Poland | Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES

11
Poland | Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES BIAŁYSTOK, BIELSKO-BIAŁA, BYDGOSZCZ, CZĘSTOCHOWA, KIELCE, LUBLIN, OLSZTYN, RADOM, RZESZÓW, TORUŃ. Q1 2019

Transcript of Poland | Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES

Q1 2019
DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE
8
3 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 | Colliers International3 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
2018 was not a time of intense activity among developers in large-size retail in regional cities. However, many renovations and modernisations of existing facilities were observed, especially in terms of their gastronomic offer. Small convenience shopping projects with an area of less than 5,000 m2 were built in regional cities, as well as standalone stores, both from the food and non-food sectors.
There are currently 70 shopping centres in the 10 cities under analysis supporting approximately 2.3 million consumers in total. On average, one shopping centre services 33,000 potential customers, and most of them are in Czstochowa and Toru, and the least in Rzeszów and Lublin.
Based on GfK Polonia’s data on the purchasing power of people in regional cities (in most cases above the national average), it can be estimated that these markets have a total value of approximately PLN 80 billion per year. On average, the purchasing power of a regional city inhabitant ranges between PLN 25,000 and 40,000 annually. Statistically, with almost 2 million m2 of the existing space, there are PLN 42,000 annually per square metre of shopping centre in these locations – the most in Czstochowa and Olsztyn, and the least in Rzeszów and Lublin.
INTRODUCTION
TOTAL STOCK (m²)
TOTAL PURCHASING POWER OF INHABITANTS (PLN)
79 billion
33,730
9,000
2
1.0-6.7 24-30
4 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 | Colliers International
There are 70 schemes operating in regional cities with an area of approximately 1.9 million m2 of shopping centre space, which accounts for almost 17% of the total stock in Poland. The largest retail market is Lublin (14 properties), while the smallest is Olsztyn (121,000 m2 in 5 schemes). The density of retail shopping centres in regional cities is highly diverse – from 600 m2/1,000 inhabitants in Radom and Czstochowa to over 1,000 m2/1,000 inhabitants in Rzeszów, Bielsko-Biaa and Lublin.
Similarly to the entire Poland, the traditional shopping centre is the dominant format in regional cities, accounting for 90% of total stock. There are approximately 110,000 m² of retail park space in smaller cities, the most being in Lublin and Biaystok. In Biaystok, Lublin, Bydgoszcz and Rzeszów, outlet centres operate with a total area of 72,000 m².
In 2018, moderate real estate development activity was recorded in regional cities. In total, less than 20,000 m² of shopping centre space was delivered to the market. The SMART Outlet in Bydgoszcz (11,000 m²) was the largest new facility to open in regional cities. Developers focused mainly on the modernisation of existing centres. Renovations were finished in Auchan Produkcyjna in Biaystok, Auchan Rejewskiego in Bydgoszcz, Bielawy SC in Toru, Lublin Plaza in Lublin as well as E.Leclerc in Radom.
STOCK AND NEW SUPPLY
*Gross leasable area Source: Colliers International, January 2019
Traditional shopping centre Retail park Outlet centre Number of schemes
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
4 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
Shopping centre City GLA*
Real Estate
Zielone Arkady Bydgoszcz 51,000 2015 ECE
Galeria Warmiska Olsztyn 41,500 2014 NEPI Rock
Castle
Group
Strus
ADV Por Property
Source: Colliers International, January 2019
THE BIGGEST SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES COMPLETED IN THE YEARS 2014-2018
NEW SUPPLY AND SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION (M2 GLA*)
*Gross leasable area Source: Colliers International, January 2019
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Developers’ activity in regional cities will remain moderate in the medium term and will mainly cover modernisations, extensions and constructions of small convenience shopping centres. At the end of 2018, approximately 10,000 m² in total were under construction in these locations. Plaza Park in Kielce with an area of 5,500 m² was the largest shopping centre under construction, which is being built as a convenience retail project in a large residential investment.
Several portfolio purchases were made by investors last year, for example shopping centres in cities including Toru, Radom, Czstochowa, Kielce and Olsztyn. The largest retail transactions included the sale of Bielawa centres by Aerium Group to Newbridge and Aura Centrum in Olsztyn via Rockspring to NEPI/Rockcastle. Also, four shopping centres from the portfolio of 28 properties purchased by Chariot Top Group from Ares/AXA/Apollo Rida are in regional cities. These centres will be systematically taken over by EPP in the coming years.
DENSITY OF SHOPPING CENTRE SPACE (M2/1,000 INHABITANTS)
Source: Colliers International, January 2019
Density
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
769
1,142
709
593
782
1,137
699
598
1,262
681
5 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
6 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 | Colliers International
Poland | Retail market
The stable situation in regional markets means that the demand for space in shopping centres is mainly reflected in recommercialisation transactions (new leases, extensions and relocations). The number of retail chain debuts in these markets is very limited.
The largest transactions recorded in 2018 were those leased in SMART Outlet in Bydgoszcz, including: Media Expert, Home & Deco, Martes Sport and CCC. The commercialisation of the Skende Shopping in Lublin continued last year, which included store openings by Go Sport, TK Maxx and Diverse.
New fashion stores opened in Outlet Biaystok (Guess), Zielone Arkady in Bydgoszcz (Desigual), Millennium Hall in Rzeszów (Mango) and Plaza Lublin (Sinsay, 4F, Kazar and Wojas). Another highlight of the year was the opening of the first e-obuwie.pl store in regional markets in Galeria Rzeszów. In 2018, chains such as Hebe (Galeria Pomorska and Auchan in Bydgoszcz), Smyk (Tarasy Zamkowe Lublin), KiK (Galeria nad Potokiem in Radom), Jysk (Tatary RP in Lublin) and Maxi. Zoo (Galeria Olimp in Lublin) were active in regional cities.
Concepts from the entertainment and leisure sector also developed in regional cities – Cityfit fitness
DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE
Vacancy rate
0 2 4 6 8 10
6 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
clubs were opened in Toru Plaza and Lublin Plaza, and Just Gym in Tatary RP in Lublin. Interesting events included the opening of a rope park with an area of 6,500 m² in the vicinity of Gemini Park in Bielsko-Biaa.
The growing popularity of eating out is causing an increase for demand for food and beverage outlets in shopping centres also in regional cities. 2018 saw the opening of McDonald’s in Gemini Park in Bielsko-Biaa, Costa Coffee in Millenium Hall in Rzeszów (debut in the market), Meet & Fit in Atrium Felicity and Jumi Zumi in Zamkowe Tarasy in Lublin.
Vacancy rates vary depending on the market. At the end of 2018, the highest vacancies were noted in Czstochowa (6.7%) and Lublin (3.3%), and the lowest in Olsztyn (1%) and Rzeszów (1.1%). The change of food operators, the increase in demand from non-food discounters and the development of entertainment and leisure concepts are influencing vacancy rates.
POPULATION PER SHOPPING CENTRE
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
Number of inhabitants in the city Number of inhabitants per shopping centre
0 100,000 400,000300,000200,000
Source: Colliers International, GfK, 2018
Purchasing power per m2 of shopping centre
60,00040,00020,0000
40,471
34,700
46,977
57,190
44,962
30,143
51,844
42,746
26,350
49,356
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
7 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
8 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 | Colliers International
Poland | Retail market
Rental rates in regional cities are showing a slightly downward trend. The highest rents, for 100-150 m² for the fashion sector in a prime shopping centre, are EUR 28-30 m²/month in Bydgoszcz and EUR 24-26 m²/month in Radom and Czstochowa.
Market practice, also in regional cities, is becoming more flexible in terms of leases. Strategic tenants for a centre are being offered incentive packages that include participation in fit-out costs, leases based only on turnover, shorter rental periods, temporary reductions and freezing of service charge costs.
New legal regulations introduced in Poland last year, including a gradually implemented trading ban on Sundays, may bring changes in lease conditions in the near future.
RENTAL RATES AND OTHER LEASE CONDITIONS
RENTAL RATES (EUR/M2/MONTH)
Source: Colliers International, January 2019 Rental rate level
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
26-28
26-28
26-28
26-28
26-28
28-30
24-26
24-26
24-26
24-26
8 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
9 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 | Colliers International
Poland | Retail market
Last year, renovations and modernisations were particularly visible in regional cities, and property owners are consistently announcing changes. This phenomenon is a natural consequence of the shopping centre stock aging, which were completed at the end of the 1990s. The modernisations of food courts are worth mentioning, which result from a slow change in consumer behaviour with eating out becoming popular not only in the largest agglomerations. An example of a successful change in this regard was Bielawy shopping centre in Toru.
The second wave of interest in regional cities is coming from homeware and DIY chains. In 2018, a new Leroy Merlin store in Olsztyn and an Agata in Lublin were opened, while in 2019 a Castorama will open in Bydgoszcz and a Bricomarche in is due to be completed in Kielce. DIY chains are becoming important tenants in shopping centres, also in smaller urban centres.
Changes and modifications of formats introduced by leading retail chains are challenges that have been faced by shopping centres for a few years. Examples of relocations and space enlargements
TRENDS
include CCC in Galeria Echo in Kielce (from approximately 670 m² to 1,080 m²). This trend was clearly visible in 2018 and will continue.
The retail market in regional cities, as in the largest agglomerations, is changing due to the rapid development of e-commerce. A clear signal was the opening of the first e-obuwie.pl store in a regional market in Galeria Rzeszów last year. Also, IKEA is expanding its multichannel service to new cities (a new collection point at Auchan Produkcyjna in Biaystok). It should be expected that offline and online shopping will become increasingly available also for consumers in regional cities.
The expansion of new discount non-food chains has also reached regional cities. TEDi stores were opened in Bielsko-Biaa and Radom, Dealz in Kielce and Action in Czstochowa. Rapid development is observed in these locations among chains already present on the Polish market, such as Pepco and KiK. This group of low-budget tenants will create demand for space in shopping centres in regional cities in the coming years.
9 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
To achieve success in today’s market, your company needs solutions that use its potential, resources and take advantage of all opportunities. The ACROSS Retail platform provides full access to all services on the real estate market shaped by the needs of a tenant, owner, developer or investor in the retail sector.
ACROSS Retail is the sum of our experts’ experience, a tailor-made service package and a dedicated multi-skilled advisory team that understands your business – all available for you in one place. Let us help you untap your potential.
YOUR BUSINESS OBJECTIVES
Research & Consultancy
Colliers International Pl. Pisudskiego 3 00-078 Warszawa
Copyright © 2019 Colliers International.