Pandia Si Group

11

GLOBAL PHENOLGLOBAL PHENOL--ACETONE MARKETSACETONE MARKETS

BYBYRAJEEV M. PANDIARAJEEV M. PANDIA

SI GROUPSI GROUP

WORLD REFINING ASSOCIATIONWORLD REFINING ASSOCIATION

GLOBAL PETROCHEMICALS CONFERENCE GLOBAL PETROCHEMICALS CONFERENCE 33RDRD TO 5TO 5THTH FEBRUARY, 2009FEBRUARY, 2009

COLOGNE, GERMANYCOLOGNE, GERMANY

22

CONTENTSCONTENTS

BENZENE, PROPYLENE REQUIRED FOR PHENOL, ACETONEGLOBAL DEMAND FOR PHENOL AND ACETONESEGMENTWISE AND REGIONWISE DEMAND FOR PHENOL AND ACETONE AND GROWTHBISPHENOL-A SCENARIONEW DEVELOPMENTS/ CAPACITIES/ PROJECTSPRICINGCONCLUSIONS

33

BENZENEBENZENE MARKET SEGMENTSMARKET SEGMENTS-- GLOBALLYGLOBALLY

END USE SECTORS FOR BENZENE

STYRENE52%

CUMENE19%

NITROBENZENE/ ANILINE

7%

OTHERS9%

CYCLOHEXANE DERIVATIVES

13%

44

PROPYLENE PROPYLENE MARKET SEGMENTSMARKET SEGMENTS

PROPYLENE- END USE SECTORS

PP60%ACN

9%

OXO-ALC9%

PO7%

CUMENE6%

ACR. ACID4%

OTHERS (IPA, OLIGOMERS,

REST)5%

55

PHENOL AND ACETONEPHENOL AND ACETONEFROMFROM

BENZENE AND PROPYLENEBENZENE AND PROPYLENE

PROPYLENE

0.47 TONS

BENZENE

0.872 TONS

CUMENE-1.31 TONSCUMENE

HYDROPEROXIDE

PHENOL

1 TON

ACETONE

0.612 TONS

66

PHENOL DEMANDPHENOL DEMANDSEGMENTWISESEGMENTWISE

WORLD- TOTAL 8.514 MN TPA

WORLD PHENOL DEMAND APPLICATION WISE

PHENOLIC RESINS

30%

BISPHENOL-A40%

OTHERS18%

ALKYL PHENOLS4%

CAPROLACTAM8%

PHENOLIC RESINS BISPHENOL-A CAPROLACTAM ALKYL PHENOLS OTHERS

77

GLOBAL ACETONE DEMANDGLOBAL ACETONE DEMANDSEGMENTWISESEGMENTWISE


WORLD ACETONE DEMAND - APPLICATION WISEMETHYL

METHACRYLATE21%

BISPHENOL-A25%

MIBK8%

SOLVENT AND OTHERS

46%

METHYL METHACRYLATE BISPHENOL-A MIBK SOLVENT AND OTHERS

88

CUMENE CAPACITIESCUMENE CAPACITIESACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS

ASIA PACIFIC- 4.899 MN TPA

USA- 4.616 MN TPA

W. EUROPE- 3.735 MN TPA


AMERICAS-OTHERS- 0.230 MN TPA

CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPE- 0.446 MN TPA

99

PHENOL CAPACITIESPHENOL CAPACITIESACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS


USA- 2.823 MN TPA



AFRICA- 0.040 MN TPA



1010

PHENOL DEMANDPHENOL DEMANDACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS


USA- 2.352 MN TPA



AFRICA- 0.082 MN TPA



1111

PHENOL SURPLUSPHENOL SURPLUSACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS

ASIA- 0.112 MN TPAUSA+CANADA- 0.471 MN TPA


REST OF THE WORLD- (0.148) MN TPA


1212

ACETONE CAPACITIESACETONE CAPACITIESACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS


USA- 1.896 MN TPA

EUROPE- 1.779 MN TPA


ROW- 0.399 MN TPA

1313

ACETONE DEMANDACETONE DEMANDACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS


USA- 1.584 MN TPA



ROW- 0.378 MN TPA

1414

ACETONE SURPLUSACETONE SURPLUSACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS


USA- 0.312 MN TPA



ROW- 0.021 MN TPA

1515

CUMENE SHORTAGE/ SURPLUSCUMENE SHORTAGE/ SURPLUSACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS


USA- 1.288 MN TPA



REST OF THE WORLD- TOTAL 0.085 MN TPA

BASED ON 90% OPERATING RATE FOR PHENOL

1616

US PHENOL DEMAND: 2.352 MN TPA

MAJOR SUPPLIERS

INEOS, GEORGIA GULF, DOW, SHELL, SUNOCO

SEGMENTWISE BREAK UP OF US DEMAND FOR PHENOL

BPA39%

PH RESINS33%

CYCLOHAXANONE17%

APs4%

OTHERS7%

1717

W. EUROPEAN PHENOL DEMAND: 2.231 MN TPA

MAJOR SUPPLIERS

INEOS, ERTISA, POLIMERI

SEGMENTWISE BREAK UP OF W. EUROPEAN DEMAND FOR PHENOL

BPA40%

PH RESINS24%

CYCLOHAXANONE26%

OTHERS10%

1818

ASIAN PHENOL DEMAND: 3.242 MN TPA

MAJOR SUPPLIERS

MITSUI, MITSUBISHI, FCFC, SINOPEC-GAO QIAO, LG, KUMHO

SEGMENTWISE BREAK UP OF ASIAN DEMAND FOR PHENOL

BPA48%

PH RESINS35%

ANILINE3%

CYCLOHAXANONE2%

OTHERS12%

1919

BISPHENOL-A- MAJOR SEGMENTS- GLOBALLY

POLYCARBONATES70%

EPOXY RESINS26%

FLAME RETARDANTS, UPRs, OTHERS

4%

2020

BISPHENOLBISPHENOL--A SCENARIOA SCENARIO

HIGH GROWTH SEEN IN POLYCARBONATES LED BY CDs AND DVDs

MP3 PLAYERS, HIGH INTERNET BANDWIDTH AND USB DRIVES COULD HAMPER FUTURE GROWTH

EPOXY RESIN DEMAND WILL BE BUOYANT IN ASIA IN THE LONGER TERM

6% GLOBAL BPA GROWTH SEEN PRIOR TO THE MELTDOWN AND 13% IN ASIA

SIGNIFICANT CAPACITY ADDITIONS IN ASIA

2121

RECENT PHENOL CAPACITIES/ EXPANSIONSRECENT PHENOL CAPACITIES/ EXPANSIONSAND ACTIVE NEW PHENOL PROJECTSAND ACTIVE NEW PHENOL PROJECTS

FCFC EXPANSION, TAIWAN 200,000 TPALG EXPANSION, KOREA 150,000 TPAKUMHO EXPANSION, KOREA 150,000 TPAPTT PHENOL, THAILAND 200,000 TPAFCFC, MAILIAO 220,000 TPAESFAHAN, IRAN 135,000 TPAPARS PHENOL, IRAN 270,000 TPA

2222

OTHER NEW PHENOL PROJECTSOTHER NEW PHENOL PROJECTS

KAYAN, SAUDI ARABIA 300,000 TPASINOPEC TIANJIN, CHINA 320,000 TPAERTISA, CHINA 200,000 TPAINEOS, CHINA 650,000 TPAGAOQIAO EXPANSION, CHINA +80,000 TPASHELL, SINGAPORE 330,000 TPAFCFC, NINGBO, CHINA 200,000 TPAINDIA PROJECT 200,000 TPA

2323

PHENOLPHENOL-- GROWTH RATESGROWTH RATESACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS

PHENOL- % GROWTH ACROSS REGIONSPRIOR TO MELT DOWN

2

3

6

3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

USA EUROPE ASIA OVERALL

REGION

P

E

R

C

E

N

T

A

G

E

G

R

O

W

T

H

2424

PHENOLPHENOL-- GLOBALGLOBALGROWTH ACROSS SECTORSGROWTH ACROSS SECTORS

PHENOL-% GROWTH ACROSS SEGMENTSPRIOR TO MELT DOWN

6

3

2

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

BISPHENOL-A PH-RESINS OTHERS OVERALL

SEGMENT

P

E

R

C

E

N

T

G

R

O

W

T

H

2525

ACETONEACETONE-- GROWTH RATES GROWTH RATES ACROSS REGIONSACROSS REGIONS

ACETONE - % GROWTH ACROSS REGIONSPRIOR TO MELT DOWN

2 2

6

3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

USA EUROPE ASIA OVERALL

REGION

P

E

R

C

E

N

T

A

G

E

G

R

O

W

T

H

2626

ACETONEACETONE-- GLOBAL GLOBAL GROWTH ACROSS SECTORSGROWTH ACROSS SECTORS

ACETONE-% GROWTH ACROSS SEGMENTSPRIOR TO MELT DOWN

4

1

3 3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

BISPHENOL-A MMA OTHERS OVERALLSEGMENT

P

E

R

C

E

T

A

G

E

G

R

O

W

T

H

2727

BENZENE, CUMENE AND PROPYLENE PRICES- USA/ USGC

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800J

a

n

-

0

4

M

a

r

-

0

4

M

a

y

-

0

4

J

u

l

-

0

4

S

e

p

-

0

4

N

o

v

-

0

4

J

a

n

-

0

5

M

a

r

-

0

5

M

a

y

-

0

5

J

u

l

-

0

5

S

e

p

-

0

5

N

o

v

-

0

5

J

a

n

-

0

6

M

a

r

-

0

6

M

a

y

-

0

6

J

u

l

-

0

6

S

e

p

-

0

6

N

o

v

-

0

6

J

a

n

-

0

7

M

a

r

-

0

7

M

a

y

-

0

7

J

u

l

-

0

7

S

e

p

-

0

7

N

o

v

-

0

7

J

a

n

-

0

8

M

a

r

-

0

8

M

a

y

-

0

8

J

u

l

-

0

8

S

e

p

-

0

8

N

o

v

-

0

8

J

a

n

-

0

9

MONTH AND YEAR

P

R

I

C

E

-

U

S

D

/

M

T

BENZENE CUMENE PROPYLENE

2828

PHENOL VS. BENZENE AND CUMENE

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Jan-0

4Ap

r-04

Jul-0

4Oc

t-04

Jan-0

5Ap

r-05

Jul-0

5Oc

t-05

Jan-0

6Ap

r-06

Jul-0

6Oc

t-06

Jan-0

7Ap

r-07

Jul-0

7Oc

t-07

Jan-0

8Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8Oc

t-08

Jan-0

9

MONTH AND YEAR

P

R

I

C

E

-

U

S

D

/

M

T

PHENOL BENZENE CUMENE

2929

ACETONE VS. CUMENE, PROPYLENE

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Jan-0

4Ap

r-04

Jul-0

4Oc

t-04

Jan-0

5Ap

r-05

Jul-0

5Oc

t-05

Jan-0

6Ap

r-06

Jul-0

6Oc

t-06

Jan-0

7Ap

r-07

Jul-0

7Oc

t-07

Jan-0

8Ap

r-08

Jul-0

8Oc

t-08

Jan-0

9

MONTH AND YEAR

P

R

I

C

E

-

U

S

D

/

M

T

ACETONE CUMENE PROPYLENE

3030

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSASIA TO LEAD GROWTH OF PHENOL/ ACETONEASIA TO LEAD GROWTH OF PHENOL/ ACETONE

BISPHENOLBISPHENOL--A TO LEAD GROWTH ACROSS THE GLOBEA TO LEAD GROWTH ACROSS THE GLOBEEPOXY AND POLYCARBONATE SEGMENTS TO PROVIDE EPOXY AND POLYCARBONATE SEGMENTS TO PROVIDE

STIMULUSSTIMULUSSTAND ALONE CUMENE VS PHENOL CAPACITIES IN STAND ALONE CUMENE VS PHENOL CAPACITIES IN

WEST, WHILE MOST ASIAN PHENOL CAPACITIES WEST, WHILE MOST ASIAN PHENOL CAPACITIES INTEGRATED WITH CUMENEINTEGRATED WITH CUMENE

GLOBAL FINANCIAL MELTDOWN TO AFFECT DEMAND GLOBAL FINANCIAL MELTDOWN TO AFFECT DEMAND IN 2009 ACROSS THE GLOBE INCLUDING ASIAIN 2009 ACROSS THE GLOBE INCLUDING ASIA

TRADE PATTERNS TO CHANGE AS NEW CAPACITIES TRADE PATTERNS TO CHANGE AS NEW CAPACITIES COME UP IN CHINACOME UP IN CHINA

CUMENE PRICES MOVE WITH BENZENE BUT NOT CUMENE PRICES MOVE WITH BENZENE BUT NOT ALWAYS WITH PROPYLENE; PHENOL PRICES MOVE ALWAYS WITH PROPYLENE; PHENOL PRICES MOVE

WITH CUMENE, WHILE ACETONE, AT TIMES, SHOWS A WITH CUMENE, WHILE ACETONE, AT TIMES, SHOWS A DIFFERENT TRENDDIFFERENT TREND

COMFORT IN BENZENE AVAILABILITY AND NEW COMFORT IN BENZENE AVAILABILITY AND NEW SOURCES OF PROPYLENE TO FACILITATE LONG TERM SOURCES OF PROPYLENE TO FACILITATE LONG TERM

ASIAN GROWTHASIAN GROWTH

Pandia Si Group

Documents

Transcript of Pandia Si Group