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Transcript of Pratelli, Petri, Rindone & De Bari - input2012
Prof. Antonio Pratelli
A feasibility study for new transport
connections between Italia and Algeria
A feasibility study for new transport
connections between Italia and Algeria
Seventh International Conference on
10-12 May 2012
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Archit., Univ.of Cagliari (Italy)
Informatics and Urban and Regional Planning
Polo Sistemi Logistici di Livorno - Laboratorio LOGIT,
University of Pisa
Prof. Antonio Pratelli
Eng. Massimiliano Petri
Doct. Corrado Rindone
Doct. Francescalberto de Bari
The present study is part of the Executive Scientific Project 2 in the
ItalMed Project which aim is to elaborate feasibility studies for new
transport connections between Italia and Algeria.
AIM
INTRODUCTION
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
AIM
The main objective of the study is to increase the degree of economic
integration of the two countries’ production systems through
improving commercial exchanges and direct investments by Italian
companies in Algeria.
THE STUDY
The analysis is divided in four parts:
1) Definition of hypothesis of scheduled services between Italian
ports/airports and Algeria;
2) Comparative analysis of the competitiveness of hypothetical
INTRODUCTION
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
2) Comparative analysis of the competitiveness of hypothetical
scheduled services in relation to existing services;
3) Estimation of the potential demand for the scheduled services
envisaged in the project;
4) Analysis of present and future constraints to the development of the
proposed routes.
In this presentation only the first and third part where described for
their geographical and modeling approach.
ALGERIAN ECONOMY
Algerian economy is nowadays based on production and manufacture of
hydrocarbons (natural gas and oil).
Natural gas fields are almost inexhaustible so that they ensure the future
continuity of the most important item in the budget of the country.
INTRODUCTION
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
In the last years the value of italian export to Algeria is increasing while import
of Algerian goods to Italy is fluctuating.
Among Italian exports to Algeria there are thermal and hydraulic turbines and
other machines that produce mechanical energy.
The Algerian government is generally committed to open the country's
economy and attract more foreign investment, particularly in areas not related
to hydrocarbons. The expansion of the construction sector should be guided
by the government program to improve infrastructure and building economic
expansion for the growing young population.
ALGERIAN ECONOMY
A large part of the active population works in agriculture and the Government
is committed to this area, strongly rooted in the culture of the country, trying
to increase their yields through programs for the expansion of irrigated areas.
Despite the efforts of the Algerian government, the country is still heavily
dependent on other countries by importing large quantities of food and
INTRODUCTION
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
dependent on other countries by importing large quantities of food and
agricultural products. This is another outlet for many Italian farms.
The success of the ‘Made in Italy’ in the algerian market (usually characterized
by the 4 A – Agroalimentare -Food, Arredamento-furniture, Abbigliamento-
clothing, Automazione industriale-industrial automation) occurs mainly
through the industrial automation sector, which represents over 75% of the
Algerian demand of Italian goods, confirming its status as a priority sector for
our exports.
ACTUAL IMPORT-EXPORT TRENDS
Data of European section of ISTAT (Italian Statistical Agency) called COWEB.
INTRODUCTION
Total import and export
between Italy and Algeria
in the years 2009 and 2010
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
The import market from
Algeria is limited to only
20 Italian provinces
where the first 4 cover
more than 98% of the
total. The result is a very
concentrated market
in the years 2009 and 2010
ACTUAL IMPORT-EXPORT TRENDS
INTRODUCTION
Exports from Algeria has
a greater geographical
spread, but smaller
quantities of goods (5.5%
of imports, that’s to say
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
of imports, that’s to say
21.6 mil. vs. € 394 mil. €).
PASSENGERS TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR ALGERIA
INTRODUCTION
Data from the European
project DATELINE were
collected to evaluate the
demand from passengers
transport from EU to Algeria.
this project has elaborated a
In the central-southern Italy the only area with a number of
Long Distance Journeys to Africa not low is Lazio region.
The European Countries with more LD journeys are France,
Germany, United Kingdom and Spain; the proposed routes
must create a network with these Countries with marittime
ro-ro types or air connections.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
this project has elaborated a
survey to European citizens
(interviews with a sample of
more than 86,000 residents in
the European Union and their
journeys with distance greater
than 100 km) and it was
reconstructed the O/D Matrix
for all Long Distance Journey
and relative to all transport
modes.
ro-ro types or air connections.
This first part consisted in the
research and analysis of data and
information related to existing
connections and about the actual
quantities of goods exported and
imported from Algeria so to allow
DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
EXISTING SERVICES
The analysis of existing routes
showed that the connections are
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
imported from Algeria so to allow
linking transport supply with
demand.
With regard to information on
existing routes between the two
countries, information from
specialized journals have been
collected (Messaggero Marittimo
and Avvisatore Marittimo of
September 2011).
showed that the connections are
prevalent to the area north-central of
Italy, while the central area between
the south of Tuscany and Lazio is
totally absent of links. In practice this
area is comprised in the center
Tyrrhenian-Adriatic Logistics Platform
(as called in the National Logistics
Plan).
In the central Italy Pisa Airport is one of the more important with many links with
France, Germany and France.
DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
EXISTING SERVICES
50
60Links with Pisa Galilei Airport
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
Spain Germany England France * Others
In terms of air traffic the company with the largest number of links between these four
Countries and Italy is Ryanair that has its Hub in Pisa Airport.
DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
EXISTING SERVICES
120
140136
Ryanair Network
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
PIS
A (Ita
lia)
Alg
he
ro (Ita
lia)
Ba
ri (Italia
)B
olo
gn
a (Ita
lia)
Brin
disi (Ita
lia)
Ca
glia
ri (Italia
)M
ilan
o (Ita
lia)
Pa
lerm
o (Ita
lia)
Ro
ma
(Italia
)T
rap
an
i (Italia
)V
en
ezia
(Italia
)O
slo (N
orve
gia
)M
arra
ke
sh (M
aro
cco)
Fe
z (Ma
rocco
)B
ruxe
lles (B
elg
io)
Billu
nd
(Da
nim
arca
)T
alllin
n (E
ston
ia)
Ta
mp
ere
(Fin
lan
dia
)M
arsig
lia (F
ran
cia)
Pa
rigi (F
ran
cia)
Bre
ma
(Ge
rma
nia
)D
usse
ldo
rf (Ge
rma
nia
)F
ran
cofo
rte (G
erm
an
ia)
Ka
rlsruh
e-B
ad
en
…M
on
aco
(Ge
rma
nia
)R
od
i (Gre
cia)
Brim
ing
ha
m (U
K)
Bo
urn
em
ou
th (U
K)
Bristo
l (UK
)E
ast M
idla
nd
s (UK
)G
lasg
ow
(UK
)Le
ed
s (UK
)Live
rpo
ol (U
K)
Lon
dra
(UK
)M
an
che
ster (U
K)
Du
blin
o (Irla
nd
a)
Rig
a (Le
tton
ia)
Ka
un
as (Litu
an
ia)
Ma
ltaE
ind
ho
ven
(Pa
esi B
assi)
Bre
slavia
(Po
lon
ia)
Cra
covia
(Po
lon
ia)
Po
rto (P
orto
ga
llo)
Fa
ro (P
orto
ga
llo)
Bra
tislava
(Slo
vacch
ia)
Alica
nte
(Sp
ag
na
)B
arce
lon
a (S
pa
gn
a)
Fu
erte
ven
tura
(Sp
ag
na
)G
iron
a (S
pa
gn
a)
Gra
n C
an
aria
(Sp
ag
na
)Ib
iza (S
pa
gn
a)
Ma
drid
(Sp
ag
na
)M
ala
ga
(Sp
ag
na
)R
eu
s (Sp
ag
na
)S
iviglia
(Sp
ag
na
)S
tocco
lma
(Sve
zia)
Te
ne
rife (S
pa
gn
a)
Va
len
cia (S
pa
gn
a)
46
21 2231
14
26
69
12
49
34
19
48
24
12
73
14 11 1322
46
23
4653
12 15 1323
12
2934
23 23
41
26
63
16 20 2228
1522
31 29
18
56
2818
46
31 28
4248
2837
49
34 34
Lin
ks
nu
mb
er
Airport
After Milan and Rome airports, the biggest number
of connections are linked to Pisa Airport
The proposed services are four, one with air and three maritime links.
DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
PROPOSED SERVICES
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
A transport cost/time model was elaborated
for italian and algerian territory.
Moreover, by means of cost functions, the
travel impedance for each arc was evaluated so
to construct the gravitational area of each port
DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
to construct the gravitational area of each port
both for Italy side than Algeria one.
DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
Time cost functions
DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
Monetary cost
functions
The first results of the model
with the gravitational area
analysis show how the demand
Italy-side, intercepted from the
port of Livorno, is mainly
DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
port of Livorno, is mainly
regional, due to the
conformation of the Italian road
network with a possible
expansion to Emilia Romagna
and Veneto regions. Instead, the
Civitavecchia and Naples ports
have a greater gravitational
basin so, therefore, to fully
justify the suggested routes.
A Stated Preferences Survey was elaborated with an interview (always
ongoing) to some companies that have been identified as possible users of the
shipping services designed or that currently trades with Algeria.
DEMAND ESTIMATION
WORKING IN PROGRESS
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012
The first results of the survey show that the potential attractiveness is very
high for both imports than exports to Algeria, but, at present, this possibility is
limited by high port costs (eg. cost of goods handling) and excessive
bureaucracy impact (eg. number of documents and others).
DEMAND ESTIMATION
SOME PROBLEMS
Shipping cost (euro) comparison for some African Countries
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012