PA Resources EGM 7 December 2012
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Transcript of PA Resources EGM 7 December 2012
EGM 2012
Bo Askvik, President & CEO
Stockholm
7 December 2012
Presentation outline
2
Financial highlights
» Equity increase of SEK 1,700
million
» Net debt reduced to SEK 1,900
million 1)
» Equity post recapitalisation
transaction approx. SEK 2,500
million
Recapitalisation proposal 1 2
» Financial strength combined
with farm-out transactions
» Development of 30 Mmboe at
USD 9/boe in operated assets
» Asset revaluation – upside
potential
Way forward - business plan 3
» Operational recent
developments
» Q3 operational result in line
with market expectations
» Congo asset impairment of
SEK 1,495 million
1) After cost and assuming 100% acceptance
3
Recent development
HIGHLIGHTS
• Alen field development progressing according to plan,
targeting first production in 2H 2013
• Block I targets for exploration and appraisal drilling in
2013 in progress
• Zarat permit extended until July 2015, with Elyssa
appraisal well scheduled in 2013, farm-out activities
on-going
• Appraisal requirements and development options are
evaluated on Danish 12/06 – parallel with efforts to
locate available rig continues. Initiated discussions with
Maersk for infrastructure tie back
• Awarded provisional UKCS licence - Block 22/19a -
containing undeveloped Fiddich gas/condensate field
(1984) and adjacent to PAR-operated Block 22/18c
• German licence farm-out to Danoil (10%) – partner in
adjacent 12/06 licence.
• Tentative Unitization agreement of the Zarat field
4
Production and sales Ytd 2012
bopd Ytd 2012 Q3 2012 Nov. 2012
West Africa 5,700 5,600 4,800
North Africa 2,300 2,100 2,400
Group Total 8,000 7,700 7,200
• ASENG: New production level of 60,000-63,000
bopd to maximise reservoir recovery
• AZURITE: Sidetrack operations begun in Q4 and
expected to last several months. Plug & abandon
completed, drilling to commence.
• TUNISIA: Onshore fields are back in production
after the temporary shut down in Aug/Sep
• PRICE: PA Resources realised price equal to
Brent average for the third quarter
Average production per country (bopd)
Average sales price (USD/bbl)
71 78
72
82
97
109 106 104
120
109 109
77 79 78 85
106
117 113 109
119
108 109
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
PA Resources Brent
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
Congo: Azurite EG: Aseng Tunisia: Didon & Onshore
Q3 financial highlights
Q1
6
Q3 impairments and tax adjustments
• One-off and non-cash impairment charges and
write downs in Q3 of in total SEK 1,495 million
• The Marine XIV license in the Republic of Congo
was relinquished in early October, resulting in a
write down of approximately SEK 174 million
• The annual impairment test performed and
assets in the Republic of Congo impaired,
mainly as a result of a revision of Azurite field’s
recoverable reserves
• Azurite/Mer Profonde Sud impairment of SEK
1,321 million. Azurite future book value only new
sidetrack/well
• Previously unreported deferred tax liabilities
pertaining to periods before 2011 have been
adjusted by SEK 445 million and reported directly
against share-holders' equity for the opening
balance of 2011
• New opening balance of equity 2012
SEK 2,816 million
• Previously unreported deferred tax assets in the
parent company reduced income taxes in Q3 by
SEK 125 million
Impairments Tax adjustments
Earnings and key ratios
7
Q3
2012
Q2
2012
Jan-Sep
2012
Jan -Sep
2011
Production (bopd) 7,700 8,000 8,100 8,700
Oil price (USD/barrel) 109 109 113 103
Revenue (SEK million) 525 542 1,717 1,619
EBITDA (SEK million) 292 302 990 989
EBITDA margin 55.7% 55.7% 57.6% 61.1%
Profit before tax
(SEK million) *
64 -23 107 147
Profit for the period
(SEK million)*
-15 -118 -166 -229
Earnings per share (SEK) -2.17 -0.33 -2.55 -0.36
* Figures 2012 exclude non-cash, one-off write downs and impairment charges of SEK 1.495million
(SEK 1.370 million after tax) in Q3, SEK 92 million in Q2 and SEK 1.585 million (SEK 1.460 million
after tax) in the nine-month period.
KEY COMMENTS Q3 vs Q2
• Lower production lowered
revenue
• Stable OPEX, to a large extent
fixed costs
• EBITDA margin of 55.7%
• Depreciation somewhat lower
due to lower production
• Financial net strengthened due to
fx effects and both lower interest
and amortized cost
• Tax/EBITDA 27% in Q3
Cash flow
8
SEK million
Q3
2012
Q2
2012
Jan-Sep
2012
Jan-Sep
2011
Operating cash flow 64 425 664 917
of which income
taxes paid
0 -2 -5 -38
CAPEX -16 -21 -69 -1,478
Financing activities -51 -570 -634 -445
Net cash flow -2 -167 -39 -1,005
KEY COMMENTS
• Operating cash flow of SEK 664
million Jan-Sep
• Continued low capex spending,
mainly on Aseng and Alen
development in EG
Capex forecast 2012/2013
Actual Forecasted
Capex 2011 - 2013
Tunisia: Zarat Elyssa 2013 Appraisal/1
Tunisia: Makthar 2014 Exploration/1
Congo: MPS Azurite Q4 2012 Sidetrack/1
EG: Block I Block I 2013 Appraisal/
exploration/1
EG: Block H Aleta Q4 2012/2013 Exploration/1
DK: 12/06 Lille John 2013/2014 Appraisal/1
Drilling program/planned wells 2012-2014
KEY COMMENTS
• 2012 forecast of SEK 240-375 million unchanged
• Capex of SEK 16 million in Q3 and SEK 69 million
for nine-month period 2012
• Azurite sidetrack drilling imminent
• 2013 forecast SEK 250-380 million
9
1,613
69
240 - 375 250-380
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2011 2012 2013
MS
EK
Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Covenant
Book Equity (SEK million) 956 3,064 2,994 >2,000
Book Equity to
Capital Employed 22% 47% 43% >40%
Net debt (SEK million) 3,410 3,503 3,803 N/A
Current debt situation
10
KEY COMMENTS
• Recapitalisation to restore Equity and Book
equity/Capital employed above requirement
in covenants
• Waiver obtained for both NOK & SEK bonds
covenants
• Waiver conditional on EGM approval of
proposed recapitalisation
• Bond loans will be due for immediate
repayment if waiver is withdrawn
• New equity post recapitalisation of approx.
SEK 2,500 million
Covenants and net debt
Recapitalisation
Transaction in brief Q1
Development 2010–2012: Azurite set-back
12
Production
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
2010 2011 2012 YTD
Ave
rag
e b
op
d
2010 Strategic Plan Actual Production
CAPEX
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2010-2012 2010-2012E
MS
EK
2010 Strategic Plan Actual CAPEX
Operating cash flow*
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2010-2012 2010-2012E
MS
EK
2010 Strategic Plan Actual Operating Cash Flow
• Production 2012 YTD turned out almost 10,000 boepd
below the plan set fourth in 2010 – mainly due to Azurite
– Negative operating cash flow effect of more than
SEK 2.9 billion 2010-2012 YTD*
• Other assets – especially Aseng – have performed in
line or above plan
• Planned capex delayed due to cash flow constraints
• Operating cash flow** from producing assets remains
strong – SEK 664 million 2012 YTD
*) Net entitlement. Based on an oil price of USD 80/bbl
**) Operating cash flow pre capex, post tax
Indebtedness too high given current asset base
13
Background
Poor Azurite performance
Perceived inability to
develop assets
Weak balance sheet
Accelerated amortizations
Low perceived
value of assets
Difficulty to
make asset
transactions
• Underlying cash flow from production stable but
net indebtedness following Azurite set-back too
high and liquidity has become a constraint
• Recapitalisation to strengthen balance sheet
critical to avoid financial distress
Unfavourable
conditions for
credit facilities
Price pressure
on all traded
instruments
Net debt development
Net debt of which convertible bonds Net debt*/equity
*) Includes convertible bonds, before impairment
3,7
2,5 2,8
3,1 3,2 3,5
3,7 4,0
3,8 3,5 3,4
85%
41% 52% 60% 68%
77% 72%
122% 127%
114% 140%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2011 2012
Net d
eb
t/eq
uity
(%) N
et
de
bt
(SE
Km
)
Ownership
Ownership
8%
92%
4%
48%
24%
24%
» Offer to convertible bondholders
to set-off their convertible bonds
against newly issued shares at
SEK 0.15
» Fully underwritten rights issue
of approx. SEK 700 million at
SEK 0.10 (~50% directed to old
equityholders and ~50% to
convertible bondholders)
Solution: Recapitalisation for future growth
» The company believes that after the
transactions its balance sheet will be
sufficiently strong to:
• Increase ability to complete asset
divestments
• In combination with new debt
financing, enable ability to develop
prioritised assets to secure future
growth
• In combination with new debt
financing, enable planned
amortisation of bond loans and
credit facilities during 2013
Board of Directors propose a two-step transaction strengthening equity with SEK 1.7 billion
Set-off issue 1
Rights issue 2
» Post transaction – continue to benefit from operating cash flow and development potential inherent in assets
primarily in North Africa and the North Sea
Outcome
14
Current
shareholders Convertible
bondholders
Convertible
bondholders’
share of new issue
Shareholders’ share
of new issue
Current
shareholders
Convertible
bondholders
The set-off issue and fully underwritten rights issue are subject to the underwriting agreement entered into between the company and Carnegie not being
terminated. Carnegie has the right to terminate the agreement, inter alia, if the set-off issue is not subscribed for to such extent that more than 90% of the claim
under the convertible bonds (including accrued interest as at 6 November 2012) is used as payment for the new class B share by way of set-off.
Terms of set-off and rights issue
15
Set-off issue
Rights issue to
current
shareholders
• Set-off of one (1) convertible bond of nominal value including accrued
interest of in total SEK 17.40 for 116 new B shares at SEK 0.15 per share
• Maximum of 7.1 billion new B shares (increase in equity of SEK 1.1
billion)
• Rights issue directed to the current shareholders (holders of A
shares) of approximately SEK 350 million at SEK 0.10 per share
Rights issue to
holders of new B
share
• Rights issue directed to holders of new B shares from set-off issue of
approximately SEK 350 million at 0.10 per share
Set-off issue 1
Rights issue approx. SEK 700 million (assuming 100% acceptance in set-off issue) 2
PA Resources way forward – business plan
16
Operating cash flow
and rights issue proceeds
enables maintenance
investments
» Cash flow from producing assets to finance maintenance investments in the Aseng
and Didon fields
» Strengthened balance sheet, in combination with new debt financing, enables
planned amortizations of bond loans and credit facilities during 2013
Farm-outs to reduce
risk exposure and
future investments
» Work ongoing to reduce interest in certain prioritized assets
• Zarat license in Tunisia (Elyssa, Zarat and Didon)
• 12/06 in Denmark (Broder Tuck and Lille John)
Development of
prioritized assets for
long-term
production growth
» Cash flow from producing fields combined with new debt financing enables
development of prioritized assets – target to develop ~32 mmboe to production
• Zarat and Elyssa in Tunisia
• Broder Tuck and Lille John in Denmark
» Net debt to remain in line with the level following the transactions
Selective exploration
to increase the
resource base
» Selective exploration and appraisal of Block I in EG and Makthar in Tunisia
» Only a few planned commitments
Improved position for
farm-outs and asset
related transactions
» Strengthened balance sheet secures the value of the asset portfolio and improves
the position in future farm-outs and asset related transactions
» Tunisian gas deficit growing – more gas projects required
with Elyssa & Zarat as clear candidates
» Submit Unit Plan of Development by Q1 2013
» Agree unitisation principles with Joint Oil Block
» Actively participate in Government infrastructure initiative
Zarat Field – Largest undeveloped discovery in Tunisia
1992 Discovery
2010-2011 ZRT-N1 Appraisal
1995 Appraisal Well
2011-2012 POD Update, Unitisation
2017/2018 First production
2013-2017 Development
2013 UPOD, UUOA
Gross
Recoverable
Volumes
• c. 80 mmbbl liquids
• c. 600 Bscf gas incl. inerts
• Largest undeveloped discovery in Tunisia
Ownership &
Operatorship
• c. 60% of field lies in Zarat Permit
• c. 40% in Joint Oil Block Unitisation
• Zarat Permit: PA Resources 100%
• Joint Oil Block: Sonde 100%
Subsurface
Aspects
Outlook - Forward Plan
• El Gueria fm reservoir
• 30m oil rim with > 70m rich gas cap
• 40° API oil, 53° API condensate
• Significant inert component in gas
Facilities and
Development
Aspects
Development Concept
• 40,000 bopd initial oil/cond rate first year
• 200 mmscf/d initial raw gas rate
• 9 producer wells, 4 gas injectors
• Objective to maximise liquid recovery
• Plan assumes a 7yr gas recycling phase
• Followed by gas cap blowdown
• 25yr + production life
2005 PA Acquisition
1990 Permit Award
17
18
Zarat Field – Tentative Unitization agreement
RECENT DEVELOPMENT
• Tentative agreement reached on Unitization of Zarat
field reached with Sonde Resources (licence holder
to North Zarat licence)
• Agreement includes principles relating to Unit Area,
Unit Plan of Development Area and Tract Participation
• Unit Plan of Development on track for submission to
Tunisian Authorities by end Q2 2013
• Detailed reservoir technical evaluation undertaken
jointly by PA Resources and Sonde is on-going
• Preliminary results indicate gas recycling option as
a viable production option – allows production of
oil and condensate in advance of gas blow down
• Further announcement once all approvals have
been obtained
Joint Oil Block
ZRTN-1
ZRT-2
El Nisr
Didon North Field
Didon Field Zarat West
ZRT-1
TUNISIA LIBYA
Zarat Field (PART)
Didon Concession
Zarat Field
Zarat Permit Elyssa Field
Fields
Lead / Prospects
Didon South
Massinissa
Updip
Aliyan
Licence Group: Operator PA Resouces 100%
ETAP has a back-in right of up to 55%
Zarat field
» Tunisian gas deficit growing – more gas projects
required with Elyssa & Zarat as clear candidates
» Seismic re-interpretation & modeling by end 2012
» Drill appraisal well in 2013
Gross
Recoverable
Volumes
• c. 50 mmboe
• Mainly gas resources
• Small quantity of oil/condensate
Ownership &
Operatorship • PA Resources 100%
Subsurface
Aspects
Outlook - Forward Plan
• Asymmetric anticline structure
• Gas & oil accumulation in Vascus Cherahil
and Bireno reservoirs
• 36-37° API oil
• Low inert, c. 16% assumed
Facilities and
Development
Aspects
Development Concept
• 50 m water depth
• 6 production wells
• Development via tie-back
• c. 3,000 bopd initial oil/cond rate
• c. 120 mmscf/d initial raw gas rate
1974 Discovery
2006/2007 Appraisal Well + ST
1992 Appraisal Well
2010 New 3D Seismic
2016 First Production
2014 POD
2014-2016 Development
2013 ELY-4 Appraisal Well
2005 PA Acquisition
19
Elyssa – Appraisal well in 2013
Denmark 12/06 – 2011 discoveries and way forward PA Resources Operator with 64%
• High quality Middle Jurassic reservoir proved by wells
• Mid to high case assessment of c. 25-50 mmboe gross
of contingent resources including liquids
• Commercialisation studies continues through 2012
• Initiated discussions with Maersk for infrastructure tie back
• Assumed production start in 2017
• Wells established 35 API oil in Miocene sandstone
at c. 900m – exceptionally light oil for shallow depth
• Work focused on Miocene prospect inventory
• Remaining deeper potential likely – Chalk remains and
well result upgrades Middle Jurassic prospect
• 2012 work programme to reprocess 3D to determine
prospect inventory and appraisal well location
• Drilling project management tendered and efforts to locate
available rig continues
• Initiated discussions with Maersk for infrastructure tie back
• Assumed production start in 2016
20
Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (64%), Danish
North Sea Fund (20%), Spyker Energy (8%), Danoil (8%)
B20008-73
12/06 Broder Tuck-2
Lille John-1
Broder Tuck
Lille John
Reserves and Resources for development
21
MMboe 2P
Reserves
Contingent
Resources
Risked Prospective
Resources
Assets
included
Didon, Azurite, Aseng
liquids, Alen, Zarat field
liquids, DST
Block I, MPS, 12/06,
Marine XIV, Zarat permit,
Netherlands
Block I, Block H, MPS,
Marine XIV, Zarat permit,
Jelma, Makthar, Jenein
Center, Gita, 12/06, Block
8, Netherlands, UK
2011.12.31 60.2 145 409
Present PAR working interest
Tunisia: Zarat 43.9 29.3
Tunisia: Elyssa 42.2
Denmark: Lille John 9.1 9.1
Denmark: Broder Tuck 21.4
Total 43.9 102.2 9.1
Developed Net after farm-out 8.8 21.5 2.2
Prioritised investments/projects 2013-2018
22
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Total
Farm-out
target
Development Projects
Producing Fields 240 160 140 30 0 0 570
Denmark: 12/06 Field 130 220 310 180 0 0 840 64% to 15%
Tunisia: Zarat Field 210 500 1 060 680 230 0 2 680 100% to 20%
Exploration 110 70 0 0 0 0 180
CAPEX Forecast (MSEK) 690 950 1 510 890 230 0 4 270
PAR Carry Estimate 520 680 970 300 0 0 2 470
Net CAPEX (MSEK) 170 270 540 590 230 0 1 800
• CAPEX forecast
assumes farm-out of
prioritised assets
• Maintenance CAPEX of
producing fields included
*) Assuming farm-outs
Note: Assumes an oil price of 110 USD/bbl, USD/SEK of 6.53 and a discount factor of 10%
Total assets
Production and reserves under development
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Reserves*
Reserves in producing fields
(MMBOE) 12.8 10.9 8.9 7.6 6.2 5.0
Reserves in assets to be
developed (MMBOE) 32.5 32.5 32.5 30.3 27.5 23.2
Total 45.3 43.4 41.4 37.9 33.7 28.2
Production (boepd)*
Working interest 6,300 5,300 5,400 9,500 11,500 15,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Producing Fields Fields to be developed
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
12 500
15 000
17 500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Producing Fields Fields to be developed
Expected outcome of Business Plan
23
Estimated development of reserves (MMBOE)
Production development (boepd)
HIGHLIGHTS:
• Continued production from currently producing
assets
• Investments in 2013-2015 adds new production
and long-term cash flow – 30 mmboe developed
to production
• Farm-outs critical to reduce risk and capex
• Further investments in 2016-2017
to maintain and add new production
• Planned production start for Lille John and
Elyssa in 2016 followed by Broder Tuck and
Block I in 2017 and Zarat field in 2018
30 MMBOE
2,5 2,4 2,4 2,8
3,6
5,0
1,7 1,8 2,1 2,0
1,2
-0,6
68% 76%
86%
72%
33%
-13%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
Net
de
bt
an
d e
qu
ity (
SE
Kb
n)
Net d
eb
t/eq
uity
(%)
Equity Net debt Net debt/equity
180
-100
-270
60
840
1,820
-5 000
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Pro
du
ctio
n (b
oe
pd
)
Cash
flo
w (
SE
Km
)
Net cash flow Production
Production and cash flow* development
Expected outcome of Business Plan
24
Net debt development
*) Cash flow post capex, G&A and interest payments
CAPEX forecast – Total and per barrel
25
CAPEX HIGHLIGHTS:
• Development of prioritised key assets and
continued selective exploration activities
• 30 MMBOE to be developed to producing
reserves
• Total capex forecast of SEK 1.8 billion
• Development capex of approx. USD 9/boe
including carry proceeds
CAPEX incl carry proceeds
CAPEX/Produced barrel
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 8002010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
MS
EK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
US
D/b
bl
Cost per developed boe incl carry proceeds
Prioritised assets – Value through farm-outs
26
KEY COMMENTS:
• Farm-out of prioritised assets to reach
preferred working interest level and
reduce risk on individual assets
• Value per barrel potential increase from
$4/boe in current book value to $19/boe
on prioritised assets after development
and farm-outs
• Upside potential compared to current
book values in West Africa and North
Sea development assets
• Large portion of value in North African
assets
ASSUMPTIONS FOR VALUATION:
• Reserve data from third party reports
• Business plan as previously presented
Oil price of 110 USD/bbl
• USD/SEK of 6.53
• Cash flow discounted at 10%
Asset valuation before and after farm-outs
*) Producing assets
**) Includes prospective resources
Working
Interest
PAR
Valuation
North Africa (mmboe) (MSEK) (%) (MSEK) (%) (MSEK)
Didon* 100,0% 50,0%
DST* 75,0% 75,0%
Zarat 100,0% 20,0%
Elyssa 100,0% 20,0%
Total 120 2 807 8 300 3 000
West Africa
Azurite* 35,0% 35,0%
Block I* 5,7% 5,7%
Total 13 707 2 100 2 100
North Sea
12/06, Broder Tuck
12/06, Lille John40 384 64,0% 3 100 15,0% 1 100
Total 40 384 3 100 1 100
Exploration assets
Other Assets, incl.
Exploration**441** 1 693 - 2 300 - 2 300
Total 441** 1 693 2 300 2 300
Total 5 591 15 800 8 500
Reserves &
Contingent
Resources Book Value
Current
Working
Interest
Current
PAR
Valuation
After Farm-outs
120 2 807 8 300 3 000
13 707 2 100 2 100
2.3
6.2
8.5
Net debt post
transactions
New equity from
convertible bondholders
Asset valuation – Summary
27
Producing assets Assets to
be developed
Exploration assets
Old equity Upside potential New equity from
rights issue
*) Based on reserve data from third party reports, the business plan as presented on the previous pages, an oil price of 110 USD/bbl,
USD/SEK of 6.53 and a discount factor of 10%
**) Assumes 100% acceptance in the exchange offer
***) Based on a share price of SEK 0.14, i.e. the theoretical share price post transactions
Total equity of SEK ~1.9 billion
2,3 2,3 1.9**
1,6
3,9
1.1**
1,7
2,3
0.7**
0.1***
5,6
8,5
0
2
4
6
8
10
Book values PAR valuationassuming farm-
outs*
Net debt New equity fromconvertible
bondholders
New equity fromrights issue
Old equity** Upside to NAV
Asset valuation Upside potential to business plan
SE
K b
illio
n
Summary and outlook
28
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS:
• Cash flow from current production
• Financial capacity to finance development
capex according to plan and repay/refinance
the SEK bond due in 2013
• Development of existing reserves adding after
farm-out 30 MMBOE for long-term production
growth - expected to result in net cash position
in 2018
• Value in asset portfolio secured and
strengthened position for future farm-outs and
transactions
Thank you! Q1