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India Equity Research | Power

May 1, 2020

Sector Update

Power Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Sharp decline in generation on low

demand during lockdown

CESC BUY

CMP Target Price

656 698

Gujarat Industries Power BUY

CMP Target Price

59 99

JSW Energy BUY

CMP Target Price

45 73

NHPC BUY

CMP Target Price

21 28

NTPC BUY

CMP Target Price

95 120

Power Grid Corporation BUY

CMP Target Price

162 220

This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation:

Anuj Upadhyay [email protected] +91 22 6624 2447

Power demand fell 8.2% yoy in Mar’20 amid lockdown: Power generation declined

8.2% yoy to 107.4.1bn units in Mar’20 as peak demand declined 23-25% during the

lockdown in the country. Generation is expected to decline 32.2% yoy in Apr’20.

PLF: PLF declined significantly across the coal segment in Mar’20 (-882 bps yoy to 53.5%)

due to the fall in demand. However, PLF improved in 1) hydro (+101bps yoy to 27.3%) due

to better water availability; 2) gas (+343bps yoy to 24.2%) to maintain grid stability; and 3)

nuclear plants (+1,226bps yoy to 80.0%) due to better fuel availability in Mar’20. PLF in

Apr’20 is expected to decline further across the coal segment due to a lack of significant

industrial and commercial activity during the lockdown.

Spot rates declined in Mar’20 but deficits remained flat: Both base and power deficits

remained flat at 0.4% each in Mar’20 on yoy and mom basis. Merchant rates, however,

declined by 21.1% yoy to Rs2.5/kWh in Mar’20 and further by 1.8% mom to Rs2.4/kWh in

Apr’20 due to subdued power demand.

EAP position: We continue to prefer regulated return entities such as NTPC, PGCIL,

NHPC and CESC which remains largely immune to the low power offtake by the discoms

as their fixed costs are recoverable on the basis of plant availability, and not load factor.

Our view: The lockdown across the country led to a significant 23-25% decline in power

demand and generation due to very low power offtake from commercial and industrial

consumers (C&I) that account for ~40% of the total power demand. The demand, however, is

expected to witness a gradual pick-up in the coming weeks with the onset of peak summers

and also some relaxations in the green zone areas. In addition, in a move to revive the

economy, government is planning to provide relaxations across the selected C&I segment

which should increase power demand. Further, in order to provide relief to the financially

burdened discoms, the Union Power Ministry (MoP) has made a proposal to PFC/REC to

provide special loans to discoms to help them clear power generators’ outstanding bills of

~Rs906bn. These special concessional loans will be given for a period of 10-12 years, along

with a moratorium on principal. The loans will be secured by state government guarantees.

Relaxation is also provided to discoms in maintaining lower LCs for power procurement, with

moratorium on interest and principal repayment to banks. This should partially offset the stress

on discoms’ working capital due to subdued power demand and low revenue collection during

the lockdown period. Gencos and transmission companies’ working capital would also be

under stress due to delayed payment from discoms. The MoP’s direction to discoms for the

payment of availability-based fixed charges has provided a significant relief to regulated

entities such as NTPC, NHPC and PGCIL.

We continue to prefer regulated entities like NTPC, NHPC, CESC and PGCIL who operates

on a risk-averse regulatory business environment and earns fixed return on invested project

equities. These companies can recover their entire fixed costs on an availability basis.

Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Power (Page 3)

Financial Snapshot (Consolidated)

EPS (Rs) EV/EBITDA P/E

FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

CESC 70.7 71.4 9.1 8.4 9.3 9.2

Gujarat Industries Power 17.6 19.5 2.0 2.1 3.4 3.0

JSW Energy 5.4 6.0 4.9 3.8 8.2 7.4

NHPC 2.8 2.9 8.1 8.2 7.4 7.2

NTPC 11.8 12.2 8.4 8.1 8.0 7.8

Power Grid Corporation 21.4 22.2 7.2 6.7 7.6 7.3

Source: Company, Emkay Research

http://www.emkayglobal.com/

Power India Equity Research | Sector Update


May 1, 2020 | 2

Story in Charts

Exhibit 1: Generation declined in Mar’20 due to subdued power demand amid nationwide lockdowns

2.0 4.18.5 6.6 7.6 8.2 10.9

5.1 4.4

-3.8

0.9 2.16.1 7.2 8.2

4.7

-2.9 -3.7

-12.4

-5.7 -1.6

2.69.6

-8.2

-32.2-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

Oct-18

Nov-1

8

Dec-1

8

Jan-1

9

Feb-1

9

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-1

9

Jun-1

9

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-19

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-2

0

Feb-2

0

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

YoY Generation growth (%)

Source: Emkay Research, Industry

Exhibit 2: PLF improved across all segments except renewables


Exhibit 3: In FY20 PLF improved across Hydro and Nuclear


Exhibit 4: Both peak and base deficit widened mom but remained flat yoy


Exhibit 5: Merchant rates remained low due to subdued power demand


Exhibit 6: No plants have subcritical level of coal inventory


62.3

20.8

67.8

26.217.4

53.5

24.2

80.1

27.3

16.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables

PL

F (

%)

March 19 March 20

59.2

22.8

33.9

63.7

20.0

55.9

22.2

39.3

75.9

17.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

COAL GAS HYDRO NUCLEAR Renewables

PL

F (

%)

FY19 FY20

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

(%)

Base deficit Peak deficit Linear (Base deficit)8.46.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Se

p 1

7

Nov 1

7

Jan

18

Ma

r 18

Ma

y 1

8

Jul 18

Se

p 1

8

Nov 1

8

Jan

19

Ma

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jul 19

Se

p 1

9

Nov 1

9

Jan

20

Ma

r 20

Rs/U

nit

2.4 4

0

27

25

2 25 4 4 4 4 4

0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

Fe

b/1

9

Ma

r/19

Ap

r/19

Ma

y/1

9

Jun

/19

Jul/19

Au

g/1

9

Se

p/1

9

Oct/19

Nov/1

9

Dec/1

9

Jan

/20

Fe

b/2

0

Ma

r/20

Ap

r/20

(No o

f P

ow

er

Pla

nts

)




May 1, 2020 | 3

Emkay Alpha Portfolio – Power

EAP sector portfolio

Company Name BSE200 Weight

EAP Weight

OW/UW (%)

OW/UW (bps)

EAP Weight (Normalised)

Power 1.62 1.62 0% 0 100.00

Apar Industries 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00

CESC 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.02

Gujarat Industries Power 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00

JSW Energy 0.03 0.03 -1% 0 2.03

NHPC 0.09 0.09 0% 0 5.70

NTPC 0.76 0.76 0% 0 46.85

Power Grid Corporation 0.74 0.74 0% 0 45.40

Cash 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00

Source: Emkay Research

* Not under coverage: Equal Weight

High Conviction/Strong Over Weight High Conviction/Strong Under Weight

Sector portfolio NAV

Base Latest

1-Apr-19 30-Jul-19 1-Nov-19 30-Jan-20 31-Mar-20 30-Apr-20

EAP - Power 100.0 96.7 94.2 91.5 71.1 76.2

BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF) 100.0 96.8 94.2 92.1 71.5 76.6

*Performance measurement base date 1st April 2019


NAV chart


Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): SMID

Please see our model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Nifty

“Emkay Alpha Portfolio – SMID and Nifty are a supporting document to the Emkay Alpha

Portfolios Report and is updated on regular intervals”

65

73

81

89

97

105

Apr-19 May-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 Apr-20

NAV

EAP - Power BSE200 Neutral Weighted Portfolio (ETF)

Analyst: Anuj Upadhyay

Contact Details

[email protected]

+91 22 6624 2447

Sector

Power

Analyst bio

Anuj Upadhyay holds an MMS in Finance

and FRM (US GARP), and has total 10

years of research experience. He

currently covers 8 stocks in the Power

sector and 2 in the Ports space.


https://web3.emkayglobal.com/ResearchAccess/Upload/SMID_Apr20.pdf

https://web3.emkayglobal.com/ResearchAccess/Upload/Nifty_13Apr20.pdf

mailto:[email protected]



May 1, 2020 | 4

Generation, PLF and prices

Generation declined 8.2% yoy in Mar’20 but was flat on full-year basis

Generation in Mar’20 declined 8.2% yoy (incl. provisional figures for renewables) as overall

demand declined 9.1% yoy to 98.8bn units. Generation declined in coal (-12.3% yoy) and

renewables (-1.3% yoy), while it improved in gas (+16.6% yoy), hydro (+4.8% yoy) and nuclear

(+18.1% yoy). Provisional data indicates that generation is expected to decline 32.2% yoy in

Apr’20, with coal declining 39.2% yoy due to subdued demand from the C&I segment. On a full-

year basis generation has remained flat at 1,378bn units.

Exhibit 7: Generation remained flat on full-year basis

Source: CEA, Emkay Research

Exhibit 8: Generation declined across coal and RES in Mar’20

(12.3)

16.6 4.8 18.1

92.1

(1.3)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Imports RES

(%)


During Mar’20, peak power demand improved yoy across states like J&K (+14% yoy),

Rajasthan (+14% yoy), Gujarat (+3%), Maharashtra (+7% yoy), AP (+14%), Karnataka

(+3%), Telangana (+23%), West Bengal (+5%) and Jharkhand (+4%).

Power generation, however, increased only in five states: Delhi (+76%), Chhattisgarh

(+8%), Tamil Nadu (+2%), Bihar (+14%) and Orissa (+18%).

Exhibit 9: State-wise generation and demand scenario on a monthly basis

76%-56%

-7%

0%

-68%-15%

-12%

-3%

8%-9%

-14%-10%

-23%

-2%-23%

2%-15%

14%-11%

18%

-17%

-6%

-3%

-2%14%

-13%

14%

-10%-5%

-10%

3%

-1%

7%

14%

3%-2%

-1%

23%-6%

4%

-6%5%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Delhi

Haryana

HP

J&K

Punjab

Rajasthan

UP

Uttarakhand

Chhattisgarh

Gujarat

MP

Maharashtra

AP

Karnataka

Kerala

TN

Telangana

Bihar

Jharkhand

Orissa

WB

Demand growth YoY Generation growth YoY


117.0 107.4

1375.5 1378.3

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

March 19 March 20 YTDFY19 YTDFY20

(BU

s)




May 1, 2020 | 5

Company performance

NTPC’s power generation declined to 23.6bn units as generation declined 4.1% yoy in coal,

2.5% yoy in gas-based plants and 3.2% in hydro.

Power generation declined across all other stations except GMR plants.

Power generation increased 10.5% yoy across hydro-based plants of SJVN and by 2.0%

yoy across the NHPC stations.

Exhibit 10: Company-wise generation

Company Capacity

(MW) Generation

Mar'20 (GWH) YoY % growth

(Mar'20) Generation

YTDFY20 (GWH) % Growth

(YTDFY20) % coal PLF

(current month) % Gas PLF

(current month) % hydro PLF

(current month)

NTPC 52,466 23,640 (4.1) 2,62,442 (5.2) 68 31 16

Tata Power 6,720 2,750 (31.5) 40,510 (3.7) 56 67 -

Reliance Power 5,760 3,124 (1.7) 39,381 (0.1) 74 - -

GMR 1,640 815 83.2 10,006 (5.5) - 68 -

GVK 919 - (100.0) 1,287 (47.4) - 0 -

CESC 2,325 1,067 (0.1) 13,947 (0.7) 63 - -

Jindal 4,720 992 (35.4) 15,344 (11.3) 29 - -

Lanco 2,178 474 (7.7) 5,058 (23.5) 71 9 -

Adani 9,240 4,242 (26.6) 61,106 14.9 63 - -

JSW Energy 4,531 1,356 (17.0) 22,806 (1.3) 41 - -

GIPCL 660 289 (7.0) 3,379 (4.5) 79 0 -

Rattan India 2,700 64 (53.6) 3,197 (21.5) 3 - -

NHPC 5,121 1,638 2.0 25,790 7.5 - - 29

SJVN 1,912 303 10.5 9,546 14.5 - - 20


Exhibit 11: Sectoral PLF performances (Mar’20); PLF declined across coal and RES segment

62.3

20.8

67.8

26.2

17.4

53.5

24.2

80.1

27.3

16.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables

PLF (

%)

March 19 March 20


Exhibit 12: Sectoral PLF performance (FY20) – Coal and RES reported fall in FY20 PLF vs. FY19

59.2

22.8

33.9

63.7

20.0

55.9

22.2

39.3

75.9

17.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

COAL GAS HYDRO NUCLEAR Renewables

%

FY19 FY20





May 1, 2020 | 6

Deficit: Both peak and base deficits remained largely flat yoy and mom in Mar’20.

Exhibit 13: Peak and base deficits for Mar’20

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Base Defict Peak Deficit

% d

eficit

March-19 March-20


Exhibit 14: Region-wise base deficit and peak deficit (Mar’20)

Region %

Base Deficit Peak Deficit

Northern region (1.7) (1.3)

Western region 0.0 0.0

Southern region 0.0 0.0

Eastern Region 0.0 0.0

North Eastern region (2.2) (3.4)

All India (0.4) (0.4)


Exhibit 15: Deficit status of eight major states (Mar’20)

Major deficit states %

Base Deficit Peak Deficit

J&K (17.9) (20.0)

Bihar 0.0 0.0

AP 0.0 (0.1)

Karnataka 0.0 0.0

UP (1.1) 0.0

Telangana 0.0 0.0

Tamil Nadu 0.0 (0.1)

Kerala 0.0 0.0


Exhibit 16: Peak deficit and base deficit trend

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

May-

16

Jul-16

Sep-1

6

Nov-

16

Jan-1

7

Mar-

17

May-

17

Jul-17

Sep-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan-1

8

Mar-

18

May-

18

Jul-18

Sep-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan-1

9

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-19

Sep-1

9

Nov-

19

Jan-2

0

Mar-

20

(%)

Base deficit Peak deficit

8.6.





May 1, 2020 | 7

Spot rates: Merchant rates declined 21.2% yoy and by 15.7% mom to Rs2.5/unit in Mar’20.

Merchant rates have declined further by 1.8% mom and by 25.1% yoy to Rs2.4/unit in Apr’20

due to the significant drop in power demand amid nationwide lockdowns. Prices in the South

Zone declined 26.7% yoy to Rs2.53/unit in Apr’20 and by 20.9% yoy in other Zones.

Exhibit 17: Spot exchange rate on IEX

4.7

5.9

3.63.3 3.3

3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.32.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

2.5 2.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Sep

18

Oct

18

Nov

18

Dec

18

Jan

19

Feb

19

Mar

19

Apr

19

May

19

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Aug

19

Sep

19

Oct

19

Nov

19

Dec

19

Jan

20

Feb

20

Mar

20

Apr

20

Rs

/Un

it

Source: IEX, Emkay Research

Exhibit 18: Month-wise Zonal IEX average price trend

Zone Apr'20 Apr'19 YoY (%) Mar'20 MoM (%)

A1 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

A2 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

E1 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

E2 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

N1 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

N2 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

N3 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

S1 2.53 3.44 -26.7 2.47 2.19

S2 2.53 3.46 -26.9 2.47 2.19

W1 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

W2 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

W3 2.53 3.19 -20.9 2.45 2.97

MCP 2.53 3.22 -21.6 2.46 2.85

Source: CEA, Emkay Research;

Fuel supply, prices: Production across coal mines improved by 5.3% on yoy basis to 90.3

mn tonnes in Mar’20, while coal dispatch was down by 6.9% yoy to 61.4mn tonnes. Coal

production at CIL mines increased by 6.5% yoy to 84.36 mn tonnes in Mar’20, while in

FY20 CIL produced 602.14mn tonnes of coal vs 608.1mn tonnes in FY19. Overall coal

production in FY20 has declined marginally by 0.8% yoy to 666.2mn tonnes.

Further, the outstanding dues of power generators to CIL stood at Rs138.4bn at the end of

Feb’20 vs. Rs124.2bn at the end of Jan’20.

Inventory at power stations continues to impress with zero plants facing sub-critical level of

inventory in Apr’20 vs. 27 in April’19, primarily due to the drop in demand.

Exhibit 19: Number of power plants facing sub-critical level of inventory (less than 7 days)

2825

1613

11

22

29

23

96

4

0

27

25

2 25 4 4 4 4 4

0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Apr-

18

May-

18

Jun-1

8

Jul-18

Aug-1

8

Sep-1

8

Oct-18

Nov-

18

Dec-

18

Jan-1

9

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-

19

Jun-1

9

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-19

Nov-

19

Dec-

19

Jan-2

0

Feb

-20

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

(No o

f Pow

er Pla

nts

)


A1 - Tripura, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland

A2 - Assam, Arunachal Pradesh

E1 - WB, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand

E2 - Orissa

N1 - J&K, HP, Chandigarh, Haryana

N2 - UP, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Delhi

N3 - Punjab

S1 - AP, Telangana, Karnataka, Pondicherry (Yanam), South Goa

S2 - TN, Kerala, Pondicherry (Puducherry), Pondicherry (Karaikal), Pondicherry (Mahe)

W1 - MP

W2 - Maharashtra, Gujarat, Daman and Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, North Goa

W3- Chhattisgarh




May 1, 2020 | 8

As of April’20, coal stocks at 134 power plants increased by 60.6% yoy to 50.7mn tonnes

(97.7% domestic and 2.3% imported). Coal stock was also up by 12.7% mom due to better

coal supply and slowdown in demand which led to a rise in inventory levels.

Exhibit 20: Coal production and dispatch trend in Mar’20

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

- 10.0 20.0

30.0 40.0 50.0

60.0 70.0 80.0

90.0

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-

19

Jun-1

9

Jul-19

Aug-1

9

Sep-1

9

Oct-19

Nov-

19

Dec-

19

Jan-2

0

Feb

-20

(%)

(Mn T

onnes)

Coal production Coal disp atch t o power sector Dispatch to Power Coal Pro duction


International coal prices (RB Index 6300 kcal) declined 8.8% yoy to US$65.5/tonne in

Mar’20 and by 14.1% mom. On a landed cost basis, however, it was down by only 0.5%

yoy at Rs4,932/tonne, primarily due to rupee depreciation. The HBA Index declined 19.7%

yoy to US$65.8/tonne in Apr’20 and by 25.9% yoy to US$67.1/tonne in Mar’20.

Exhibit 21: International coal price trend (RB Index 6300 kcal) Mar’20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec-

14

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Dec-

18

Mar-

19

Jun-1

9

Sep-1

9

Dec-

19

Mar-

20

($/tonne)

Source: Emkay Research,

Exhibit 22: International coal price trend (Indonesian coal - HBA index) April’20

0.00

40.00

80.00

120.00

Dec-

14

Apr-

15

Aug-1

5

Dec-

15

Apr-

16

Aug-1

6

Dec-

16

Apr-

17

Aug-1

7

Dec-

17

Apr-

18

Aug-1

8

Dec-

18

Apr-

19

Aug-1

9

Dec-

19

Apr-

20

($/tonne)





May 1, 2020 | 9

Natural gas production declined 8.8% yoy and by 10.2% mom to 75.5 mmscmd in Feb’20.

Exhibit 23: Domestic natural gas production trend

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Feb

-16

May-

16

Aug-1

6

Nov-1

6

Feb

-17

May-

17

Aug-1

7

Nov-

17

Feb

-18

May-

18

Aug-1

8

Nov-

18

Feb-1

9

May-

19

Aug-1

9

Nov-

19

Feb-2

0

(mm

scm

d)


Capacity: In Mar’20, 1,320 MW capacity was added across the Coal space (660 MW – NTPC

Khargone & 660 MW Suratgarh in Rajasthan) and 270 MW capacity was added across the

Renewable sector. Apart from this, 700 MW was retired in the coal sector during the month. In

FY20, 14GW of net capacity has been added, comprising Coal (4.4GW), Hydro (300MW) and

RES (9.4GW). Currently, the all-India installed capacity is 370GW.

Exhibit 24: Current capacity fuel mix

62.3

1.8

12.3

23.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Thermal (Coal+gas) Nuclear Hydro RES

(%)


Exhibit 25: Upcoming plant capacity

State Project Name LOA Date Unit Cap. (MW) Org. Comm. Sched. Ant. COD

Bihar Barh STPP St-1 March-05 1 660 August-09 June-20

Bihar Nabinagar STPP January-13 2 660 July-17 June-20

Chhattisgarh Lara STPP November-12 2 800 September-17 July-20

Madhya Pradesh Gadarwara STPP March-13 2 800 September-17 July-20

Odisha Rourkela PP-II Expansion May-16 1 250 September-18 July-20

Uttar Pradesh Harduaganj Expn II September-15 1 660 November-19 July-20

Telangana Bhadradri TPP March-15 2 270 March-17 May-20

Karnataka Yelahanka CCPP November-15 1 370 February-18 May-20

Source: Emkay Research, Industry; As per CEA report

Outstanding dues of discoms: The outstanding dues of distribution companies to power

generating companies declined 3% mom to Rs906bn in Mar’20, while the overdue amount is

down by 1% mom to Rs798bn.




May 1, 2020| 10

Exhibit 26: Discoms outstanding dues data

885 897 881 860 876 889929

906

713745 760 758 765 766

808 798

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

Rs b

n

Outstanding Overdue O/S


Exhibit 27: Total gas consumption by top 10 power developers (MMSCMD)

Developer October-19 November-19 December-19 January-20 February-20 March-20

Torrent Power 4.8 5.17 3.89 2.53 4.37 4.49

NTPC 2.98 2.3 2.4 3.06 3.41 2.8

IPGPCL 3.39 2.95 2.86 2.59 2.67 2.57

ONGC 1.82 1.6 1.56 1.88 2.49 3.93

RGPPL 2.32 2.68 2.99 2.33 2.21 1.99

NEEPCO 2.18 2.24 2.18 1.38 2.17 1.67

MAHAGENCO 2.47 2.18 1.6 1.07 1.71 0.9

Puducherry ED 0.17 0.17 1.35 0.42 1.51 3.31

APGPCL 1.02 1.12 1.09 1.65 1.03 1.07

Lanco Power 1.2 1.14 1.21 0.76 0.95 0.47

Source: Emkay Research, Elekore

Exhibit 28: Gas Consumption by Power Sector (MMSCM/Day)

Category September-19 October-19 November-19 December-19 January-20 February-20

RLNG 11 8 9 8 7 8

DOMESTIC 20 19 20 19 19 19

Total 31 27 29 27 26 27


DEEP Portal Tender Outcomes in Mar’20

Exhibit 29: GUVNL RA 02 – 500 MW tender

Buyer Period Tender

Quantum (MW)

Trader Source Supply

Quantum (MW)

Supply Time

Landed cos (Rs/kWh)t

GUVNL RA 02

1st April 2020 -30th April2020

500

Adani Enterprises

Torrent 50

00-24 hrs

3.16 TPTCL 100

Adani Power 350

1st May 2020 - 31st May 2020

500 Torrent 50

3.21 Adani Power 450

1st June 2020 - 30th June 2020

500 Torrent 50

3.25 Adani Power 450


Exhibit 30: Tata Power RA 82

Bidder’s Name Tariff (Rs/kwh) Period of Supply Bidder Qty (MW) LoI

Essar Power 2.8 1st June 2020 - 30th June 2020 87

LoI Issued Adani Power 2.8 1st July 2020 - 31st July 2020 87

DB Power 2.8 1st Aug 2020 - 31st Aug 2020 87

Adani Power 2.8 1st Sept 2020 - 30th Sept 2020 87





May 1, 2020| 11

CESC RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period

(months) Rating Analyst

10-Apr-20 468 698 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

19-Mar-20 465 698 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

27-Feb-20 664 846 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay

11-Feb-20 728 846 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay

30-Jan-20 719 846 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay



27-Nov-19 747 846 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay


25-Sep-19 772 846 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay


29-Aug-19 757 846 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay


24-Jun-19 758 846 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

18-May-19 663 846 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay


05-Feb-19 692 846 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

18-Jan-19 689 868 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

15-Oct-18 702 1,172 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

26-Jul-18 705 1,249 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

03-Jul-18 691 1,249 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

23-May-18 783 1,249 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

02-May-18 809 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

01-Mar-18 779 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

08-Feb-18 770 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

30-Jan-18 828 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

01-Jan-18 825 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

01-Dec-17 773 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

08-Nov-17 769 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

01-Nov-17 790 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

10-Oct-17 820 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

06-Sep-17 811 1,248 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay

11-Aug-17 712 1,003 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

19-May-17 681 894 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay


RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research

370

546

722

898

1074

1250

03

-Ma

y-1

7

31

-Oct-

17

30

-Apr-

18

28

-Oct-

18

27

-Apr-

19

25

-Oct-

19

23

-Apr-

20

BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price

Gujarat Industries Power RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst







27-Nov-19 67 102 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay


25-Sep-19 71 102 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay









03-Jul-18 88 137 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay





30-Jan-18 119 145 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

01-Jan-18 133 145 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

08-Nov-17 130 145 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

10-Oct-17 144 131 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay

09-Aug-17 125 132 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay


22-May-17 106 113 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay




40

62

84

106

128

150

03

-Ma

y-1

7

31

-Oct-

17

30

-Apr-

18

28

-Oct-

18

27

-Apr-

19

25

-Oct-

19

23

-Apr-

20





May 1, 2020| 12

JSW Energy RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period














24-Jun-19 67 74 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay


22-Apr-19 71 73 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay



27-Jul-18 67 73 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay

03-Jul-18 64 73 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

03-May-18 82 73 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

02-May-18 82 76 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

01-Mar-18 81 76 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

06-Feb-18 83 76 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

30-Jan-18 87 76 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

01-Jan-18 91 76 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

01-Dec-17 84 76 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

01-Nov-17 85 76 12m Reduce Anuj Upadhyay

10-Oct-17 79 64 12m Hold Anuj Upadhyay






30

44

58

72

86

100

03

-Ma

y-1

7

31

-Oct-

17

30

-Apr-

18

28

-Oct-

18

27

-Apr-

19

25

-Oct-

19

23

-Apr-

20


NHPC RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst


















16-Dec-18 26 31 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay


03-Jul-18 23 31 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

04-Jun-18 26 31 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay








01-Nov-17 29 33 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

10-Oct-17 28 33 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

10-Aug-17 30 33 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay





10

16

22

28

34

40

03

-Ma

y-1

7

31

-Oct-

17

30

-Apr-

18

28

-Oct-

18

27

-Apr-

19

25

-Oct-

19

23

-Apr-

20





May 1, 2020| 13

NTPC RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period















07-Oct-19 116 146 12m Buy Anuj Upadhyay





























70

101

132

163

194

225

03

-Ma

y-1

7

31

-Oct-

17

30

-Apr-

18

28

-Oct-

18

27

-Apr-

19

25

-Oct-

19

23

-Apr-

20


Power Grid Corporation RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE

Date Closing

Price TP

Period (months)

Rating Analyst



















03-Jul-18 185 244 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay

30-May-18 210 244 12m Accumulate Anuj Upadhyay













140

167

194

221

248

275

03

-Ma

y-1

7

31

-Oct-

17

30

-Apr-

18

28

-Oct-

18

27

-Apr-

19

25

-Oct-

19

23

-Apr-

20





May 1, 2020| 14

Emkay Rating Distribution

Ratings Expected Return within the next 12-18 months.

BUY Over 15%

HOLD Between -5% to 15%

SELL Below -5%

Completed Date: 01 May 2020 19:54:03 (SGT) Dissemination Date: 01 May 2020 19:55:03 (SGT)

Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.

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May 1, 2020| 15

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May 1, 2020| 16

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