Session VII: National population projections · 2020. 8. 3. · Session VII: National population...
Transcript of Session VII: National population projections · 2020. 8. 3. · Session VII: National population...
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Session VII:National population projections
9 March 2016
Cheryl Sawyer, Lina BassarskyPopulation Estimates and Projections Section
www.unpopulation.org
Regional Workshop on the Production of Population ProjectionsAddis Ababa, 7-11 March 2016
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Outline
I. Software packages for population projectionsII. Step-by-step guide to setting up a national
population projection in Spectrum
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Software packages for population projections
o Packages implement cohort-component methodo Output a variety of demographic measures for
any specified year of the projection periodo Packages reviewed:
– Spectrum (Avenir Health)– Rural-Urban Projection (RUP, US Census Bureau)– Mortpak PROJCT (UNPD)
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SpectrumSPECTRUM is a suite of easy to use policy models which provide policymakers with an analytical tool to support the decision making process.
SPECTRUM consists of several software models including: o DemProj: Demography o FamPlan: Family Planning o LiST: Lives Saved Tool (Child Survival) o AIM: AIDS Impact Model o Goals: Cost and impact of HIV Interventiono Resource Needs Module: Costs of implementing an
HIV/AIDS program o RAPID: Resources for the Awareness of Population
Impacts on Development o TIME: TB Impact Model and Estimates
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o Advantages: – Reliable and well tested– Appealing user-interface– User base is large, but concentrated among health and
policy professionals (UNAIDS)– Support, on-site training available
o Disadvantages– Ease of use means some loss of flexibility in inputs– Complex package due to integration into a variety of
other tools (AIDS, POLICY, RAPID, etc.)– Obtaining results can be a bit cumbersome
Using Spectrum
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Obtaining and installing Spectrum
o Updated regularly; check back for most recent version
o Current version is 5.41o For this workshop: on
memory stick at E:/Tools/Spectrum– SpecInstall.exe– WPPDataInstall.exe– SpectrumManualE.pdf
www.avenirhealth.org/software‐spectrum.php
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RUP
o US Census Bureau Rural-Urban Projection Program
o Available interfaces:– RUPEX – Excel interface– NEW: Demographic Analysis and Population
Projections System (DAPPS)• User-friendly spreadsheet interface for RUP
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RUP
o Advantages:– Reliable and well-tested methodology– Flexibility in inputs– Large user base– Support and training available– Well-developed toolkits
• Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PASEX)• Subnational Toolkit
o Disadvantages– Data format of input file text-based and not self-
explanatory– Flexibility of inputs puts the burden on user to specify
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Obtaining and installing RUP applications
o For this workshop: on memory stick at E:/Tools/US Census Bureau/USCBtools.exe
o Installs RUPEX, PASEX, Subnational Toolkit
o Separate installation for DAPPS: …/DAPPS/Dapps20.exe
http://www.census.gov/population/international/software/rup/
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DAPPS Interface
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DAPPS Interface
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Mortpak PROJCT
o Simple cohort component projection toolo Useful for small applications such as checking
census consistencyo Limited utility for comprehensive projection
outputs
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Mortpak PROJCT
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Spectrum
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Create a new projection
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Projection manager
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Projection manager
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Projection manager
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Spectrum menus
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DemProj menu
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Projection parameters
Uncheck this box to enter population by 5‐year age group
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First‐year population
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Total fertility rate
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Age‐specific fertility options
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Age‐specific fertility model
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Age‐specific fertility distribution
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Sex ratio at birth
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Life expectancy
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Model life table selection
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Total net migrants by sex
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Per cent distribution of male migrants
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Thank you
Questions?>> until 11 March:
>> After 11 March: [email protected]@un.org
Regional Workshop on the Production of Population ProjectionsAddis Ababa, 7-11 March 2016