossible product state and potential amount of...
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AGROMETEOROLOGY PREPARED BY: Serhan KÖSE Turkish State Meteorological Service Research Department Agrometeorology Division
Transcript of PREPARED BY: Serhan KÖSE - wmo. · PDF filePossible product state and potential amount of...
AGROMETEOROLOGY
PREPARED BY:
Serhan KÖSE Turkish State Meteorological Service
Research Department
Agrometeorology Division
AGROMETEOROLOGY
It is the scientific study of livings’ reaction against
physical environment they live inside. It examines
environmental physical and biological phenomena
directed agricultural production.
The livings which are examined inside agrometeorology
are economically significant crops, livestocks and game
animals, insects and pathogenesis microorganisms.
• Application Areas
- Drought monitoring
- Selection of appropriate agricultural areas
- Water protection and irrigation controls
- Warnings about forest fires
- Planning of sowing and harvest dates
- Forecasting frost and protection against frost damage
- Protection of crops against pests and diseases
- Microclimatological changes (like windbreaks)
- Crop monitoring and yield forecast
- Impacts of climate change on agriculture
- Principal agrometeorological
stations
- Ordinary agrometeorological
stations
- Auxiliary agrometeorological
stations
- Agrometeorological stations for
specific purposes
KUZEY
• Agrometeorological Stations
• Studies in Agrometeorology Division
- Agricultural Forecast and Warnings
- Phenological Observations
- Drought monitoring
- Forecasting of Harvest Date
- Frost Forecast and Warnings (ZDUS)
- Crop Monitoring and Yield Forecast
- Observations via Semi-covered Screens
- Irrigation Planner System (SUBİS)
- Agrometeorological Bulletin
Agricultural Forecast and Warnings
- It is the forecast of actual and forthcoming conditions of agricultural products by evaluating meteorological parameters.
- The criterions which determine the conditions of agricultural products are subjects such as phenological dates, yield, their quality and quantity, amount of product.
- Agricultural phenological forecast is important in agriculture and specially in plannig agricultural production.
• Used Data
Agrometeorological forecast helps in benefitting from climate and weather conditions completely and rationally in agriculture.
Two types of data are used to compensate agrometeorological forecast:
1. Crop data (Any measurement about crop)
2. Environmental data (All properties about environment)
• Dealt Topics
- Generally, these topics are dealt in Agrometeorological
Forecasts:
1. Actual state of the product and potential yield forecast can be determined by using past weather data.
2. Yield quality and quantity can be indirectly calculated by using soil moisture forecasts.
3. Possible product state and potential amount of yield can be calculated by using probability distributions of important meteorological factors.
• Effective Climate Factors
- The top most important climate factors,
which directly or indirectly affect the production in agriculture affairs and direct the production are temperature, precipitation, sun radiation, humidity and wind. These factor affect the product in every stage from planning to marketing.
- Labor, product, input and time losses increase about the production which doesn’t consider climate factors, consequentially cost increases reasonably.
• Types of Agricultural Forecast
1. General Purpose Agricultural Forecast
2. Daily Agricultural Forecast
3. Weekly Agricultural Forecast
4. Monthly and Seasonal Agricultural Forecast
• Usage Areas of Agricultural Forecast
1. Sowing - Planting
2. Agricultural protection against diseases and pests
3. Drying
4. Stocking, Storage and Transport
5. Frost and Preventing Its Harms
6. Forest Fires
7. Irrigation
8. Agricultural Aviation
• Criterions of Agricultural Forecast
- Agricultural structure and potential of every region and consequentially seasonal properties and meteorological requirements of ongoing agricultural studies should be known very well to interpret and apply agrometeorological analysis.
- Every agricultural enterprise has climate requirements and factors which vary periodically. Every climate phenomenon and climate factor change affects agricultural applications positively or negatively. For instance, temperature fluctuation is very important in plant protection, germination and irrigation stages, however wind is important in disinfection, pollination, fruit formation, and harvest stages.
• Criterions of Agricultural Forecast
- Extreme climate events are always important for agriculture. The forecast of harmful and extreme climate events should be published during the year and every stage of growing.
- Topographical structure of some regions may be suitable for flood formation in effective precipitation, avalanche in spring, turning wind into storm and wind attack.
- Especially, the regions which densely contain greenhouses, vegetation growing and agriculture enterprises are damaged by sharp deviations of climate factors according to normal values.
• Forecasts of Agrometeorology Division
• 5-Days Forecast
- This forecast contains agricultural regions
acquired by The Ministry of Food, Agriculture
and Livestock.
- Official regions are shown on this map:
Map of 9 Agricultural Regions
• 5-Days Forecast
- Prospective values and variation of meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation, wind) which affect agricultural operations positively or negatively, inside the day and effects of these factors are published daily.
- For example, important factors are minimum temperature, wind, precipitation and cloudness in frost-phobic regions, wind, precipitation and temperature in disinfection periods and temperature, precipitation, humidity, cloudness and dew in drying periods.
• 5-Days Forecast
- Forecast which is produced by “Analysis and Numerical Forecast Division” helps to us in preparing 5-Days Forecast.
- The products of that division are weekly map and reports, Kalman temperature analysis, Meteograms, wind maps and MM5 maps.
- Long term normal and extreme values are used in order to realize comparative analysis.
Weekly Report with Map
Meteogram
of
Ankara
ECMWF Wind Forecast Map
• Publishing Agricultural Forecast - 5-days forecast: is published everyday on the
instutional webpage. 9 agricultural regions are prepared by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock.
Phenological Observations - Phenology is the science of examining various stages
which cover growing and development periods of plants and animals.
- There are several examples of these stages such as bud swelling in fruit trees, flowering, fruit forming and ripening, sowing in cereals, germination, tillering, heading, maturation and procreation, grazing, immigration (for birds), hibernation and lactation in animals.
- There is a strong relation between growing steps of
livings and climate. Every living shows different reactions
against alternating climate factors such as temperature,
wind, humidity and evaporation.
- Growing and development periods in the plants are
generally affected by weather, consequentially phenology
has a great importance in terms of agriculture.
Phenological Observations
- Date and period of growing stages of plants vary
according to climate. These stages are called as
phenological stages, the observations to determine
these stages are called as phenological observations.
• Importance of Phenological Observations
- With hilly and roughness topography in a country, it is
difficult to determine climate of that country.
- It is examined that different climate conditions (microclimate) rule behind every hill and mountain as a result of many observations. Growing cotton in Iğdır wherein a relatively cold region is an obvious example.
-Therefore determining climate widely and easily is only possible by understanding the effects of climate on plant growing.
• Importance of Phenological Observations
- Isophane maps drawn using phenological observations
inform fundemantally and strongly about the climate of
country.
- Isophane maps express climate around ideally, and helps
agriculture and climatology. Long observation period, dense
and wide observation web affects the help coming from
isophane maps.
• Usage Areas of Phenological Observations
1- Plant Improvement
2- Agricultural protection against diseases and pests
3- Agriculture techniques and planning
4- Cultural affairs (sawing, planting, irrigation, fertilization, etc.)
5- Choosing suitable varieties
5- Crop monitoring and yield forecasting
• Usage Areas of Phenological Observations
- Phenological observations on the cultural plants are also very important in improving plants. By means of phenological observations, determining early growing plant species and varieties, determining the varieties which can prevent the damages from early or late frost can be provided by phenological observations.
- Phenological observations guide to the time and formation of protection against plant pest and diseases.
Plant Phenological Period Maps
DROUGHT ANALYSIS
- While drought is often associated with land degradation, it is a natural phenomenon that occurs when rainfall is significantly below normal recorded levels for a long time, therefore causes negative effect on land and water sources and hydrological balance. (UNCCD 1997 – United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification).
- Among extreme events drought usually grows slowly, frequently shows a long continuity and affects a wide area however it has a less forecast possibility among atmospheric dangers.
• Qualifications of Drought
- Frequency
- Strength
- Duration
- Effected Area
• Attributes of Drought
- Indetermination of its start and end
- Cumulative increase
- Its effect on several sources at once
- Severe economical dimension
• Types of Drought
- 3 of them are prominent, although there are several
types of drought in the literary (Wilhite and Glantz 1987).
These are;
- Meteorological drought,
- Agricultural drought,
- Hydrological drought
• Meteorological Drought
- Meteorological drought is usually an expression of precipitation’s departure from normal over some period of time (generally 30 years). These definitions are usually region-specific and presumably based on a thorough understanding of regional climatology.
- Meteorological measurements are the first indicators of drought. An ongoing meteorological drought can quickly strengthen or immediately end. Drought period is defined as the number of days which amount of precipitation is under determined threshold.
• Agricultural Drought
- Agricultural drought occurs when there isn’t enough soil moisture to meet the needs of a particular crop at a particular time.
- Agricultural drought happens after meteorological drought but before hydrological drought.
- Agriculture is usually the first economic sector to be affected by drought.
- In agricultural drought, even underground is saturated, crop yield can dramatically decrease. High temperature, low relative humidity and dryer winds causes increase in the effect of precipitation shortfall.
• Hydrological Drought
- Hydrological drought is associated with the effects of periods of precipitation (including snowfall) shortfalls on surface or subsurface water supply (i.e., streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, ground water).
- The frequency and severity of hydrological drought is often defined on a watershed or river basin scale.
- Hydrological measurements are not first signs of drought, because there is a time between precipitation shortfalls and the level of subsurface water supply. Hydrological drought can last very late after meteorological drought ends.
• Impacts of Drought
- Drought has such a complex structure which affects several sectors of economy and carries these impacts beyond dry regions. Here, the reason is indispensability of water in production (NDMC 1995, National Drought Mitigation Center).
- Some direct impacts are shortage of agricultural products, grassland, forest and water level, increase in fires, death rate of brutes and pets and fish kinds. Some indirect impacts are decrease in incomes of farmers and agricultural companies, increase in food prices, crime rates, unemployment and migration.
Impacts of Drought
• Impacts of Drought
Economical Impacts - Costs and losses to agricultural producers
• Annual and perennial crop losses
• Damage to crop quality
• Income loss for farmers due to reduced crop yields
• Reduced productivity of cropland (wind erosion, long-term loss
of organic matter, etc.)
• Insect infestation
• Plant disease
• Wildlife damage to crops
• Increased irrigation costs
• Cost of new or supplemental water resource development
(wells, dams, pipelines)
• Impacts of Drought
Economical Impacts-Costs and losses to livestock producers
• Reduced productivity of rangeland
• Reduced milk production
• Forced reduction of foundation stock
• Closure/limitation of public lands to grazing
• High cost/unavailability of water for livestock
• Cost of new or supplemental water resource development (wells, dams,
pipelines)
• High cost/unavailability of feed for livestock
• Increased feed transportation costs
• High livestock mortality rates
• Disruption of reproduction cycles (delayed breeding, more miscarriages)
• Decreased stock weights
• Increased predation
• Range fires
• Impacts of Drought
Economical Impacts - Loss from timber production
• Wildland fires
• Tree disease
• Insect infestation
• Impaired productivity of forest land
• Direct loss of trees, especially young ones
- Loss from fishery production
• Damage to fish habitat
• Loss of fish and other aquatic organisms due to decreased flows
• Impacts of Drought
Economical Impacts - General economic effects
• Decreased land prices
• Loss to industries directly dependent on agricultural production
(e.g., machinery and fertilizer manufacturers, food processors,
dairies, etc.)
• Unemployment from drought-related declines in production
• Strain on financial institutions (foreclosures, more credit risk,
capital shortfalls)
• Revenue losses to federal, state, and local governments (from
reduced tax base)
• Reduction of economic development
• Fewer agricultural producers (due to bankruptcies, new
occupations)
• Rural population loss
• Impacts of Drought
Environmental Impacts - Damage to animal species
• Reduction and degradation of fish and wildlife habitat
• Lack of feed and drinking water
• Greater mortality due to increased contact with agricultural producers, as animals seek food from farms and producers are less tolerant of the intrusion
• Disease
• Increased vulnerability to predation (from species concentrated near water)
• Migration and concentration (loss of wildlife in some areas and too many wildlife in other areas)
• Increased stress to endangered species
• Loss of biodiversity
• Impacts of Drought
Environmental Impacts - Hydrological effects
• Lower water levels in reservoirs, lakes, and ponds
• Reduced flow from springs
• Reduced streamflow
• Loss of wetlands
• Estuarine impacts (e.g., changes in salinity levels)
• Increased groundwater depletion, land subsidence, reduced
recharge
• Water quality effects (e.g., salt concentration, increased water
temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity)
• Impacts of Drought
Environmental Impacts - Damage to plant communities
• Loss of biodiversity
• Loss of trees from urban landscapes, shelterbelts, wooded
conservation areas
• Impacts of Drought
Social Impacts - Health
• Mental and physical stress (e.g., anxiety, depression, loss of
security, domestic violence)
• Health-related low-flow problems (e.g., cross-connection
contamination, diminished sewage flows, increased pollutant
concentrations, reduced fire fighting capability, etc.)
• Reductions in nutrition (e.g., high-cost food limitations, stress-
related dietary deficiencies)
• Loss of human life (e.g., from heat stress, suicides)
• Public safety from forest and range fires
• Increased respiratory ailments
• Increased disease caused by wildlife concentrations
• Impacts of Drought
Social Impacts - Increased conflicts
• Political conflicts
• Water user conflicts
• Management conflicts
• Other social conflicts (e.g., scientific, media-based)
- Reduced quality of life, changes in lifestyle
• Increased poverty in general
• Population migrations (rural to urban areas, migrants into the United
States)
• Loss of aesthetic values
• Reduction or modification of recreational activities
• Impacts of Drought
Other Social Impacts
• Disruption of cultural belief systems (e.g., religious and scientific
views of natural hazards)
• Reevaluation of social values (e.g., priorities, needs, rights)
• Public dissatisfaction with government drought response
• Perceptions of inequity in relief, possibly related to socioeconomic
status, ethnicity, age, gender, seniority
• Loss of cultural sites
• Increased data/information needs, coordination of dissemination
activities
• Recognition of institutional restraints on water use
• Drought Analyses in
Agrometeorology Division
• Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
• Percent of Normal Index (PNI)
• Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
• Methods
- Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI): It is a drought index which can consider variance of precipitation shortage in different time periods (1,3, 6, 9,12, 24, and 48 months). Monthly precipitation arrays for at least 30 years are prepared, and SPI values are normalized. Then, dry and humid periods are determined for desired time period.
Classification of SPI Method
2017 February, 3 Monthly Drought Map
According to SPI
• Methods
- Percent of Normal Index (PNI): It is the most simple
drought index. It is calculated this way: actuel precipitation divided by normal precipitation and multiplied by 100 for a certain time peiod. Precipitation shortage in different time periods (monthly or yearly) can be calculated.
Classification of PNI Method
Number of
Months
Analyzed
Normal
(% of
Normal
Precipitation)
Watch (% of
Normal
Precipitation)
Warning
(% of
Normal
Precipitation)
Emergency
(% of
Normal
Precipitation)
1 >75.0 75.0 65.0 55.0
3 >75.0 75.0 65.0 55.0
6 >80.0 80.0 70.0 60.0
9 >83.5 83.5 73.5 63.5
12 >85.0 85.0 75.0 65.0
2013 February Monthly Drought Map
According to PNI
• Methods
- Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI):a
measurement of dryness based on recent precipitation and temperature. It is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture. Supply is comparatively straightforward to calculate, but demand is more complicated as it depends on many factors - not just temperature and the amount of moisture in the soil but hard-to-calibrate factors including evapotranspiration and recharge rates. Palmer tried to overcome these difficulties by developing an algorithm that approximated them based on the most readily available data — precipitation and temperature.
Classification of PDSI Method
2013 February, Monthly Drought Map
According to PDSI
Drought Monitoring System (KIS 2.0)
- Gathering total temperature whom crops require to complete standard grow and development in a life time, forecasting of harvest date by the aid of this temperature value,
- Can be used to calculate the vegetative period required to be able to determine suitable sowing regions of crops in our country.
- For the purpose, “Forecasting of Harvest Date” program is developed and is presented to the related people on the institutional webpage.
FORECASTING OF HARVEST DATE
Forecasting of Harvest Date Program
Forecasting of Harvest Date Program
- One of the most significant duties of Agrometeorology is to help in protecting crops in different stages from bad climate damage.
- Generally speaking, frost can be defined as a meteorological phenomenon which occurs by the decreasing of weather temperature below 0 °C (at screen level)
- Amongst damages which occur by the effect of the meteorological factors, frost, which sometimes arises during growing periods of crops, has a great significance.
- Frost damages any crop variably according to type and growing condition of that crop. For example, below -15 °C, cracking starts at the body and shelf of the trees. Olive trees withers in maximum 1 or 2 hours at -10 °C.
- Mostly, early waking fruit trees, banana and citrus trees, vegetable seedlings, foliage plants in the greenhouses, and early-vegetables are damaged by frost.
FROST WARNINGS
• Frost Warnings
- Studies of frost warnings start with early fall frosts and
end with late spring frosts.
- Risk maps of agricultural frost for 4-days are prepared
and published on institutional website everyday.
- To this end, “Agricultural Frost Early Warning System”
program is developed and presented on the institutional
webpage for the people whom concern.
Agricultural Frost Early Warning System
Frost Risk Map
- Cereals are taken into account with economically important crops in yield forecast. Cereal is the most produced crop according to either sowing area or its weight in trade, in the world.
- Yield forecast is economically most important one amongst agrometeorological forecasts. At most country, the relationship between yield amount and environmental factors (meteorological, biological, topographical) can be calculated using several models and statistical correlations, soon.
- Crop simulation models are used to be able to analyze better the relationship between specifically crop and soil. The effects of meteorological factors on agricultural operations can be evaluated better by using crop simulation models.
Crop Monitoring and Yield Forecast
• Simulation Model (AgroMetShell)
- Strengthening the Crop Yield and Production Forecasting Capability - (TCP/TUR/3002) supported by FAO, successfully carried on from 2005 to 2006 and completed as a cooperative study between Turkish State Meteorological Service and Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock.
- The background required for crop monitoring and yield forecast is created after project conclusion. Yield forecast of 2007 is also completed into this extent and is published on the institutional webpage as a bulletin.
Map of Stations
AgroMetShell(AMS) 1.51 Version Homepage
WSI Index Calculated By AMS
Crop Yield Forecast Map
IRRIGATION PLANNER SYSTEM
Program was developed for planning of irrigation time which is used by farmers and reserchers as desicion support system.
Daily rainfall and referance evapotranspiration values used as input to calculate daily water balance.
Evapotranspiration is the sum of evaporation from surface and transpiration from leaves which is calculated by FAO Penman-Monteith Formula.
Irrigation Planner System
• Evaporation is the process whereby liquid water is converted to water vapour (vaporization) and removed from the evaporating surface (vapour removal). Water evaporates from a variety of surfaces, such as lakes, rivers, pavements, soils and wet vegetation.
• Transpiration consists of the vaporization of liquid water contained in plant tissues and the vapour removal to the atmosphere. Crops predominately lose their water through stomata. These are small openings on the plant leaf through which gases and water vapour pass.
• The concept of the reference evapotranspiration was introduced to study the evaporative demand of the atmosphere independently of crop type, crop development and management practices. As water is abundantly available at the reference evapotranspiring surface, soil factors do not affect ET. Relating ET to a specific surface provides a reference to which ET from other surfaces can be related. It obviates the need to define a separate ET level for each crop and stage of growth. ETo values measured or calculated at different locations or in different seasons are comparable as they refer to the ET from the same reference surface.
Irrigation Planner System
Irrigation Planner System
• Daily and cumulative rainfal, daily and cumulative evapotranpiration
values listed in a table.
• Cumulative rainfal and cumulative evapotranpiration summed in the last
column. If there is water excess, the value is positive and if there is water
deficit, the value is negative. The negative values show the irrigation
amount in mm.
•Water balance calculated for grass reference evapotranpiration (ETo). In
order to calculate crop evapotranpiration (ETc), ETo multiplied by Kc. You
can get the Kc values for different crops from FAO 56.
The Calculation of the Humidity
Indeks Program
Plant Harddness Zone Map
- The products which are results of the studies in “Research
Department” are combined as a monthly bulletin and published on
the institutional webpage.
- This bulletin includes precipitation, temperature and drought
analysis, extreme events, crop monitoring and yield forecast and
regional reports of agricultural situation.
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN
Agrometeorological Bulletin of
March 2013
