Q1 2019
DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE
8
3 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 |
Colliers International3 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN
REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 | Colliers International
2018 was not a time of intense activity among developers in
large-size retail in regional cities. However, many renovations and
modernisations of existing facilities were observed, especially in
terms of their gastronomic offer. Small convenience shopping
projects with an area of less than 5,000 m2 were built in regional
cities, as well as standalone stores, both from the food and
non-food sectors.
There are currently 70 shopping centres in the 10 cities under
analysis supporting approximately 2.3 million consumers in total.
On average, one shopping centre services 33,000 potential
customers, and most of them are in Czstochowa and Toru, and the
least in Rzeszów and Lublin.
Based on GfK Polonia’s data on the purchasing power of people in
regional cities (in most cases above the national average), it can
be estimated that these markets have a total value of approximately
PLN 80 billion per year. On average, the purchasing power of a
regional city inhabitant ranges between PLN 25,000 and 40,000
annually. Statistically, with almost 2 million m2 of the existing
space, there are PLN 42,000 annually per square metre of shopping
centre in these locations – the most in Czstochowa and Olsztyn, and
the least in Rzeszów and Lublin.
INTRODUCTION
TOTAL STOCK (m²)
TOTAL PURCHASING POWER OF INHABITANTS (PLN)
79 billion
33,730
9,000
2
1.0-6.7 24-30
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Colliers International
There are 70 schemes operating in regional cities with an area of
approximately 1.9 million m2 of shopping centre space, which
accounts for almost 17% of the total stock in Poland. The largest
retail market is Lublin (14 properties), while the smallest is
Olsztyn (121,000 m2 in 5 schemes). The density of retail shopping
centres in regional cities is highly diverse – from 600 m2/1,000
inhabitants in Radom and Czstochowa to over 1,000 m2/1,000
inhabitants in Rzeszów, Bielsko-Biaa and Lublin.
Similarly to the entire Poland, the traditional shopping centre is
the dominant format in regional cities, accounting for 90% of total
stock. There are approximately 110,000 m² of retail park space in
smaller cities, the most being in Lublin and Biaystok. In Biaystok,
Lublin, Bydgoszcz and Rzeszów, outlet centres operate with a total
area of 72,000 m².
In 2018, moderate real estate development activity was recorded in
regional cities. In total, less than 20,000 m² of shopping centre
space was delivered to the market. The SMART Outlet in Bydgoszcz
(11,000 m²) was the largest new facility to open in regional
cities. Developers focused mainly on the modernisation of existing
centres. Renovations were finished in Auchan Produkcyjna in
Biaystok, Auchan Rejewskiego in Bydgoszcz, Bielawy SC in Toru,
Lublin Plaza in Lublin as well as E.Leclerc in Radom.
STOCK AND NEW SUPPLY
*Gross leasable area Source: Colliers International, January
2019
Traditional shopping centre Retail park Outlet centre Number of
schemes
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
4 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 |
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Shopping centre City GLA*
Real Estate
Zielone Arkady Bydgoszcz 51,000 2015 ECE
Galeria Warmiska Olsztyn 41,500 2014 NEPI Rock
Castle
Group
Strus
ADV Por Property
Source: Colliers International, January 2019
THE BIGGEST SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES COMPLETED IN THE
YEARS 2014-2018
NEW SUPPLY AND SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION (M2 GLA*)
*Gross leasable area Source: Colliers International, January
2019
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Developers’ activity in regional cities will remain moderate in the
medium term and will mainly cover modernisations, extensions and
constructions of small convenience shopping centres. At the end of
2018, approximately 10,000 m² in total were under construction in
these locations. Plaza Park in Kielce with an area of 5,500 m² was
the largest shopping centre under construction, which is being
built as a convenience retail project in a large residential
investment.
Several portfolio purchases were made by investors last year, for
example shopping centres in cities including Toru, Radom,
Czstochowa, Kielce and Olsztyn. The largest retail transactions
included the sale of Bielawa centres by Aerium Group to Newbridge
and Aura Centrum in Olsztyn via Rockspring to NEPI/Rockcastle.
Also, four shopping centres from the portfolio of 28 properties
purchased by Chariot Top Group from Ares/AXA/Apollo Rida are in
regional cities. These centres will be systematically taken over by
EPP in the coming years.
DENSITY OF SHOPPING CENTRE SPACE (M2/1,000 INHABITANTS)
Source: Colliers International, January 2019
Density
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
769
1,142
709
593
782
1,137
699
598
1,262
681
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Poland | Retail market
The stable situation in regional markets means that the demand for
space in shopping centres is mainly reflected in
recommercialisation transactions (new leases, extensions and
relocations). The number of retail chain debuts in these markets is
very limited.
The largest transactions recorded in 2018 were those leased in
SMART Outlet in Bydgoszcz, including: Media Expert, Home &
Deco, Martes Sport and CCC. The commercialisation of the Skende
Shopping in Lublin continued last year, which included store
openings by Go Sport, TK Maxx and Diverse.
New fashion stores opened in Outlet Biaystok (Guess), Zielone
Arkady in Bydgoszcz (Desigual), Millennium Hall in Rzeszów (Mango)
and Plaza Lublin (Sinsay, 4F, Kazar and Wojas). Another highlight
of the year was the opening of the first e-obuwie.pl store in
regional markets in Galeria Rzeszów. In 2018, chains such as Hebe
(Galeria Pomorska and Auchan in Bydgoszcz), Smyk (Tarasy Zamkowe
Lublin), KiK (Galeria nad Potokiem in Radom), Jysk (Tatary RP in
Lublin) and Maxi. Zoo (Galeria Olimp in Lublin) were active in
regional cities.
Concepts from the entertainment and leisure sector also developed
in regional cities – Cityfit fitness
DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE
Vacancy rate
0 2 4 6 8 10
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clubs were opened in Toru Plaza and Lublin Plaza, and Just Gym in
Tatary RP in Lublin. Interesting events included the opening of a
rope park with an area of 6,500 m² in the vicinity of Gemini Park
in Bielsko-Biaa.
The growing popularity of eating out is causing an increase for
demand for food and beverage outlets in shopping centres also in
regional cities. 2018 saw the opening of McDonald’s in Gemini Park
in Bielsko-Biaa, Costa Coffee in Millenium Hall in Rzeszów (debut
in the market), Meet & Fit in Atrium Felicity and Jumi Zumi in
Zamkowe Tarasy in Lublin.
Vacancy rates vary depending on the market. At the end of 2018, the
highest vacancies were noted in Czstochowa (6.7%) and Lublin
(3.3%), and the lowest in Olsztyn (1%) and Rzeszów (1.1%). The
change of food operators, the increase in demand from non-food
discounters and the development of entertainment and leisure
concepts are influencing vacancy rates.
POPULATION PER SHOPPING CENTRE
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
Number of inhabitants in the city Number of inhabitants per
shopping centre
0 100,000 400,000300,000200,000
Source: Colliers International, GfK, 2018
Purchasing power per m2 of shopping centre
60,00040,00020,0000
40,471
34,700
46,977
57,190
44,962
30,143
51,844
42,746
26,350
49,356
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
7 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 |
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8 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 |
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Poland | Retail market
Rental rates in regional cities are showing a slightly downward
trend. The highest rents, for 100-150 m² for the fashion sector in
a prime shopping centre, are EUR 28-30 m²/month in Bydgoszcz and
EUR 24-26 m²/month in Radom and Czstochowa.
Market practice, also in regional cities, is becoming more flexible
in terms of leases. Strategic tenants for a centre are being
offered incentive packages that include participation in fit-out
costs, leases based only on turnover, shorter rental periods,
temporary reductions and freezing of service charge costs.
New legal regulations introduced in Poland last year, including a
gradually implemented trading ban on Sundays, may bring changes in
lease conditions in the near future.
RENTAL RATES AND OTHER LEASE CONDITIONS
RENTAL RATES (EUR/M2/MONTH)
Source: Colliers International, January 2019 Rental rate
level
BIAYSTOK
BIELSKO-BIAA
BYDGOSZCZ
CZSTOCHOWA
KIELCE
LUBLIN
OLSZTYN
RADOM
RZESZÓW
TORU
26-28
26-28
26-28
26-28
26-28
28-30
24-26
24-26
24-26
24-26
8 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 |
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9 Rynek handlowy | CENTRA HANDLOWE W MIASTACH REGIONALNYCH | 2019 |
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Poland | Retail market
Last year, renovations and modernisations were particularly visible
in regional cities, and property owners are consistently announcing
changes. This phenomenon is a natural consequence of the shopping
centre stock aging, which were completed at the end of the 1990s.
The modernisations of food courts are worth mentioning, which
result from a slow change in consumer behaviour with eating out
becoming popular not only in the largest agglomerations. An example
of a successful change in this regard was Bielawy shopping centre
in Toru.
The second wave of interest in regional cities is coming from
homeware and DIY chains. In 2018, a new Leroy Merlin store in
Olsztyn and an Agata in Lublin were opened, while in 2019 a
Castorama will open in Bydgoszcz and a Bricomarche in is due to be
completed in Kielce. DIY chains are becoming important tenants in
shopping centres, also in smaller urban centres.
Changes and modifications of formats introduced by leading retail
chains are challenges that have been faced by shopping centres for
a few years. Examples of relocations and space enlargements
TRENDS
include CCC in Galeria Echo in Kielce (from approximately 670 m² to
1,080 m²). This trend was clearly visible in 2018 and will
continue.
The retail market in regional cities, as in the largest
agglomerations, is changing due to the rapid development of
e-commerce. A clear signal was the opening of the first e-obuwie.pl
store in a regional market in Galeria Rzeszów last year. Also, IKEA
is expanding its multichannel service to new cities (a new
collection point at Auchan Produkcyjna in Biaystok). It should be
expected that offline and online shopping will become increasingly
available also for consumers in regional cities.
The expansion of new discount non-food chains has also reached
regional cities. TEDi stores were opened in Bielsko-Biaa and Radom,
Dealz in Kielce and Action in Czstochowa. Rapid development is
observed in these locations among chains already present on the
Polish market, such as Pepco and KiK. This group of low-budget
tenants will create demand for space in shopping centres in
regional cities in the coming years.
9 Retail market | SHOPPING CENTRES IN REGIONAL CITIES | 2019 |
Colliers International
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