PREAKNESS STAKES - TwinSpires.com STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE...

PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE PREAKNESS

CONTENTS 3 Betting Guide Overview

4 How to Read a Past Performance

5 Expert Picks

6 Top Contender Bios

7 Kentucky Derby Superfecta Payout

8 Three-Year-Old Debuts

9 Preakness Tipsheet

10 Alternative View or Alternative Universe?

BETTINGGUIDEPREAKNESS STAKES


ALWAYS DREAMING SEEKS TO JOIN BIG CAST OF KENTUCKY DERBY-PREAKNESS WINNERSby James Scully

Always Dreaming put his speed to good use at Churchill Downs, posting a 2 ¾-length decision in the Kentucky Derby, and supporters are confident he can stretch his win streak to five in the 142nd running of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes.

History shows it’s very doable. In the last 40 years, Kentucky Derby winners have won at a 40% clip in Baltimore (15-for-37 with three missing the race).

Memories of Nyquist, who had his Triple Crown hopes dashed when weakening to third as the 3-5 favorite in the 2016 Preakness Stakes, may still be fresh for horse racing fans but the two previous Kentucky Derby victors, American Pharoah and California Chrome, easily captured the second leg of the American Triple Crown.

When you add in 2012 Kentucky Derby scorer I’ll Have Another, three of the last five have held suit following the two-week turnaround. From 1997-2004, six-of-eight horses completed the Kentucky Derby-Preakness double.

And six of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners who failed in the Preakness -- Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Street Sense (2007) and Giacomo (2005) – were off-the-pace types. Always Dreaming’s front-running style rates as an advantage.

He’s a threat to lead wire-to-wire and tractable enough to sit just off a hot pace if necessary.

Always Dreaming must still get past the competition including troubled-trip Classic Empire, the 2-year-old champion and Kentucky Derby morning line favorite, but the Kentucky Derby winner remains eligible to deliver his best at Pimlico.

KY DERBY WINNER PREAKNESS ODDS RESULT

Nyquist 3-5 3rd

American Pharoah 4-5 1st

California Chrome 1-2 1st

Orb 3-5 4th

I’ll Have Another 3-1 1st

Animal Kingdom 2-1 2nd

Super Saver 9-5 8th

Mine That Bird 6-1 2nd

Big Brown 1-5 1st

Street Sense 6-5 2nd

Barbaro 1-2 DNF

Giacomo 6-1 3rd

Smarty Jones 3-5 1st

Funny Cide 9-5 1st

War Emblem 5-2 1st

Monarchos 2-1 6th

Fusaichi Pegasus 1-5 2nd

Charismatic 8-1 1st

Real Quiet 5-2 1st

Silver Charm 3-1 1st

Grindstone Non-starter -

Thunder Gulch 7-2 3rd

Go for Gin 5-2 2nd

Sea Hero 4-1 5th

Lil E. Tee 4-1 5th

Strike the Gold 9-5 6th

Unbridled 8-5 2nd

Sunday Silence 2-1 1st

Winning Colors 9-5 3rd

Alysheba 3-5 4th

Ferdinand 3-1 2nd

Spend a Buck Non-starter -

Swale 4-5 7th

Sunny’s Halo 1-1 6th

Gato Del Sol Non-starter -

Pleasant Colony 3-2 1st

Genuine Risk 2-1 2nd

Spectacular Bid 1-9 1st

Affirmed 1-2 1st

Seattle Slew 2-5 1st

LAST 40 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS PREAKNESS RESULTS


1 14

5 18

9 22

2 15

6 19

10 23

3 16

7 20

11 24

13 26

4 17

8 21

12 25

BRIS Pace and Speed Pars

Jockey Stats

Trainer Stats

Dam Stats

Sire Stats

Sales Stats

Horse’s Pedigree, Sales & Breeding Information

BRIS Prime Power Rating

Run Style Stats

BRIS Pedigree Rating

Medication, Equipment, and Weight the Horse Will Carry

Horse’s Lifetime Start Information

Owner & Jockey Silks

Positive and Negative Comments

Date of Race, Track, and Race Number

Surface, Distance, and Track Conditions

Fractional Times of Leader, Final Time, and Age Designation

BRIS Race Rating and Class Rating

Race Type

BRIS Pace and Speed Ratings

Post Position, Placement Throughout Race, and Finish

Jockey and Weight

Medication, Equipment, and Odds

Top Finishers, Comment, and Number of Starters

Workouts

BRIS Race Shapes

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10

11

2

14

15

25

16 17 18 18

19 20 20 21 24

22 23

26

13

3

79

812

4

5

6

HOW TO READA PAST PERFORMANCE

TWINSPIRES CUSTOMERS GET FREE BRISNET PPs FOR TRACKS THEY WAGER ONThe Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs are the most detailed past performance product on the market and include speed ratings, pace figures, exclusive Prime Power and Class ratings, detailed jockey and trainer statistics, and pedigree information. Start using Ultimate PPs and discover why Brisnet.com is the handicapper’s edge.


PIMLICO SPECIAL (G3)

THE LONGINES DIXIE STAKES (G2)

PREAKNESS STAKES (G1)

JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT

SIR BARTON STAKES

BLACK-EYED SUSAN (G2)

FRIDAY, MAY 19 Pimlico Race Course

SATURDAY, MAY 20 Pimlico Race Course

6 Shaman Ghost

1 Dolphus

9 Conquest Windycity

6 Shaman Ghost

3 Watershed

1 Dolphus

6 Shaman Ghost

5 Noble Bird

1 Dolphus

6 Shaman Ghost

9 Conquest Windycity

7 Name Changer

3 Watershed

6 Shaman Ghost

7 Name Changer

2 World Approval

9 Conquest Typhoon

7 Blacktype

4 Projected

2 World Approval

8 Catapult

4 Projected

9 Ring Weekend

7 Blacktype

2 World Approval

9 Ring Weekend

4 Projected

4 Projected

2 World Approval

7 Blacktype

5 Classic Empire

6 Gunnevera

1 Multiplier

5 Classic Empire

4 Always Dreaming

1 Multiplier

10 Conquest Mo Money

4 Always Dreaming

5 Classic Empire

5 Classic Empire

4 Always Dreaming

3 Hence

4 Always Dreaming

3 Hence

5 Classic Empire

4 Pay Any Price

10 Richard’s Boy

7 Grand Candy

2 Amelia’s Wild Ride

10 Richard’s Boy

4 Pay Any Price

6 Take Cover

8 Uncle Youdge

10 Richard’s Boy

6 Take Cover

10 Richard’s Boy

5 Ben’s Cat

10 Richard’s Boy

7 Grand Candy

5 Ben’s Cat

2 Hedge Fund

5 No Mo Dough

6 Watch Me Whip

2 Hedge Fund

9 Time To Travel

6 Watch Me Whip

5 No Mo Dough

2 Hedge Fund

9 Time To Travel

6 Watch Me Whip

2 Hedge Fund

5 No Mo Dough

2 Hedge Fund

6 Watch Me Whip

5 No Mo Dough

1 Shimmering Aspen

5 Lights Of Medina

7 Moana

6 Corporate Queen

8 Torrent

9 Summer Luck

5 Lights Of Medina

3 Dancing Rags

7 Moana

1 Shimmering Aspen

4 Full House

9 Summer Luck

5 Lights Of Medina

7 Moana

10 Actress

Ed DeRosa@EJXD2

Ed DeRosa@EJXD2

James Scully@James_Scully111

James Scully@James_Scully111

Nicolle Neulist@RogueClown

Nicolle Neulist@RogueClown

Kellie Reilly@GallantFox1930

Kellie Reilly@GallantFox1930

Vance Hanson@VPHanson

Vance Hanson@VPHanson

EXPERT PICKS FOR PREAKNESS STAKES WEEKEND

We’ve assembled an expert team of handicappers to give their top picks for each graded stakes race for both Black-eyed Susan and Preakness days.

GALLORETTE STAKES (G3) 10 Cambodia

7 Elysea’s World

6 On Leave

2 Zipessa

7 Elysea’s World

6 On Leave

6 On Leave

7 Elysea’s World

2 Zipessa

6 On Leave

7 Elysea’s World

2 Zipessa

3 Danilova

6 On Leave

5 Gone Away


PREAKNESS STAKES TOP HORSES

ALWAYS DREAMINGOwner: Brooklyn Boyz Stables Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher Jockey: John R. Velazquez

Unbeaten at three, the Todd Pletcher-trained son of Bodemeister lived up to the potential he showed in the Florida Derby with a superb Kentucky Derby victory. Always Dreaming has early speed and a great turn of foot that he unleashed at the top of the stretch to take him to Derby victory. That combination usually works well in the Preakness Stakes as well. Is he good enough to keep the Triple Crown alive? Many think he is.

CLASSIC EMPIREOwner: John C. Oxley Trainer: Mark E. Casse Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux

Last season’s champion 2-year-old male has had a difficult sophomore season, punctured with injuries and training difficulties. Some hard work and clever thinking from trainer Mark Casse got him back on track and he bounced back to win the Arkansas Derby, but his troubles continued in the Kentucky Derby when he was badly bumped at the start. His effort to finish fourth that day was an extremely worthy one. The big question is what he’s capable of if he gets a clean run.

CONQUEST MO MONEYOwner: Judge Lanier Racing Trainer: Miguel Hernandez Jockey: Jorge Carreno

The most interesting Preakness runner that didn’t contest the Kentucky Derby is arguably this $8,500 yearling from New Mexico. After winning his first three starts, Conquest Mo Money ran second in the Sunland Derby before putting up a fantastic effort from on the speed in the Arkansas Derby, beating all but Classic Empire, relegating Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee to third. Not nominated for the Triple Crown, his connections have put up $150,000 to run here. He may well be good enough to earn it back.

LOOKIN AT LEEOwner: L and N Racing, LLC Trainer: Steve M. Asmussen Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie

Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, second in the Kentucky Derby: Lookin At Lee knows how to perform on thoroughbred racing’s biggest stages. The Steve Asmussen-trained son of Lookin At Lucky made up many lengths along the rail in the Derby and was the only horse within seven lengths of Always Dreaming at the finish. The shorter distance of the Preakness may not suit him, but he should be making up ground when the others are tiring.

HENCEOwner: Calumet Farm Trainer: Steve M. Asmussen Jockey: Florent Geroux

Hence was favored by some for the Kentucky Derby after his Sunland Derby win was made to look very good by the efforts of those he beat: runner-up Conquest Mo Money finished second in the Arkansas Derby, third-place finisher Hedge Fund was runner-up in the Illinois Derby, and fourth-place finisher Irap won the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished 10th but reportedly didn’t enjoy the wet conditions. With a dry track, he could be more than just a second string for Steve Asmussen.

Even after winning the Kentucky Derby with Super Saver in 2011, trainer Todd Pletcher faced criticism that he couldn’t win the Kentucky Derby.

The certain future Racing Hall of Fame conditioner brought a 1-for-45 mark into this year’s Run for the Roses, and hit paydirt, running his record to 2-for-48 following Always Dreaming’s victory in America’s most prestigious race (his other two runners—Tapwrit and Patch—finished 6th and 14th, respectively).

Pletcher has yet to win the Preakness Stakes, but he does not have a reputation for futility in the second jewel of U.S. Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown in part because he has started so few horses. Pletcher’s 48 Derby starters have come in 17 editions of the race with 2003 the only year he’s missed since saddling four starters in 2000.

Pletcher’s 8 Preakness starters, however, have come in that same 18-year period but only occurred in six editions of the race, and only Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver was favored. In fact, before this year, Super Saver was the only one of Pletcher’s 75 starters in a Triple Crown race to go favored.

Pletcher will certainly have the Preakness favorite this year, as winning Kentucky Derby favorite Always Dreaming will again be the public’s choice, but is he a good bet?

From the perspective of the trainer, forget his record in these types of races. Sure, 0-for-8 in the Preakness and 4-for-78 in Triple Crown races sounds lousy, but this is unquestionably one of the best trainers currently in the game and maybe of all time. Handicapping Pletcher’s chances in this race needs to be more about the horse than the trainer. If Pletcher has the horse, then he has a chance to win. That is, not every one of his 78 Triple Crown starters (and especially not every one of his 48 Derby starters) were in the best spot to win, but these are the races owners want to run in.

So does Always Dreaming fit? Of course. Does he fit at even money? That’s a trickier question.

The only other time Pletcher had the Derby winner at the Preakness—Super Saver in 2010—he ran against champion two-year-old male Lookin At Lucky, who was the beaten favorite in the Derby potentially hampered by his rail post position. It’s a familiar storyline to Classic Empire, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, who had an eventful Derby trip, knocked around at the start before having to race wide. Always Dreaming was best on Derby day, but a fast track at Pimlico Race Course and suspected cleaner trip might be a reason to take double or triple the price on Classic Empire.

The above has nothing to do with the trainer, of course, which is why Pletcher’s statistics in these races is more a talking point than a handicapping angle.


PLETCHER & THE PREAKNESS:NO WINS BUT DOES IT MATTER?by Ed DeRosa

YEAR NAME ODDS-1 FINISH PREVIOUS START

2016 Stradivari 8.00 4th Lexington Stakes (1st)

2011 Dance City 11.50 5th Arkansas Derby (3rd)

2010 Super Saver 1.90 8th Kentucky Derby (1st)

2010 Aikenite 30.00 10th Derby Trial (2nd)

2009 Take the Points 18.00 13th Santa Anita Derby (4th)

2007 Circular Quay 6.00 5th Kentucky Derby (6th)

2007 King of the Roxy 14.20 6th Santa Anita Derby (2nd)

2000 Impeachment 19.10 3rd Kentucky Derby (3rd)

TODD PLETCHER’S PREAKNESS STARTERS


NEW SHOOTERS FOR PREAKNESSby Vance Hanson

In the days immediately after the Kentucky Derby (G1), speculation quickly turns to which Derby starters will be joining the winner of the roses two weeks later in the Preakness (G1) at Pimlico. Also of interest are which “new shooters,” or horses that did not run in the Kentucky Derby, will contest the 1 3/16-mile classic in Baltimore.

The so-called “new shooters” have a low level of success reaching the Preakness winner’s circle – only seven in the last 50 years have won – but they’ve often enhanced the value of Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas. The odds might be against this year’s group knocking off Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, and the like, but several should be given a close look by vertical exotics players.

After the unfortunate defection of Royal Mo last weekend after suffering a fractured sesamoid during a workout at Pimlico, the list of “new shooters” for the Preakness stood at five. Multiplier might possess a pedigree more worthy of a sprinter (he’s by The Factor and out of Trippi mare), but his performance in last month’s 1 1/8-mile Illinois Derby (G3) at Hawthorne suggested he was just getting warmed up at that distance. He also earned an imposing 104 Brisnet Speed Rating for that win. Cloud Computing, meanwhile, will be making only his fourth career start in the Preakness. The Chad Brown trainee has plenty of upside having finished second in the Gotham (G3) and a distant third in the Wood Memorial (G2) following his debut win in mid-February.

The other projected “new shooters” arguably have form to find. Senior Investment rebounded nicely to win the Lexington (G3) last time, but was a non-factor two back in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), the form of which was not flattered in the Kentucky Derby. Conquest Mo Money, who suffered his first career defeat in the Sunland Derby (G3) to Hence, is expected to be a prominent pace player, but with Always Dreaming likely to be within close range there’s a question of how long he’ll last while stepping up in trip. Term of Art was well beaten in all of Santa Anita’s classic preps, would be a major shock for trainer Doug O’Neill, who won the Preakness with Derby winner I’ll Have Another in 2012.

HORSE TRAINER

Cloud Computing Chad Brown

Conquest Mo Money Brendan Walsh

Multiplier Miguel Hernandez

Senior Investment Kenny McPeek

Term of Art Doug O’Neill

NEW SHOOTERS FOR PREAKNESS

Conquest Mo Money in the 2017 Sunland Derby


142ND RUNNING OF THE PREAKNESS STAKESThe Preakness Stakes (Gr 1)1 3/16-MilesPURSE $1,500,000

Multiplier 30-1

Cloud Computing 12-1

Hence 20-1

Always Dreaming 4-5

Classic Empire 3-1

Gunnevera 15-1

Term Of Art 30-1

Senior Investment 30-1

Looking At Lee 10-1

Conquest Mo Money 15-1

POST HORSE ML ODDS

5 Classic Empire

4 Always Dreaming

1 Multiplier

TOP PICKS

4 over 1,2,9,10 ($20)

$5 EXACTAS

5 over 4 ($25)

$25 EXACTAS

5 over 4 over 1,2,9,10 ($8)

4 over 1,2,9,10 over 5 ($8)

$2 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL

4,5 over 1,2,4,5,9,10 over 1,2,5,9,10over 1,2,9,10 ($42)

$.50 SUPERFECTA PART-WHEEL

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Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming was installed the 4-5 morning line favorite for the Preakness, which seems about right given the likelihood he will work out a trip as smooth at Pimlico as he had two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. If you like him to repeat, and you don’t necessarily like Classic Empire to finish second, then whatever exacta and trifecta combination you play is likely to pay well even with an odds-on favorite on top.

On the other hand, conceding the Preakness to a heavy favorite who enjoyed a dream trip in the Derby isn’t always the best bet. Street Sense, in 2007, is a notable example. Classic Empire arguably ran the best race of any Derby also-ran, finishing fourth after getting side-swiped at the start and rallying wide on the worst part of the track in the final half-mile. The reigning juvenile champion had physical issues earlier in the year that complicated his journey to Louisville, but seems to be over them. With a fair trip, he has the talent to make 3-1 look like a bargain.

We’ll make our primary bets with Classic Empire on top and saver ones with Always Dreaming in the first slot. We’ll include Derby runner-up Lookin at Lee, who also enjoyed a favorable trip at Churchill, in our vertical exotics along with “new shooters” Multiplier, Cloud Computing, and Conquest Mo Money.

brisnet.compowered by

TWINSPIRES TIPSHEET


ALTERNATIVE VIEW OR ALTERNATIVE UNIVERSE?by Glen Atkinson

In the aftermath of the Kentucky Derby there is legitimate speculation that Always Dreaming is a potential candidate to achieve the Triple Crown. Proponents point to his ability to make his own race shape, his continued high energy levels, and forwardly placed Kentucky Derby winners tend to win the Preakness.

If he accomplishes this difficult task there would be plenty of markers along the way that would make you think that it was obvious all along.

However, it does not take a very long memory to recall that there are often similar projections for other Derby winners—like Nyquist last year or Orb in 2013. Then after the Preakness loss the hype of Derby winners is soon relegated to a smaller place in history. Media groupthink can change overnight.

\Always Dreaming’s Preakness odds will likely hover around even money, and I have reasons to propose an alternative outcome of the race.

Classic Empire’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Brisnet.com Speed Rating was 108, a lot higher than Always Dreaming’s Florida Derby best of 102 and his 100 in the Derby. The only other recent Derby winners as low as 100 was American Pharoah in 2015 and Giacomo in 2005. The former went on to win the Triple Crown, the latter finished third in the Preakness behind Afleet Alex and Scrappy T.

I’m going to hang my hat on the notion that had he not been nearly knocked off his feet at the start, Classic Empire would have beaten Always Dreaming in the Kentucky Derby.

Both Classic Empire and Always Dreaming like to be forwardly placed close up or on the lead. However, in 14 of the last 15 Preakness Stakes one of the exacta horses has been an off the pace type.

So, if Classic Empire were the winner then the place horse could well be other than Always Dreaming (and for wagering purposes, the vice versa of that could offer value as well—i.e. if Always Dreaming wins then Classic Empire might not complete the exacta).

The Preakness has a long history of off the pace longshots hitting the superfecta over the past fifteen years, some with low speed figures, either placing like Magic Weisner 46-1, Macho Again 40-1, Tale Of Verve 28-1, Cherry Wine 17-1, or many times filling out the lower rungs.

Multiplier, a lightly raced closer, recorded a Brisnet.com Speed Rating of 104, improving 11 points in the Illinois Derby and higher than any number Always Dreaming has earned. Senior Investment, a low speed figure closer from big-race trainer McPeek is improving. You could fill in any of the other closers that you fancy among Lookin At Lee, Hence, Gunnevera, Cloud Computing, or reach for the stars with Term of Art.

For the exotics I’m going to single Classic Empire/Multiplier, Senior Investment, Gunnevera, Hence, Lookin At Lee/Always Dreaming.

An Alternate Universe indeed.

– Glen Atkinson is a horseplayer based in Bowling Green, Kentucky, who counts Brisnet.com’s ALLWAYS software among his handicapping arsenal. Follow him on Twitter @GlennedUp

MAKING A CASE FOR ALWAYS DREAMING OR CLASSIC EMPIRE OUT OF THE SUPERFECTANEW SHOOTERS FOR PREAKNESS

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