Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference Reports/Company...Signs of improvement in oil companies’...

28
Kristian Johansen Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference CEO 14 th September, 2016

Transcript of Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference Reports/Company...Signs of improvement in oil companies’...

  • Kristian Johansen

    Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference

    CEO14th September, 2016

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 2

    All statements in this presentation other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict and are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove accurate. These factors include TGS’ reliance on a cyclical industry and principal customers, TGS’ ability to continue to expand markets for licensing of data, and TGS’ ability to acquire and process data products at costs commensurate with profitability. Actual results may differ materially from those expected or projected in the forward-looking statements. TGS undertakes no responsibility or obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements for any reason.

    Forward-Looking Statements

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 3

    Introduction

    Market Overview

    TGS Strategy

    Q2 2016 Financial Highlights

    Appendix (financial information)

    Agenda

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 4

    The World’s largest geoscience data company Traded on Oslo Stock Exchange, part of OBX Index (25 most liquid shares) Headquarters in Oslo and Houston (Operational) Regional offices in London, Perth, Calgary, Mexico City and Rio de Janeiro

    The Leading multi-client data library covering frontier & mature basins ~3,000,000 km 2D data, ~500,000 sq. km 3D data and ~8,600,000 digital well logs Other data types include CSEM, multibeam, coring, gravity, magnetic, interpretive products Strategy to enter frontier regions, grow library and apply new technologies as basin matures

    Asset light and multi-client business model Flexibility through no vessel ownership – few long-term capital commitments Investment decisions driven by financial returns rather than asset utilization Client relationships – leading global sales & marketing team; exploration partner to E&Ps

    Solid balance sheet backing TGS strategy No debt and strong cash position allow counter-cyclical investment Average dividend yield of 4.2% over last seven years 10-year average return on capital employed of ~40%

    This is TGS

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 5

    Introduction

    Market Overview

    TGS Strategy

    Q2 2016 Financial Highlights

    Appendix (financial information)

    Agenda

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 6

    Year on Year decline in spending Second consecutive 20%+ decline in E&P spending

    expected this year Impact on exploration budgets expected to be larger

    Near-term volatility expected Seismic demand likely to remain weak through 2016 Near-term, greater variability of demand between

    quarters and across regions Seismic spend will likely be prioritized in existing

    program areas that have premium economics

    2017 E&P spending under pressure Most initial E&P Spending surveys indicate further

    decline in spending

    Challenging Market for Exploration

    6

    Change in Global E&P Spending

    Source: SEB ResearchC

    hang

    e ye

    ar-o

    n-ye

    ar (%

    )

    7

    16

    23

    3

    -25

    8

    16

    6

    21

    2723

    26

    1922

    -8

    1519

    1411

    2

    -26-27

    -10

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    E20

    17E

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 7

    Global Oversupply Moderating Global oversupply is anticipated to continue to moderate

    through 2017 from a Q4 2015 high Market balance from Q3 2017 but supply response continuing

    to create volatility

    Need to Replace / Grow Reserves Only 2.7bn barrels of new conventional oil supply was

    discovered in 2015, the lowest since 1947 (Wood Mackenzie) Combined with increasing demand, lack of new discoveries

    will drive increased exploration spending as oil companies look to replace/grow reserves – the key question is timing

    Long-Term Demand Increasing Global energy demand is expected to grow about 25% by

    2040 driven by non-OECD countries Oil and natural gas expected to meet ~60% of global energy

    demand in 2040

    Long-Term Outlook Positive

    7

    0.50.7

    0.5

    2.01.7

    2.0

    1.3

    2.3

    1.4

    0.80.4

    0.80.4 0.4

    -0.6-0.2

    Global Production / Consumption (mn b/d)

    Source: EIA

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 8

    Seismic sector has underperformed financially ROCE below cost of capital Capital intensive and low entry barriers Critical product for end-user

    Gradual shift from proprietary to multi-client Seismic contractors taking more risk E&Ps tendering seismic acquisition as multi-client Higher prefunding but potentially lower returns

    Fragmented market offering consolidation opportunities Number of players constant since peak despite seismic

    spending falling by 2/3 Consolidation would provide the industry significant benefits

    over the course of cycles

    Key Trends in the Seismic Industry

    0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

    10.0

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-E 2017-E

    Seismic Spending (BUSD)

    Other DP/Imaging Multi-Client Contract

    38%38%

    40% 38%

    45%

    63%59%

    Source: S&P Capital IQ; TGS*Global marine seismic industry excluding TGS

    Source: Fearnley Securities; TGS

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Seismic* Return on Average Capital Employed

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 9

    Introduction

    Market Overview

    TGS Strategy

    Q2 2016 Financial Highlights

    Appendix (financial information)

    Agenda

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 10

    Areas with Faster Payback will Likely Recover First

    Bre

    ak-e

    ven

    oil p

    rice

    Payback

    Chart highlights areas that are likely to see incremental seismic activity first as market conditions improve

    First movers will be areas with the best economics, or a combination of break-even oil prices and payback period

    Although initial focus will be on first mover areas, TGS will maintain a portfolio approach to investments to capture higher-return opportunities in more frontier regions

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 11

    Reacting quickly to right size the company Operating costs down 30% year-on-year Operating costs down 51% since 2014 Variable pay drives alignment with staff

    Strong correlation between cash inflow and cash outflow Investment down 54% to MUSD 230 Large reduction in vessel rates since peak Prefunding of investments stable at 40-45%

    Fast & Flexible Business Model

    11

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16

    MU

    SD

    Personnel and Other Operating Costs*

    * Adjusted for restructuring costs and larger impairments of operating items

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    MU

    SD

    Free Cash Flow Cash inflow Cash outflow

    Cash Outflow correlates to Cash Inflow

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 12

    Balance sheet remains healthy throughdown-cycle Cash balance per Q2 2016 of 162 MUSD Undrawn Revolving Credit Facility of 75 MUSD

    Strong share price relative to sector TGS market capitalization of 1.8 BUSD Represents ~57% of industry (ex-SLB) Strong currency to explore inorganic investment opportunities

    Solid Balance Sheet Backing TGS strategy

    12

    823

    1167

    255

    3716217168

    66

    Assets Equity and Liability

    Multi-client Library

    Receivables

    Cash

    OtherGoodwill

    Equity

    Non-current liabilities

    Current liabilities

    Assets Equity & Liability

    1,786

    570

    510

    160 72

    26 17 8 3

    TGS CGG PGS SPU ION PLCS EMGS MCG SBX

    Market Capitalization (in USD millions)

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 13

    Dolphin library acquisition Agreement in principle to buy

    the majority of the Dolphin MC library together with PGS

    Enhancing TGS’ already strong position in areas such as the Barents Sea, the North Sea, NW Africa and Australia

    Limited initial cash outlay Definitive agreement

    expected in the near future

    TGS is actively seeking consolidation opportunities through strategic library acquisitions Polarcus library 2015 Dolphin library 2016 Other opportunities monitored

    closely

    Strategic library acquisitions

    13

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 14

    Long-term value creation track-record Annual total return of 11% since IPO in 1997 Well above both the oil service segment and the general

    stock market

    Counter-cyclical investment Strong cash generation is enabling the company to both

    invest counter-cyclically as well as paying dividends to shareholders

    Policy of paying dividends in line with long-term underlying cash flow Aim to keep a stable quarterly dividend through the year

    (measured in USD) Actual quarterly dividend level paid will be subject to

    continuous evaluation of market outlook, cash flow expectations and balance sheet development

    Solid Value Creation Over Time

    14

    Share price development*

    * Values in NOK, adjusted for dividends** Current OSX components that have traded since TGS IPO (equal weighted)

    0100200300400500600700800900

    1,0001,100

    Avg. annual return since TGS IPO in 1997

    TGS 11.4%S&P 500 7.7%Oil Services** 5.8%

    4 NOK

    5 NOK6 NOK

    8 NOK 8.5 NOK

    8.5 NOK

    USD 0.15per Quarter

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

    USD

    per

    sha

    re

    Year of Payment* Quarterly Dividends, defined in USD from 2016

    Historical NOK dividends converted to USD using FX rate on ex-dividend date

    Q3Q2Q1

    Dividend paid* (2010 – 2016)

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 15

    Q3 Investment Focus

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 16

    Free cash flow generation

    Consistency in delivering product quality

    Significant cost efficiencies

    Intense client focus

    2016 Key Objectives

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 17

    Introduction

    Market Overview

    TGS Strategy

    Q2 2016 Financial Highlights

    Appendix (financial information)

    Agenda

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 18

    Q2 2016 Financial Highlights

    190

    298

    172 140 169 13264

    114

    050

    100150200250300

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Total Revenues

    3% Y/Y

    71111

    37 38 46 31-19

    24

    -40%

    -20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    EBIT *

    EBIT EBIT Margin* Earnings before interest and taxes and excluding larger

    impairments and restructuring costs

    8415

    110

    -76

    49-20

    63

    -35

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Free Cash Flow *

    * Defined as cash flow from operational activities minus operational cash investments in multi-client projects

    NSA52%

    Europe27%

    AMEAP9%

    Other12%

    Q2 2016 Revenue Distribution

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 19

    Summary Signs of improvement in oil companies’ willingness to invest in seismic data during Q2 2016,

    however, the market is expected to remain challenging and volatile in the near term

    Long term fundamentals continues to be positive Global oversupply moderating Need to replace / grow reserves Long-term demand increasing

    Asset-light, focused multi-client strategy continues to outperform Cost control, disciplined counter-cyclical investment and balance sheet strength positions TGS to

    enhance its leading position

    Updated 2016 guidance: New operational multi-client investments of approximately 230 MUSD

    Additional multi-client investments expected from sales of existing surveys with risk sharing arrangements

    Multi-client investments are expected to be prefunded 40% to 45%

  • Thank you

    ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved.

    Kristian JohansenCEO

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 21

    Introduction

    Market Overview

    TGS Strategy

    Q2 2016 Financial Highlights

    Appendix (financial information)

    Agenda

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 22

    9 9

    6 5 5 53 3

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Proprietary revenues

    130

    226

    72 82 90 9038

    84

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Late sales revenues

    3% Y/Y

    51 62

    94

    5374

    3723 26

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Prefunding revenues

    190

    298

    172 140 169 13264

    114

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Total revenues

    Net Revenues

    -50% Y/Y

    -33% Y/Y -18% Y/Y

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 23

    NSA51%

    Europe19%

    AMEAP16%

    Other14%

    Q2 2015

    NSA52%

    Europe27%

    AMEAP9%

    Other12%

    Q2 2016

    Net Revenue Breakdown

    2D15%

    3D75%

    GPS10%

    Q2 2015

    2D48%

    3D42%

    GPS10%

    Q2 2016

    23

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 24

    3237

    25 24 2228

    18 17

    05

    10152025303540

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Operating expenses *

    -30% Y/Y

    * Include personnel costs and other operating expenses. Adjusted for restructuring costs and larger impairments of operating items

    81143

    10574 99

    230

    62 69

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Amortization and impairment *

    8415

    110

    -76

    49-20

    63

    -35

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Free cash flow *

    Operating Expenses, EBIT, Free Cash Flow

    62% - rate

    71111

    37 38 46 31

    -1924

    -40%

    -20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    -40-20

    020406080

    100120

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    EBIT *

    EBIT EBIT Margin

    * Q1 and Q2 2016 reflects the new amortization policy effective from 1 January 2016

    * Earnings before interest and taxes and excluding larger impairments and restructuring costs

    * Defined as cash flow from operational activities minus operational cash investments in multi-client projects

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 25

    837 818876

    919976

    839 830 823

    700

    750

    800

    850

    900

    950

    1,000

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Multi-client library - NBV

    93126

    163116 135

    8853 62

    0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Pref

    undi

    ng ra

    tio

    Ope

    ratio

    nal i

    nves

    tmen

    ts

    Operational investments and prefunding ratio

    Operational investments Prefunding ratio

    Multi-Client Library

    17%

    1%4%

    8%

    17%

    1%

    52%

    0% 0%7%

    19% 21%

    9%

    44%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Fullyamortized

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD WIP

    Net revenues Net book value

    Net revenues vs net book value – year of completion

    270

    381

    609

    427

    122

    451

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD WIP

    Original investments Net Book Value

    20 %

    34%

    52%

    22%

    1%14%

    70%

    Investments – year of completion

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 26

    Q2 2016 Income StatementUSD million, except EPS Q2 2016 Q2 2015 Change in %Net revenues 114 140 -18%Cost of goods sold – proprietary and other 0.8 0.1 1435%

    Amortization of multi-client library 62% 69 74 -6%

    Gross margin 44 66 -33%Personnel costs 11 17 -37%

    Other operating expenses 9 9 -3%

    Cost of stock options 0.3 0.9 -61%

    Depreciation 3 3 -7%

    Operating profit 19% 22 36 -39%Net financial items -0.3 2 -116%Profit before taxes 19% 21 37 -43%Taxes 5 13 -65%

    Net Income 15% 17 24 -31%EPS, Undiluted 0.17 0.24 -29%

    EPS, Fully Diluted 0.17 0.24 -29%

    Sheet1

    USD million, except EPSQ2 2016Q2 2015Change in %

    Net revenues114140-18%

    Cost of goods sold – proprietary and other0.80.11435%

    Amortization of multi-client library62%6974-6%

    Gross margin4466-33%

    Personnel costs1117-37%

    Other operating expenses99-3%

    Cost of stock options0.30.9-61%

    Depreciation33-7%

    Operating profit19%2236-39%

    Net financial items-0.32-116%

    Profit before taxes19%2137-43%

    Taxes513-65%

    Net Income15%1724-31%

    EPS, Undiluted0.170.24-29%

    EPS, Fully Diluted0.170.24-29%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 27

    Q2 2016 Cash Flow StatementUSD million Q2 2016 Q2 2015 Change in %Received payments from customers 28 141 -80%

    Payments for operational expenses (19) (25) 25%

    Paid taxes - (29) 100%

    Operational cash flow 9 86 -89%Investments in tangible and intangible assets (1) (3) 57%

    Investments in multi-client library (44) (162) 73%

    Interest received 0.3 2 -82%

    Interest paid (0.3) (0.003) -10467%

    Dividend payments (14) (99) 86%

    Proceeds from share issuances 2 0.03 5271%

    Change in cash balance -48 -175 73%

    Sheet1

    USD millionQ2 2016Q2 2015Change in %

    Received payments from customers28141-80%

    Payments for operational expenses(19)(25)25%

    Paid taxes-(29)100%

    Operational cash flow986-89%

    Investments in tangible and intangible assets(1)(3)57%

    Investments in multi-client library(44)(162)73%

    Interest received0.32-82%

    Interest paid(0.3)(0.003)-10467%

    Dividend payments(14)(99)86%

    Proceeds from share issuances20.035271%

    Change in cash balance-48-17573%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • ©2016 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved. 28

    Balance SheetUSD million Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Change in % Q4 2015AssetsCash and cash equivalents 162 210 -23% 163Other current assets 255 189 35% 308Total current assets 417 399 5% 471Intangible assets and deferred tax asset 92 92 0% 90Other non-current assets 16 16 3% 25Multi-client library 823 830 -1% 839Fixed assets 26 28 -7% 30Total Assets 1,375 1,364 1% 1,455LiabilitiesCurrent liabilities 171 168 2% 218Non-current liabilities 4 5 -9% 6Deferred tax liability 33 29 14% 33Total Liabilities 208 201 3% 257Equity 1,167 1,163 0% 1,198Total Liabilities and Equity 1,375 1,364 1% 1,455

    Sheet1

    USD millionQ2 2016Q1 2016Change in %Q4 2014Q4 2015

    Assets

    Cash and cash equivalents162210-23%256163

    Other current assets25518935%521308

    Total current assets4173995%778471

    Intangible assets and deferred tax asset92920%8590

    Other non-current assets16163%4425

    Multi-client library823830-1%818839

    Fixed assets2628-7%4330

    Total Assets1,3751,3641%1,7681,455

    Liabilities

    Current liabilities1711682%393218

    Non-current liabilities45-9%76

    Deferred tax liability332914%2933

    Total Liabilities2082013%428257

    Equity1,1671,1630%1,3391,198

    Total Liabilities and Equity1,3751,3641%1,7681,455

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

    Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceForward-Looking StatementsAgendaThis is TGSAgendaChallenging Market for ExplorationLong-Term Outlook PositiveKey Trends in the Seismic IndustryAgendaAreas with Faster Payback will Likely Recover FirstFast & Flexible Business ModelSolid Balance Sheet Backing TGS strategyStrategic library acquisitionsSolid Value Creation Over TimeQ3 Investment Focus2016 Key ObjectivesAgendaQ2 2016 Financial HighlightsSummarySlide Number 20AgendaNet RevenuesNet Revenue BreakdownOperating Expenses, EBIT, Free Cash FlowMulti-Client Library Q2 2016 Income StatementQ2 2016 Cash Flow StatementBalance Sheet