Population projections, trends and COVID...2 Presentation summary • Queensland Government...
Transcript of Population projections, trends and COVID...2 Presentation summary • Queensland Government...
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Population projections, trends and COVID
Queensland Schools Planning Forum
18 August 2020
Queensland Government Statistician’s Office
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Presentation summary
• Queensland Government population projections, state of play
• Pre COVID-19 trends in fertility and migration, and projected school
aged children
• Lack of current data, potential COVID-19 impacts on fertility and
migration
• Implications for future numbers of school aged children
• Recent research
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Queensland Government population projections
• Released twice every 5 years, census cycle
• Qld - single year of age, single projection year period
3 series (low, medium, high)
• Cohort-component model
– Each year, every person becomes one year older
– Assumptions are made for births, deaths, and inward and outward migration
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Queensland Government population projections
• 2018 edition
– Latest available
– Released late 2018
– Replaced 2015 edition
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Queensland Government population projections
• 2018 edition
– Latest available
– Released late 2018
– Replaced 2015 edition
• Future editions
– Work on 2021 edition currently put on hold
– Due to extreme uncertainty stemming from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on
key drivers of population growth, in particular migration, and a range of possible
recovery trajectories
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Demographic features
Baby boomers
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Calendar year
Total fertility rates, Queensland
Source: ABS, Births, Australia (Cat. No. 3301.0)
Baby bounce
88
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Calendar year
Births registered, Queensland
Source: ABS, Births, Australia (Cat. No. 3301.0)
Baby bounce
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5 year olds, Queensland
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. No. 3101.0)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
As at 30 June
1010
12 year olds, Queensland
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. No. 3101.0)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
As at 30 June
1111
0 to 17 year olds, Queensland, 30 June 2019
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. No. 3101.0)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Age (years)
1212
Net migration, Queensland
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. No. 3101.0)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19
Net interstate migration Net overseas migration Net migration
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Net migration by age group, 2018-19, Queensland
Source: ABS, Migration, Australia (Cat. No. 3412.0)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Age group (years)
Net overseas migration Net interstate migration
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Components of change, 5 to 14 year olds, Queensland
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. No. 3101.0), Migration, Australia (Cat. No. 3412.0)
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Net overseas migration Net interstate migration Cohort effects Total change
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5 to 11 year olds (primary), Queensland
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. No. 3101.0); Queensland Government population projections 2018 edition
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 2066
Actuals low medium high
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12 to 17 year olds (secondary), Queensland
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat. No. 3101.0); Queensland Government population projections 2018 edition
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 2066
Year ended 30 June
Actuals low medium high
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COVID-19
• Uncertainty
– Massive and unprecedented economic, social and demographic disruption
– Significant uncertainty as to the duration and scale of impacts
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COVID-19
• Uncertainty
– Massive and unprecedented economic, social and demographic disruption
– Significant uncertainty as to the duration and scale of impacts
• Forecasting
– Assumptions underpinning population projections are generally trend-based
but … these trends are broken
– Standard population projections are not feasible
– Scenarios which model a range of plausible population futures are best option
1919
COVID-19
• Uncertainty
– Massive and unprecedented economic, social and demographic disruption
– Significant uncertainty as to the duration and scale of impacts
• Forecasting
– Assumptions underpinning population projections are generally trend-based
but … these trends are broken
– Standard population projections are not feasible
– Scenarios which model a range of plausible population futures are best option
• Lack of current data …
2020
Lack of current ABS data
• Total Qld population, overseas and interstate migration
– Released quarterly (6 month lag)
– Latest available: Dec quarter 2019 data (published June 2020)
– Upcoming: March quarter 2020 data (scheduled Sep 2020)
– International border closures, China (Feb 1), Iran (Mar 1), South Korea (Mar 5),
Italy (Mar 11), full ban (Mar 20)
– Queensland State border, with exemptions (Mar 26)
– Partial COVID impacts on overseas and interstate migration figures
– Upcoming: June quarter 2020 data (scheduled Dec 2020)
– Will include COVID impacted overseas and interstate migration
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Lack of current ABS data
• Births data
– Released quarterly (6 month lag)
– Latest available: Dec quarter 2019 data (published June 2020)
– Upcoming: March quarter 2020 data (scheduled Sep 2020)
– Upcoming: June quarter 2020 data (scheduled Dec 2020)
– Upcoming: Sep quarter 2020 data (scheduled Mar 2021)
– Upcoming: Dec quarter 2020 data (scheduled Jun 2021), maybe
– Births + 9 months (from Mar quarter 2021 data, scheduled Sep 2021)
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Lack of current ABS data
• Qld population by age
– Released annually, 30 June estimates (6 month lag), published in December
– Latest available: June 2019 (published December 2019)
– Upcoming: June 2020 (scheduled Dec 2020), COVID effects from Mar-June 2020
– Upcoming: June 2021 (scheduled Dec 2021), full year of COVID effects
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Lack of current ABS data
• Total population, small areas (SA2s, LGAs)
– Released annually (9 month lag)
– Latest available: 30 June 2019 (published March 2020)
– Upcoming: 30 June 2020 (scheduled March 2021)
– Upcoming: 30 June 2021 (scheduled March 2022)
• Population by age, small areas (SA2s, LGAs)
– Released annually (15 month lag)
– Latest available: 30 June 2018 (published Sep 2019)
– Upcoming: 30 June 2019 (scheduled Sep 2020)
– Upcoming: 30 June 2020 (scheduled Sep 2021)
– Upcoming: 30 June 2021 (scheduled Sep 2022)
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COVID-19 impact on fertility
• Currently unknown
• Will not be evident until late 2021 at the earliest
• Fertility rates have been declining since 2009, births are steady (Qld)
• Fertility rates have historically declined during times of economic
uncertainty
• E.g. 1930’s Great Depression
• Recent expert academic opinion suggests that the COVID–19
pandemic will have a similar impact on fertility
• ANU Newsroom “Coronavirus crisis likely to reduce birth rate”
• https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/coronavirus-crisis-
%E2%80%98likely-to-reduce-birth-rate%E2%80%99
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COVID-19 impact on net overseas migration (NOM)
• 20 March - Australian Government closed national borders to everyone
except Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate
families
• NOM will have probably declined substantially
• Total overseas arrivals to Australia has decreased to 25,770 in June
2020 compared with 1.56 million in June 2019
• Most of the June 2020 arrivals were returning residents
• There were only 40,080 overseas departures from Australia in June
2020, down from more than 1.8 million in June 2019
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Total international movements, Qld state of clearance(a)
(a) Where a traveller is cleared for international travel by the Australian Border Force.
Source: ABS, Overseas Travel Statistics, Provisional, June 2020 (Cat. No. 3401.0.55.004)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Month of movement
Arrivals Departures
2727
Monday 3 August
2828
Wednesday 12 August
2929
Wednesday 12 August
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COVID-19 impact on net interstate migration (NIM)
• Queensland’s state border closed to interstate arrivals on 26 March
• Limited exemptions, variations since then
• ABS NIM estimates for June quarter 2020 to be released late
December 2020
• Unknown future - full range of likely outcomes are possible, from a
rapid recovery through to extended severe scenarios
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Current research
• Queensland Centre for Population Research, UQ
• Population projection scenarios
• https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343305025_HOW_WILL_COVID-
19_IMPACT_AUSTRALIA'S_FUTURE_POPULATION_A_SCENARIO_APPROACH
• https://theconversation.com/1-4-million-less-than-projected-how-coronavirus-could-hit-
australias-population-in-the-next-20-years-143544
– National and State/Territory results
– 4 scenarios
▪ No COVID
▪ Light
▪ Moderate
▪ Severe
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Summary of projection assumptions for each of the scenarios
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Projected 2040 population, Qld
Source: Queensland Centre for Population research, How will COVID-19 impact Australia’s future population? A scenario approach
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
No pandemic Light Moderate Severe
mil
lio
ns
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Projected population change, 2019-2040, Qld
Source: Queensland Centre for Population research, How will COVID-19 impact Australia’s future population? A scenario approach
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
No pandemic Light Moderate Severe
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Some key points
• Demographic features
• Baby bounce moving through secondary school ages NOW
• COVID-19 may well produce features, a period of lower births and migration
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Some key points
• Demographic features
• Baby bounce moving through secondary school ages NOW
• COVID-19 may well produce features, a period of lower births and migration
• COVID-19 impacts are still largely unknown, depth and length
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Some key points
• Demographic features
• Baby bounce moving through secondary school ages NOW
• COVID-19 may well produce features, a period of lower births and migration
• COVID-19 impacts are still largely unknown, depth and length
• Some research becoming available, but…
• Real time data still to be released
• Population projection scenarios are possible, but not trend based population projections
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