Ovum Telecom Advisory Overview General

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INTRODUCING OVUM TELECOMS

Driving business value through collaborative intelligence


IMAGINE AN ANALYST FIRM THAT…


WHY OVUM?

With the most experienced analyst team in the industry, Ovum Telecoms is uniquely positioned to provide the insightful analysis needed to guide service providers, regulators, and vendors through the massive transformation awaiting the Telecoms industry

World’s leading business advisor to the Telecoms industry

Highly experienced analysts averaging 10-15 years in industry (many 20+ years)

Easy-to-access analysts around the globe

Balanced and unique supplier/ customer perspective

Deep research investment in key markets

Uniquely deep data in select competency areas

Industry-leading service delivery platform

Global perspective with regional expertise and drill down

Flexible commercial options


OUR CLIENTS

Ovum Telecoms is the world’s leading business advisor to the Telecoms industry


TELECOMS RESEARCH TEAM LEADERSHIPBrett Azuma

SVP, Telecoms

20 years providing strategic advice and consulting on data networking, traffic management, VoIP, adoption of triple-play services, bundling, and business services

9 years with Ovum advising global clients on service provider strategies with a focus on operational transformation of multinational service providers

Jan DawsonPractice Leader, Wireline,

Wholesale & Regulation

John LivelyChief Forecaster

21 years of Telecoms experience spanning optical components and fibre, broadband access, and optical transport with an emphasis on market forecasting

Richard MahonyPractice Leader,

Enterprise

13 years advising enterprises and telcos, with a specialty in commercial negotiation, supplier selection and performance analysis for some of the largest private and public sector contracts in EMEA

Jeremy GreenPractice Leader,

Mobile Strategy

20 years in telecoms industry advising global clients on fixed-mobile convergence, enterprise services, international roaming and new revenue sources from voice services

Adam LeachPractice Leader,

Devices

13 years in the wireless industry with a current focus on handset markets, software platforms for next-gen devices, semiconductors, developer ecosystems, Internet convergence, and adjacent consumer electronics

Michael PhilpottPractice Leader,

Consumer

13 years advising operators, equipment vendors, large utility companies and financial institutions on broadband access strategies and technology, and consumer broadband services and technologies

Angel DobardzievPractice Leader

Emerging Markets

11 years tracking and advising leading clients on Telecoms and IT industry issues, with a focus on emerging global markets

Dana CoopersonPractice Leader,

Network Infrastructure

18 years telecoms systems and operations experience plus more than a decade advising clients on network infrastructure market dynamics, with an emphasis on optical networking and transport

Daryl InnissPractice Leader,

Components

21 years in optoelectronics, with a focus on passive and active optical components, and client projects and research around industry food chain analysis, forecasting and analysing market dynamics

Clare McCarthyPractice Leader, Telco Operations

18 years advising clients on telco trends including customer loyalty and retention, transformation, billing systems, MVNO market entry, mobile payment systems, the socioeconomic impact of broadband in the EU 25.

David JamesPractice Leader,

Wholesale

21 years advising operators and service providers on developments in wholesale telecoms with a focus on meeting changing customer needs and developing better, cost-effective approaches to customer care

Matt HowettPractice Leader,

Regulation

Many years tracking and advising clients on regulatory developments and issues including benchmarking interconnection, functional/structural separation, next-gen access, spectrum policy and net neutrality

David KennedyPractice Leader,

Asia Pacific

Decades advising clients on broadband and wireline developments, with a focus on Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia and Greater China

Daniel HongPractice Leader, Contact

Center Markets & Technology

Many years studying and advising clients on current opportunities, relevant issues and future direction of the global voice business market and contact centre outsourcing market


RESEARCH THEMES

Ovum Telecoms will focus on key themes across research streams in 2010

• Next-generation Access Analysis of issues vendors and service providers face around next-generation access, including both wired and wireless technologies. Technologies discussed include fibre, WiMAX and LTE.

• Strategies for Recession and Recovery Examination of strategies and tactics operators and vendors are employing to weather the current economic storm, prepare for recovery, and maintain profitability while serving an increasingly cost-sensitive customer.

• Business Transformation Studies of the hard work operators and vendors are undertaking to transform their business, which in many cases requires modifying an operator’s business model as well as re-engineering its operational model.

• Service Innovation Operator strategies for diversifying portfolios, and the processes and technologies they’re employing to enable a quicker response to the market.

• Industry Disruptors Disruptive trends, including game-changing business models and technologies, that have the potential to redefine the telecoms market.

• New Frontiers in technology Examination of emerging technologies we expect to significantly impact the telecoms industry.

• Emerging Markets Coverage across sectors with an emphasis on the specific needs, characteristics and challenges of local emerging markets and the product, service and marketing strategies tuned to this client base.

• Policy and Regulation Developments A focus on emerging issues, challenges and opportunities in telecoms policy and regulation.

• Network and Service Convergence An examination of convergence issues across the network and service layer, including the convergence of fixed and mobile communications and the convergence of video and voice markets.


2010 RESEARCH STREAMS

We approach key industry issues from multiple angles—collaborating across teams and disciplines—to provide a perspective in context and concert with the entire Telecoms ecosystem

We organize our research in the same way multinational operators segment the marketplace


MOBILE

Mobile data services as a new means of revenue growth is fundamentally changing the mobile industry. The challenge now is profitability on low ARPU, intensifying competition, and the threats posed by new players

• Mobile broadband and the road to 4G

• the business case for LTE and mobile WiMAX

• pricing, profitability and service issues in emerging markets

• market entry and exit strategies of mobile operators

• competitive differentiation & positioning

• voice and data service propositions

• economies of scale

SIGNATURE RESEARCH 2009

• Impact of the recession on mobile operators

• Retail channel strategies in emerging markets

• Mobile broadband value added services

• The road to 4G mobile: LTE, HSPA and mobile WiMAX

• Mobile money in emerging markets

• The future of mobile: a vision for 2020

• The LTE business case (6 reports)

• Dynamic discounting

• Franchised mobile operations

Practice Leader, Mobile

Strategy

Jeremy Green

Senior Analyst,

Mobile Strategy

Steven Hartley

Senior Analyst Mobile

Strategy

Carrie Pawsey

Senior Analyst Mobile

Strategy

Emeka Obiodu

Analyst Mobile

Strategy

Raymond Yu

• Mobile broadband users & revenues

• Enterprise mobility (ARPU, connections, revenues)

• Mobile connections

• Mobile phones

• Mobile regions & countries

• Mobile voice & data

• Mobile technology split

• Smartphones

• Wireless content (games, music, video, personalisation)

• Wireless messaging

RELATED FORECASTSRESEARCH AGENDA 2010


EMERGING MARKETS

RESEARCH AGENDA 2010

• Mobile: strategic and operational excellence

• Opportunities in data services

• Next-generation access strategies for success

• Enterprise services: connectivity and managed services


• Mobile money in emerging markets

• Operator strategies for mobile broadband in emerging markets

• Retail channel strategies in emerging markets

• Realtime mobile pricing solutions and strategies

• Rural mobile strategies: five success factors

• Low-ARPU users: best practice strategies

• WiMAX in emerging markets

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

• Our forecasts cover 20 key emerging countries in the following regions:

• South & Central America

• Emerging Europe

• Middle East

• Africa

• Emerging Asia

Practice Leader,

Emerging Markets

Angel Dobardziev

Analyst, Emerging

Markets

Daniel Subramaniam

Principal Analyst

Emerging Markets

Amit Gupta

Analyst, Emerging

Markets

Deepika Chaubey

Developing markets in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Latin America and Emerging Europe hold abundant opportunity for savvy companies tuned to the unique needs of local markets, and who can deliver the right mix of products, services and messages

RELATED FORECASTS


WHOLESALE

• Wholesale’s evolving position in the telecoms value chain

• Impact of retail market trends on wholesale

• High-performance wholesale

• Wholesale network outsourcing


• Wholesale in emerging markets

• European wholesale market share

• Selling wholesale to, through and with systems integrators

• Wholesale content: act now or miss the boat

• Wholesale service trends in the US

• Customer segmentation in the wholesale market

• Wholesale service structure

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

• Wholesale voice traffic and revenues

• Wholesale managed services

• Wholesale access revenues (broadband and narrow band)

• Wholesale managed data services (mobile message traffic and revenues)

• Wholesale managed data services (IP-VPN, ATM, frame relay, revenues)

RELATED FORECASTS

Senior Analyst,

Wholesale

Paris Burstyn

Wholesale plays a critical role in enabling and supporting retail service providers’ service portfolios in what has, in recent years, become a complex telecoms value web Practice

Leader, Wholesale

David James

Senior Analyst,

Wholesale

Fernanda Mello Veiga



CONSUMER


• Monetisation—strategies for growth

• Service innovation

• Content value systems

• Disruptive forces in consumer market

• Service provider positioning strategies

• Pricing broadband access

• Digital support services

• Latest Internet service and technology trends

• Supplier analysis: Ovum managed

services scorecard


• US wireless carriers’ attitudes toward consumer VoIP services

• Retail channel strategies

• In search of incremental revenues: the telco in ‘support’ role

• Next-generation access development: defining trends

• The role of the smart enabler: positioning for growth in the open mobile market

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

• Broadband content

• Broadband (DSL, cable, FTTx)

• Consumer VoIP

• Fixed voice services

• GPS-enabled handsets

• Mobile broadband devices

• Mobile broadband

• Mobile connections

• Mobile phones

• Mobile regional & country

• Mobile technology split

• Mobile voice & data

• Smartphones

• Third-party mobile content

• Wireless content


RELATED FORECASTS

Senior Analyst,

Consumer

Mark Little

Telcos are increasingly being impacted by indirect competitors like broadcasters and Internet portals. Consumer trends and technical developments that may seem insignificant at first can create waves across the industry

Practice Leader,

Consumer

Michael Philpott

Principal Analyst,

Consumer

Eden Zoller

Senior Analyst,

Consumer

Michele MacKenzie

Analyst, Consumer

Jonathan Doran



ENTERPRISE


• Enterprise insight and behaviour

• Changing competitor environment

• Emerging enterprise manage services opportunities

• Dynamic customer interactions


• Enterprise managed services scorecard

• Managed mobility managed services scorecard

• Unified communication strategies of global telcos

• Unified communication strategies of global systems integrators

• Enterprise mobility: holding back the tide of consumerism

• US SMEs 2009: key trends and characteristics (multi-report series)

• Cloud communication services: the future of enterprise managed services

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

• Enterprise mobility (mobile connections, revenues)

• Enterprise remote access connections and revenues

• Enterprise IP: top-level data

• Enterprise IP: IP-VPN

• Enterprise IP: ATM, frame relay

• Enterprise IP: managed and hosted IP voice services

• Enterprise IP: conferencing

RELATED FORECASTS

David Molony

Current financial conditions make cost reduction, and a lack of funding for new projects the primary drivers of enterprise communication agendas. Smart MNCs must address the more subtle, but critical, needs of enterprises to prepare themselves for the next period of investment

Practice Leader,

Enterprise

Richard Mahony

Pauline Trotter

Principal Analyst,

Enterprise

Pauline Trotter

Principal Analyst,

Enterprise

David Molony

Principal Analyst,

Enterprise

Mike Sapien

Senior Analyst,

Enterprise

Claudio Castelli

Principal Analyst,

Enterprise

Evan Kirchheimer

Principal Analyst,

Enterprise

Peter Hall


REGULATION


• Interconnect rates and benchmarking

• Spectrum policy

• Regulatory approach to next- generation access

• Regulatory country overviews

• Cross-country regulatory analysis


• Next-generation access: regulation and policy implications

• Ovum annual regulatory scorecard

• The status of mobile termination regulation in Europe

• Digital dividend: an overview of national policies

• A comparison of digital strategies for economic recovery

• The geographic differentiation of regulatory remedies

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

• Fixed origination rates for Europe, Americas, Asia- Pacific and Middle East & Africa

• Fixed termination rates for Europe, Americas, Asia- Pacific and Middle East & Africa

• Mobile termination rates for Europe, Americas, Asia- Pacific and Middle East & Africa

• Local loop unbundling rates for Europe, Americas, Asia- Pacific and Middle East & Africa

• Retail/wholesale comparisons for Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa

• Historic interconnect trend analysis for Europe & Americas

• Raw interconnect charge data for Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Middle East & Africa

RELATED BENCHMARKS

David Molony

The challenge of regulation in telecommunications is to strike an appropriate balance between competition and investment. Companies need a global view of regulatory developments to understand how to respond to change

Pauline Trotter

Pauline Trotter

Practice Leader,

Regulation

Matt Howett

Analyst, Regu;ation

Charice Wang

Analyst, Regulation

Marcela Sirio


TELCO OPERATIONS


• Telco transformation

• Migration of customers from legacy to IP-based networks

• Customer centricity

• Efficiency and optimisation

• Measuring performance

• New partnerships and business

models to retain and win customers

• The evolution of telco branding

• Capex and opex reduction strategies

• Sophisticated customer segmentation techniques


• The transformed telco scorecard

• Telco outsourcing

• Telco KPIs—quarterly analysis

• Disruptive trends: competitors

• The future of voice in North America

• Telco churn and retention strategies

• IMS: operator strategies and business cases

• Identifying the fixed telco’s core business

• Top IT projects for the transforming service provider

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

• Fixed voice

• Internet services

• Broadband subscribers

• Broadband equipment (DSL, CMTS, FTTx)

• Enterprise Ethernet services

• Enterprise broadband, VPN, ATM, frame relay services

• Service provider revenues and capex

David Molony

All telcos need to become more efficient, more customer centric, more competitive, and to expand the scope of services they offer customers. Smart telcos are meeting these challenges with a top-to-bottom rethinking of their identity

Pauline Trotter

Pauline Trotter

Mark Giles

Senior Analyst,

Operations

Sally Banks

Practice Leader,

Operations

Clare McCarthy

Analyst, Operations

Practice Leader,

Wireline, Wholesale

& Regulation

Jan Dawson

RELATED FORECASTS


NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE


• The search for new revenue sources

• Implications of shifting spending patterns

• Impact of the shift to packet- based networks

• Optical Networking market share and forecasting

• Networks as enablers of new services

• Product strategies in high—vs low—ARPU markets

• the impact of network sharing and fibre unbundling

• End-to-end applications


• Packet optical convergence

• Next-gen mobile infrastructure (focus on LTE/WiMAX)

• Financial deals industry insight—Telecommunications

• Optical industry health check (Webinar)

• Network traffic, costs and revenues—putting the relationship in context

• LTE/SAE strategies of the main mobile infrastructure vendors

• Software: an untapped revenue source for network element vendors

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

• Broadband subscribers

• Broadband equipment (DSL, CMTS, FTTx)

• Optical networks equipment

• Enterprise Ethernet services

• Enterprise broadband, VPN, ATM, and frame relay services

• Service provider packet transport (switching, routing) equipment

• Wireless backhaul (traffic,

services, revenues)

• Service provider revenue and capex

• Mobile technology split (connections, CDMA, mobile, WiMAX, TD SCDMA)

RELATED FORECASTS

David Molony

The most savvy operators see network infrastructure not just as a cost to minimise, but as a strategic asset that can provide much-needed capability and differentiation within an increasingly complex ecosystem

Pauline Trotter

Pauline Trotter

Emeka Obiodu

Raymond Yu

David Molony

Pauline Trotter

Senior Analyst,

Networks

Kamalini Ganguly

Practice Leader,

Networks

Dana Cooperson

Principal Analyst,

Networks

Ron Kline

Principal Analyst,

Networks

Julien Grivolas

Principal Analyst,

Networks

Matt Walker

Principal Analyst,

Networks

John Mazur

AssociateAnalyst,

Networks

Sherrie Huang


COMPONENTS

• Enterprise transition to 10Gbps and above

• Video delivery supplier landscape

• Emerging wireline access opportunities

• High bandwidth optical components

• Advances in next-generation access

• Market Share: Global optical components


• Is 10Gbps PON ready for primetime?

• Radio-frequency over glass

• Cable migrates towards all IP with Docsis 3.0

• FTTx in Asia-Pac (8-report series)

• Datacom optics: tremendous opportunity but tricky to navigate

• Optical industry health check (Webinar)

• Trends and perspectives of optical communications market

• Optical components- global

• Datacom optical components

• FTTx optical components

• IPTV

• Parallel optics

• WAN optical components

• Broadband video optics

System vendors and carriers are demanding higher bandwidth, lower costs, smaller sizes and lower power consumption to support what appears to be an insatiable consumer and enterprise demand for bandwidth and services

Practice Leader,

Components

Daryl Inniss

Principal Analyst,

Components

Karen Liu

Principal Analyst,

Components

Lynn Hutcheson

RESEARCH AGENDA 2010 RELATED FORECASTS


DEVICES

• How managed device platforms

are wrenching control of mobile services from operators

• Software and content development best practice

• The evolution of the Smartphone


• of iPhones and Androids: reinventing Smartphones and other devices

• Mobile phone forecast 2008-2014

• Mobile Cloud Computing: seeing through the haze

• Mobile application stores (multi- report series)

• The LTE business case: device roadmap

•Multi-screen video: matching demand to devices

• Smartphone capability tracker

• GPS-enabled handsets

• Mobile broadband devices

• Mobile phones

• Smartphones

RELATED FORECASTS

The convergence of consumer electronics with mobile and the Internet is significantly changing the role of both devices and supporting software in network-based services and ‘the cloud’ Practice

Leader, Devices

Adam Leach

Principal Analyst, Devices

Tony Cripps

Analyst, Devices

Tim Renowden



FORECASTING

ADDITIONAL FORECAST AREAS

• Optical networking equipment

• Core/edge IP switches

• IP MPLS switches

• FTTX, DSL, CMTS equipment

• Optical components (WAN, datacom, FTTX)

• Mobile phones including smartphones

• Ethernet services

• IP VPN services

• Fixed internet services

• Enterprise mobility

SIGNATURE FORECASTS

• Smartphone forecast

• Big-screen mobile devices forecast

• Mobile broadband connections and revenues forecast

• Telco TV forecast

• Digital music forecast

• Mobile connections & revenues for 50 countries

• Fixed lines and revenues for 50 countries

• Revenue and capex for top 40 operators globally

• Network infrastructure and components forecasts

Ovum Telecoms publishes forecasts for over 20,000 products/services annually. Our forecasts are essential ingredients in clients’ strategic planning, annual budgeting and business case analysis, and produced via a continuous cycle of data collection, analysis, and validation.

Chief Forecaster

John Lively

Principal Analyst,

Forecasting

Ian Redpath

Senior Analyst,

Forecasting

Tanya Harris

• Managed and hosted services


• Wireless music, games, video

• Fixed voice revenues and lines


• Wholesale revenue and traffic

• Network infrastructure market share

• Professional and managed services market share

• Managed and hosted services


• Wireless music, games, video

• Fixed voice revenues and lines


• Wholesale revenue and traffic

• Network infrastructure market share

• Professional and managed services market share


OVUM TELECOMS CONTENT 2010

Analyst Opinion Short event-, news- and trend-driven premium analysis from our global analyst team

Benchmarks Assessments of operator and vendor strengths relative to peers and competitors on topics including broadband, IPTV, VPN data pricing, mobile termination regulation, power reduction activities, 40G and 100G equipment and services, NGN policies, smart enabler market, plus enterprise supplier scorecards, and more

Case Studies Analyses of service providers’ activities and progress in improving operations, processes and systems to compete in product and service segments such as broadband, Wi-Fi wholesaling, managed telco services, mobile broadband, mobile payments, mobile shopping, location-based-services, IPTV, digital advertising, operator transformation, open-source software for mobile phones, smart enablers, rural advertising, low ARPU markets, WiMAX operators, and more

Company Profiles Studies of marketing, product, service and technology strategies of leading service providers and vendors

Forecasts Five-year global outlook with coverage spanning five regions and approximately 50 individual countries, many of our forecasts are produced quarterly and are accompanied by written analysis of global, regional and country markets. Ovum produces more than 70 annual forecasts. For a complete catalog of our 2009-2010 forecasts, please contact us at [email protected].

Interconnection Benchmark

international comparisons of charges for regulated services and in North America, Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific as well as local loop unbundling rates

Market Reports Ongoing strategic analysis of evolving trends in wholesale, enterprise, consumer, emerging and mature markets, networking, devices, regulation, and components. Includes product segmentation analyses, competitor analyses; market and country profiles and cross-country analyses; market trend and scenario planning analyses, analyst presentations, and strategic recommendations and advice

Market Segment Profiles

Deep dives on optical networking segments, for example metro WDM, DWDM backbone, aggregation and bandwidth management, plus application segments including carrier Ethernet and converged packet optical (CPO)


OVUM TELECOMS CONTENT 2010

Market Share Reporting

Quarterly market share reporting on the broadband access (DSL, CMTS, FTTx), optical components, optical networks, and switching and routing markets consisting of Market Alerts with top-line preliminary results followed by complete spreadsheets and reports providing analysis and insight on the quarter’s results. Market share is also reported and analysed on an annual basis

Quarterly Industry Results Tracking

Quarterly tracking of operator financials, contracts, and deals, including publication of contracts and deals database updates, PowerPoint presentations on operator financial health, and spreadsheets on operator revenues and capex. Also includes quarterly shipments of Open Mobile Alliance firmware and software, and a quarterly equipment vendor update reviewing trends in fixed network equipment spending

Research Briefs Short reports and articles analyzing market events, industry trends and vendor news

Surveys Surveys and analysis of service providers and equipment vendors (as customers), plus consumer and enterprise end users’ adoption and use of telecoms technology and services

Trackers Regularly updated tracking and key performance metrics for new service, product, technology and competitive trends in key telecoms market segments including consumer technology and service trackers, enterprise managed services contracts

Vendor Contracts Database

Ovum’s database of vendor contracts for telecom product categories including access, data networking, IP infrastructure, IPTV, managed network services, optical networking, outside plant, software, switches, VOD, Voice-over-cable, VoIP, and wireless


SPECIALIST CONSULTING


OVUM TELECOMS CONSULTING

Through a variety of tailored engagements and projects, Ovum Telecoms analysts—representing the top thought leadership in the industry—work as cabinet-level advisors to clients to help you understand, digest and act on disruptive market forces

• Analysing vertical industry go-to-market strategy and messaging and making actionable recommendations for creating more effective solution packaging, value propositions and partnership strategies

• Custom market forecasting, vendor share, market sizing and segmentation, and key performance indicator analysis

• Due diligence research and analysis; expert industry opinion or analysis for legal support, market proposition validation, assessments, and developing business cases for emerging technologies

• Customer demand, competitive benchmark, supplier performance and regulatory analysis

• Executive strategy sessions including proofing executive briefing materials for use in customer campaigns, product launches, and media and analyst tours

• Facilitating executive strategic planning sessions

• Evaluating customer feature, function and investment priorities

• In-house sales training webinars around markets, customers and the competitive environment

• Customer-facing presentations, webinars, or papers on industry trends and dynamics to support events and client initiatives

Ovum regularly assists our clients with:


THANK YOU

For more information about Ovum Telecoms, please contact us at [email protected]

Ovum Telecom Advisory Overview General

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