Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook...
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Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra, Australia March 2, 2011
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Transcript of Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook...
Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011
Presented ByShayle D. Shagam
World Agricultural Outlook BoardU.S. Department of Agriculture
Outlook 2011Canberra, Australia
March 2, 2011
Situation Facing Livestock and Poultry Producers in 2011
• Higher feed prices– Corn: $5.60/bu in 2011/12
$5.05-$5.75/bu in 2010/11 $3.55 in 2009/2010
– Soybean meal: $360/short ton
$340-380/ton in 2010/11 $311 in 2009/2010
• Shrinking returns
Higher Feed Bites into Gains in Livestock and Poultry Prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011*
Rat
io
Cattle/Corn Hog/Corn Broiler/Feed* Forecast
Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011
• Offsetting meat production– Beef, lamb & mutton, and turkey lower– Pork and broilers higher
Red Meat and Poultry Production Will Increase 0.1 Percent in 2011
05
101520
2530354045
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Mil
lion
met
ric
tons
.
Poultry Beef Pork Other * Forecast
Total Meat Production Fractionally Higher in 2011
Million metric tons 2010 2011 % Change
Beef 11.938 11.755 -1.5
Pork 10.177 10.219 0.4
Broiler Meat 16.739 16.919 1.1
Total Red Meat And Poultry 41.777 41.804 0.1
Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011
• Offsetting meat production
• Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports– Rising incomes fuel increased demand for
meat protein – Relatively weak U.S. dollar will support meat
exports– Trade issues remain irritants
Million metric tons 2010 2011 % Change
Beef 1.043 1.064 2.0
Pork 1.917 2.121 10.6
Broiler Meat 3.072 3.016 -1.8
Red Meat Exports Higher in 2011
Red Meat Exports Represent Increasing Share of Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011*
Per
cen
t
Beef Pork Broilers* Forecast
Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011
• Offsetting meat production
• Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports
• Domestic supply impacts mixed– Larger broiler meat net supplies– Smaller beef, pork, and turkey net supplies
Total Per Capita Retail Basis Meat Disappearance in 2011 at about 94 Kilos
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*
Kil
ogra
ms
per
cap
ita
Beef Pork Broilers* Forecast
Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011
• Offsetting meat production
• Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports
• Domestic supply impacts mixed
• Gradual economic improvement– U.S. GDP growth about 3 percent– Unemployment gradually declining
2010 2011 % Change*
Cattle, $/cwt
($/100kg)95.38(43.26)
102-109(46-49)
10.3
Hogs, $/cwt
($/100kg)55.06(24.97)
58-61(26-28)
8.1
12-City Broilers, ¢/lb
(¢/kg)
82.9(37.6)
80-85(36-39)
-0.5
Livestock & Poultry Prices Mostly Higher in 2011
* At midpoint
Despite Price Increase, Chicken Will Maintain Pricing Advantage at Retail
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011*
Ret
ail
Pri
ce R
atio
s
Beef/Chicken Beef/Pork Pork/Chicken
* Forecast
Cattle Herd at 92.6 Million on Jan 1, 2011; Further Contraction Likely
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
*
Mil
lio
n H
ead
* Forecast
Beef Cows 1 Percent Lower Jan. 1, 2011. Calf Crop Declines in 2010
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011*
Beef Cows Calf Crop
Mil
lion
Hea
d
* Forecast Calf Crop
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Outside Feedlots On-Feed
Cattle for Feeding Lower on January 1M
illi
on H
ead
-3.3%
+2.8%
-1.3%
Cow Slaughter Will Decline In 2011
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Beef Dairy Total
* Forecast
Mil
lio
n H
ead
Cattle Imports Decline to 2.1 Million Head In 2011
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Canada Mexico Total
* Forecast
Mil
lion
Hea
d
Herds in Canada and Mexico Shrink
Cattle and Calves January 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Canada Mexico
Mil
lio
n H
ead
Average Cattle Carcass Weights Near Record in 2011
325
330
335
340
345
350
355
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
* Forecast
Kil
og
ram
s
Beef Exports Increase 2 PercentBeef Imports Increase 4 Percent
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Exports Imports
* Forecast
Mil
lio
n m
etri
c to
ns
2010 Exports Higher to Several Major Markets
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Mill
ion
met
ric t
ons
Mexico Canada Japan South Korea Vietnam Other
* Forecast
Additional information about the 2011 outlook is available at the following websites:
• World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates– www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm
• Economic Research Service (ERS)Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook– www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/
• Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade– www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp
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