Population Projections
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Transcript of Population Projections
1General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Population Projections
Andrew White, Assistant Statistician
General Register Office for Scotland
Centre for Housing Market Analysis (CHMA)
29 January 2009
2General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Presentation Overview
Housing Need & Demand Assessment Guidance (HNDA) 2008 refers to GROS population
projections. It also refers to GROS household projections which are based on these.
• Methodology and assumptions• Strengths and weaknesses of (GROS) projections• Results and available data• Developments and future plans
3General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Key points
• Projections produced every two years for Scotland, Council areas, NHS Board areas and National Parks; split by age and sex
• Results available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/popproj
• Use latest population estimates as base year
• latest projections are 2006-based, mostly published Jan ‘08
• Expect to publish 2008-based in Dec ’09 / Jan ’10
• Controlled to be consistent with national projections produced by ONS
• Results published for up to 25 years ahead
4General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Calculating population projections
• Start with population for base year• Add on births, subtract deaths, account for migration• Age everyone on by a year• Repeat
• Assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration required
• These are based on last few years data as well as a consultation exercise
• Local area assumptions are consistent with Scotland level assumptions
5General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Assumptions: Fertility & Mortality• Fertility
– The Scottish Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is assumed to fall after an initial increase
– Local fertility levels are calculated by comparing the number of births that would be expected if the Scotland level fertility rates applied to the number of births observed over the last 5 years.
• Mortality– Scottish mortality rates are assumed to continue to fall but remain
higher than in the rest of the UK
– Local mortality levels are calculated by comparing the number of deaths that would be expected if the Scotland level fertility rates applied to the number of deaths observed over the last 5 years.
6General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Assumption: Migration• Migration
– No comprehensive system measuring migration so estimates of migration based on survey data and best proxy data available
• Long term international Migration (>12 months) - International Passenger Survey (IPS)
• Rest UK Migration / within Scotland – NHS Central Register (NHSCR) and Community Health Index (CHI)
– From 2013 there is projected be an annual net inflow of 8,500 people to Scotland
– Migration assumptions for areas within Scotland are based on migration over last 5 years controlled to the Scotland total. Local authorities are then consulted and assumptions amended appropriately.
7General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Strengths/Weaknesses• Strengths(?) of GROS projections
– Have access to best available data
– Consistent across Scotland and with National projections
– Easy to understand
• Weaknesses(?) of GROS projections– Migration data
– do not take account of predicted changes in house building, other planned policy changes or changes in economic circumstances
• Weaknesses of projections in general– Projections less reliable for smaller areas
– Projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go
8General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Projected population as % of estimated population, 20072006-based
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
Ab
erd
ee
n C
ity
Ab
erd
ee
nsh
ire
An
gu
s
Arg
yll
& B
ute
Cla
ckm
an
na
nsh
ire
Du
mfr
ies &
Ga
llow
ay
Du
nd
ee
City
Ea
st
Ayrs
hir
e
Ea
st
Du
nb
art
on
sh
ire
Ea
st
Lo
thia
n
Ea
st
Re
nfr
ew
sh
ire
Ed
inb
urg
h,
City o
f
Eile
an
Sia
r
Fa
lkir
k
Fife
Gla
sg
ow
City
Hig
hla
nd
Inve
rcly
de
Mid
loth
ian
Mo
ray
No
rth
Ayrs
hir
e
No
rth
La
na
rksh
ire
Ork
ne
y I
sla
nd
s
Pe
rth
& K
inro
ss
Re
nfr
ew
sh
ire
Sco
ttis
h B
ord
ers
Sh
etla
nd
Isla
nd
s
So
uth
Ayrs
hir
e
So
uth
La
na
rksh
ire
Stirl
ing
West
Du
nb
art
on
sh
ire
We
st
Lo
thia
n
9General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Projected population as % of estimated population, 20072004-based
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
Ab
erd
ee
n C
ity
Ab
erd
ee
nsh
ire
An
gu
s
Arg
yll
& B
ute
Cla
ckm
an
na
nsh
ire
Du
mfr
ies &
Ga
llow
ay
Du
nd
ee
City
Ea
st
Ayrs
hir
e
Ea
st
Du
nb
art
on
sh
ire
Ea
st
Lo
thia
n
Ea
st
Re
nfr
ew
sh
ire
Ed
inb
urg
h,
City
of
Eile
an
Sia
r
Fa
lkir
k
Fife
Gla
sg
ow
City
Hig
hla
nd
Inve
rcly
de
Mid
loth
ian
Mo
ray
No
rth
Ayrs
hir
e
No
rth
La
na
rksh
ire
Ork
ne
y I
sla
nd
s
Pe
rth
& K
inro
ss
Re
nfr
ew
sh
ire
Sco
ttis
h B
ord
ers
Sh
etla
nd
Isla
nd
s
So
uth
Ayrs
hir
e
So
uth
La
na
rksh
ire
Stirl
ing
We
st
Du
nb
art
on
sh
ire
We
st
Lo
thia
n
10General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Population, Scotland, actual and projected, 1981-2081
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
s)
1 2006-based projection
11General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Actual and projected total population, Scotland, under the 2006-based principal and selected variant projections, 1981-2081
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illi
on
s)
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
HM = High migrationHF = High fertilityHL = High life expectancyP = Principal projectionLL = Low life expectancyLF = Low fertilityLM = Low migrationNC = Natural change only
HM
HF
HL
P
LL
LF
LM
NC
12General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Results of the 2006-Based Sub-National Projections
13General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Most councils adjacent, or close to, Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size whereas other
large urban areas are projected to
decline
14General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Projected percentage population change (2006-based), Council area, 2006 - 2031
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Inve
rcly
de
Ea
st D
un
ba
rto
nsh
ire
Sh
etla
nd
Isl
an
ds
Ab
erd
ee
n C
ity
Du
nd
ee
City
We
st D
un
ba
rto
nsh
ire
Re
nfr
ew
shir
e
Eile
an
Sia
r
Lo
ch L
om
on
d &
Tro
ssa
chs
NP
Ea
st A
yrsh
ire
Mid
loth
ian
No
rth
Ayr
shir
e
Du
mfr
ies
& G
allo
wa
y
Mo
ray
Arg
yll &
Bu
te
Gla
sgo
w C
ity
So
uth
Ayr
shir
e
Ea
st R
en
fre
wsh
ire
No
rth
La
na
rksh
ire
An
gu
s
SC
OT
LA
ND
Fa
lkir
k
Cla
ckm
an
na
nsh
ire
So
uth
La
na
rksh
ire
Hig
hla
nd
Stir
ling
Fife
Ork
ne
y Is
lan
ds
Sco
ttis
h B
ord
ers
Ed
inb
urg
h,
City
of
Ca
irn
go
rms
NP
Ab
erd
ee
nsh
ire
Ea
st L
oth
ian
We
st L
oth
ian
Pe
rth
& K
inro
ss
Pe
rce
nta
ge
ch
an
ge
15General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Projected population change by age group, 2006-2031, City of Edinburgh
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Per
cen
tag
e ch
ang
e
Edinburgh, City of Scotland
16General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Projected population change by age group, 2006-2031, Dumfries & Galloway
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Per
cen
tag
e ch
ang
e
Dumfries & Gallow ay Scotland
17General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Projected population change by age group, 2006-2031, Inverclyde
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Per
cen
tag
e ch
ang
e
Inverclyde Scotland
18General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Starting age structure
19General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Migrants as percentage of population by age, 2002-2006, City of Edinburgh
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 &over
Single year of age
Per
centa
ge o
f ag
e g
roup
In migrants Out migrants Net migrants
20General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Migrants as percentage of population by age, 2002-2006, Dumfries & Galloway
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 &over
Single year of age
Per
cen
tage o
f ag
e gro
up
In migrants Out migrants Net migrants
21General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Migrants as percentage of population by age, 2002-2006, Inverclyde
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 &over
Single year of age
Per
cent
age
of a
ge g
roup
In migrants Out migrants Net migrants
22General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Developments
• ‘Tayside Report’• Improved migration data on GROS website• Improve migration estimates: inter-departmental taskforce• Data used to produce 2006-based sub-national projections
has been made available in POPGROUP format• Work ongoing to provide datazone level data and guidance
to allow councils to produce sub-council projections• Strategic Development Planning Authority area
projections due later this year• More Variant Projections?
23General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Summary• Referred to in the HNDA guidance
• Usually produced every two years
• Available from www.gro-scotland.gov.uk for Council areas, NHS Board areas and National Parks by single year of age and sex
• 2008-based Sub-National Projections due late 2009 or early 2010
• Consistent across Scotland and easy to interpret
• Trend-based so don’t account for changes in house building, policy or economic circumstances
24General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Contact information
Andrew White
Tel: 0131 314 4388
GROS Customer services
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 0131 314 4243